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Recession predictions

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    #782
    Healy_Rayban
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16 ✭Healy_Rayban


    Just want to give my input. Things are not bad out there at all.

    I can't give details on it but I can assure you some of the major employers have lots of potential for cuts in the next year if this continues.


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    #783
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Healy_Rayban wrote: »
    Just want to give my input. Things are not bad out there at all.

    I can't give details on it but I can assure you some of the major employers have lots of potential for cuts in the next year if this continues.

    Yes there are cuts coming but will be different by sector. The agri/food sector will have big cuts if Brexit no deal happens. The banks will need to cut costs so will have redundancies. The finance sector will tighten there belt but multinational’s don’t seem to be impacted. Most of these cuts are probably already in track and are being negotiated with unions at the moment.


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    #784
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Timing belt wrote:
    Yes there are cuts coming but will be different by sector. The agri/food sector will have big cuts if Brexit no deal happens. The banks will need to cut costs so will have redundancies. The finance sector will tighten there belt but multinational’s don’t seem to be impacted. Most of these cuts are probably already in track and are being negotiated with unions at the moment.


    What do you mean by the financial sector tightening it's belt?

    It's critical that the national debt is expanded, as the contraction of the private sector is looking bad


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    #785
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    What do you mean by the financial sector tightening it's belt?

    It's critical that the national debt is expanded, as the contraction of the private sector is looking bad

    I am taking about the private sector as in the finance industry will experience job cuts.


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    #786
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Timing belt wrote:
    I am taking about the private sector as in the finance industry will experience job cuts.


    Yea I'd agree, it probably will, along side many other industries, unfortunately, we need to protect as many jobs as possible, particularly in the private sector.

    It truly is critical that we continue to expand the money supply via the public sector now, or this could all go horribly wrong, very quickly


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    #787
    Tea drinker
    Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    Healy_Rayban wrote: »
    Just want to give my input. Things are not bad out there at all.

    I can't give details on it but I can assure you some of the major employers have lots of potential for cuts in the next year if this continues.
    You need to elaborate a bit more than my tea leaves did this morning


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    #788
    Healy_Rayban
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16 ✭Healy_Rayban


    Tea drinker wrote: »
    You need to elaborate a bit more than my tea leaves did this morning

    Let's just say, the big employers are benefitting from this pandemic as employees working from home means less costs.


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    #789
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Healy_Rayban wrote: »
    Let's just say, the big employers are benefitting from this pandemic as employees working from home means less costs.

    big employers are nearly always winning, its set up for them to win, even when everyone else is losing


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    #790
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    Well a multinational my misses works at...had let folks off temporarily during CoVid19, have rehired them all and are hiring new staff as well as launching a new product (not regeneron before folks ask)


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    #791
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    c.p.w.g.w wrote: »
    Well a multinational my misses works at...had let folks off temporarily during CoVid19, have rehired them all and are hiring new staff as well as launching a new product (not regeneron before folks ask)

    ...so gained by breaking employment contracts, and probably loads of other gains....


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    #792
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    It looks like there will be another round of central bank announcements to stimulate economies. The US market has already priced this in and it looks like the UK are going to go with negative rates.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/12/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rate-borrowing


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    #793
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Timing belt wrote: »
    It looks like there will be another round of central bank announcements to stimulate economies. The US market has already priced this in and it looks like the UK are going to go with negative rates.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/12/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rate-borrowing

    ...should work well, for asset markets!


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    #794
    Tea drinker
    Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    ...should work well, for asset markets!

    Meanwhile we get shafted with mortgage rate, and soon to be charged negative rates on deposit :-)

    Picking my head up off the table, what would you throw 10K at if you could (reasonably) afford to lose it?


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    #795
    Fuascailteoir
    Registered Users Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Fuascailteoir


    Tea drinker wrote: »
    Meanwhile we get shafted with mortgage rate, and soon to be charged negative rates on deposit :-)

    Picking my head up off the table, what would you throw 10K at if you could (reasonably) afford to lose it?

    Pole dancers


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    #796
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Tea drinker wrote: »
    Picking my head up off the table, what would you throw 10K at if you could (reasonably) afford to lose it?

    Prize Bonds :-) No if I was not afraid to lose it then I would probably buy airline shares as they are rock bottom and its not like people are going to stop flying when covid is over. But there is a big risk that the airline goes bankrupt in the meantime.

    EDIT: Actually I think I would short Apple (or Tech stock) as their share price is not justified at the moment. A 53% increase since 31/12/2019 its not like they have released a new life changing product and yes they may sell more iPhone with stimulus cheques in America but I am still not buying it and think there is a bubble here waiting to be popped and all that is happening is the money from the QE is creating the bubble just like it what happened with the dot.com bubble. (e.g. Fed Cut rates which helped generate the bubble)

    How it will be popped not to sure but if you look at the top shareholders they are all funds/investment banks so if there are significant losses in these sectors they may need to sell off equities in a fire sale leading to a crash in the Stock market.


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    #797
    Darc19
    Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    ...so gained by breaking employment contracts, and probably loads of other gains....

    The negative ninnies just hate positive news.

    Where I work staff numbers are up considerably this year and further recruitment is expected before Christmas.

    Same in many competitors.


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    #798
    Darc19
    Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    Tea drinker wrote: »
    Meanwhile we get shafted with mortgage rate, and soon to be charged negative rates on deposit :-)

    41,000 mortgage holders are in arrears of 90 days or more (not including any on covid breaks)

    Over 10,000 are over 3 years in arrears.

    YOU are paying for their free living and all the legal costs associated with it.


    In countries where mortgage rates are 1.5% a house is automatically repossessed after 3-6 months and new owners in situ a couple of months later if you don't agree and keep to new terms.


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    #799
    KyussB
    Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭KyussB


    If bankers had it their way, we'd have a foreclosure crisis like in the US, where mass fraud was used to illegally repossess peoples homes. The more difficult it is to repossess, and prolonged the process is (to maximize chances of debtors returning to servicing), the better.

    Assets tied to mortgages don't just disappear - their value is covered. What is missed out on is the interest - and the interest from 10k or even 40k people, is tiny...(and doesn't just disappear either, unless a peson defaults fully)


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    #800
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Darc19 wrote:
    The negative ninnies just hate positive news.

    More like a realist, we can't keep encouraging this precariousness, it's lethal for society and our economy, it's also causing serious issues with our pension funds, so its actually affecting us all
    Darc19 wrote:
    41,000 mortgage holders are in arrears of 90 days or more (not including any on covid breaks)

    Thank God we ve an accommodation back up plan in place, if such a situation of repossessions takes place! I wonder does our current 'back up plan' cost the tax payers much, hardly!

    Creditors hardly play any part in all of this, do they!


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    #801
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Tea drinker wrote:
    Meanwhile we get shafted with mortgage rate, and soon to be charged negative rates on deposit :-)

    I like the idea of dual rates, but it's a radical idea and central banks prefer plain vanilla policies, so......


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    #802
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    I like the idea of dual rates, but it's a radical idea and central banks prefer plain vanilla policies, so......

    What do you mean by dual rate?


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    #803
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Timing belt wrote:
    What do you mean by dual rate?

    The idea is, central banks can run two different rates simultaneously, for example, positive on deposits, negative on credit, probably won't happen though, but it is being knocked around, Eric lonergan is talking about it at the moment, said it's doable, but.....


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    #804
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    The idea is, central banks can run two different rates simultaneously, for example, positive on deposits, negative on credit, probably won't happen though, but it is being knocked around, Eric lonergan is talking about it at the moment, said it's doable, but.....

    I don't get it.... what benefit would it bring


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    #805
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Timing belt wrote:
    I don't get it.... what benefit would it bring

    I'd imagine depositors are well pi$$ed off with current rates, I know I am, but central banks are trying to stimulate economies with ever reducing rates, hence shafting depositors, but if they introduced dual rates, they might break our current cycle, probably won't happen though


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    #806
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    I'd imagine depositors are well pi$$ed off with current rates, I know I am, but central banks are trying to stimulate economies with ever reducing rates, hence shafting depositors, but if they introduced dual rates, they might break our current cycle, probably won't happen though

    Rates are low (soon to be negative) for retail customer deposits to encourage people to spend the cash and stimulate the economy.


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    #807
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Timing belt wrote:
    Rates are low (soon to be negative) for retail customer deposits to encourage people to spend the cash and stimulate the economy.

    Why do people save, and why are people currently increasing their savings?


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    #808
    howamidifferent
    Registered Users Posts: 1,817 ✭✭✭howamidifferent


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Why do people save, and why are people currently increasing their savings?

    To prepare for financial armegeddon?


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    #809
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    howamidifferent wrote: »
    To prepare for financial armegeddon?

    well armageddon is a little too strong of a word, but people increase savings because of rising uncertainty, increasing possibility of job loss etc, its a human behavioural reaction, and its normal, but a far from easy one to resolve, but our current economic thinking is not open to this reality, and our political system is currently defaulting to the norm in its thinking for a resolution, i.e. encourage spending and borrowing, particularly in the private domain!


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    #810
    wassie
    Registered Users Posts: 3,274 ✭✭✭wassie


    KyussB wrote: »
    If bankers had it their way, we'd have a foreclosure crisis like in the US, where mass fraud was used to illegally repossess peoples homes. The more difficult it is to repossess, and prolonged the process is (to maximize chances of debtors returning to servicing), the better.

    Assets tied to mortgages don't just disappear - their value is covered. What is missed out on is the interest - and the interest from 10k or even 40k people, is tiny...(and doesn't just disappear either, unless a peson defaults fully)
    I don't think anyone here is advocating a US style non-recourse home loan system here.

    It well acknowledged that the inability to repossess houses in Ireland where homeowners are strategically defaulting comes at a real cost to the rest of us in the form of higher interest rates.


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    #811
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    wassie wrote:
    It well acknowledged that the inability to repossess houses in Ireland where homeowners are strategically defaulting comes at a real cost to the rest of us in the form of higher interest rates.


    All very true, but do we have an actual backup stock of accommodation available for these people?


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