Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk · 21-08-2020 11:48am

Seems like the talks are going well then,

Brexit trade talks actually 'going backwards', warns EU's Michel Barnier

Brexit trade talks between the UK and EU are actually "going backwards" as negotiators "waste valuable time", Brussels' chief negotiator has said.

A visibly annoyed Michel Barnier told reporters on Friday after a week-long round of talks that on some subjects there had been "no progress whatsoever on the issues that matter".

"Too often this week it felt as if we were going backwards more than forward. Given the short time left ... today at this stage an agreement between the UK and the European Union seems unlikely. I still do not understand why we are wasting valuable time," he said.

David Frost, the UK's chief negotiator, said in a written statement that he believed "agreement is still possible" but that "it is clear that it will not be easy to achieve".

So either no FTA or BRINO. I suspect many think Johnson will go for BRINO because he caved on the WA, but I wonder with the majority he has now and the threat of violence relatively pushed into the background with the Irish Sea border whether Johnson will lazy himself into a no-deal.

I think if this happens we will look back to when he announced David Frost as the negotiator that the die was cast for no-deal on a FTA. He seems as delusional as the best of them unlike Olly Robbins who was aware of the situation the UK is really in.

johnnyskeleton · 21-08-2020 11:48am

sandbelter wrote: »

Actually (and this is my Economic's training talking here), initially I expect Brexit to surprise on the upside. Cheap imports will improve purchasing power and the illusion of prosperity. We saw a similar uptick in Ireland in the 1930's after start of the trade war and in Argentina in the 1950's when Peron came on board.

Brexit is about long term growth and law of compounding math. Factories won't automatically close on Jan 1 2020, owners will try to recoup as much of their original investment as they can, when that is done they will close. That may be a slower but also a more remorseless and irreversible process than imagined.

It's that 0.5% per year that puts you on a lower growth trajectory, which compounded over time can can yield stark results. NZ opted out of the Australian Commonwealth when it had a higher standard of living, a century later and it's GDP per capita is roughly 66% of Australia's with a persistent outflow to Australia every year.

This' what Brexit looks like: long and slow.

With one caveat - the devaluation of sterling by c. 30% since before the vote and its consistently staying there means that the UK is approximately 30% poorer relatove to the rest of the world since the Brexit vote. So some of the Brexit damage has been done so long ago that its hard to remember it being done!

reslfj · 21-08-2020 12:49pm

fash wrote: »

It wouldn't take too much to convince the average brexiter.

Changing UK excise duty/VAT has never had anything to do with the EU. It is - within very wide limits - regulated by UK laws - and only UK laws.

Brexiters may be convinced, but it's still not true.

Lars

Enzokk · 21-08-2020 1:03pm

David Gauke, who had the whip removed from him by Johnson last year before losing his seat in parliament has this reaction to the current state of play,

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1296758685415374849?s=20

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1296761694396583936?s=20

So basically the government has not accepted what is needed to get a deal. The UK will blame the EU if there isn't a deal and Brexiteers will eat this up. Johnson signed up to the WA because it was the only way to leave the EU, but with his majority now there is no constraints on him accepting no FTA deal.

Geuze · 21-08-2020 1:19pm

Enzokk wrote: »

So either no FTA or BRINO. I suspect many think Johnson will go for BRINO because he caved on the WA, but I wonder with the majority he has now and the threat of violence relatively pushed into the background with the Irish Sea border whether Johnson will lazy himself into a no-deal.

What is BRINO?

21-08-2020 1:20pm

Geuze wrote: »

What is BRINO?

Brexit in name only

moon2 · 21-08-2020 1:24pm

Geuze wrote: »

What is BRINO?

Brexit In Name Only.

The simplistic description is: nothing changes except the UK lose their ability to vote on EU matters. They continue to abide by the vast majority of EU regulations and as a result maintain access to the EU market for the vast majority of their goods and services.

If this approach were followed I'm sure there'd be some level of divergence which makes the simplistic explanation somewhat inaccurate.

The Raging Bile Duct · 21-08-2020 1:44pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

With one caveat - the devaluation of sterling by c. 30% since before the vote and its consistently staying there means that the UK is approximately 30% poorer relatove to the rest of the world since the Brexit vote. So some of the Brexit damage has been done so long ago that its hard to remember it being done!

Add in the fact that Britain is experiencing it's deepest recession on record... I can't see there being any sort of uptick that benefits Joe Soap.

CelticRambler · 21-08-2020 1:57pm

Enzokk wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1296758685415374849?s=20

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1296761694396583936?s=20

So basically the government has not accepted what is needed to get a deal. The UK will blame the EU if there isn't a deal and Brexiteers will eat this up. Johnson signed up to the WA because it was the only way to leave the EU, but with his majority now there is no constraints on him accepting no FTA deal.

Going down that rabbit hole and out the other side took me to this opinion piece regarding the government's Brexit readiness communication:

The government doesn’t seem to have learnt the lessons of last year’s ‘Get ready for Brexit’ campaign – which failed to drive preparedness amongst business. [...] The bigger firms will have had plans in place for no deal last year that can be adapted for the end of 2020. But smaller and medium sized businesses largely failed to prepare in 2019 and will have even less capacity to think about the implications of the end of the transition period.

The government has pledged further support for these kinds of businesses as the crunch point draws closer. But continuing with an advertising campaign which fails to convey any useful messaging about what steps to take and what will happen if these steps aren’t taken will only place more pressure on these other interventions succeeding.

This might not make for the type of advertising campaign that the government would prefer to run, and it is understandable that ministers want to trumpet opportunities rather than warn about problems. But it is also short-sighted. Better preparation will reduce disruption, so people need to be told exactly what they need to do to prepare – and how.

Few people have checked, let alone changed. Unless the government alters its message, spelling out what will change as a result of Brexit as well as the consequences of failing to prepare, then many businesses and citizens will end up going nowhere.

If the Covid crisis has taught us anything, it's that the current British government doesn't do preparation; and only alters its message once even the lamest old donkey has had time to shuffle out of the unbolted stable.

An Ciarraioch · 21-08-2020 3:29pm

Time to shake the rust off your Leaving Cert French, as Barnier expresses his frustration at the current state of talks, particularly over transport and the Irish Protocol:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_20_1511

CelticRambler · 21-08-2020 5:50pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Time to shake the rust off your Leaving Cert French, as Barnier expresses his frustration at the current state of talks, particularly over transport and the Irish Protocol:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_20_1511

There's a nice little snippet in there, too, that should rattle a cage or two on British side of the Channel:

Et évidemment, en tout état de cause, pourquoi devrions-nous donner accès à nos routes à des transporteurs routiers qui refuseraient d'appliquer des règles pourtant indispensables aux bonnes conditions de travail et à la sécurité de tous ?

Pourquoi devrions-nous aussi permettre aux transporteurs aériens britanniques d'opérer les mêmes lignes que les opérateurs européens s'ils ne sont pas liés par des standards comparables en matière de protection de l'environnement ou des passagers ?

Loosely translated and paraphrased: Why should we let hauliers use our roads if they're not going to respect our road safety regulations? Why should we let British airlines fly in our airspace if they're not going to apply our standards for the protection of passengers and the environment?

Prefaced by a comment indicating that he's been reading the British press, this could almost be interpreted as a warning directly to the British public that they are going to see unwelcome changes soon, even if their own government doesn't really want to talk about them. See Maddy Thimont Jack's piece linked above.

Enzokk · 21-08-2020 6:17pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Time to shake the rust off your Leaving Cert French, as Barnier expresses his frustration at the current state of talks, particularly over transport and the Irish Protocol:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_20_1511

For someone that didn't go near French, right-click on the page and there should be an option to "translate to English".

There was a report yesterday that the UK did hand over confidential negotiating text to the EU to try and find a way past the impasse, or at least that is how it was reported,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1296717723972534273?s=20

This thread explain why it isn't all it is being reported to be. This is just the text that both sides will use to determine where there is alignment in objectives, where there is a legal difference in basically the same position and then the big one, fundamental differences between the sides. I guess much like how during the WA negotiations there was the document with green, amber and red passages marked which would indicate how close these are to completion.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1296717726854066176?s=20

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1296717729861382145?s=20

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1296717733300756481?s=20

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1296717737268588544?s=20

So basically, the breakthrough being touted with these texts are not a breakthrough because the differences are not technical but political. The texts are just a technical exercise to help both sides determine where the differences lie between them.

Professor Moriarty · 21-08-2020 6:43pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's a nice little snippet in there, too, that should rattle a cage or two on British side of the Channel:

Loosely translated and paraphrased: Why should we let hauliers use our roads if they're not going to respect our road safety regulations? Why should we let British airlines fly in our airspace if they're not going to apply our standards for the protection of passengers and the environment?

Prefaced by a comment indicating that he's been reading the British press, this could almost be interpreted as a warning directly to the British public that they are going to see unwelcome changes soon, even if their own government doesn't really want to talk about them. See Maddy Thimont Jack's piece linked above.

Unfortunately, the UK will do the same to our hauliers. They'll use us as hostages. It's what I'd do if I were them.

Professor Moriarty · 21-08-2020 7:53pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Except UK imports alot more than it exports, deliberately slowing landbridge traffic also hurts NI. And finally EU would have no issues ploughing money into more sea routes, at its core EU prides itself in building bridges literally and figuratively.

Such a move hurts them more. What's that saying brexiters use? They need us more than we need them.

In 2017, 85% of Irish freight trade to the EU went via the UK landbridge. And that doesn't take into account our exports to the UK. If they play hardball, we will take a serious cold shower no matter how the EU tries to help.

Professor Moriarty · 21-08-2020 8:02pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

At least we wouldn't starve unlike them. It's a very simple solution for EU to solve detain their traffic for same length of time.

It is. I think it's bluff and bluster but this Tory party is stupid enough to possibly try it. They would ultimately cave in but would have done serious damage to us in the interim.

Sam Russell · 21-08-2020 8:05pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In 2017, 85% of Irish freight trade to the EU went via the UK landbridge. And that doesn't take into account our exports to the UK. If they play hardball, we will take a serious cold shower no matter how the EU tries to help.

After WW II, in 1948, the Russians closed the autobahn into Berlin, effectively blockading Berlin. The Allies (USA Britain and France airlifted everything needed to supply Berlin for nearly a year until the Russians reopened the Autobahn.

The EU could do something similar for us. Hopefully. More ships, more routes, faster turnaround.

L1011 · 21-08-2020 8:14pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In 2017, 85% of Irish freight trade to the EU went via the UK landbridge. And that doesn't take into account our exports to the UK. If they play hardball, we will take a serious cold shower no matter how the EU tries to help.

That figure has dropped year on year since then as additional sea routes bypassing the UK opened up, fully expecting this

Capt'n Midnight · 21-08-2020 8:24pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In 2017, 85% of Irish freight trade to the EU went via the UK landbridge. And that doesn't take into account our exports to the UK. If they play hardball, we will take a serious cold shower no matter how the EU tries to help.

TIR is where cargo can go through third countries without customs before the final destination, provided it's carried by truck at some point.

Rip up TIR and UK imports from China by train through Germany or through Rotterdam by ship will face EU customs before they get to the UK.

fash · 21-08-2020 9:04pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Unfortunately, the UK will do the same to our hauliers. They'll use us as hostages. It's what I'd do if I were them.

I believe that aside from being dealt with in the TIR and the common transit convention, it is also dealt with in the Withdrawal Agreement.
So there is already a triple lock on the UK using Irish hauliers as hostages.

RobMc59 · 21-08-2020 9:06pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is. I think it's bluff and bluster but this Tory party is stupid enough to possibly try it. They would ultimately cave in but would have done serious damage to us in the interim.

In the hypothetical situations being suggested here,it`s unlikely there would be any agreement on sea lanes or air traffic control which would make it difficult for everyone.

listermint · 21-08-2020 10:30pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

In the hypothetical situations being suggested here,it`s unlikely there would be any agreement on sea lanes or air traffic control which would make it difficult for everyone.

I'd most definitely live with it if it shows up the tory party for the absolute charlatans that they are. They need an absolute kicking from he public and it's long overdue. I think the blaming the EU will get them around 3 inches and after that nahh the public will have and enough. The mistake the Tories make are that there's a war spirit or some other doe eyed guff that will mean people will follow them into the dark.

fash · 22-08-2020 3:15am

reslfj wrote: »

Changing UK excise duty/VAT has never had anything to do with the EU. It is - within very wide limits - regulated by UK laws - and only UK laws.

Brexiters may be convinced, but it's still not true.

Lars

It worked with the blue passports, it can work with this - they aren't the brightest of folk.

RobMc59 · 22-08-2020 9:28am

listermint wrote: »

I'd most definitely live with it if it shows up the tory party for the absolute charlatans that they are. They need an absolute kicking from he public and it's long overdue. I think the blaming the EU will get them around 3 inches and after that nahh the public will have and enough. The mistake the Tories make are that there's a war spirit or some other doe eyed guff that will mean people will follow them into the dark.

You're probably right about the public needing to turn on the tories.I find it very depressing that the majority of voters were taken in by Johnson's 'patriotic slogans 'which had/have zero substance but as you say, appeals to the easily impressionable.Coupled to Johnson and his cabinets willingness to spout barefaced lies it may take the UK having to swallow the bitter pill of failure before it can fix itself.

Infini · 22-08-2020 1:57pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In 2017, 85% of Irish freight trade to the EU went via the UK landbridge. And that doesn't take into account our exports to the UK. If they play hardball, we will take a serious cold shower no matter how the EU tries to help.

It make's little difference, as in the short term it might cause some pain but in the longer term it will backfire spetacularly expecially if Trump and friends are finally ejected in November and some sanity returns to the US. It would also cause more traffic to veer away from the UK as well not to mention reprocipical measures happening against the UK at the same time by the EU. Worst case we have to increase air cargo into Ireland in the short term (though thanks to the pandemic this would likely be welcomed by Aviation) but long term it would be extremely corrosive to the UK to do something like that which looks bad politcally and diplomatically.

Capt'n Midnight · 22-08-2020 2:11pm

fash wrote: »

It worked with the blue passports, it can work with this - they aren't the brightest of folk.

Not just blue passports.

It'll work for blue cheese too, if they can beat the Japanese in the trade negotiations. According to UK government figures, a “modelled” trade deal with Japan might add 0.07 per cent to Britain’s GDP in the long term, So it might be less than 0.07% ?

BTW in the grand scheme of UK exports £100,000 would only get you about 70% of the cheapest McLaren, the 540C.

The EU and US have agreed a partial trade deal. The UK had better take notes, they'll need them later.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0821/1160611-us-and-eu-agree-limited-trade-deal/

Trump has put heavy pressure to clinch the zero-tariff lobster deal, especially after the EU entered a trade deal with Canada which also exports the shellfish.

The US wins !

The EU will allow North American lobsters tariff free. Because they already did, from Canada. But some of the US tariffs on other goods have been removed so the EU wins.

Actually US lobster trade to China is way down because of the tit-for-tat tariffs. So US lobster exporters are still hampered by Trump's actions.

Canada's lobsters to China are tariff free since 2017. And to the EU.

Here's the thing, the UK needs to get at least as good a deal with the US and Japan and Canada and all the other countries than they would have got by default by being in the EU otherwise what was the point ?

Remember too that the UK used to influence EU trade deals to the UK's advantage so even that is setting the bar low.

Capt'n Midnight · 22-08-2020 2:32pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In 2017, 85% of Irish freight trade to the EU went via the UK landbridge. And that doesn't take into account our exports to the UK. If they play hardball, we will take a serious cold shower no matter how the EU tries to help.

50% of the ferry traffic on the Irish Sea is already unaccompanied. Trailers are dropped at one ferry port and picked up by a different truck and driver at the next. UK truckers on the Land Bridge gets past most of the regs.

As pointed out before if there's customs gridlock at the Kent ports then the easiest way to keep things moving is prioritise the ones that don't need customs checks like the empty trucks heading back to France and the TIR ones to Ireland. Otherwise they'll need massive parking areas.

We should be OK as long as they don't threaten to starve us out.

30% of UK food is imported from the EU. Of that 30% 73% of that is from the EU. So lots of fresh food that delaying would be shooting themselves in the foot.

An Claidheamh · 22-08-2020 3:29pm

At this stage, an economic war would be preferable to another 5 years of UK bs.

Agree, that the freight ships would have to up their game, but cutting of Britain’s food supply is probably the only sanction that would make a brainwashed public to turn on their government.

EU would easily win a trade war. And it would’ve quick.

Weak link would be the Irish government afraid to offend the UK and the grip the British media have in Ireland.

View · 22-08-2020 3:56pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In 2017, 85% of Irish freight trade to the EU went via the UK landbridge. And that doesn't take into account our exports to the UK. If they play hardball, we will take a serious cold shower no matter how the EU tries to help.

Given that we have had more than four years to prepare for a hard “no deal” Brexit, if we haven’t got our act together at this stage, then we deserve to get a “cold shower”.

CelticRambler · 22-08-2020 5:04pm

View wrote: »

Given that we have had more than four years to prepare for a hard “no deal” Brexit, if we haven’t got our act together at this stage, then we deserve to get a “cold shower”.

I'm inclined to agree with this. Whatever difficulties might afflict British businesses, to a certain extent it's outside of their control - they really cannot make alternative arrangements because everything will change for them. Irish businesses, however, have the whole of the rest of the EU to buy from and to sell to, and on the back of EU trade deals, most of the rest of the world is available too on terms that are sure and certain. At this stage, any Irish business that is still neck-deep in the British market probably deserves to sink with that ship.

Gerry T · 22-08-2020 5:19pm

View wrote:

Given that we have had more than four years to prepare for a hard â€œno dealâ€ Brexit, if we havenâ€™t got our act together at this stage, then we deserve to get a â€œcold showerâ€.

In 2016 Varadkar put in place plans, first he made changes at dublin port to accommodate much larger ships, he then negotiated with a Luxembourg shipping company who built the largest RoRo freight ferry in the world, the MV Celine, which will service Dublin and mainland EU. Then V had a second and almost as large ship the MV Delphine. Both are now operational. These are big, the Celine has 8km of freight lanes to take trucks/containers.

My understanding is we can now ship 80% of exports direct to Europe, bypassing the UK. It does take longer but when chaos starts in UK ports I can see most IRL freight carriers going this route.

Secondly Brittany ferries can easily reroute to France from IRL, its in their interest not to lose the business.

listermint · 22-08-2020 6:43pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'm inclined to agree with this. Whatever difficulties might afflict British businesses, to a certain extent it's outside of their control - they really cannot make alternative arrangements because everything will change for them. Irish businesses, however, have the whole of the rest of the EU to buy from and to sell to, and on the back of EU trade deals, most of the rest of the world is available too on terms that are sure and certain. At this stage, any Irish business that is still neck-deep in the British market probably deserves to sink with that ship.

You'll find a huge portion of that British business and people within it voted for the Tories in waves again at the GE. So sympathy is somewhat lacking traditional Tory voters didn't seem to move away from them....

kub · 22-08-2020 10:27pm

Gerry T wrote: »

In 2016 Varadkar put in place plans, first he made changes at dublin port to accommodate much larger ships, he then negotiated with a Luxembourg shipping company who built the largest RoRo freight ferry in the world, the MV Celine, which will service Dublin and mainland EU. Then V had a second and almost as large ship the MV Delphine. Both are now operational. These are big, the Celine has 8km of freight lanes to take trucks/containers.

My understanding is we can now ship 80% of exports direct to Europe, bypassing the UK. It does take longer but when chaos starts in UK ports I can see most IRL freight carriers going this route.

Secondly Brittany ferries can easily reroute to France from IRL, its in their interest not to lose the business.

On the ball, since Brexit those services you mentioned ex Dublin have started, Brittany Ferries introduced a service directly from Ringaskiddy to Santander which was subsequently transferred to Rosslare.

Also there is another new service between Ringaskiddy to Zeebrugge for Ro/ Ro commercial traffic.

Those on top of all the other Brittany and Irish Ferries services to our Main Land.

So if services to to UK were interrupted, for whatever reason, I believe the only issue for us is increased travel time.

allthedoyles · 22-08-2020 11:24pm

Also Maersk are running a weekly service from Waterford Port to Rotterdam started a year ago.

23-08-2020 12:22am

It's very important from a negotiations point of view those significant efforts were made.

McGiver · 23-08-2020 2:11am

Regarding Barniers comments, not sure if you mentioned the following, there was an English translation in between and his closing remarks are yummy.

Given the short time left, what I said in London in July remains true:

Today, at this stage, an agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union seems unlikely.

I simply do not understand why we are wasting valuable time.

That's absolutely brutal, this is a public document for the EU audience but is on the EU website. Barnier always used diplomatic language, if he says this then I believe it's a game over, no deal.

Professor Moriarty · 23-08-2020 9:48am

kub wrote: »

On the ball, since Brexit those services you mentioned ex Dublin have started, Brittany Ferries introduced a service directly from Ringaskiddy to Santander which was subsequently transferred to Rosslare.

Also there is another new service between Ringaskiddy to Zeebrugge for Ro/ Ro commercial traffic.

Those on top of all the other Brittany and Irish Ferries services to our Main Land.

So if services to to UK were interrupted, for whatever reason, I believe the only issue for us is increased travel time.

Increased travel time from 20 hours to a minimum of 40 hours for RoRo and 60 hours for LoLo with consequential very negative impacts for JIT goods and not just agri-food. The idea that a No Brexit scenario won't hurt us all that much, and sure it'll be grand, makes no sense. Here is a quote from this blog on the IIEA website written in June by Tom Ferris, former chief economist in the Dept. of Transport:

"How significant is the landbridge? The IMDO used CSO trade figures and port traffic statistics to measure the scale of landbridge traffics. It concluded that – “…the volume of RoRo traffic using the Landbridge to transport goods to and from European ports is approximately 3,000,000 tonnes, which equates to around 150,000 Heavy Goods Vehicles (approximately 16% of the RoRo traffic between Ireland and Britain)”. This shows that the landbridge is an important route to market for many Irish importers and exporters. The introduction of border procedures between the UK and Ireland and between the UK and the continent will impact negatively on the efficiency and speed of land bridge routes. And procedures can take many forms, ranging from tariffs, customs controls (and delays) to the application of different vehicle standards and road charging."

Sam Russell · 23-08-2020 10:10am

McGiver wrote: »

Regarding Barniers comments, not sure if you mentioned the following, there was an English translation in between and his closing remarks are yummy.

That's absolutely brutal, this is a public document for the EU audience but is on the EU website. Barnier always used diplomatic language, if he says this then I believe it's a game over, no deal.

Just as an aside, I read the Barnier piece in French (my French is OK but not by any means fluent) before I worked out how to use Google translate. I thought the quality of the translation was excellent, with the exception of one phrase - 'a la carte' which should be translated as 'a la carte', but was not. Barnier had a few paragraphs in English in the original text.

He is very diplomatic - and this is him being very diplomatic. I wonder what he actually thinks.

Professor Moriarty · 23-08-2020 10:19am

Sam Russell wrote: »

Just as an aside, I read the Barnier piece in French (my French is OK but not by any means fluent) before I worked out how to use Google translate. I thought the quality of the translation was excellent, with the exception of one phrase - 'a la carte' which should be translated as 'a la carte', but was not. Barnier had a few paragraphs in English in the original text.

He is very diplomatic - and this is him being very diplomatic. I wonder what he actually thinks.

I would imagine that he sees this particular Tory government much as most other EU citizens see it. Populist, elitist, nationalist.

Sam Russell · 23-08-2020 10:24am

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Increased travel time from 20 hours to a minimum of 40 hours for RoRo and 60 hours for LoLo with consequential very negative impacts for JIT goods and not just agri-food. The idea that a No Brexit scenario won't hurt us all that much, and sure it'll be grand, makes no sense. Here is a quote from this blog on the IIEA website written in June by Tom Ferris, former chief economist in the Dept. of Transport:

The point about JIT goods is not transit time but arrival time - and how reliable that arrival time is. They have to arrive 'just in time'. The real problem is transporting perishable goods as their shelf life is reduced, which is a real cost to businesses, as it reduces the time goods can be stocked and still be in date. Even this can be countered by better packing and transit conditions for the goods.

JIT goods are shipped all over the world by tramp steamers, RORO freight ferries, or by aircraft, and what matters is the cost of transport, and reliable shipping times. Slow transport only affects high value goods, and really very high value goods.

Poor reliability requires larger buffer stocks which is a cost of storage but also requires trans shipping into a store house and out again - which is triple handling, and should be avoided, as is the cost of that storehouse. All to be avoided when margins are tight - as they always are.

johnnyskeleton · 23-08-2020 10:36am

McGiver wrote: »

Regarding Barniers comments, not sure if you mentioned the following, there was an English translation in between and his closing remarks are yummy.

That's absolutely brutal, this is a public document for the EU audience but is on the EU website. Barnier always used diplomatic language, if he says this then I believe it's a game over, no deal.

Well exactly, and I think we need to start hearing more from EU leaders about how to prepare for Brexit. Even if its just symbolic rsther than meaningful e.g. Irish politicians encouraging people to swap British goods for French ones, or more substantial e.g. clear measures for exporters etc.

Both the UK govt and the EU have seemed to be speaking to the British public for the last few years. Now is the time for the EU to focus on its remaining member states

Professor Moriarty · 23-08-2020 10:42am

Sam Russell wrote: »

The point about JIT goods is not transit time but arrival time - and how reliable that arrival time is. They have to arrive 'just in time'. The real problem is transporting perishable goods as their shelf life is reduced, which is a real cost to businesses, as it reduces the time goods can be stocked and still be in date. Even this can be countered by better packing and transit conditions for the goods.

JIT goods are shipped all over the world by tramp steamers, RORO freight ferries, or by aircraft, and what matters is the cost of transport, and reliable shipping times. Slow transport only affects high value goods, and really very high value goods.

Poor reliability requires larger buffer stocks which is a cost of storage but also requires trans shipping into a store house and out again - which is triple handling, and should be avoided, as is the cost of that storehouse. All to be avoided when margins are tight - as they always are.

If you double or triple your transport time for fresh food or JIT goods then that poses a serious problem. Here's the problem. Aside from the impact of much longer transport times, we do not yet have the capacity to completely bypass the UK (nevermind the transportation of goods to the UK and the impact of No Brexit on this). For instance, a poster mentioned the new Ringaskiddy to Zeebrugge as an example of how we can address the landbridge problem. At maximum capacity and operating 24/7/365, this ferry will transport 16,000 trucks a year. Currently, according to the IIEA, there are 157,000 trucks using the UK landbridge to Europe.

Sam Russell · 23-08-2020 10:50am

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If you double or triple your transport time for fresh food or JIT goods then that poses a serious problem. Here's the problem. Aside from the impact of much longer transport times, we do not yet have the capacity to completely bypass the UK (nevermind the transportation of goods to the UK and the impact of No Brexit on this). For instance, a poster mentioned the new Ringaskiddy to Zeebrugge as an example of how we can address the landbridge problem. At maximum capacity and operating 24/7/365, this ferry will transport 16,000 trucks a year. Currently, according to the IIEA, there are 157,000 trucks using the UK landbridge to Europe.

If the business is there, more ferries will ply the routes that are required. Brexit will mean delays and extra cost for business that have truck with Britain. If there are cheaper or better ways, they will start to use those other ways.

That is what business does.

Professor Moriarty · 23-08-2020 11:06am

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the business is there, more ferries will ply the routes that are required. Brexit will mean delays and extra cost for business that have truck with Britain. If there are cheaper or better ways, they will start to use those other ways.

That is what business does.

The timeline for replacing existing routes is far too short. In the long term, if necessary as it looks like it might be, these routes will be replaced but the cost to Irish business in the interim will be massive.

RobMc59 · 23-08-2020 11:56am

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the business is there, more ferries will ply the routes that are required. Brexit will mean delays and extra cost for business that have truck with Britain. If there are cheaper or better ways, they will start to use those other ways.

That is what business does.

In the event of an acrimonious fallout between the EU and the UK,in which you have suggested 'blockades'to stop food reaching the UK, how do you propose transversing British waters or airspace if required?

Enzokk · 23-08-2020 12:35pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

In the event of an acrimonious fallout between the EU and the UK,in which you have suggested 'blockades'to stop food reaching the UK, how do you propose transversing British waters or airspace if required?

Depends what type of fallout. The UK will have to fly very far south and west to go east if they start blocking EU ships and aircraft in their airspace and it becomes tit for tat. Two can play that game and it doesn't help the UK that it is surrounded by other EU countries or EEA countries. Those are breaks of the situation.

Capt'n Midnight · 23-08-2020 1:04pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The timeline for replacing existing routes is far too short. In the long term, if necessary as it looks like it might be, these routes will be replaced but the cost to Irish business in the interim will be massive.

The trick is to free up as much capacity for the JIT deliveries by routing the non-time critical stuff elsewhere.

Honda in the UK need 350 trucks from the EU a day to it's Swindon car plant.
Low margin (4% typical of the industry) heavy stuff. Our JIT stuff would I imagine be lighter / more valuable and possibly more air transportable if push came to shove.

Also ferries can move

December should see some spare ones from the holiday islands in the Med. It's a possible contingency plan.

Capacity from Ireland is ramping up.

The addition of Panorama on the Northern Ireland to England corridor will increase freight capacity by 28% and frequency will rise from 46 to 56 crossings weekly compared to the present.

Ro-ro freight operator Seatruck Ferries announced today an increase in capacity with an extra two roundtrips on the Irish Sea central corridor Dublin Port-Liverpool route this week.

Brittany Ferries Plans to Use Another 'French Connection' Port is Followed by Second Cork Cruiseferry Move. And services to Bilbao

This should give an idea of how many Ferries are running
https://www.dublinport.ie/information-centre/next-100-arrivals/ - LOLO is unaccompanied trailers.

Sixtine has 5Km of vehicle lanes too

Container ships are much more efficient by volume, defo not JIT but savings on transport might offset a few days stockpiling costs. Again it's a contingency plan that businesses could consider.

Pity the UK seem to be making it up as they go along.

And forgetting that they need us. The trade surplus of £13.8 billion may shrink if we have to start changing suppliers. ie. 350 million dollars a week

reslfj · 23-08-2020 1:26pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If you double or triple your transport time for fresh food or JIT goods then that poses a serious problem.

It is the total transport time from e.g. Spain/Valencia with fresh food to Ireland and Irish supermarkets that counts.

Direct RoRo routes to/from Spain will allow timing not much longer than driving to Calais and using the land-bridge.

Fresh food from the Netherlands may see transport times extended relative more, but I'm sure tomatoes and cucumbers will arrive in an OK status at Irish supermarkets too.

It's likely more important that the ship's schedule is coordinated with the distribution warehouses packing and loading schedules.

I wasn't aware that Ireland had much transnational JIT production ? Help me out here, thanks.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

...
At maximum capacity and operating 24/7/365, this ferry will transport 16,000 trucks a year. Currently, according to the IIEA, there are 157,000 trucks using the UK landbridge to Europe.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-busting-ferry-launched-from-dublin-port-1.3468760

It -the Celine - can accommodate more than 600 lorries and is almost twice the size of any ferry currently operating out of Dublin Port. If all the parking lanes on the 235m long boat were laid end to end, it would stretch to almost 8 kilometres, making it the world’s largest short sea roll-on roll-off vessel.

2x600 lorries every 4 days Dublin Zeebrugge-Dublin is > 100.000 lorries/year

Celine has two newer sister-ships* each with a capacity of about 400 lorries.
This adds 2 x 2 x 400 every 4 days if sailing Dublin-Zeebrugge-Dublin or a total additional capacity of > 140.000 lorries/year

More capacity if sailing to Cherbourg and about the same to e.g. Santander.

There are other shipping companies with ferries, RoRo and containers lines. Maersk has several weekly trips Ireland - EU26. Container ships in all sizes are very much available on the market.

The land-bridge is 'nice to have', but no longer 'need to have' for Ireland.

Lars

Edit: Turns out the Celine has identical sistership and many more 'a bit smaller RoRo sisterships

reslfj · 23-08-2020 1:42pm

Enzokk wrote: »

Depends what type of fallout. The UK will have to fly very far south and west to go east if they start blocking EU ships and aircraft in their airspace and it becomes tit for tat. Two can play that game and it doesn't help the UK that it is surrounded by other EU countries or EEA countries. Those are breaks of the situation.

The Chicago Convention which the UK ratified March 1947, allows for fly-over (for a fee) and landing for fuel or repair. The UK really needs EU fly-overs hugely more than the EU needs to fly over the UK.

While the EEZs extend to midwater or 200 nm, the international water begins only 12 nm from the coast (from the basis-line).

Lars

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedoms_of_the_air
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Convention_on_International_Civil_Aviation

Nody · 23-08-2020 4:59pm

Project fear!!1 directly from the government themselves stating what was said here years ago which the Brexiteers called doomsday saying...

In Whitehall’s “reasonable worst case scenario” animal disease might rip through the countryside due to shortages of medicines and the Channel Islands could need military airdrops to avoid running out of food.

It warns the Navy might be needed to stop vigilante British fisherman clashing with hundreds of illegal European fishing boat incursions.

And parts of Britain may be hit by shortages of power and petrol as 8,500 trucks get stuck at Dover.

One in 20 Town Halls could go bust in a second Covid wave, sparking social care chaos.

The economic impact of the virus and Brexit could cause public disorder, shortages and price hikes.

Supplies of food and fuel are all under threat this Christmas if Dover becomes blocked.

With trade talks looking set to go the wire, there is a risk they collapse — putting up trade barriers overnight on 1 January.

In that scenario planners believe France will force “mandatory controls on UK goods from day one” and between 40 and 70 per cent of hauliers travelling across the Channel may not be ready for this.

That could see flow between Dover and Calais down 45 per cent for three months, triggering long queues of HGVs in Kent.

It could lead to shortages of the 30 per cent of our food imported from the EU as well as medicines, chemicals for drinking water purification and fuel supply.

This could trigger water rationing and even power cuts.

Food supply across the country would be hit by panic buying at Christmas, the busiest time of year.

Note; this scenario is in essence no deal brexit + Covid having a second wave basically. It's not exactly an outrageous scenario as it stands...

Professor Moriarty · 23-08-2020 5:22pm

reslfj wrote: »

It is the total transport time from e.g. Spain/Valencia with fresh food to Ireland and Irish supermarkets that counts.

Direct RoRo routes to/from Spain will allow timing not much longer than driving to Calais and using the land-bridge.

Fresh food from the Netherlands may see transport times extended relative more, but I'm sure tomatoes and cucumbers will arrive in an OK status at Irish supermarkets too.

It's likely more important that the ship's schedule is coordinated with the distribution warehouses packing and loading schedules.

I wasn't aware that Ireland had much transnational JIT production ? Help me out here, thanks.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-busting-ferry-launched-from-dublin-port-1.3468760

2x600 lorries every 4 days Dublin Zeebrugge-Dublin is > 100.000 lorries/year

Celine has two newer sister-ships* each with a capacity of about 400 lorries.
This adds 2 x 2 x 400 every 4 days if sailing Dublin-Zeebrugge-Dublin or a total additional capacity of > 140.000 lorries/year

More capacity if sailing to Cherbourg and about the same to e.g. Santander.

There are other shipping companies with ferries, RoRo and containers lines. Maersk has several weekly trips Ireland - EU26. Container ships in all sizes are very much available on the market.

The land-bridge is 'nice to have', but no longer 'need to have' for Ireland.

Lars

Edit: Turns out the Celine has identical sistership and many more 'a bit smaller RoRo sisterships

The discussion is about Irish exports primarily. For the vast majority of exporters, Bilbao wouldn't make sense. The idea that a land bridge is just "nice to have" is very wrong in my opinion. Though not for all, for many exporters to the EU, a doubling or tripling of their delivery time is a serious problem for a variety of reasons. If needed next January, are there sufficient ferries ready to replace the land bridge for 150,000 trucks? I doubt that very much.

I started the conversation many posts back by positing that this Tory government is both stupid and fanatical enough to plunge the UK into a WTO chaos next January. If that chaos turns sour, which is probable, we will be used as a hostage. I hope I'm wrong and the UK comes to its senses. If it doesn't and they decide to mess us around, we will take an economic cold shower. That is certain.

Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

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