General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

An Ciarraioch · 17-01-2020 2:43pm

Every party must reach 30% for a general election - and according to Adrian Kavanagh, every major party is meeting it (scroll to very bottom of link), but FG is only just above board at 30.5%:

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/

sid waddell · 17-01-2020 2:45pm

blanch152 wrote: »

David Healy was a TD before.

Don't recall that

is_that_so · 17-01-2020 2:47pm

hiddenmongoose wrote: »

Can anyone enlighten me on the gender quota for political parties in Ireland, and how it has or is (if at all) currently affecting parties?

Apart from the FF candidate who went to court over it they don't seem to have any problems working with it.

An Ciarraioch · 17-01-2020 2:47pm

No, Blanch definitely must be mixing him up with someone else - only Healy TD I'm aware of is Seamus Healy (WUAG) in Tipp.

bren2001 · 17-01-2020 3:05pm

blanch152 wrote: »

David Healy was a TD before.

When? I've no memory of him ever being a TD nor can I find a record.

sid waddell wrote: »

I think some posters misunderstand the meaning of the word "certainty" as regards elections.

I've seen Alan Kelly in Tipp and Denise Mitchell in Dublin Bay North mentioned as "certainties" in the last couple of pages.

Both may well get in, the odds say they probably will, but certainties they are most certainly not.

I wouldn't even have Richard Bruton down as a certainty in Dublin Bay North given that his running mate is high profile and being pushed heavily by the party - though I do think it's very likely he'll get in.

In fairness, it's only me saying Mitchell is a cert. I think theres a lot of logic to it.

Larry O'Toole got 14% of the Artane-Whitehall vote in the last locals. I don't have access to that tally sheet but 50% of Mitchells 1st preferences came from this constituency in the last General Election (mainly Priorswood/Kilmore/Ayrfield).

Mícheál Mac Donncha got 12% of the Donaghmeade vote in the locals. Around 50% of his votes in the last General came in Grange/Kilbarrick/Donaghmeade. Mitchell will take a lot of these.

SF are only running one candidate this time round. I think it's inconceivable that she loses her seat. There's been nothing to indicate people in these areas are voting differently. All she needs to do is stay ahead of John Lyons and when he's eliminated, she'll soak up a lot of his transfers. I have her down as a certainty but I can see why you may disagree.

Richard Bruton is a certainty. 13.3% first preferences last time. FG got 19% of the first preference votes last time round. He can afford drop by several percent and still get in on transfers. Is Noone being pushed hard? Is she more high profile than Bruton? I don't think she'll eat much if any of his first preferences.

Him and Haughey will be re-elected. I think it would be a massive upset if either didn't.

toleratethis · 17-01-2020 3:47pm

Any chance for Niall O'Tuathail (soc dem) in Galway West? He got very close last time, pipped to the post by Catherine Connolly (Ind).

FrancieBrady · 17-01-2020 3:56pm

toleratethis wrote: »

Any chance for Niall O'Tuathail (soc dem) in Galway West? He got very close last time, pipped to the post by Catherine Connolly (Ind).

Might be just me but I thought Connolly maintained a very high profile for an Independent. She may have consolidated that slim margin.

scheister · 17-01-2020 4:09pm

What do people think about North Kildare

Catherine Murphy is safe
There is 1 FG seat assume Bernard Durkan will take that
There is 1 FF seat but not sure which one will take it.

The final seat is a toss up between 2nd FF/FG and Labour.

Vincent Martin for the Greens is hard to judge, the greens had a great LE19 but not sure if good enough to get a Dail seat.

SF candidate Reada Cronin lost her seat in locals and cant see her improving on the 6.55% she got in GE16 more likely a drop to 4.5/5%

Renua are running Seamus O'Riain who polled badly in the in locals and i expect similar here. They polled 2% here in 2016 this will drop to 1-1.4% this time

Riskymove · 17-01-2020 4:11pm

blanch152 wrote: »

David Healy was a TD before.

Nope

He was John Gormleys adviser when he was Minister (as well as being a Cllr)

sid waddell · 17-01-2020 4:21pm

toleratethis wrote: »

Any chance for Niall O'Tuathail (soc dem) in Galway West? He got very close last time, pipped to the post by Catherine Connolly (Ind).

I live in this constituency and I don't think so. O'Tuathail polled respectably last time but was never really in the hunt for a seat - it was SF's O'Clochartaigh (who has snce left the party) who just missed out to Hildegaarde Naughton of FG.

Sadly I think Noel Grealish is going to romp home this time with an increased vote.

Catherine Connolly will get in alright and probably more comfortably than before.

1 FF and 1 FG are certain.

I don't see SF figuring this time and I expect the last seat to be a battle between FF2, Naughton (FG) and possibly the Greens, they could have a shout here on transfers if they can get ahead of Labour and the Soc Dems, though it's hard to see them actually taking the seat.

Despite being a largely urban constituency, this seat has always been 4 right, 1 left. Last time "left" candidates got a combined 20k first references out of 64k total vote, and that will probably increase slightly again, as it usually does, but I think might be an election too early for that 4-1 right/left split to change.

sid waddell · 17-01-2020 4:31pm

scheister wrote: »

What do people think about North Kildare

Catherine Murphy is safe
There is 1 FG seat assume Bernard Durkan will take that
There is 1 FF seat but not sure which one will take it.

The final seat is a toss up between 2nd FF/FG and Labour.

Vincent Martin for the Greens is hard to judge, the greens had a great LE19 but not sure if good enough to get a Dail seat.

SF candidate Reada Cronin lost her seat in locals and cant see her improving on the 6.55% she got in GE16 more likely a drop to 4.5/5%

Renua are running Seamus O'Riain who polled badly in the in locals and i expect similar here. They polled 2% here in 2016 this will drop to 1-1.4% this time

My feeling is that this constituency has a real chance of being a "sleeper" for the Greens.

In 2011 it returned both Catherine Murphy and Emmett Stagg (Labour) in a four seater so it has form in terms of returning a 2/2 left/right split.

Kildare North is essentially a suburban constituency and it returned a whopping 73.26% Yes vote in the 8th Amendment referendum.

It fits the demographic for the Greens very well.

BarraOG · 17-01-2020 4:36pm

I just check the register online and its says "Presidential only". I moved back to Ireland a few years ago having been abroad a long time. I was called for jury duty while away and had to inform them that I had left the country. Can I vote in the upcoming election and do I need to do anything to do so for this election? I voted in the last referendum and last presidential election. I'm an Irish Citizen.

Amirani · 17-01-2020 4:38pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Every party must reach 30% for a general election - and according to Adrian Kavanagh, every major party is meeting it (scroll to very bottom of link), but FG is only just above board at 30.5%:

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/

I think Fianna Fail are on 31%. Social Democrats on 34%.

Other parties a bit higher.

An Ciarraioch · 17-01-2020 4:49pm

BarraOG wrote: »

I just check the register online and its says "Presidential only". I moved back to Ireland a few years ago having been abroad a long time. I was called for jury duty while away and had to inform them that I had left the country. Can I vote in the upcoming election and do I need to do anything to do so for this election? I voted in the last referendum and last presidential election. I'm an Irish Citizen.

On Check the Register, "Presidential" means you can vote in every election and referendum, as only fully registered Irish citizens are entitled to vote for President.

17-01-2020 4:52pm

Over past few days I’ve been listening to Duffy, Darcy etc, and have most certainly heard a couple of things that would give the impression of distinct bias against FG. Now I am no supporter of FG myself and put them down at the bottom of my vote. If one takes a look at the Liveline and Darcy threads there’s commentary at the points where bias has been blatant. A rerun through the radio shows in the Player will leave one in little doubt, although today Joe Duffy was covering his tracks as there most probably were complaints sent into RTÉ. I don’t intend this thread to be a rant against or for any political parties, rather a reflection of opinions on how the broadcaster is managing electoral neutrality.

<mod - as we have had several threads all expressing dissatisfaction about the options available (not without justification, mind you), I've merged them all into one>

An Ciarraioch · 17-01-2020 5:00pm

I would have thought limiting the main TV debate to just two parties was a greater display of bias personally, but each to their own opinion.

super_furry · 17-01-2020 5:01pm

I think there's always going to be an implicit criticism of the government of the day because they're the people who are making or not making the decisions.

You can't exactly criticise Sinn Fein for hospital waiting lists of the homeless crisis.

VinLieger · 17-01-2020 5:02pm

Many would also argue they are also at the same time showing favour towards FG and a lesser extent FF, I find it easier to simply not pay attention to anything RTE say or do at all tbh.

sid waddell · 17-01-2020 5:03pm

super_furry wrote: »

I think there's always going to be an implicit criticism of the government of the day because they're the people who are making or not making the decisions.

That's not how it worked in Britain.

Outkast_IRE · 17-01-2020 5:05pm

Wonder if RTE has been promised a resolution to the funding issues by the other party ? Do FF support a "digital tax"

James Brown · 17-01-2020 5:31pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Over past few days I’ve been listening to Duffy, Darcy etc, and have most certainly heard a couple of things that would give the impression of distinct bias against FG. Now I am no supporter of FG myself and put them down at the bottom of my vote. If one takes a look at the Liveline and Darcy threads there’s commentary at the points where bias has been blatant. A rerun through the radio shows in the Player will leave one in little doubt, although today Joe Duffy was covering his tracks as there most probably were complaints sent into RTÉ. I don’t intend this thread to be a rant against or for any political parties, rather a reflection of opinions on how the broadcaster is managing electoral neutrality.

Was thinking the opposite. They hardly touched Leo's politicising the homeless man hospitalised, but made hay out of the SF councillor being a tit.
The coverage is mostly FG/FF...and Greens/SF

James Brown · 17-01-2020 5:34pm

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I wonder what compromises would need to be made to get the Healy-Raes and the Greens in the same coalition. Maybe cycle lanes alongside every boreen in Kerry?

Can you drink cycle?

is_that_so · 17-01-2020 5:34pm

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Can you drink cycle?

You can! €80 fine I believe.

EDIT: That fine was updated to a max of €5000 in the RT Act 2010 Section 6

brimstone20 · 17-01-2020 5:51pm

They can't be too hard on parties that have no history in power and have makey up policies that they say they will pay for through magic beans because all they can say is, where are you getting the money from to pay for all that?

Then saying FF ruined the country has been said so many times, people are immune to it.

blanch152 · 17-01-2020 6:28pm

sid waddell wrote: »

Don't recall that

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No, Blanch definitely must be mixing him up with someone else - only Healy TD I'm aware of is Seamus Healy (WUAG) in Tipp.

Yes, apologies, faulty memory, rush of blood to the head, he did come close in Dublin North-East one time.

It's the council seat that he has been in and out of over the last 20 years.

17-01-2020 6:52pm

Presenters in the broadcaster have would have different political affiliations and some wouldn’t gave any, of course. But sometimes those who do make it very obvious that they do. The political/news/current affairs division of RTÉ does an excellent job at balance; where I’ve heard the most obvious bias is on Liveline and Darcy. Ray once said he’d emigrate if Enda Kenny came into power, and yesterday Joe Duffy was being quite blatantly anti FG; today he was going out on a limb to criticise both of the biggest parties equally, my hunch is that it was in response to complaints, probably from FG people or those interested in balance.

PTH2009 · 17-01-2020 6:57pm

robman60 wrote: »

In a word, no. Basically the only way you can vote abroad is if you're on state business. Checked this out before for my parents, there's no holiday exception.

Ah balls luck what can ya do

is_that_so · 17-01-2020 7:22pm

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Was thinking the opposite. They hardly touched Leo's politicising the homeless man hospitalised, but made hay out of the SF councillor being a tit.
The coverage is mostly FG/FF...and Greens/SF

Think other parties dealt with the Varadkar gaffe. As for the SF idiot, he hit race, gender orientation and alleged behaviour of women he insulted in a single podcast in pretty spectacular fashion.

Dank Janniels · 17-01-2020 7:23pm

KevRossi wrote: »

7 declared candidates in Roscommon so far: 3 male - 4 female.

Its Roscommon-Galway! Theres a good stretch of us lumped in with them!!

James Brown · 17-01-2020 9:09pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Think other parties dealt with the Varadkar gaffe. As for the SF idiot, he hit race, gender orientation and alleged behaviour of women he insulted in a single podcast in pretty spectacular fashion.

Was speaking on RTE's coverage, (thread topic).
They mentioned it briefly far down a sum up of the day. The SF fool got his own story and a follow up the next day.

An Ciarraioch · 17-01-2020 9:32pm

According to a chronicler of the Irish right, the various groupings are co-ordinating their campaigns as follows:

https://twitter.com/soundmigration/status/1218234401408024577

touts · 17-01-2020 9:43pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Over past few days I’ve been listening to Duffy, Darcy etc, and have most certainly heard a couple of things that would give the impression of distinct bias against FG. Now I am no supporter of FG myself and put them down at the bottom of my vote. If one takes a look at the Liveline and Darcy threads there’s commentary at the points where bias has been blatant. A rerun through the radio shows in the Player will leave one in little doubt, although today Joe Duffy was covering his tracks as there most probably were complaints sent into RTÉ. I don’t intend this thread to be a rant against or for any political parties, rather a reflection of opinions on how the broadcaster is managing electoral neutrality.

Would you prefer them to waste time putting lipstick on a pig?

Abel Ruiz · 17-01-2020 9:48pm

I think Joe duffy got a slap on the wrist and was told to stay neutral.
The difference of today's show compared to Wednesday and Thursday is night and day.
He doesn't want any complaints, so to speak.

KWAG2019 · 17-01-2020 10:53pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

According to a chronicler of the Irish right, the various groupings are co-ordinating their campaigns as follows:

https://twitter.com/soundmigration/status/1218234401408024577

A strategy known as save-the-deposit-for-Christ’s-sake

robman60 · 18-01-2020 3:01am

This is going to be a real problem for the parties when it increases to 40% for all elections after 2022.

I was at one of the appeals of the FF candidate bringing the constitutional challenge and I think there's a fair chance he'll succeed in the supreme Court but still more likely he won't.

Atlantic Dawn · 18-01-2020 3:02am

If they have gender neutral candidates what happens then?

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 9:31am

robman60 wrote: »

This is going to be a real problem for the parties when it increases to 40% for all elections after 2022.

I was at one of the appeals of the FF candidate bringing the constitutional challenge and I think there's a fair chance he'll succeed in the supreme Court but still more likely he won't.

It may not be as hard as you imagine, especially if it has done its job in representation. It's barely 1 in 10 extra for parties to come up with.

Dyr · 18-01-2020 9:35am

is_that_so wrote: »

It may not be as hard as you imagine, especially if it has done its job in representation. It's barely 1 in 10 extra for parties to come up with.

Well it did its job in dropping the quality of representation, which I didnt think was possible but there you go.

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 9:52am

Bambi wrote: »

Well it did its job in dropping the quality of representation, which I didnt think was possible but there you go.

That's been going on since the 80s. There are far more attractive and lucrative options for smart, able people than politics. Then there's the routine dog's abuse they get so no surprise at all.

sid waddell · 18-01-2020 10:07am

Bambi wrote: »

Well it did its job in dropping the quality of representation, which I didnt think was possible but there you go.

Forums like this and others hardly help in terms of quality of representation, why go forward if people are just going to abuse you whatever you do.

beggars_bush · 18-01-2020 10:30am

A lot more female 'running mates' in this election

A lot of them there to achieve the quota if you ask me

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 10:38am

beggars_bush wrote: »

A lot more female 'running mates' in this election

A lot of them there to achieve the quota if you ask me

That's what running mates do - boost overall party share geographically, but over time they can become the Number 1 with their own running mate.

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 10:45am

Larbre34 wrote: »

Expect Brendan to get back no problem, but mark me folks, Verona Murphy is going to get elected.

How? Her last vote was courtesy of FG backing. On numbers anyway she needs to get past the most recent FF TD, who I imagine will be re-elected and 2/3 FG candidates, including two incumbents.

ButtersSuki · 18-01-2020 10:54am

Big drop in FG % with the gap largely filled by FF gain coming in poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Times.

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 11:45am

Just as a comparison, here's their last one from December. Notable here is the somewhat dubious support level for SF, given that the average support level for SF across all polls is 15%.
FG 27 FF 27 SF 20 Lab 6 GR 6 PBP 2 IA 2 SD 1 Ind/Others 9

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 11:48am

Apparently a B&A poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow. Dropping this in from other thread.

Just as a comparison, here's their last one from December. Notable here is the somewhat dubious support level for SF, given that the average support level for SF across all polls is 15%.
FG 27 FF 27 SF 20 Lab 6 GR 6 PBP 2 IA 2 SD 1 Ind/Others 9

robman60 · 18-01-2020 11:51am

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Big drop in FG % with the gap largely filled by FF gain coming in poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Times.

Any exact figures?

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 11:52am

robman60 wrote: »

Any exact figures?

Will probably emerge about teatime tonight.

ButtersSuki · 18-01-2020 12:01pm

robman60 wrote: »

Any exact figures?

FG to 20 (exact).
FF to 30+ (don’t have exact).

FWIW, poll was conducted before election was called.

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 12:10pm

Some of the slogans so far. I like the snappy, simple Green one!

Fine Gael A future to look forward to
Fianna Fáil An Ireland for all (Éire do chách)
Labour Party Building an equal society
Green Party Want Green, Vote Green

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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