Recession predictions

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i understand that, i wasnt pointing that comment towards you.

some of those folks may not have had many choices coming out of school, and if they didnt enjoy school, struggled with the leaving etc, working in a factory could have been the default, again, nothing wrong with it, ive done this type of work myself.

again, women should have the option to work and have kids, obviously humanity needs them to continue having kids, but many women actually work largely due to the issues mentioned above, i.e. low wage inflation, high asset price inflation etc

as ive mentioned, ive worked shifts in a factory, i was mentally challenged to the point of helping to induce mental health issues, ive worked with other lads that had breakdowns, and work was an element of this, ive also worked with people that were forced to take 'stress leave', not mentally challenging, im not so sure about that!



again, is this lifestyle 'choice', really a choice for some? i will agree, some just love making more money, and best of luck to them

if you are earning 85 k and your wife is a nurse or a teacher then yes its a lifestyle choice

brisan wrote: »

I can say without reservation that production people in our factory have no work related stress.
Work 40mins off for 20mins
Sit and watch machine ,or drive a forktruck etc
Fill a sheet in with a few weights and samples every couple of hours
Breakdown happens all head to canteen after a few mins cleaning
Clock in at 8 and out at 4 even if the place is falling down .
Its American owned now but there is 90yrs of British Quaker ownership embedded in the work practices and terms and conditions of employment

could boredom or unfulfillment be considered stressful? one of the main causes of my own issues in that work environment was in fact, i was deeply unfulfilled, i struggled in our educational system, so ended up in that particular job, even though it was a fantastic life experience, it still lead to deep unfulfillment, ive worked with many others that showed similar issues, but remained stuck, for many different reasons, including commitments such as financial and relationships etc

...and long may those work practices remain, i worked in one of those american corporations, an absolutely awful work environment for most, including management, where everyone is encouraged to threat everyone like sh1t

Wanderer78 wrote: »

could boredom or unfulfillment be considered stressful? one of the main causes of my own issues in that work environment was in fact, i was deeply unfulfilled, i struggled in our educational system, so ended up in that particular job, even though it was a fantastic life experience, it still lead to deep unfulfillment, ive worked with many others that showed similar issues, but remained stuck, for many different reasons, including commitments such as financial and relationships etc

...and long may those work practices remain, i worked in one of those american corporations, an absolutely awful work environment for most, including management, where everyone is encouraged to threat everyone like sh1t

IF you are having a handy life getting 30-50 k ,able to get to work in 20 mins and
DO NOT MIND THE BOREDOM then its not an issue
As another poster said some people are happy to stamp washers get paid and go home
There is a saying in our job
Happiness comes in a brown envelope
Harks back to when we were paid in cash
Its not like Intel ,or one of those MNC or pharma companies .
its fairly low tech for them and easy work with no hassle
Junior software engineers in our company would start on less money than some production workers with little or no education
Last 2 years and move on
Looks well on their CV

Geuze wrote: »

This suggestion deserves a separate thread.

I feel that pre-COVID, most of the LT unemployed in Ireland were not unemployed due to a lack of vacancies.

They were either:

unemployable
they choose LT JSA combined with nixers, i.e. they choose to claim JSA as a lifestyle choice
suffer from a skills mismatch


Bear in mind that thousands of immigrants arrive here and managed to get jobs, while there were thousands of LT unemployed.


The (admittedly few) people I know on LT JSA are not unemployed due to a lack of jobs.

One earns 10k JSA + 40k nixer, the other has mild personality issues/couldn't hold down a job.

A Job Guarantee resolves most of that - as it both trains up people into useful roles, and is capable of tailoring roles to accommodate for peoples personal circumstances - so e.g. people with anxiety difficulties say, or even more severe disabilities, can have roles created for them as part of the JG. I think the JG is one of the most beneficial things that can happen for disadvantaged people and communities, due to this.

JSA would still exist alongside the JG - and a JG in full swing would greatly reduce the number of people on JSA, and make it far easier to identify 'genuine' cases of fraud and such.

Another thing is: Bad private sector jobs, with both bad pay and bad working conditions, should not be considered genuine vacancies - as we want to eliminate jobs that do not provide good standards for workers.
A JG achieves this, by ensuring workers always have the JG as an alternative to bad jobs - meaning that the JG sets a floor both for wages, and for working conditions in the economy - boosting workers bargaining power in the process.

completedit wrote: »

Dust off the printing press and make it go brrrrrrr

QE started already, it started in 2014.

Since 2014, the ECB has created money and used it to purchase 2,800 billion euro of financial assets:







That excludes the new PEPP, to help deal with COVID.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/pepp/html/index.en.html

The PEPP is now planned to be 1,350 billion, on top of the 2,940 billion in APP so far.

500bn of the PEPP has been created/spent by end of August.

completedit wrote: »

Make it faster

3,440 billion of QE done already, is that fast enough??

Timing belt wrote: »

The QE is keeping the longer term rates low to encourage investment and at the same time injecting cash into the financial institutions that are pledging/selling the debt to the ecb.

OK, yes, long-term bond yields have fallen, yes.

This helps corporate bond issuers and Govt bonds, yes, ok.

But here in Ireland, the effectiveness is less, as the fall in wholesale costs isn't fully passed onto retail mortgage rates.

greenfield21 wrote: »

More Great numbers out of the EU today. It seems so long ago I listened to one of my favourite talking heads saying central banks can't keep printing money for ever but for way longer than we think.

thank god they can never run out of the stuff, or we d be screwed

Timing belt wrote: »

The retail mortgage rates are so high because of the volume of mortgages in default and the extra capital the bank has to hold. The only way to get lower rates is to get rid of default mortgages either through repossession or selling the assets to a fund.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/no-single-fix-for-distressed-loans-warns-central-banks-ed-sibley-39571088.html

...but this still doesnt resolve our overall housing and accommodation issues

Timing belt wrote: »

No it doesn’t as it is a supply issue and more houses need to be built.

It’s not profitable to build as there is a risk of selling at a loss if supply is delivered and there is a drop (even small) in house prices.

yup, its a really messy situation, and its disturbing to see, theres been literally no solution for over 10 years now, we ve no choice but to allow the state to try solve this one, even if the state only plays a financing role

Timing belt wrote: »

Yes it needs something to break the deadlock. As long as building costs are so high it’s not going to change.

you could argue that intervention caused the issue with Nama stepping in keeping land values high if they didn’t the market would have found its own level and building would have started again as there would be money to be made. I am not saying Nama was the wrong thing to do just pointing out that everytime there is human intervention there are always unforeseen consequences.

again, we truly need to walk away from this idea of the market finding its own equilibrium, this is not our reality at all, it never has been, its a fantasy idea we ve convinced ourselves of, and it has never happened anywhere in the world, ever. providing the finance publicly, may just unlock this deadlock, and might just stimulate the private sector, particularly the construction industry.

Timing belt wrote: »

Unfortunately it would probably make the matter worse as it would increase supply and reduce house prices inflation leading to less building. That’s not saying it is the right thing to do just that this will be a consequence of gov intervention. The only way it will be permanently unlocked is cheaper labour, input costs or some sort of efficiency,

Obviously you don’t want construction workers taking a cut as if that happens it feeds back into the problem as they won’t be able to buy property. If the government were able to lower land values via taxation this might solve the issue but don’t see that happening anytime soon.

Regardless of this houses need to be built ASAP.

unfortunately, our current economic approaches default towards the highlighted, we cant keep playing this game, particularly cheaper labour, and productivity levels are at an all time high, theres only so many layers on an onion here!

i completely agree with a lvt, even though i dont fully understand it, but most commentators i follow, advocate for it, so i think you re right there.

yup, building needed to start over 10 years ago, but here we are....

brisan wrote: »

Only option is to free up Gov land and let builders build at a set cost and margin
If you buy and sell within 10 years Government gets a percentage of the profits depending on length of time between purchase and sale

That would work but government would loose out on the 1.9bn Nama cash flow each year. It makes interesting reading to see what land they are still sitting on.

https://www.nama.ie/our-work/search-property