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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

24567144

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    I think the Kamala Harris' team are some what pandering to black people:
    Tweeting this out the day before the election.

    https://twitter.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154

    This even surpasses Hillary's 'I always carry hot sauce' moment in 2016.

    Surpasses it in the sense of it not making a ripple, I don't even remember the hot sauce moment. And I remember that godforsaken campaign vividly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭consulatory


    I don't see anything wrong with that message. In fact I think it's a really positive message - kind of the opposite of the Ayn Rand "I got where I am through my own talents and why should I have to help anyone else out" school of selfishness that pervades thinking in the USA.

    I'm not familiar with the hot sauce thing but I can imagine it and these do not seem comparable to me.

    I do see something wrong with it.

    It's complete identity-politics nonsense.

    Ayn Rand was an extremist on one side. This is extremism on the other side.
    Both, to me, are wrong, and it's dangerous to promote either message.

    Even more so 'cos what are the chances of Kamala actually believing this?

    Her team looked at the data & said: "here, say this" regardless of whether she has ever expressed those beliefs or anything even close to them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,105 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    I do see something wrong with it.

    It's complete identity-politics nonsense.

    Ayn Rand was an extremist on one side. This is extremism on the other side.
    Both, to me, are wrong, and it's dangerous to promote either message.

    Even more so 'cos what are the chances of Kamala actually believing this?

    Her team looked at the data & said: "here, say this" regardless of whether she has ever expressed those beliefs or anything even close to them.

    You got all that out of the simple message that where you start out in life matters...


    It's such an obvious simple message and coming from someone seemingly based in Ireland ? I'm not sure how you can see this has divisive...


  • Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭consulatory


    Surpasses it in the sense of it not making a ripple, I don't even remember the hot sauce moment. And I remember that godforsaken campaign vividly.


    It was on Charlamange tha God's show(https://youtu.be/oRZd861Pog0?t=1497)

    The same place Biden(the 80 year old white guy) attempted to gatekeep blackness by saying: "If you have a problem figuring out if you’re for me or Trump then you ain’t black” . If a black American said that, I'd tell them to go f%^& themselves. Imagine hearing it from a white guy who's lived at least 60 years of privilege in his life. With more than enough time to think. How did those words come out of his mouth like? Unreal. Hate that sh&T
    https://youtu.be/KOIFs_SryHI?t=1039

    I mean, Trump/pence or Biden/Harris - I'd definitely be spoiling my vote on the day. Rock and a hard place.

    Dems would've been better off pulling Bernie towards center than going ahead with Biden.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Ayn Rand was an extremist on one side. This is extremism on the other side.

    The notion that we don't all get dealt an equal hand in life is extremist?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    I think the Kamala Harris' team are some what pandering to black people:

    "Pandering to black people"

    I think your choice of words says a lot there, none of it good.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    OK, so now the second of these already voted/intend to vote polls now, with almost exactly the same results for both.

    https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1323394300789612544

    If we're assuming a 150 million turnout with 98 million already voted - then these are the numbers:

    79.54 mil Biden vs 64.4 mil Trump, could be slightly less depending when the poll took place.

    About a 10 point national lead which pretty much guarantees a Biden landslide.

    As this is a mix of an exit poll and normal poll, with the former usually being very accurate. I would take this as an indication that polling may be close this year, or certainly not wildly out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,774 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    A wrap up of the predictions.

    Economist have Biden winning at 96% - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
    538 have Biden winning at 89% - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
    Betfair give Biden a 66% chance of winning - https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441


  • Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭consulatory


    listermint wrote: »
    You got all that out of the simple message that where you start out in life matters...


    It's such an obvious simple message and coming from someone seemingly based in Ireland ? I'm not sure how you can see this has divisive...


    If you think that was 'just a simple message', and not loaded to the brim, then I think you are their target market.

    Feel good nonsense with no basis in reality.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭consulatory


    "Pandering to black people"

    I think your choice of words says a lot there, none of it good.


    How so? Literally a quote from the Charlamange tha God interview.

    Please don't be silly and read words as they are written without imposing your own knee-jerk reaction on to them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,616 ✭✭✭✭errlloyd


    A wrap up of the predictions.

    Economist have Biden winning at 96% - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
    538 have Biden winning at 89% - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
    Betfair give Biden a 66% chance of winning - https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

    I put a decent wedge on Biden earlier because of this. Maybe I'm crazy....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,105 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    If you think that was 'just a simple message', and not loaded to the brim, then I think you are their target market.

    Feel good nonsense with no basis in reality.

    Ah right, I suppose maybe they could put ads out where someone works their socks off in let's say waitressing and Bar work. Doing the American dream putting yourself through multiple jobs and looking after your family whilst putting yourself through school.

    Then maybe let's say making it through Congress to become a senator, after running an extremely successful campaign against an incumbent.


    And after Doing all that just be dismissed as a waitress.. by the same people selling the story of bootstraps.

    Maybe that makes a better ad? perhaps.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    How so? Literally a quote from the Charlamange tha God interview.

    Please don't be silly and read words as they are written without imposing your own knee-jerk reaction on to them.

    You called a very positive message which Kamala Harris tweeted "pandering to black people".

    I think any reasonable person can see the problem there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    It was on Charlamange tha God's show(https://youtu.be/oRZd861Pog0?t=1497)

    The same place Biden(the 80 year old white guy) attempted to gatekeep blackness by saying: "If you have a problem figuring out if you’re for me or Trump then you ain’t black” . If a black American said that, I'd tell them to go f%^& themselves. Imagine hearing it from a white guy who's lived at least 60 years of privilege in his life. With more than enough time to think. How did those words come out of his mouth like? Unreal. Hate that sh&T
    https://youtu.be/KOIFs_SryHI?t=1039

    I mean, Trump/pence or Biden/Harris - I'd definitely be spoiling my vote on the day. Rock and a hard place.

    Dems would've been better off pulling Bernie towards center than going ahead with Biden.


    Who cares where it was. It was an irrelevance. Seems only you remembered it enough to accord it some value 4 years later.

    As regards the Dems "pulling Bernie to the centre"? Why? What? How? Why?

    Better of in what sense, so that they'd definitely lose? You realise that they've a massive shot on having all three branches right?

    Your political radar is, and this is putting it nicely, a bit off.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,304 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    82 per cent of Irish people want Biden to win.

    Go Joe Biden Go Kamala Harris.

    Let's hope for all our sakes and for our sanity that they win.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Sad to see cities across the US boarding up the night before an election.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,150 ✭✭✭letowski


    Steve Schale did a very good numbers breakdown of the state of play in Florida heading into tomorrow:

    http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2020/11/2/here-we-are.html

    A worthwhile read of the voter demographics in Florida and what to look out for. He is a good follow on Twitter, for people looking for early insights tomorrow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    briany wrote: »
    The absolute shítetalk coming out of Trump regarding the count. He is talking about the election being decided on the night of the polls closing and votes counted in the days following being in question. That's patently ridiculous. No-one can defend that. A two week deadline in counting votes is nothing out of the ordinary. Mail-in voting is not out of the ordinary. Trump questioning both is absolutely shameful, but he has no shame. The best the trolls can do is glib equivocation. Let the votes be counted as they have been in every previous election and see where the chips fall.

    I know. I will lose all respect for anyone I hear defending that shite in any way. That is Mugabe-level nonsense.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    letowski wrote: »
    Steve Schale did a very good numbers breakdown of the state of play in Florida heading into tomorrow:

    http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2020/11/2/here-we-are.html

    A worthwhile read of the voter demographics in Florida and what to look out for. He is a good follow on Twitter, for people looking for early insights tomorrow.

    Great read.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Water John wrote: »
    Sad to see cities across the US boarding up the night before an election.

    The only outcome that I can imagine that does not lead to turmoil is a big Biden win.

    The only other two possibilities are a narrow victory either way:

    If Trump wins at this stage, given that he's twice as far back in the polls as he was 4 years ago, it's quite likely to involve legal challenges to mail vote counting and ultimately, the Supreme Court. I can't even imagine what will happen if that turn of events comes to pass given what has happened with that court over the past 4 years.

    On the flip-side, let's say that Trump wins Florida and is ahead in the vote counting in Pennsylvania. I expect that under those circumstances he will declare victory. Now I don't expect anyone outside of his media bubble to back him up but his supporters will be listening. If Biden then, as expected does better with mail votes and passes him out Trump will say that the election has been "stolen" from him. That will unleash chaos.

    If I was a business owner in a city I would probably be boarding my premises up as well.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    AMKC wrote: »
    82 per cent of Irish people want Biden to win.

    Go Joe Biden Go Kamala Harris.

    Let's hope for all our sakes and for our sanity that they win.

    My father is one of the 18 per cent who don't. Most of my life I have heard him slate Irish politicians for not giving a damn about the poor, and yet he will defend Trump with a cultlike fervour that has left me scratching my head. I've had so many bitter arguments over the years about it and that's one of the reasons this election feels very personal.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The Florida system of having the mail in already counted and released immediately after close of vote is much better.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,510 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    Graham wrote: »
    You get your US election news from a 'Doctor', on Youtube that sells secret weight loss powder from a link beneath his videos?

    That's err, different.

    Hey, at least if Trump loses there'll be a 100% effective weight loss solution to counteract all the comfort eating.

    I'd also recommend picking up some of the Alex Jones anti-coronavirus toothpaste before stocks run out.

    What is it with so many "political commentators" also selling pseudoscientific healthcare products?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,721 ✭✭✭StupidLikeAFox


    My father is one of the 18 per cent who don't. Most of my life I have heard him slate Irish politicians for not giving a damn about the poor, and yet he will defend Trump with a cultlike fervour that has left me scratching my head. I've had so many bitter arguments over the years about it and that's one of the reasons this election feels very personal.

    Is he on Facebook? Could be the algorithms...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,940 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    You'd swear Biden was Padre Pio with posters on here. He is a horrible Man, as is his son. Is Trump perfect?, definitely not. Remember these same polls predicted a win for " Madam" President ��.

    Boards.ie users overall are definitely Pro Democrat and biased. Lets wait for the results and don't do what Trump is accused of and count the votes before they're cast, in turn declaring early victory.

    So, who would you vote for if you had a vote tomorrow.

    Two choices, Trump or Biden. One vote.

    And why?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,988 ✭✭✭✭~Rebel~


    My father is one of the 18 per cent who don't. Most of my life I have heard him slate Irish politicians for not giving a damn about the poor, and yet he will defend Trump with a cultlike fervour that has left me scratching my head. I've had so many bitter arguments over the years about it and that's one of the reasons this election feels very personal.

    I hope whatever happens tomorrow and over the next week or so that yee still find yourselves on decent terms anyway.


  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yeah I'm not a particular fan of Biden. One weakness of the Left is allowing fragmentation and refusing to hold one's nose in an election. TBH I don't think Biden particular wanted to run but it turns out he was the most popular candidate and most viable, something I'm sure they made completely sure of before he entered the race.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,988 ✭✭✭✭~Rebel~


    Yeah I'm not a particular fan of Biden. One weakness of the Left is allowing fragmentation and refusing to hold one's nose in an election. TBH I don't think Biden particular wanted to run but it turns out he was the most popular candidate and most viable, something I'm sure they made completely sure of before he entered the race.

    Yeah, I think he’s the candidate because nobody hated him, rather than because anyone loved him. He’s the compromise that those fragmented groups you mention could all reluctantly get behind.

    Basically, he’s grand like.

    But to be honest, that’s perhaps what the US needs right now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,410 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Yeah I'm not a particular fan of Biden. One weakness of the Left is allowing fragmentation and refusing to hold one's nose in an election. TBH I don't think Biden particular wanted to run but it turns out he was the most popular candidate and most viable, something I'm sure they made completely sure of before he entered the race.
    He's in the race because the Democrat higher ups knew they were going nowhere with the so called "progressives", the likes of Warren, Sanders etc.

    He was parachuted in relatively late because he was the only one who could be competitive for those white, older, small c conservative votes that were need in the rust belt.

    I don't know if he wins or not, but he was their best shot.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,105 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    You'd swear Biden was Padre Pio with posters on here. He is a horrible Man, as is his son. Is Trump perfect?, definitely not. Remember these same polls predicted a win for " Madam" President 😂.

    Boards.ie users overall are definitely Pro Democrat and biased. Lets wait for the results and don't do what Trump is accused of and count the votes before they're cast, in turn declaring early victory.

    Lay off Facebook, read a few books. Perhaps the ones actually about trump and or Biden.

    inform yourself and don't be relying on a feed of information from a hugely questionable social media website.

    Expect actions from global government's in the next few years to make Facebook accountable and treat it like a publisher so it has to start following actual rules about what's on it.


    Everyone is capable of educating themselves properly these days.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,105 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    He's in the race because the Democrat higher ups knew they were going nowhere with the so called "progressives", the likes of Warren, Sanders etc.

    He was parachuted in relatively late because he was the only one who could be competitive for those white, older, small c conservative votes that were need in the rust belt.

    I don't know if he wins or not, but he was their best shot.

    In the current climate. It makes absolute sense to at least right the ship. They can deal with bailing out the water and setting up the pumps once they've achieved that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Yeah I'm not a particular fan of Biden. One weakness of the Left is allowing fragmentation and refusing to hold one's nose in an election. TBH I don't think Biden particular wanted to run but it turns out he was the most popular candidate and most viable, something I'm sure they made completely sure of before he entered the race.


    Biden, the left! I think not! He is funny in spitting image though


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,614 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    At 77 Biden hardly has a long political career ahead of him. This is all about getting Trump out.
    That is the only issue for a lot of people in this election.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,366 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    20silkcut wrote: »
    At 77 Biden hardly has a long political career ahead of him. This is all about getting Trump out.
    That is the only issue for a lot of people in this election.

    Every Presidential election that includes an incumbent running for a second term is essentially a referendum on his performance.

    People pretend it's a free choice between two candidates but it's really not. It's 4 more years v change


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    8-10 wrote:
    People pretend it's a free choice between two candidates but it's really not. It's 4 more years v change


    Free choice, in American elections!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,614 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    8-10 wrote: »
    Every Presidential election that includes an incumbent running for a second term is essentially a referendum on his performance.

    People pretend it's a free choice between two candidates but it's really not. It's 4 more years v change

    That’s why Biden was a good choice by the democrats they are not asking people to back a brave new radical vision or a new era of democratic dominance in the form of a young dynamic Obama/JFK type candidate. They are basically selling a break from the madness of the trump era. Breathing space. They have made this a referendum on Trump by running such an inoffensive candidate against him. They can catch a lot of moderate conservatives who don’t like trump with that strategy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,410 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    20silkcut wrote: »
    That’s why Biden was a good choice by the democrats they are not asking people to back a brave new radical vision or a new era of democratic dominance in the form of a young dynamic Obama/JFK type candidate. They are basically selling a break from the madness of the trump era. Breathing space. They can catch a lot of moderate conservatives who don’t like trump with that strategy.
    Yes
    Hopefully it will lead the way to a more balanced, less confrontational, less abrasive, conservative running in 2024.


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,215 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    Anyone staying up to watch this tonight? I know it's unlikely to be decided before tomorrow morning (at the earliest), barring a landslide, but tempted to stay up and watch the footage.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,298 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Kiith wrote: »
    Anyone staying up to watch this tonight? I know it's unlikely to be decided before tomorrow morning (at the earliest), barring a landslide, but tempted to stay up and watch the footage.


    I was but i dont think its worth it this year, its gonna be a mess for days.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    20silkcut wrote: »
    That’s why Biden was a good choice by the democrats they are not asking people to back a brave new radical vision or a new era of democratic dominance in the form of a young dynamic Obama/JFK type candidate. They are basically selling a break from the madness of the trump era. Breathing space. They have made this a referendum on Trump by running such an inoffensive candidate against him. They can catch a lot of moderate conservatives who don’t like trump with that strategy.
    He's also called himself a transition candidate. If the US want options for their future, he's a smart choice. If they just want to hunker down inside their respective mutual loathing bubbles and opt for chaos then Trump is the only man for it. I recall being bemused that all dystopian YA novels were set in a version of the US, not any more. I hope for them it's Biden, polls suggest it should be Biden but Trump could still win or try to win. Tomorrow may be a brighter day!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,366 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    20silkcut wrote: »
    That’s why Biden was a good choice by the democrats they are not asking people to back a brave new radical vision or a new era of democratic dominance in the form of a young dynamic Obama/JFK type candidate. They are basically selling a break from the madness of the trump era. Breathing space. They have made this a referendum on Trump by running such an inoffensive candidate against him. They can catch a lot of moderate conservatives who don’t like trump with that strategy.

    Exactly, old white weathered politician who regularly goes to mass, had son in the military and previously had conservative views on gay marriage and abortion after criticising Roe v Wade decision at the time.

    Trying to paint him as a radical leftist intent on socialism is just mad.

    If this was 4 years ago he'd have suffered the same as Hillary, even more so, as Democrats don't think he goes far enough in policy. That time progressive voters stayed away or voted for Gary Johnston and that helped Trump. That cohort now don't care that Biden is a worse option than Hillary, they've learned their lesson and won't want another 4 years of this nonsense.

    Of the 97million early votes, 8million are voters who are voting for the very first time...but an additional 24million are voters who have voted before, but didn't vote in 2016. That's interesting, 25%

    Trump's base is strong, but I don't see where he's picking up votes outside of his base.

    Biden with >5m excess in popular vote for me, and 330+ electoral college votes


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,217 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    8-10 wrote: »
    Exactly, old white weathered politician who regularly goes to mass, had son in the military and previously had conservative views on gay marriage and abortion after criticising Roe v Wade decision at the time.

    Trying to paint him as a radical leftist intent on socialism is just mad.

    If this was 4 years ago he'd have suffered the same as Hillary, even more so, as Democrats don't think he goes far enough in policy. That time progressive voters stayed away or voted for Gary Johnston and that helped Trump. That cohort now don't care that Biden is a worse option than Hillary, they've learned their lesson and won't want another 4 years of this nonsense.

    Of the 97million early votes, 8million are voters who are voting for the very first time...but an additional 24million are voters who have voted before, but didn't vote in 2016. That's interesting, 25%

    Trump's base is strong, but I don't see where he's picking up votes outside of his base.

    Biden with >5m excess in popular vote for me, and 330+ electoral college votes


    He's from the radical left because of his VP, and because of the obvious choice in 4 years time if Biden gets in.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,718 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    ELM327 wrote: »
    He's from the radical left because of his VP, and because of the obvious choice in 4 years time if Biden gets in.

    Kamala Harris, former AG for California, is radical left?? Give over


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,217 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    duploelabs wrote: »
    Kamala Harris, former AG for California, is radical left?? Give over
    Yes


    Govtrack.us, which has been examining the voting records of US politicians for more than fifteen years, declared Harris the most liberal Senator in 2019


    https://www.thearticle.com/kamala-harris-pragmatic-moderate-or-radical-leftist



    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/14/kamala-harris-moderate-not-even-close-welcome-leftist-trojan-horse-operation/


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    ELM327 wrote: »

    In Irish political circles, Kamala would rank just slightly left of Michael Mc Dowell!


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Several below standard , one liner type posts deleted.

    Keep it on topic please.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,217 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    In Irish political circles, Kamala would rank just slightly left of Michael Mc Dowell!


    So, just slightly left of one of the most right wing people we've had in Ireland?The PDs would be just slightly less right than Renua.


    I think thats nonsense. If you're going to come out with hyperbole at least have it make sense.

    3/10 would not reccomend


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,647 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Usually I'd stay up for the first few states to declare, but not this time.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    We may not get an official result tonight, but the lie of the land could become apparent quickly enough. It generally does.


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