Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Friday, 6 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 March 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal, with a colder turn likely near the end of the weekly interval.
-- Rainfalls may average near or slightly above normal in parts of the north, to perhaps 50% of normal in the south.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather windy and cold, northwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, and a few showers, turning wintry on hills in the north. There will be limited sunshine but some brighter intervals will develop, and the winds will tend to diminish by afternoon, backing to westerly. Highs around 8 C.

TONIGHT will start out chilly but with cloud and winds increasing, milder temperatures will appear before morning. Lows -1 to +3 C with rising temperatures after midnight.

SATURDAY will be rather windy and milder, with intervals of rain spreading from west to east. About 10-15 mm rain can be expected in the west and north, to perhaps 5 mm in parts of the southeast. Winds increasing to southwest 70-110 km/hr. Some very strong gusts in exposed areas and in particular on hills in the southwest. Highs 9 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will start out with blustery showers followed by clearing skies for a while, then a new round of scattered showers, some turning a bit wintry on higher ground by afternoon. Westerly winds about 50 to 80 km/hr and temperatures steady around 7 C.

MONDAY will see a return of milder air, although it may have some trouble pushing colder air out of parts of Ulster. This will mean rainfall that is fairly widespread across the north may start out sleety or with a rain-snow mixture for a while. Elsewhere the milder air will have no problems taking over, highs will reach 12 to 14 C. Winds west-southwest about 50 to 80 km/hr with higher gusts near Atlantic coasts.

TUESDAY will become windy and possibly very windy for a time during the afternoon, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr at least. Occasional rain or showers may become squally. Temperatures steady in the range of 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will turn quite cold again with occasional sunny breaks and scattered wintry showers, westerly winds of moderate strength, and highs only around 5 or 6 C, with slight frosts returning.

The further outlook is for these typical March oscillations in temperature to continue for another week beyond the end of next week.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and a bit milder again with highs near 6 C. The storm due into the region north of Ireland by Monday is getting started overnight east of the Carolinas and may brush parts of Massachusetts with a brief snowfall of 5-10 cms, but will not have much impact elsewhere in the northeast U.S. ... a weaker system near the lower Great Lakes will bring scattered snow or sleet in small quantities to higher parts of PA and NY.

Saturday, 7 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 March 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal, but with the first half being about 2 deg above average, the second half that much below average.
-- Rainfall will average around normal or slightly above in some parts of the north, to perhaps 50% of normal in the southeast.
-- Sunshine will average a little below normal values for mid-March.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and milder with occasional rain in the west and north mostly. There will be longer dry intervals in the south and east, but mainly overcast skies. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr with some higher gusts near Atlantic coast and very strong winds on hills in western counties. Highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will continue windy with occasional rain tapering to showers, lows near 6 C.

SUNDAY will have a few squally showers around with variable cloud and some brief sunny intervals in moderate westerly winds, becoming quite strong again by afternoon and evening in parts of Connacht and west Ulster where there could be gusts to 110 km/hr. Highs will be around 8 C. The north and east will turn quite cold for the evening and part of the overnight period.

MONDAY after some early morning sleet or snow in a few northern areas, rain will push in from the Atlantic during the morning and it will turn considerably milder in many areas. Ulster may take longer to warm up, but otherwise highs should reach about 12 to 15 C in moderate to strong southwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr.

TUESDAY will be breezy, somewhat colder, with passing showers. There may be an interval of stronger winds by late in the day. Lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be quite cold, with the risk of wintry showers. Breezy to windy at times with highs only 5 or 6 C and slight frosts at night.

Watching a system due in around FRIDAY morning that will not be very much above freezing on the track it is taking, for the potential of some snow or sleet in parts of the south and central counties, but sometimes these situations modify enough that a cold rain is the actual outcome, so just something to watch at this point. Temperatures will probably remain on the cold side until the following week when they may start to warm up rather steadily.

My local weather on Friday was dull and rather cool with sprinkles of sleety rain but no real accumulation, highs near 3 C. At this time, Cape Cod is getting raked by strong winds and blowing snow from the strong low well out to sea, that is headed for Iceland by about Monday, and bringing the second wave of mild temperatures and rain for later Monday in Ireland. The low is not close enough to the U.S. mainland to bring most places a very heavy snowfall but that is probably happening a few miles out to sea. It will also miss most parts of Atlantic Canada and be somewhat weaker when it passes Newfoundland on Saturday night.

Monday, 9 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 March, 2020

-- Temperatures, rainfall and sunshine are all likely to end up close to average for this time of year.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become quite windy and milder with rain, more persistent in the west and north, just intermittent for parts of the east and south. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr and highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will continue breezy and mild with a little more rain at times, temperatures steady near 10 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy and just slightly cooler with passing showers, moderate southwest winds, and highs 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will become windy and turn several degrees colder with more passing showers, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, with lows near 5 C and highs near 8 C.

THURSDAY will be cold and windy with passing showers, some of them becoming wintry especially over higher parts of the north and west. Winds west to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr and highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY will see a gradual shift back to milder temperatures and occasional light rain with highs near 10 C.

Next WEEKEND, Saturday looks somewhat milder again with rain at times, highs near 12 C. Sunday will turn colder with showers and highs around 9 C.

The outlook for the following week is rather tentative, with indications of a more settled trend, after perhaps a rather cold start, milder but possibly dry if rather cloudy in a southeasterly wind flow, temperatures could be into the mid-teens at times around or shortly after the 17th.

My local weather brought some wet snow in the morning and a rather cloudy and foggy finish to the day, temperatures near 2 C.

Wednesday, 11 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 March

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will also be near average, possibly up to 25% above normal in south and east as they see as much as normally wetter west.
-- Sunshine will be running behind and trying to catch up to normal on Tuesday 17th.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... In Leinster, expect a blustery shower to roll through soon, this has already cleared through most of Munster and all of Connacht and Ulster. What follows is a partly cloudy and windy regime with further showers likely to develop in southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs will reach about 9 C but it will start to feel quite cold this afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Windy and cold with a few passing showers, squally at times in counties around Donegal Bay where winds could be stronger too, generally southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr but in a few spots in the northwest peaking at 70 to 110 km/hr.

THURSDAY will be windy and cold with passing showers, some with hail and thunder. A wintry mix is likely on higher terrain in Connacht and west Ulster. Highs only 4 to 7 C, colder values in the north. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts near Donegal Bay.

FRIDAY will see milder temperatures return, but with a band of rain that is now looking a bit more persistent and able to produce 10-20 mm for parts of the south and east as it moves through around mid-day to afternoon. Some partly cloudy skies may follow into west Munster and parts of Connacht. Morning lows near 3 C and afternoon highs 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and some outbreaks of light rain likely to become stronger when they reach central counties, with risk of a local thunderstorm. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY will start to turn colder in west to northwest winds, with occasional rain and highs near 8 C.

MONDAY will clear to partly cloudy skies and highs around 10 C.

TUESDAY could also see some sunny intervals and highs around 11 or 12 C.

The OUTLOOK is for a more settled weather regime than recently, although with some cloud and occasional minor interruptions by rain showers, and near normal temperatures. The longer term models suggest this dry interval may turn even milder for a day or two, then give way to colder weather from the east -- I think there's some chance the mild will like it enough to stick around and keep the cold at bay.

My local weather produced chaos on the roads, luckily we had no travel plans so only heard about that second-hand, as wet snow fell most of the morning to produce a fresh 5-10 cm cover that apparently turned to ice on the hill up into our town from the nearby valley. Our high was probably a bit above freezing by afternoon.

Stay well, that's the main plan around here too. We have roughly the same situation as I am hearing about in Ireland, what you might call intermediate health alerts. On the other hand, we already have summer time (changed the clocks in other words) for what little good that will do us in winter weather.

Friday, 13 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 March 2020

-- Temperatures will be near average for this time of year, starting to fall a bit later next week.
-- Rainfall will be 75 to 100 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out dry but cloudy, then some rain will spread into Munster this morning and reach other parts of the country by mid-day to afternoon. Amounts of 10-15 mm are possible, especially just inland from the south coast. A partial clearance will follow the rain into some western counties before sunset. Highs 9 to 12 C. It is not likely to get very windy with this disturbance, just a few moderate gusts near some coasts.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing and chilly temperatures just above freezing, with some fog patches, lows 1 to 4 C.

SATURDAY will have an increase in cloud and back to some showery rain that may become rather heavy in a few spots by afternoon, south winds at 30 to 50 km/hr and highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY will turn colder with variable amounts of cloud and passing showers with west to northwest breezes 40 to 60 km/hr. Morning lows about 5 C and afternoon highs 8 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with a few brighter intervals early in the day, some rain developing, mild with highs 12 to 15 C.

The models have begun to indicate that colder air may win the battle later next week, but I am not totally sold on this as we have seen a couple of reversals already and who knows if there might not be another one to follow? For what it's worth, some forecast models are showing temperatures dropping quite low for a few days around the 20th to 25th with some potential for local snow showers. We will continue to monitor and assess how likely this actually is.

My local weather was partly cloudy with highs around 4 C. Being this far from large urban centres, the pandemic situation around here is mostly wait and see, there seems to be little spread of it here yet. Hope you are all well and coping. This has had the effect of cancelling our planned two week disappearance into the back country down south (can't be too sure the borders will remain open for one thing) so the silver lining is, more forecasts and less spending of money. But I'm going to miss the back country.

Sunday, 15 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 March, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal, mainly due to cold days around the end of the interval.
-- Rainfall will average about 50% of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy, cool, with bands of showers likely, so some places will have more persistent rainfall than others, as these bands feed southeast from the Atlantic into the midlands. Winds veering to west and then northwest 40 to 70 km/hr will be gusty at times, highs 6 to 8 C.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy and cold with isolated wintry showers dying out. Lows 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated remnants of the shower bands dying out, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY 17th will be mostly cloudy and rather mild with dry conditions for part of the day, turning to steady rain by mid-afternoon in parts of Connacht and Ulster, and by evening elsewhere. Lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring this band of rain further south and it may begin to turn to sleet or wet snow in parts of the north as a second and stronger disturbance forms there. Temperatures will be steadily falling from near 10 C in the south and 5 C north, to lower values around 2 to 4 C. There is some risk of snowfall accumulations in parts of Ulster, higher parts of Connacht and a few inland areas of north Leinster. This could stretch through the overnight period into early Thursday.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy to sunny but cold, with morning frosts and daytime temperatures 4 to 7 C. There could be some isolated outbreaks of snow or sleet in parts of the north, and we are monitoring for any extensions of that into Leinster (not indicated yet in the guidance though).

FRIDAY will continue rather cold and mostly cloudy with sleet or light rain in some places, as weak warm fronts develop and move west. Temperatures may start out near or below freezing, then rise gradually towards 5 C.

The OUTLOOK is highly uncertain but a lot of guidance shows milder air working around the cold high pressure to replace the colder air eventually and bring temperatures up towards 10-13 C towards the weekend of 21st-22nd or early in the following week.

My local weather was unseasonably cold with a bit of light snow slowly clearing to partly cloudy skies, with a brisk northeast wind and temperatures in the range of -8 to -5 C. Nights will get as cold as -15 C before we see much moderation of this arctic air mass.

Monday, 16 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 March, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, although most of that will come as a result of very cold days around Thursday and Friday.
-- Rainfall will average about half the normal amount, mostly falling in one event on Tuesday into Wednesday.
-- Sunshine will average about the usual 3.0 to 3.5 hours a day for this part of the month.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be a generally dry day with increasing high cloud dimming the sunshine by mid-day and afternoon. Some patchy light rain could develop for some northwestern counties later in the day. Highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will see clouds thickening with occasional light rain in the west and north, mild with lows 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY 17th will be a rather cloudy but mild day with outbreaks of rain mainly confined to Connacht and Ulster at first, then spreading further south and east by evening. Highs 12 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will see the rain moving south and possibly mixing with wet snow or changing to a sleety wintry mix for a while, before clearing further south. Morning lows 2 to 4 C and temperatures only coming up a few degrees if at all after that.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and cold with the risk of isolated wintry showers, more likely near the south and east coasts and some distance inland. Quite a few places will likely escape this and remain dry. Lows -4 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, still some risk of isolated wintry showers but with a milder turn later in the day, any localized showers would likely turn back to rain. Morning lows -3 to +1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

The OUTLOOK is for milder weather to return and it could turn quite warm at times in the final week of the month.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and cold with temperatures well below freezing. Still clear and frosty at midnight local time here, and around -12 C.

Wednesday, 18 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 March 2020

-- The week will be generally rather cold (2 deg below average), dry and with a near normal division of cloud and sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy in central counties, more overcast to the north and south, where two separate and weakening frontal bands will drop light rain at times. In the north it will be cold enough for this rain to turn to sleet or wet snow later in the day, that is not expected with the southern band which will weaken and fragment to a few showers. Eventually a few brighter intervals will appear in the south too. Highs generally in the range of 6 to 9 C but closer to 4 or 5 in some parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing and frost will develop with lows -4 to +1 C.

THURSDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, rather cold with east to northeast breezes. Some outbreaks of sleety light rain or mixed rain and snow could fall at times in Ulster. Highs 5 to 8 C.

FRIDAY will be a somewhat milder day after another frosty start, lows -4 to +1 C, highs 8 to 11 C mildest in Atlantic coastal counties. There should be some sunshine at times in most regions.

SATURDAY will be rather cloudy with areas of rain brushing the southwest coasts, possibly making some inroads further into Munster around the afternoon, but it may stay dry elsewhere, if rather overcast. Lows near 2 C and highs 5 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and a bit milder again, highs 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY should turn even milder in a weak southerly flow, some rain may brush the west and north coasts, highs 12 to 15 C.

Then the OUTLOOK for next week calls for a partial reloading of the cold high pressure but it may be a rather subtle change and with the growing power of the sun, highs may not fall much below 10 C as the slightly cooler northeast winds set in.

My local weather remained mostly clear and reasonably mild in the daytime (5-8 C) but quite cold at night (-5 to -8 C). If you get a clear evening, you can easily spot Venus very bright in the southwest after sunset. Meanwhile, Jupiter and Saturn are starting their big show for later this year, with the pre-dawn hours the only time they can be seen presently. Mars is also in the general vicinity in the pre-dawn skies. By this summer Jupiter and Saturn will be closing in on a very close conjunction (as seen from earth, they never actually get any closer than we are to Jupiter). That will be visible in midnight skies by around May and in the evening skies by the summer months. Faster moving Mars pulls away and won't be all that close by the main event, rising late in the evening by summer. As this event draws closer, I will post more details about when the closest conjunction takes place. But you can estimate it will be around late autumn, because we pass Jupiter on the inside track around July 14 and Saturn around July 20 of this year. With Jupiter moving faster in its orbit than Saturn, it won't take long for them to reach the same vector (allowing for the fact we have moved on a bit, their closest to a "sun-centered" conjunction will be a few days before we observe it from earth).

Friday, 20 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


Trends for the week of 20 to 26 March, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average near or slightly above normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cool but pleasant after the morning chill fades. A persistent east to northeast wind may feel rather cold near the Irish Sea coastline, temperatures will be just slightly cooler (if at all) but with a less noticeable breeze further inland and on the west coast, it will feel more pleasant. Highs around 9 C east to 12 C west.

TONIGHT will see more cloud than recent nights especially in the south, central and western counties, and this will keep temperatures above freezing there (lows 3 to 6 C). It could still get a bit frosty in parts of Ulster, northeast Connacht and north Leinster with lows there about -2 C.

SATURDAY will become overcast for most areas, although the sun could break through at times. Rain will be massing off the south coast and moving past Kerry where it could come inland for a time, then up the west coast. Not absolutely certain to rain in many areas but could produce a few intervals of light rain or drizzle, measurable amounts more likely on outer headlands and the Kerry peninsulas. Rather chilly and raw as winds will increase somewhat without bringing in any milder air, highs still 6 to 9 C for most, but feeling colder than today for many areas.

SUNDAY will be back to a more tranquil phase of this blocking pattern (and hurray for it, nobody needs any rain at this point, would suspect), with morning lows around freezing as cloud breaks just before sunrise, then daytime highs under partly cloudy skies near 10 C.

MONDAY will be even milder as more of a south to southwest flow develops, still partly cloudy for most, cloud and light rain possible in some parts of Mayo and Donegal. Highs around 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY now expected to see little change as fronts are slowing down, so partly cloudy and around 13 C with rain later in the day for some western and northern counties.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY look complicated -- the flow goes back to easterly and some disturbances form attempting to produce steady rain but they may remain a bit offshore to the south. Can't really get too specific this far out on how this will actually pan out, could be just a continuation of the dry and near normal temperatures theme, or could be somewhat more unsettled than that.

My local weather was once again sunny and pleasant with a high of 10 C. It would be great weather to sit on a patio but ... either they are closed, or covered in the winter's snow if in the shade. We have lost perhaps half our snow cover this last week, but in shady or wooded areas there is still a fairly robust snow pack of 30-50 cms. South facing slopes are bare and even showing some signs of early spring, while north facing slopes are still snow covered.

Apparently spring has already begun in astronomical terms, the fact that 2000 was a leap year (unlike three quarters of years that end in 00) has the effect of bringing dates earlier in the following century and they get particularly early in leap years (because today would be March 21st in a non-leap year). So spring officially arrived at 0349h UT (the time currently on clocks in Ireland) and every four years it arrives about a half hour earlier. Later this century, there will be leap years with spring equinox dates of March 19th in UT (we have had one here in our time zone due to the seven hour time difference each leap year since about 1992). This is why three leap years have to be cancelled every four hundred years, to keep jogging the slow forward drift of the calendar back to a reset position.

Sunday, 22 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 March

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, coldest near end of the interval.
-- Rainfall will average near or less than half of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, with longer sunny intervals in central and eastern counties, and still feeling a bit cool but with relatively light breezes for most places, feeling warmer than yesterday with highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly clear with scattered frost inland, lows -3 to +2 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with southerly breezes and highs near 13 C. Once again, more chance of cloud near the west coast.

TUESDAY will continue partly cloudy and mild with a slow-moving band of rain edging into western counties but making little further progress east. Highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will see that rain starting to move a bit faster to the east although tending to dissipate gradually in amounts as it reaches Leinster and east Munster. Continued rather mild ahead of the rain (near 13 C) and turning slightly cooler in the west as winds turn more northerly there (to around 9 C).

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and colder with northerly breezes and highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY will be windy and cold with a risk of wintry showers in parts of the north and east. Highs only 5 to 8 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for this colder spell to continue for several days, then a slow warming trend again with readings back into the mid-teens by the end of the week of 30th March to 3rd of April and into the weekend of 4th-5th April.

My local weather continued sunny and even milder with highs near 14 C, clear at night bringing sub-freezing temperatures. Saturday was the first day since last autumn that I ventured out of the house without a jacket. Things continue very quiet here on both the COVID-19 and business fronts, which is at least partly good news.

Monday, 23 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 March, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal (the first 2-3 days near normal, then 4-6 below).
-- Rainfall will average about 25% of normal, except for patchy 50-75 per cent returns in west Mayo and Donegal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy and mild with southerly breezes and highs near 13 C. Cloud will be thicker near the west coast producing a bit of light rain at times in west Mayo and Donegal and occasionally a bit further south and east but it should stay dry in the eastern half of the country and near the south coast.

TONIGHT will be overcast and mild with lows of 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will continue partly cloudy and mild with a slow-moving band of rain edging into western counties but making little further progress east. Highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will see that rain starting to move a bit faster to the east although tending to dissipate gradually in amounts as it reaches Leinster and east Munster. Continued rather mild ahead of the rain (near 13 C) and turning slightly cooler in the west as winds turn more northerly there (to around 9 C).

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and colder with northerly breezes and lows near 2 C, highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY will be windy and cold with a risk of wintry showers in parts of the north and east as winds become northeast 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs only 5 to 8 C with slight frosts returning.

The OUTLOOK for next weekend is for this cold spell to continue but then to be followed by a gradual return to more seasonable temperatures by about the middle of next week (1-3 April).

My local weather featured an increase in cloud and temperatures near 10 C.

Wednesday, 25 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 March 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal (about 5 deg below normal by this coming weekend).
-- Rainfall will average only 25% of normal, and that only if a somewhat uncertain outcome around Monday-Tuesday next week verifies.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be another rather mild day in most areas, with some brighter intervals developing, as cloud may decrease for a while -- the weak frontal band in the north and west has almost lost all of its energy and moisture now, so just a few sporadic intervals of drizzle or light rain may follow. Highs 13-15 C in most areas, 10-12 C in parts of the west and north.

TONIGHT will continue mild in the south and east with cloud and lows near 5 C. There will be some spotty light rain in the north and west and lows of 3 or 4 C.

THURSDAY will see somewhat colder air filtering in from the northeast, but the main push of cold air will be delayed to Friday. Relatively mild conditions may persist in the south central counties, with the slightly cooler conditions making slow progress down the east coast and across the midlands towards Clare and Galway. Temperatures will be in the range of 8 to 12 C from north to south. There could be spotty light rain in some north central counties but it will be generally dry elsewhere, if rather overcast.

FRIDAY will become sharply colder in a moderate northeast wind. Sunny with cloudy intervals, and lows near 2 C, highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY will be windy and cold with a slight risk of wintry showers. It appears that eastern Britain will absorb most of the available moisture for local snow or sleet showers, and by the time the winds reach Ireland, they will have dried out and would have to rely on picking up moisture from the Irish Sea, but the dynamics appear rather weak, so it will be just the odd isolated snow or sleet shower possibly reaching Wicklow or Dublin. Otherwise it will be a cold but dry day, morning lows near -2 C and afternoon highs near 6 C. Northeast winds of 40 to 60 km/hr are likely. We'll monitor this closely because it could eventually change to a more wintry outlook.

SUNDAY will continue quite breezy and cold with temperatures similar to Saturday, possibly a bit more cloud in the mix.

The OUTLOOK is for the week to start on the cold side, but by TUESDAY or WEDNESDAY a brief warming will take place with a frontal system cutting into the higher pressure from the west and allowing temperatures back up to near 10 C, with a bit of light rain, then an even colder outbreak is possible from the north, lasting several days towards the weekend of 4-5 April.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with occasional light snow that melted on contact with the ground. Temperatures were only around 2 degrees.

Friday, 27 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 27 March to 2 April, 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal, turning quite cold by the weekend.
-- Rainfall will average near zero for most places.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue the very slow cooling trend at least in most of the country, a few places in the inland south may remain rather mild for one more day. There will be a mix of sunny intervals and patchy low cloud, which may be more prevalent in some northern and western counties. Northeast breezes will become fresh and moderate by afternoon. Highs 9 to 12 C for most, 13 or 14 C is possible in a few sheltered spots (inland southeast being favoured).

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear, and rather cold. Lows will drop to about 2 C.

SATURDAY will become colder with northeast breezes of 40 to 70 km/hr adding to the chill factor, and highs will only recover a few degrees to around 7 or 8 C. Skies will be partly cloudy with about equal amounts of sunshine and cloud.

SUNDAY will also be breezy and cold but with a slight chance of morning wintry showers around the east coast. The morning may produce a bit of frost in sheltered inland locations, but with a fresh northeast to north wind there may be little frost in general even if temperatures drop a bit below zero. Lows around -2 C are possible. There may be a slight recovery in daytime temperatures in the western counties which could reach about 9 or 10 C. Elsewhere it will be closer to 7 C.

MONDAY will become cloudy with just occasional sunny breaks, but should remain dry. Lows near -2 C and highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy, and some isolated outbreaks of light rain may reach parts of Ulster, but otherwise it should remain dry elsewhere. Lows near 2 C and highs near 10 C.

The OUTLOOK for later in the week is little changed with a slight warming to about Thursday followed by another surge of colder air from a northerly source, then in the longer term it should get back to more seasonable early April type weather with a return to rain at times the price to pay for milder temperatures.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with highs near 8 C. There's a bit of a late winter storm forming over the plains states heading for the upper Great Lakes region and very warm temperatures have moved into the south central states and are headed towards the east coast of the U.S., with rain and thunderstorms likely with that.

Sunday, 29 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 29 March to 4 April 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 10 to 25 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cold with a moderate east to northeast breeze 50 to 70 km/hr, and a mixture of cloud and sunshine, with more chance for sunshine further west as the source of most of the cloud is either the Irish Sea, or leftover cloud that formed over the North Sea and remained intact after crossing Britain where one or two wintry showers could fall. Some isolated wintry showers (hail more likely than snow) could develop in parts of north Leinster and east Ulster. Highs about 8 to 11 C with the warmer readings likely to be in west Munster and coastal Connacht.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with longer clear intervals further west and in parts of the inland south, so frost might be a bit more likely there with lows in the range -2 to +3 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with morning frosts in some places, lows -2 to +3 C, and highs 9 to 12 C. Winds will drop off to a more light and variable pattern as this will be the closest approach of high pressure that is slowly sinking south to the west of Ireland. This will cut off the northeast flow and replace it with light north to northwest winds, then eventually later in the week, westerly winds.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will remain fairly similar, some colder air that was trying to get south will perhaps give east Ulster a glancing blow as it turns east over Scotland mid-week, so other than a gradual increase in westerly breezes, and some fairly extensive cloud in the north, the weather will stay rather cool and dry, with temperatures edging back towards more seasonable readings, possibly around 12-14 C by Thursday.

The OUTLOOK calls for this settled pattern to break down gradually around the weekend of 4th-5th to southeast winds, cloud and some rain with temperatures staying around 12 C. Eventually it may become rather windy and showery with temperatures edging up to perhaps 14 C.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with a bit of sleet that left no accumulation, quite cold with highs only around 3 C.

Tuesday, 31 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 31 March to 6 April 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with a rising trend.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, mostly towards end of the interval.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, mostly dry, but with some light and isolated showers near the north coast. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be rather cloudy with lows 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, lows near 2 C and highs near 11 C. Some rain at times in Ulster and northern coastal districts of Connacht.

THURSDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers becoming a bit more widespread in the north and sometimes reaching central counties, in a moderate westerly breeze of 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY will also be mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain, more persistent in western coastal areas. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY will be mild with occasional rain and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy and mild with rain, possibly heavy towards the end of the day. Highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK for next week ... after a slight fall in temperature on Monday, there will be more mild days during the mid-week period and probably a bit more rain at times. This should promote a fairly steady evolution of spring vegetation cycles going into the Easter weekend.

My local weather on Monday was quite changeable (as seen out the window) with passing showers of rain and snow pellets, highs around 4 C.

Thursday, 2 April, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 April, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average around 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average near normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals in parts of Munster and Galway. Outbreaks of light rain will continue across Ulster and will spread into Connacht and the midlands, north Leinster by mid-day, making some further southward progress through the afternoon. Amounts of 1-3 mm will be typical. Highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will continue partly to mostly cloudy with the light showers more confined to west Munster with some renewed activity in north and east Ulster. Lows 5 to 8 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mainly near western coasts. Highs 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with increasingly strong southerly winds reaching 60 to 90 km/hr by evening, then those will peak during the late overnight into Sunday morning. Rain will spread gradually into western counties, 5 to 10 mm amounts can be expected there, but it may not arrive in the east until overnight. Morning lows near 7 C and afternoon highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and quite mild with a few heavier bursts of rain moving through the west, midlands and north and more isolated showers for the south and east. Morning lows near 10 C and afternoon highs 13 to 16 C. Winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr except 80 to 110 km/hr in parts of Connacht and west Ulster.

MONDAY will continue quite breezy with variable amounts of cloud and a few residual showers, highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with highs near 15 C.

The OUTLOOK is for rather mild weather to continue with occasional frontal passages bringing near average amounts of rainfall but with dry intervals between these fronts lasting two or three days at a time. It should be ideal for gardening and farming interests in these challenging times. Temperatures may average slightly above normal most of the month.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly to mostly cloudy but a bit warmer at around 8 C. Snow in the local wooded areas is beginning to look a bit patchy now and it has largely gone from open areas in the town, still quite present on the hills around here though. It will probably be near the end of April before we have much of a spring look here, and the charts look rather cold for the next two weeks, so mixtures of rain and snow seem likely for us.

Saturday, 4 April, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 April, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 or even 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25% above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter spells at times, mainly dry but some patchy drizzle could begin around mid-day, and it will become increasingly breezy (southerly 50 to 80 km/hr at times this afternoon and evening). Highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast, breezy with light rain spreading into south and west, then other regions towards dawn, lows near 7 C.

SUNDAY will be overcast with outbreaks of rain, sometimes rather heavy in western counties, 10 to 20 mm amounts are possible, but there could also be brief intervals of brighter weather, and the wind will ease somewhat in parts of the south and east. Southwest winds of 50 to 80 km/hr with higher gusts in the northwest. Highs 13 to 16 C, highest values likely to be in the northern midlands.

MONDAY will remain quite breezy but with a clearing trend, as morning showers depart to the east, leaving partly cloudy skies and afternoon highs of 12 C after a mild overnight reading of about 9 C.

TUESDAY will see some sunny intervals and moderate southerly winds, lows near 3 C and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring increasing amounts of high cloud and the threat of some light rain in the far west by afternoon, lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

The outlook is a bit uncertain beyond mid-week with guidance diverging into different scenarios but most of those are on the milder side, the main variable is cloud cover and amounts of rainfall. Some guidance suggests a rather significant amount of rain by Thursday, then a relatively dry weekend. I think at this point safe to assume temperatures will be in the mid-teens generally, by day, and above freezing at night.

My local weather was wintry, some heavy bursts of snow left a coating and with partial thaw in sunny intervals, then evening freeze conditions it became rather icy underfoot. The highest temperature all day may have been a little below freezing. At least it helps when the weather makes you want to be indoors anyway.

Monday, 6 April, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 April, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average near normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be a bright and breezy day with passing showers, not very frequent but in isolated instances briefly heavy with some risk of thunder. Highs 12 to 14 C and winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals and rather cool overnight lows of 1 to 4 C with patchy ground frost possible.

TUESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, a southerly breeze will cool the south coast and warmest readings will be well inland and further north, where 14 to 16 C is possible.

WEDNESDAY will bring some filtered sunshine through higher cloud layers, and relatively warm again with morning lows 2 to 6 C and afternoon highs 14 to 18 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and warm inland, where highs could reach 18 to 20 C. Some chance of sea fog near south coast and a slightly cooling breeze for eastern counties. Patchy rain appears likely to reach west Munster by later in the day.

FRIDAY will probably be unsettled although guidance begins to become rather disorganized past this time, highs most likely around 15 C. At least some rain is likely, but it could be concentrated in a few places in the south and west and rather hit or miss elsewhere.

The Easter weekend outlook is quite uncertain given the spread in guidance, some suggestions of persistent cloud and some rain, other guidance favours a clearing trend and a return to warmth by Sunday or Monday. Will follow how this evolves and give you my best guess tomorrow, right now it seems to be quite a toss up. Temperatures would be dependent on sunshine but if cloudy, would be near 14 C, if some sun breaks through, closer to 18 C.

My local weather has remained unseasonably cold, as we're on the outer margins of a very extensive cold air mass covering most of Canada at this point. That strong high in the arctic that I mentioned has extended a ridge south into the prairies and northern plains states and brought a return to full-on winter weather there. It's not quite that bad here but at my elevation it is barely above freezing in the daytime with a bit of light snow at times. Valley areas are milder and out on the west coast it was sunny and closer to 10 C.

Wednesday, 8 April, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 April, 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal, considerably warmer than that at first, then below average by end of the interval, it all averages out to about +1.5 deg.

-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, the amount has been scaled down a bit as guidance indicates less rainfall potential for the one wet day we were expecting, Sunday, not looking quite that unsettled now.

-- Sunshine will average near normal, with a cloudy interval from about Saturday to mid-day Monday, more generous sunshine before and after that.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with high cloud tending to get a little thicker by afternoon in western counties. Once again, rather warm except near some coasts in a light southeast breeze. Highs 15 to 19 C inland, 12 to 14 C near some coasts. There is a slight risk of showers brushing by Donegal and northwest Mayo coasts, amounts trace to 2 mm generally in that corner of the country, but it should remain dry for most.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, hazy with lows 3 to 7 C. Some fog or mist patches are likely after midnight.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and warm in most places, with the chance of showers in a few parts of the northwest. Morning lows 3 to 7 C and afternoon highs 15 to 19 C, except closer to 13 C near some coasts.

FRIDAY will see somewhat cloudier skies, although some higher risk of showers, it may hold dry in parts of the east, with lows 4 to 7 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY will become cloudier still with a greater threat of showers developing, at least in parts of the south, west and northwest, with lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

The prospects for Easter SUNDAY have improved slightly, still expecting some showers and a drop in temperatures, but perhaps not quite as unsettled as earlier thought, highs 10 to 13 C.

After that, a slow clearing trend on MONDAY should return sunshine by afternoon from north to south, rather cool with highs 11 to 14 C. Tuesday should be a fairly decent day with highs around 16 C, then possibly another unsettled spell to follow that, but I don't have much confidence in longer term guidance in this sort of blocking pattern where a slight shift can mean a big change in timing (since everything moves rather slowly during a blocking episode).

If you thought the Moon looked full last night, you were right, it was exactly full around 0338h IST (0238 UTC). I have a view of it here now from my office window (looking south), after a nice sunny day with a high near 11 C.

Friday, 10 April, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 April, 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1.5 deg above normal, in fact higher than that at first and also perhaps near the end of this interval, while dropping slightly below average Sunday and Monday.

-- Rainfall now looking a bit more robust on Sunday, so 75 to 100 per cent of normal can be expected, almost all of it on Sunday except in a few parts of the west where small additional amounts will begin today.

-- Sunshine will probably work out near average despite a lot of cloud from mid-day Saturday to mid-day Monday.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks developing, away from a cloudier west coast where some light showers may persist. Staying quite warm with highs 17 to 20 C. Also a touch more humid today.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy and mild with lows of 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and warm, a few showers developing in the west finally beginning to make some progress east by late in the day, highs 17 to 20 C.

EASTER SUNDAY continues to look like a wet day for most places, except that now there are some indications of the rain being more persistent and lasting into the evening. Heavier amounts now expected to be throughout the inland south, midlands, and east inland from the coast although variations for drier areas not that great, 20-30 mm possible in wetter regions and 15 mm on average elsewhere. Temperatures will be stuck near 10 C in this rainfall but could edge up a few degrees any place that sees any breaks in the overcast.

MONDAY will experience fairly rapid clearing from north to south during the early morning hours (north) to late morning (south). A bright sunny afternoon should follow but it will be chilly in a moderate east-northeast wind of 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will probably revert to this week's warmth fairly quickly as much milder air will be already in place over top of the shallow cold layer on Monday, and should work its way down to the surface by Tuesday late morning, so expect highs back into the 15 to 18 C range at least, with nights near 5 C after one chilly night (Monday night) where scattered frost may occur (lows -2 to +3 C).

The current indications are that only a minor breakdown of next week's renewed fine weather will arrive on Thursday with scattered showers but not that organized, with a mild southeast flow continuing for a few more days, possibly to be replaced by a colder easterly push around the end of the weekend (18th-19th) then a more unsettled pattern to follow -- would not necessarily expect the month overall to finish dry despite this dry start.

My local weather was sunny and warm also on Thursday, highs near 15 C outside here and 20 C reported from the nearby valley weather stations.

Sunday, 12 April, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


Just a brief blog format update today as there are no significant changes until perhaps Friday of next week in the outlook. And first of all, best wishes to you and yours during these unusual times, we'll muddle through this together ...

Today will unfortunately see the end of the warm spell and with that, some significant rainfall is moving into the south central counties. Latest guidance suggests it may not affect the north as strongly, but almost every place in Ireland can expect at least 5 mm of rain and some parts of the inland south can expect 20 mm by end of the daylight hours. Temperatures will not move up much from where you find them now, 8 to 11 degrees, but if any particular location does break into a brief sunny spell then temperatures could get back up to about 14 C. This does not seem likely except perhaps near the west coast later in the afternoon.

Tomorrow will see rapid clearing from north to south and it may be sunny from quite early on in most places, possibly about 9-10 a.m. before clearing the south coast. It will be a somewhat cooler day than you enjoyed last week, with highs around 11 to 13 C. A rather brisk east to northeast wind will set in overnight and persist during Monday. The clear skies will last overnight permitting some frost to form inland, with lows Monday night and early Tuesday around -2 to +3 C.

By Tuesday, that wind will be down to a slight breeze and warmer air that will be overspreading the new high pressure area will have its chance to work down to the surface. That may take part of Tuesday to complete, so temperatures may be a bit variable from place to place especially early on, however by afternoon it could be as warm as 16 C in parts of the west, a bit cooler in Leinster and the south coast due to the slight onshore breeze. Wednesday will be a similar day if perhaps a degree or two milder. Hazy sunshine should continue after any morning fog burns off.

Thursday will see some isolated showers, mainly over parts of Munster and Connacht, and it will stay fairly warm at 15 to 17 C. Friday could see a bit more organized shower activity and highs 14 to 16 C. The following weekend breaks back into the drier and milder portion of this blocked southeasterly flow.

In these blocking patterns, you can't really trust the computer models to give more than tentative guidance on how long the blocks remain in place and how they break down eventually, but usually it's about two or three weeks before things really change back to a more normal pattern in these April or early May blocks. And often there's a bout of heavy rainfall to mark the transition. This rain we're seeing today will not break the pattern, it slipped in when one high faded and another one is still waiting its turn to move south. But it should be long gone by about midnight.

My local weather stayed fair with mostly sunny skies but it was a lot cooler here than previous days as we got into the outer edges of a cold arctic high moving south over the prairies. The wind was swirling around between northeast and northwest and quite gusty at times raising clouds of dust from the grit that remains all over the place after the winter. And the temperature was only about 7 C for a high. This colder air did not push much further west than here and valleys between here and the coast remained quite warm, 17 to 20 C. We might gradually edge back into that as the arctic high pulls away from us over the next few days. Meanwhile a major severe weather outbreak is developing over the south central states and may affect the southeastern U.S. later today. While everyone misses the Masters golf tournament (now to be played in November), it should be mentioned that by moving the dates, they have avoided dealing with what could be one of the worst weather days to hit their region during the tournament weekend for quite some time.

Tuesday, 14 April, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 April, 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal in western counties, near normal central and 1 to 2 deg below average in the east.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal values, highest values in the southwest, lower in the north.

-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values. By this point, that normal is around 4 hours per day, so we are expecting an average of five or six hours a day, sometimes more at first.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with some hazy conditions in the north due to increasing high clouds. The light southeast breezes will bring cooling sea breezes to parts of Leinster and Munster, and it will be warmest in western counties a little inland as the gradient won't totally prevent the west coast from some onshore breezes too. Highs inland (west/central) will reach 15 C, closer to 10 or 11 C near some coasts.

TONIGHT will be clear with scattered frost redeveloping, perhaps not as widespread as this morning (currently -3 C in some places, lows tonight more like -1 or -2). Some coastal areas will remain frost free (lows 2 to 4 C).

WEDNESDAY will be sunny with occasional high cloud, and more cooling sea breezes likely to form in east and south coast locations, perhaps a degree or two warmer in general, with highest readings about 17 C inland west.

THURSDAY will see only minor changes with some increase in cloud and an outbreak of scattered light rain showers in west Munster, possibly spreading into parts of south Leinster and Connacht before dying out. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

FRIDAY will also see partly cloudy skies and some outbreaks of showery light rain, mainly in the south and west, lows near 5 C and highs in the range of 12 to 16 C.

The WEEKEND will become more breezy as a stronger east wind develops. That is likely to push the chill from east coast sea breezes quite some distance into central counties before eventually similar warmer readings are found closer to the west coast, and also there may be more cloud than sunshine in this flow. Temperatures could be held down a few degrees in most places with readings generally between 12 and 15 C.

Next week is looking mainly dry and at times not quite as mild as somewhat colder air mixes in from the northeast. There won't be a sharp drop because of the ongoing sea breeze modification of this milder air mass, once a colder source region is tapped, that modification is less of an issue as the air is already the temperature of the ocean or sea environment itself. So would expect temperatures to stay near normal for most of the following week, 12 to 15 C but some nights may return to being slightly frosty inland. Still expecting a breakdown of this blocking near the end of April with eventually some heavier rainfall.

My local weather on Monday was sunny with a bit of higher cloud dimming the sunshine but it did warm up somewhat to around 15 C.

Thursday, 16 April, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for week of 16 to 22 April, 2020

-- Temperatures will vary from about 2 deg above normal in the west, to 0.5 to 1.5 deg below average in the east.
-- Rainfall will be rather slight in most places, 25% of normal may be reached in a few places.
-- Sunshine will continue to be at least average if not more generous at 25 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see mostly sunny but hazy skies for most of the day with a gradual increase in cloud by afternoon, at least across Munster, south Leinster and parts of Connacht, where a few showers could result by end of the afternoon, dry elsewhere though, highs 14 to 17 C except 11 to 13 C near east coast.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with any lingering showers dying out, lows near 5 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C, somewhat cooler again near east coast.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, temperatures similar in the 13 to 16 C range. There is now a slight risk of showers developing once again, coverage expected to be rather spotty, east and north may see what little does develop.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers again with highs once again near 15 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue similar to the weekend with highs perhaps a little warmer at 17 C in parts of the west, still the slight risk of showers but very little accumulation of rain expected.

By mid-week, there may be a slight cooling trend as winds start to pick up from a northeast direction. Since temperatures are normally rising at this time of year, a slightly cooler air mass may just result in a stationary temperature trend but one that edges below average as a result. So would look for more essentially dry and pleasant weather most of the remainder of April now, with temperatures mainly in the mid-teens except where cooled by sea breezes. A few days may approach 18-20 C but nights will remain a bit on the chilly side.

My local weather had a bit of everything, as shower clouds drifted by in a moderate southwest wind, and cold temperatures aloft meant that the heavier showers turned to snow pellets with some brief accumulations, but in the sunshine between showers it felt rather mild, maybe reaching 8 to 10 C. Unusual to see this combination, on south facing slopes you can find spring flowers and green grass, generally elsewhere there is still snow lying around in various depths between a few inches and almost a foot or so, and the local mountains are still a dazzling white when they appear in breaks in the cloud.

Saturday, 18 April, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 April, 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal in the west, and somewhat below normal in the east due to cooling sea breezes.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal in the south, 10 to 25 per cent in the north where it begins later in the interval.
-- Sunshine will average 25 per cent below average, as considerable cloud is now expected most days despite dry weather.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, but only small amounts (2-4 mm at most), with some parts of Ulster remaining dry and seeing a little brighter conditions. Highs near 11 C east to 15 C west in light to moderate southeast breezes.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy with further outbreaks of light rain in some central counties mainly, then misty with fog patches later. Mild with lows 8 to 11 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and isolated showers most concentrated in the south central counties and midlands. Moderate southeast winds and highs 12 to 16 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, shower activity quite isolated in parts of Munster, with lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with rather brisk easterly winds at times, lows near 6 C and highs 12 to 17 C.

From mid-week to the weekend of 25th-26th, continued generally dry and mild in east to northeast breezes, maintaining the regime of milder temperatures to the west, in the range of 13 to 18 C.

Most guidance is now favouring a breakdown to a westerly regime returning Atlantic frontal systems to the weather picture just around the end of the month but with signs of another blocking episode to follow in May, so perhaps the longer term general theme is dry and mild with occasional intervals of near average conditions -- not the most thrilling weather scenario for those forum members who enjoy an active weather pattern, but it is what it is.

My local weather saw a gradual increase in cloud as a weak frontal trough dropped down from the north, keeping the temperatures down a bit in the 12 to 14 C range. It has stayed dry so far but some wintry showers are on radar over the nearby high country.

Monday, 20 April, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


I feel like maybe this is a rerun of the movie Groundhog Day ... trends remain similar to what I've posted for several days now. Near normal temperatures running a bit warmer west than east. Mostly dry to near end but some guidance showing renewed Atlantic rainfalls at some point around next weekend (this is not yet a sure thing). Sunshine now improving again.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and fairly warm away from the east coast, highs 15 to 19 C but could be held to 12-13 C in a few coastal areas. Moderate east winds at times.

TONIGHT will be mostly clear with lows 2 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will also be sunny with cloudy intervals and perhaps a degree or two warmer again, highs 16 to 20 C, held to 14 C near east coast.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will likely continue this scenario with just a slight increase in cloudiness, perhaps becoming partly to mostly cloudy at times in the south coast counties, but essentially dry with temperatures in the same range as today again.

FRIDAY may see more cloud than sunshine and a more variable wind regime as the blocking could begin to break down gradually.

The outlook is rather uncertain because various models are handling the breakdown of blocking in much different ways, over the period starting next weekend and lasting into the last day or two of April. There seems to be a fairly good consensus developing for a return to more normal weather patterns with west to east movement of frontal systems for a time, then also hints fairly widespread of a renewed blocking signal after a few days of that westerly period; however, one or two models just continue to show blocking without interruption.

If it does break down, temperatures would probably fall most noticeably in western counties no longer enjoying the benefits of a land breeze, and rainfall would probably resume more forcefully across the north at first. In the return to any second wave of blocking, the moisture then brought into the region would be forced back on itself creating some heavier rainfalls in southeast winds, that most likely into the first week to ten days of May (still a while to go for that obviously).

My local weather has a groundhog day feel also, although we are not in an easterly block, just a continuing dry spell under high pressure nearby. The prevailing wind has been southerly here, bringing in fairly mild air from lower elevations of central Washington state which is almost a semi-desert in the summer and can get very warm, so even in this early part of the summer season if it gets to be 20-25 C down that way, we see 15-20 C readings in our valleys and 12-15 C up at my elevation (which is because I'm on a hill, not because I'm really really tall).