Christmas Racing: Leopardstown, Kempton, Chepstow

Cyrname/Delta Work double

piplip87 wrote: »

Wetherby 2.05 Stephen's day Yorkhill is entered in a grade 3 surely worth a few quid after the last day

Those 9's wont last long either

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Just make sure you get NRNB as Nicola Sturgeon banned travel from Scotland to England. As far as I know Sandy Thompson's yard is in Scotland, albeit he is on the border, but they sacked a minister up there before for taking the piss.

That's a really good point!!
Jesus, did I read before that Tizzards stable is actually across the border in Wales?????
Or was that someone else....Christ, I never thought of any of that !!

Brian Hughes daily trips to hoover up wins in Ayr and Musselburgh must be under threat now are they??

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The Welsh border counties will toe the line with England, they have to do what they are told.

But Sturgeon is all about Scottish independence so every chance she gets to show up Westminster she will use it. Hence this travel ban.

I can't answer for Brian Hughes..... he is going to go where he gets the best rides. We won't know anyway until Sunday, as the UK lockdown doesn't kick in until after racing is finished on St Stephens day.

Checked it out. Scottish horses free to travel

RivetingRoger wrote:

Nope. As per Ante Post small print

Just seen skybet and Victor chandler have voided bets, fair play, if only they'd take a betðŸ˜

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Cyrname/Delta Work double

Only catching up with this thread/forum now and I'm not sure if it is good or bad news for you but I have done the exact same bet

My best bet over the Christmas period is Secret Reprieve in the Welsh National, got 10s two weeks ago, best price 7/2 now but still juice in that, horse is officially 8lbs well in and I think he is value for a few more.

I'm also told that Ha D'or is very highly thought of by those in the know at Closutton, is currently available at 50s for the Triumph and is expected to run in Leopardstown.

Looks like there may be a serious downpour on Saturday evening - could be looking for the bog warriors from Sunday!

The Welsh will be some staying test

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Serious downpour over Leopardstown all this morning and yesterday evening. It will be soft or heavy going for sure. What happens now if it gets cooler is that the ground can't dry out and it turns very boggy and sticky.

The thing with Leopardstown is that you get two types of ground, the home straight drains really well as it is on a sideways hill. The back straight gets really boggy though and that is where you want one that gets through it nicely as you need to be up with the pace for the home stretch when the ground improves. Frontrunners with nice stamina will do well.

I drove from the Square over to Carrickmines earlier and the M50 was like a swimming pool, pouring down so it is.

Overheard in Leopardstown on Sunday.....
"That Tony Martin yoke is travelling very well isn't it.....never heard of it before, looks a lot like Native River doesn't it..........:cool:

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Tell us, is JohnJo allowed send his over to race in the PP on Sunday?

Yes, horse got to Ireland before restrictions were announced

Paul Kealy has a 25-1 fancy in the King George



Takingrisks
2.05 Wetherby, Saturday
16-1 generally

Saint Calvados
3.00 Kempton, Saturday
25-1 generally

Lord Du Mesnil
2.50 Chepstow, Sunday
16-1 each-way generally

I’m well aware that weather can be localised, but I really had to do a double-take when I saw on the BHA website on Monday that the going at Kempton was just good to soft, good in places.

I live only ten miles from the track and there are pavement slabs that are softer than that right now!

The latest GoingStick reading backs up the description, but there’s a huge amount of rain forecast by some on Wednesday night into Thursday morning and I would have thought the prediction of good to soft, soft in places was a tad ambitious.

I’m going to work on the basis of soft ground, although that doesn’t necessarily mean I’ll be backing either of the front two in the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase.

The most likely outcome is obviously Clan Des Obeaux beating Cyrname into second yet again, and I think that’s probably what will happen, but the make-up of the rest of the field makes me want to have a small each-way play and hope things don’t quite go to script.

There are four other horses priced shorter than 20-1 and yet not one of them interests me at the prices.

You can certainly understand Nicky Henderson deciding to supplement Santini when you look at those behind the front two in the market, and a defeat to Lake View Lad on his return at Aintree was not as bad as some thought – and was miles better than Lostintranslation’s return.

He’s the one most likely to serve it up to the front two, but there are question marks about a right-handed track for him and you certainly wouldn’t want to take much shorter than he is.

Lostintranslation though, is surely much the worse value of the two as he didn’t seem to like the track last year and ran appallingly on his return at Haydock.

I’ve been a longtime fan of the horse, but around here he is the one you can envisage blowing right out again and he’s one I’ve got down to lay in all the place markets.

Then you’ve got Reel Steel, but he fails to convince that his form at 3m on soft ground is good enough.

Frodon doesn’t stay 3m when the ground is soft and Kempton isn’t his course, either, while Waiting Patiently has run only once in 20 months.

Therefore I reckon the only conceivable each-way bet for those looking away from the obvious is Saint Calvados.

Stamina is the very obvious doubt with him and when I started digging into this race I didn’t think for a minute I’d end up putting up a horse who was virtually unrestrainable in the 2018 Arkle, losing any chance by going off way too fast.

However, what we saw last year from Saint Calvados, who has an impeccable first-time-out record of 111, was a horse who had really grown up and was taking his form to a new level with every start.

Having been a tearaway front-runner, he suddenly seemed perfectly happy to be dropped in, and if he hadn’t belted the last in the Ryanair, he may well have beaten Min rather than going down by a neck.

The fact he was able to pick himself up and get going again tells you he got the 2m4½ very well, and if you didn’t have the evidence of his runs as a very young horse, you would say the obvious next step would be to try 3m.

There are plenty shorter than him that you wouldn’t fancy getting anywhere near that close to Min over 2m4f, and we know he can’t have the ground soft enough and goes incredibly well fresh.

He is one of those you can see cruising through the race for a long way, and while there’s every chance he won’t stay, I wouldn’t mind betting plenty are beaten before he is.

Whether he can get near the front two is another matter as he needs to improve for the trip to do so, but Clan Des Obeaux comes into the race having had a much harder prep than in his previous two winning years, while Cyrname has not quite proved his stamina.

Sure, he won over 3m for the first time in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, but the time was desperately slow and they went nothing like the searching gallop that is likely in this. He stopped rapidly in the straight last year, and it’s hard to shake that memory.

I do think Paul Nicholls’ two stars will end up fighting out the finish, but I’m happy with an each-way punt at much bigger odds, while there will be a without the front two market, and I’ll be looking around for those prices then.

Takingrisks the one to side with at Wetherby
If truth be told, Kempton on Boxing Day rarely offers a great punting card on ITV and it’s the same story this year.

Epatante is going to be a very warm order and unopposable for the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle, and you won’t get that rich backing Shan Blue to slam The Big Breakaway in the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, which he surely will.

That said, there are some firms who put the two very close in the betting and I can only assume they haven’t been watching the same racing as I have – I’d have The Big Breakaway third favourite at best.

I had high hopes for The Big Breakaway this season, but he either has a few quirks or has very quickly turned into a slowboat.

Either way, if he jumps the way he has and Shan Blue attacks the Kempton fences like he did those at Wetherby, especially when really asked to race in the home straight the final time, there is going to be only one winner.

At Wetherby he gave 13lb to Snow Leopardess, who also jumped superbly, and in the straight ran clean away from the grey, who has since won a £40k Class 2 handicap at Haydock.

We of course shouldn’t rule out the classy If The Cap Fits, although he doesn’t yet look a natural and I’ll be disappointed if Shan Blue doesn’t give Dan Skelton another Grade 1 novice chase winner this season.

He has been by far the most impressive staying novice in Britain so far this season.

I can’t say I ever get that interested in betting at 2-1, though, so it’s off to Wetherby and the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase for the second value bet on Boxing Day.

Nearly Perfect was nearly the selection after winning so well at the course last time, but I’m a little bit concerned this might come a bit quick, and the bet at double the price is Takingrisks.

He is one of the outsiders of the field, but I can’t really have that given the way he ran in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time when fourth to Yorkhill.

He is going to be 6lb better off with the winner, which makes him only fairly handicapped, but Takingrisks shaped so much better than his six-and-a-half-length fourth suggests.

Having been badly hampered by a faller at the 11th fence, he jumped the next two stickily and was always on the back foot and, jumping the fourth-last, you’d have bet on him being beaten 20 lengths or more.

He really did rally strongly, though and was flying late on (in relation to those in front anyway), and given another 100 yards or so he’d have been right on top of the winner.

That was on good ground, arguably making the stamina test not quite sufficient for him (he won the race on heavy the year before) and he could well strip fitter again on his third start. At 16-1 he looks a fair each-way bet.

Lord to take Welsh National spoils
Only 20 were declared at the five-day stage for the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Sunday, so we could have a smaller field than usual, and there are two horses with standout claims from a handicapping perspective.

Secret Reprieve and Vieux Lion Rouge are both 8lb well in after runaway successes three weeks ago, the former winning the Chepstow trial for this and the latter taking the Becher Chase for the second time.

Vieux Lion Rouge was pulled up in this race two years ago after running second in the Becher, so you can understand why the layers are more scared of the much younger Secret Reprieve.

There have been a few short-priced winners of this in recent years, most notably 11-4 Native River in 2016 and 3-1 Elegant Escape two years ago, and it’s certainly hard to argue that Secret Reprieve is not the one to beat should he stay the extra three-quarters of a mile here.

However, I’ve rarely been one to bet at such short odds in big handicaps and I’ve been quite keen on one for a while, even though his two outings this year will have looked very disappointing to many.

I’ve got this feeling, though, that Lord Du Mesnil’s whole campaign has been geared to peaking for this race – and he is going to get his perfect conditions in it.

Lord Du Mesnil made his name last year running in marathon races in stamina-sapping conditions, and having won twice at Haydock and finished second in the Grand National Trial there, he went on to be second in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.

Still only seven, he reappeared this year over 2m6f on decent ground in a novice hurdle, and the only thing surprising about his ten-length fourth there (to me anyway) was the fact he went off evens favourite. It could not have been a less suitable race for him.

Lord Du Mesnil then went to Aintree, but instead of running in the Becher Chase, which would have been much more suitable trip-wise, he turned out for the Grand Sefton over just 2m5f.

If he was expected to run to his best at Aintree, he would almost certainly have gone for the longer race, but he still shaped better than his 45-length ninth to Beau Bay suggests.

It’s fair to say he did not take that well to the fences as he made four of five mistakes, which shuffled him back in the field each time, but he was no more than a couple of lengths off the winner jumping two out and it’s testament to his ability that he managed to keep getting back into contention.

Whether he just got tired after those efforts or didn’t have the speed to go with them from there is neither here nor there because that wasn’t the right race for him.
This one is, and I expect him to jump a lot better and play a prominent role from the off. There won’t be many who handle what is certain to be bottomless ground as well as he does and he looks a cracking each-way bet.