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Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 27 Tzmaster90


    This is what I have come up with after the usual process. The mid-November update might be more than just a tweak this time, I could see this going several different ways as there are some unusual synoptics in various regions of the hemisphere. But the emphasis in my research study was on high-energy events. I don't think low pressure areas this winter will be fooling around, they are going to be packed with energy and moisture compared to some winters. Possibly 2013-14 is somewhat of an analogue, although I would say, shifted a bit south of that onslaught of storms. This is copied from my post on Net-weather which explains a Britain and Ireland focus in the wording.

    The following is a preliminary long-range forecast for winter 2019-20, If it seems necessary, I will amend or update this forecast in mid-November.

    This appears likely to be a season where high energy weather events will be grappling with a fairly robust supply of colder air at high latitudes.

    Britain and Ireland can expect a very unsettled winter with frequent low pressure systems steered by a strong jet stream running a little south of its average position.

    This favours a split north-south outcome where the south is often on the milder side of the storm track getting strong southwest winds and rain, while the north is more open to snow, ice and easterly winds.

    The north-south divide may be enhanced by the likely appearance of strong blocking highs over eastern Scandinavia and western Russia. I don't think these are going to dominate the circulation but they will come into conflict with the zonal regime at times, forcing it to dive southeast around 5-10W and into France and the western Mediterranean. This may be another winter of heavy Alpine snowfalls and frequent severe cold spells in Germany and possibly Belgium and Netherlands into northeast France.

    Battleground conditions seem likely at times across southeast England into Wales and central to northern Ireland. Frequent snow events may occur in northern and even central England, and southern Scotland, also Northern Ireland and some adjacent parts of the Republic of Ireland.

    Some heavy precipitation is likely in this scenario, heavy rain in most cases in southern England, especially the southwest, and the southern third of Ireland (Munster and south Leinster).

    A set-up like this may not remain steady-state, but could fluctuate north-south bringing the milder conditions further north at times, while setting the battleground further south at other times. However, the tendency will be for temperatures to average closer to normal or above in the southwest, and below normal in Scotland.

    This pattern could evolve into a colder February or even March if the strong jet stream loses energy, then the blocking may be able to assert more control.

    North America can expect a rather harsh winter in general, with severe cold waves at times, colliding with an active storm track from Texas northeast towards Virginia and southeastern New England. There could therefore be heavier than average snowfalls in the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and inland Mid-Atlantic to northeastern states. A pattern like this would not rule out one or two coastal blizzards in the mix. The west will be dominated by persistent cold high pressure trapped in valleys, and coastal areas will have a fairly average winter with a lot of rain, low cloud and moderate southeast winds. Snow on western mountains will be generally a bit above average but might be twice normal in the southern Rockies and northern Arizona around Flagstaff. Drought will break during the winter for California.

    This may also be one of those winters where extreme cold moves south from Siberia into China, Korea and Japan.


    Here it is


  • Registered Users Posts: 27 Tzmaster90


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    I stand by my point. Is there merit in doing them to try and improve the accuracy going forward? Absolutely. But in terms of accuracy they're rubbish.
    I do like them trying to improve accuracy but weather always changes can't hurt for them to throw in a educated Guess i Don't see M.T Saying this is 100 percent going to happen


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Loughc wrote: »
    Mild, Wet, Windy. /End

    Thank you


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note: Off topic posts removed. Stay on topic. Keep it civil. Adhere to the forum charter. Back on track to Winter discussion.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note:

    Tzmaster90 , Your post was removed ,need to cease the back seat modding, read the forum charter before posting again please.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,506 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal and Mayo
    South to southwest winds will strengthen during Thursday reaching mean speeds of 50-65km/h with gusts of 90-100km/h.

    Valid: Thursday 05 December 2019 07:00 to Thursday 05 December 2019 18:00

    Issued: Wednesday 04 December 2019 15:00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Tzmaster90 wrote: »
    Here it is

    Looking very accurate going by today's models. Yesterday's dream charts have been well and truly binned. US going in the freezer. Jet stream firing up. Sad times :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Irish snowman


  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Carol25


    So far I’m actually happy with how this winter is playing out in the west. Lots of cold frosty days, clear skies. Some deluges for a few days but then back to cold and frosty again. This pic is from Sunday looking at Christmas trees 🎄.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A damp dark windy morning here in Castlebar and its not going to change much for the day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,506 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    A damp dark windy morning here in Castlebar and its not going to change much for the day.

    I have a feeling there will not be much of a change for another week at least.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,506 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    Over 20mm of rain now in Castlebar, the Atlantic is starting to make up for the less than average rainfall we received in November.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,974 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Xenji wrote: »
    I have a feeling there will not be much of a change for another week at least.

    Another month I reckon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    dark clouds all day in cork city and windy aswell. Been dry though, some spots of rain but still dry


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    Xenji wrote: »
    Over 20mm of rain now in Castlebar, the Atlantic is starting to make up for the less than average rainfall we received in November.

    Jesus I thought November would have been one of the wettest months of the year. Mad how we perceive weather compared to the stats


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Goldfinch8


    A dirty day alright in Mayo. Sheets of driving rain and mist throughout the day. Wind also up a few more notches this evening. Afternoon caved in very quickly to darkness.
    11c.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27 Tzmaster90


    Loughc wrote: »
    Another month I reckon.
    Yes here's to most hoping your Wrong:P


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Loughc wrote: »
    Another month I reckon.

    unsettled or very unsettled conditions look locked in for the next 2 to possibly 3 weeks. Temperatures will alternate between mild, cool and cold between low pressure systems.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Gonzo wrote: »
    unsettled or very unsettled conditions look locked in for the next 2 to possibly 3 weeks. Temperatures will alternate between mild, cool and cold between low pressure systems.

    What would be considered standard winter weather to be honest.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Gonzo wrote: »
    unsettled or very unsettled conditions look locked in for the next 2 to possibly 3 weeks. Temperatures will alternate between mild, cool and cold between low pressure systems.

    The models were wrong about cold in the timeframe so why are they right now just because it's showing unsettled?


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    The models were wrong about cold in the timeframe so why are they right now just because it's showing unsettled?

    Probably because it's the norm/more usual weather!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    The models were wrong about cold in the timeframe so why are they right now just because it's showing unsettled?

    Because the weather showing for the next few weeks is Westerly based.
    This is the norm and with the charts showing that you could safely bet your house on it been right.
    The cold that was been predicted was always in doubt in my eyes it was too far out in fi , people we're talking about trends but in my opinion you would need to see the charts predict that cold for at least a week solid for it to even be a trend in my eyes.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    The models were wrong about cold in the timeframe so why are they right now just because it's showing unsettled?

    cross model agreement on an unsettled outlook in the short to medium term.
    This is the sort of weather we get nearly every winter.

    There will be mild days but there will also be cool or cold days. It won't be anywhere as mild as last December where 11 to 14C was common throughout the month.

    Plenty of wind and rain over the next few weeks, but also some wintryness at times during the cool intervals. Many of us could see snow flakes over the next 2 weeks but probably very little if any lying snow away from high ground.

    No sign of any Northern Blocking, positive AO+NAO.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,047 ✭✭✭appledrop


    US2 wrote: »
    Jesus I thought November would have been one of the wettest months of the year. Mad how we perceive weather compared to the stats

    It depends were you live. We had one of our Wettest Nov ever on record at over 170mm at Dublin airport. It was 230% more than average!


  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Carol25


    Carol25 wrote: »
    So far I’m actually happy with how this winter is playing out in the west. Lots of cold frosty days, clear skies. Some deluges for a few days but then back to cold and frosty again. This pic is from Sunday looking at Christmas trees 🎄.

    I see nature has a way of making this post null and void in a short space of time, oh well! Wet, dark and blustery today in Co. Galway and looking at the forecasts more to come!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Been awake 14 hours and it's been just drizzle the entire day in Galway. No let up whatsoever.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    13c at 10pm in Arklow, do we need to rename this thread,summers back


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    13c at 10pm in Arklow, do we need to rename this thread,summers back

    Greta will be happy no need for fires tonight so


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    13c at 10pm in Arklow, do we need to rename this thread,summers back

    I found today felt really cold, mostly because of the wind and drizzle. It does feel a bit milder now compared to earlier on in the day.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Goldfinch8


    Prolonged heavy showers here this morning. Miserable. Central Mayo. 8c.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Carol25


    Very nice day in Galway today, the calm before the storm perhaps. Dry, reasonably bright and no rain as yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,047 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Wind really starting to pick up here in North County Dublin. It's been a while since we had stormy night here I actually asked my husband what noise was at first!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,882 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Was a horrible day here, was at the meath game in navan and it felt baltic, straight home and lit the fire, currently bucketing down and very breezy


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Weather warning likely to be issued now for tonight and into tomorrow

    Tuesday will be a blustery day with strong winds and very gusty conditions associated with an active front moving eastwards across the country. Generally, winds will be below warning thresholds but damage to some structures and trees, already weakened from the effects of Storm Atiyah, is possible.

    Rain and showers will be heavy at times as well, especially in Atlantic coastal counties.

    Valid: Tuesday 10 December 2019 04:00 to Tuesday 10 December 2019 16:00

    Issued: Monday 09 December 2019 11:00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    So enjoying the idyllic calm and sunshine today. Disarmingly lovely out here!

    West Mayo offshore .


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Weather warning likely to be issued now for tonight and into tomorrow

    Tuesday will be a blustery day with strong winds and very gusty conditions associated with an active front moving eastwards across the country. Generally, winds will be below warning thresholds but damage to some structures and trees, already weakened from the effects of Storm Atiyah, is possible.

    Rain and showers will be heavy at times as well, especially in Atlantic coastal counties.

    Valid: Tuesday 10 December 2019 04:00 to Tuesday 10 December 2019 16:00

    Issued: Monday 09 December 2019 11:00


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭HighLine


    Thursday night/Friday morning also does not look great.

    ukgust.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Hearing the first tentative sighs of wind... Caught some sleep earlier in preparation.

    What would we do without some warning. ... lol

    west mayo offshore island


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Lovely break from the rubbish weather today with plenty of sunshine in Dublin. Pic during afterglow at Killiney Hill.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,055 ✭✭✭Emme


    Is it just me or has 2019 had the most depressing miserable weather for years? I don't remember anything like it. I'm old enough to remember 1985 and 1986 and they didn't seem to be this bad for so long. At least the bad weather didn't seem to drag on forever with no let up in sight save for an hour here and there. The ground is so wet, it's so dull. I thought we might get some respite with December, some crisp frosty but sunny days. No such luck, it's more grey skies, rain and wind. A horrible year for farmers and anyone who works outdoors.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    press.png

    The definition of a "ridge"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Emme wrote: »
    Is it just me or has 2019 had the most depressing miserable weather for years? I don't remember anything like it. I'm old enough to remember 1985 and 1986 and they didn't seem to be this bad for so long. At least the bad weather didn't seem to drag on forever with no let up in sight save for an hour here and there. The ground is so wet, it's so dull. I thought we might get some respite with December, some crisp frosty but sunny days. No such luck, it's more grey skies, rain and wind. A horrible year for farmers and anyone who works outdoors.

    Recency bias, it's winter in Ireland, it's always this crap.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Emme wrote: »
    Is it just me or has 2019 had the most depressing miserable weather for years? I don't remember anything like it. I'm old enough to remember 1985 and 1986 and they didn't seem to be this bad for so long. At least the bad weather didn't seem to drag on forever with no let up in sight save for an hour here and there. The ground is so wet, it's so dull. I thought we might get some respite with December, some crisp frosty but sunny days. No such luck, it's more grey skies, rain and wind. A horrible year for farmers and anyone who works outdoors.

    We had 7hrs 45mins of sunshine today, about as much as you can literally squeeze out of an early December day at these latitudes.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Emme wrote: »
    Is it just me or has 2019 had the most depressing miserable weather for years? I don't remember anything like it. I'm old enough to remember 1985 and 1986 and they didn't seem to be this bad for so long.

    I've talked about this at various times, especially over the past 2 months, but yes I would agree with this. Winter basically didn't happen last January or Febraury with some early summer conditions at the end of February, then the cold set in for Spring and lasted till the 3rd week of June!. Barely a flake of snow or a frost last winter. July was half decent then the deluges started in August and there has been barely any let up since. We missed out on all the heat that everywhere else got during summer and the Atlantic kept biting at our toes during summer.

    We've probably had less than 10 dry days since mid September, I've never seen such extensive water logging in my area till this year, most notably since September. I've never had to dig trenches before. I've never seen our road remain partially flooded for a couple of weeks until this Autumn. This year is probably my least favorite year for weather ever, certainly since I first starting posting on this forum about 15 years ago! 2020 can only be better!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Barely a flake of snow or a frost last winter.
    Eh, am I getting my years mixed up but was it not last year that The Beast from the East arrived in late February? AFAIK Emma was March so was Spring but the last day of meteorological winter had a very decent dumping of snow in South Meath. I'm North Kildare but only 3/4km from the Meath border. Or was Dunshaughlin a bit too far East and therefore too close to the sea, despite its half decent altitude of around 100m? I recall leaving work early (late morning) in Dublin city on the 28th of Feb as the snow was coming down thick and fast. I could not imagine that the same conditions, if not worse, were not occurring further inland, at higher elevation and with little or no urban heat Island effect at play.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    highdef wrote: »
    Eh, am I getting my years mixed up but was it not last year that The Beast from the East arrived in late February? AFAIK Emma was March so was Spring but the last day of meteorological winter had a very decent dumping of snow in South Meath. I'm North Kildare but only 3/4km from the Meath border. Or was Dunshaughlin a bit too far East and therefore too close to the sea, despite its half decent altitude of around 100m? I recall leaving work early (late morning) in Dublin city on the 28th of Feb as the snow was coming down thick and fast. I could not imagine that the same conditions, if not worse, were not occurring further inland, at higher elevation and with little or no urban heat Island effect at play.

    That was 2017/18. Gonzo is referring to the winter just gone, 2018/19, which was the mildest on record for several long-term stations including Phoenix Park and Valentia Observatory.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    highdef wrote: »
    Eh, am I getting my years mixed up but was it not last year that The Beast from the East arrived in late February? AFAIK Emma was March so was Spring but the last day of meteorological winter had a very decent dumping of snow in South Meath. I'm North Kildare but only 3/4km from the Meath border. Or was Dunshaughlin a bit too far East and therefore too close to the sea, despite its half decent altitude of around 100m? I recall leaving work early (late morning) in Dublin city on the 28th of Feb as the snow was coming down thick and fast. I could not imagine that the same conditions, if not worse, were not occurring further inland, at higher elevation and with little or no urban heat Island effect at play.

    The Beast/Emma was 2018, same year the lovely heatwave summer of 2018. 2018 was a fantastic year for weather in general, lovely autumn too. This year 2019 has been the complete opposite.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Gonzo wrote: »
    The Beast/Emma was 2018, same year the lovely heatwave summer of 2018. 2018 was a fantastic year for weather in general, lovely autumn too. This year 2019 has been the complete opposite.

    Huge thunderstorms in Cork too, and Ophelia in Oct 2017. It'll be hard to top that 10 months for getting lots of extremes so close together.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    Huge thunderstorms in Cork too, and Ophelia in Oct 2017. It'll be hard to top that 10 months for getting lots of extremes so close together.

    we've certainly been paying dearly for the wonderful 2018 with this year. Hopefully 2020 is more kind to us and more interesting!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,506 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    Spare a thought for those who missed out on Ophelia and Emma and have to go back to the 19th of July 2017 for some proper extreme weather and about 40 minutes worth on the 3rd of January 2018 :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    2017/2018 really was eventful for us in cork anyway at least. Ophelia, snow shield dropped for a while and a big ol thunderstorm, biggest in years. Brilliant and I miss it


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