Active Cold Front - 17th October 2011

Deep Easterly · 16-10-2011 7:15pm #1

This may well turn into a complete flop but there seems to be a possibility that tomorrow's cold front passage will be accompanied by some very squally winds as well as some heavy rain in places

HIRLAM 850 temps and windspeed for tomorrow:

Very sharp temperature gradient aligned with the cold front so a chance that there may be some convective elements contained within the actual front which could lead to very strong winds locally as it moves over the country tomorrow afternoon. Small chance of thunder also.

One to watch.

M.T. Cranium · 16-10-2011 7:26pm

Looks powerful with 120 kt wind at 500 mbs and rapid thickness falls at the height of the daytime heating cycle, would not be surprised if there are some reports of thunder, hail and damaging wind gusts including but not confined to the Dublin region.

For those in the north, this will not just blow through with clearing to follow. The surface winds may actually ramp up overnight into Tuesday, so there may be two wind max periods, one around 1100h then another around 0300h Tuesday. Further south and east, the mid-day frontal passage will probably be the stronger of the two peaks. Timing this for 1200-1300h Galway and 1300-1400h Dublin (will be moving east at 70-80 knots).

Iancar29 · 16-10-2011 7:49pm

Cameras at the ready so!

... Might try have a time-lapse for the day!

tylercollins · 16-10-2011 7:52pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Cameras at the ready so! ... Might try have a time-lapse for the day!

Damn you having your camera LOL I'm not getting my D90 till end of November

fr wishy washy · 16-10-2011 7:55pm

Will we see snow in Blessington Co. Wicklow we are 600 + above sea level?

Su Campu · 16-10-2011 8:01pm

fr wishy washy wrote: »

Will we see snow in Blessington Co. Wicklow we are 600 + above sea level?

You mean 600 FEET. Snow only above around 400 METRES (1,300 feet) in the north.

fr wishy washy · 16-10-2011 8:02pm

Ah well I live in hope.

Iancar29 · 16-10-2011 8:09pm

tylercollins wrote: »

Damn you having your camera LOL I'm not getting my D90 till end of November

Well... ill be using my Brother's D200 for the time-lapse.

Wish i had gotten my GO Pro HD camera earlier!

delw · 16-10-2011 9:01pm

Finally some weather to talk about & watch out for that isn't in FI or MT's winter forecast

gbee · 16-10-2011 10:14pm

Met Eireann's sea area forecast has gale force to strong gale force to storm force winds .... !

Su Campu · 17-10-2011 9:38am

SIGMET for thunderstorms in the northwest this morning.

EISN SIGMET 02 VALID 170800/171000 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR/UIR EMBD TS OBS WITHIN 40NM OF LINE N53 W015 TO N5415 W006 TOP FL280 MOV SE AT 10KT INTSF=

Valid 0800 - 1000 UTC. Shannon FIR/UIR.
Embedded thunderstorms observed within 40 nautical miles of a line from N53 W15 to N54.15 W06, tops 28,000 feet, moving southeastwards at 10 knots and intensifying.

Mr Benevolent · 17-10-2011 10:25am

Su Campu wrote: »

SIGMET for thunderstorms in the northwest this morning.

Valid 0800 - 1000 UTC. Shannon FIR/UIR.
Embedded thunderstorms observed within 40 nautical miles of a line from N53 W15 to N54.15 W06, tops 28,000 feet, moving southwestards at 10 knots and intensifying.

You mean moving southeast, right?

Danno · 17-10-2011 10:25am

FINNER CAMP(A) SW 05 LIGHT SLEET 8 90 1.3 1005

Su Campu · 17-10-2011 10:28am

Confab wrote: »

You mean moving southeast, right?

Of course, thanks!

Su Campu · 17-10-2011 10:29am

Danno wrote: »

FINNER CAMP(A) SW 05 LIGHT SLEET 8 90 1.3 1005

That's incorrect. It's been reading sleet and snow all morning, but it's due to the low visibility. Temp and dewpoint +8/+7 °C

megatron989 · 17-10-2011 11:22am

Any chance of thunder around Dublin and wicklow? We never get enough lightning imo!

M.T. Cranium · 17-10-2011 11:39am

Very much of a "calm before storm" situation at 1130 (1030z) with frontal boundary becoming well defined through daytime heating of milder air across south and east. Expect this to develop rapidly next 2-3 hours with possible squall line racing southeast. Timing for Dublin likely to be 1430-1530h. Winds across far north may take some time to increase but effects should be more dramatic across central counties as the unstable profile breaks down and allows much faster mixing down to surface. Winds in the far north will probably just increase more gradually but will then peak after midnight with the stronger surface gradient developing then.

Will be interesting to watch this develop on radar from about Mullingar to Thurles and down towards Cork.

delw · 17-10-2011 11:49am

how long will it take for this front to pass through?

Iancar29 · 17-10-2011 11:54am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Very much of a "calm before storm" situation at 1130 (1030z) with frontal boundary becoming well defined through daytime heating of milder air across south and east. Expect this to develop rapidly next 2-3 hours with possible squall line racing southeast. Timing for Dublin likely to be 1430-1530h. Winds across far north may take some time to increase but effects should be more dramatic across central counties as the unstable profile breaks down and allows much faster mixing down to surface. Winds in the far north will probably just increase more gradually but will then peak after midnight with the stronger surface gradient developing then.

Will be interesting to watch this develop on radar from about Mullingar to Thurles and down towards Cork.

Just the mere look of this very detail forecast is exciting to read!! ha

If that was me id be like.. " Should get bad for dublin at about 2-3pm... risk of some heavy showers" ... but ye MT always puts it out in a more interesting way! Ha...

* THUMBS UP * ...

* EDIT*... HELLO WIND!!!!

megatron989 · 17-10-2011 12:01pm

True that, I always imagine if his posts could talk they would have that voice
from the movie trailers that sounds so epic!

Wertz · 17-10-2011 12:17pm

Been watching that wall of red echoes sitting to my west since this morning....seems to be making very slow progress...interesting line of heavier embedded showers sparked from Enniskillen to Belfast in the last hour, looks like some might have thundery potential but they've broken down or moved out over N Irish sea.

Just blustery winds here in Dundalk for now...11.4C, but feeling colder.

Deep Easterly · 17-10-2011 12:20pm

Mean windspeed of 22mph at moment here in NE Galway with a combination of almost calm to sudden loud gusts which seem to have a darker quality than the ones that occurred with remnants of Katia last month.

Light rain with pressure falling at an alarming rate - currently 1001.2 mb. WSW backing a little to SW. 11.2c/97% RH.

Edit: nothing exceptional on the latest 12pm reports although Mace Head on the west coast reporting sustained gale force 9 winds of 42 knots, gusting 54.

Belmullet on 5c and Finner on just 6.0c!!!! with 4.2mm of rain in the last hour.

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-10-2011 12:22pm

I look forward to the racing bit ! :pac:

Elmer Blooker · 17-10-2011 12:29pm

I just had an extremely violent gust out of nothing a few mins ago but now gone relatively calm and quiet again

Darwin · 17-10-2011 12:30pm

Starting to get very dark and blustery here, but no rain yet....

dirtyghettokid · 17-10-2011 12:34pm

the gusts are after going really crazy there! i think my bird feeder is not going to last lol
it's been quite windy all morning here in no.co.dub .. where's this calm before the storm?

Iancar29 · 17-10-2011 12:42pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I just had an extremely violent gust out of nothing a few mins ago but now gone relatively calm and quiet again

dirtyghettokid wrote: »

the gusts are after going really crazy there! i think my bird feeder is not going to last lol
it's been quite windy all morning here in no.co.dub .. where's this calm before the storm?

Agree ! , that really loud gust about 10 mins ago made a bang on the windows! .... ANother one just there too! , wish i could drive , id say some great scenes out at howth and that right now..

TheInquisitor · 17-10-2011 12:52pm

http://met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

17-10-2011 1:00pm

Just had a gust here of 68km/h.

davidsr20 · 17-10-2011 1:00pm

It's been very windy the last 2 hours in ballinasloe co Galway.

Chicken Run · 17-10-2011 1:17pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

It's been very windy the last 2 hours in ballinasloe co Galway.

picked up during the last hour in East Clare too - very squally with some violent gusts

Su Campu · 17-10-2011 1:22pm

The Mace Head synop for 12 UTC shows an abrupt change in wind speed and direction occurred at 11:36 UTC, from SW (220°) 43 knots to NW (330°) 27 knots

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/decomet?ind=03963&ano=2011&mes=10&day=17&hora=12&single=yes&lang=en

dsmythy · 17-10-2011 1:25pm

Nearly a perfect line of red on the met.ie radar from Galway to Armagh. Dublin Airport still managing a 14c for now.

dsmythy · 17-10-2011 1:29pm

Some serious stuff there now.

konman · 17-10-2011 1:33pm

Su Campu wrote: »

The Mace Head synop for 12 UTC shows an abrupt change in wind speed and direction occurred at 11:36 UTC, from SW (220°) 43 knots to NW (330°) 27 knots

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/decomet?ind=03963&ano=2011&mes=10&day=17&hora=12&single=yes&lang=en

i just witnessed the change in wind direction it was amazing. Came with serious rain for about 10 minutes.

NIALL D · 17-10-2011 1:41pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Some serious stuff there now.

was watchin this radar and raintoday , looks to be movin really slowly ??

in south tipp and no rain yet !! thought it would hit a while ago ??

Larbre34 · 17-10-2011 1:47pm

Hello All

Long time viewer and first time poster, been a big fan of everyone's work for a long time especially over the last two winters, the dedication of the amateurs here is amazing

Just happened to be off today so wanted to join the ride on this interesting weather day.

My location is Dublin 15 near the Dublin/Meath/Kildare border, current weather is Wind strong from the SW, strong gale gusts, probably 40 kts+ as the Airport is showing almost 50. Current temperature 15 degrees in broken sunlight - the differential across the country is remarkable

Looking forward to the conditions descending on us over the next few hours, although I can see the departure path from Dublin Airport and I would not fancy it today!

ednwireland · 17-10-2011 1:49pm

a lovely morning

17/10/2011 14:00 3.7 °C 97 % 1003.1 hPa 6.2 m
17/10/2011 13:00 5.5 °C 98 % 1002.9 hPa 3.4 mm
17/10/2011 12:00 6.5 °C 98 % 1004.6 hPa 2.7 mm
17/10/2011 11:00 6.7 °C 98 % 1006.4 hPa 2.7 mm
17/10/2011 10:00 6.8 °C 97 % 1007.4 hPa 1.4 mm
17/10/2011 09:00 7.5 °C 97 % 1008.0 hPa 1.4 mm
17/10/2011 08:00 7.5 °C 95 % 1008.5 hPa 3.4 mm

dsmythy · 17-10-2011 1:49pm

NIALL D wrote: »

was watchin this radar and raintoday , looks to be movin really slowly ??

in south tipp and no rain yet !! thought it would hit a while ago ??

Seem to be an hour or so later than originally expected alright.

gbee · 17-10-2011 1:51pm

Blustery, my Kestrel 2500 caught a gust of 49.9 kmh at the airport. My WS at home has a recent gust of 46.6 kmh.

Airport gust of 38kts [70 kph].

Saganist · 17-10-2011 1:54pm

First few spits of rain here in Dublin cc..

There's an awful howl outside..

Iancar29 · 17-10-2011 1:59pm

Yep ... im LOVING that howl of the wind here in Dublin.. havent heard it so loud in a LONG time.

Time-lapse set up for the next 4 hours .... its not the best viewing point through the attic skylight but it'll hav to do ! Hopefully it'll get less messy out there and more defined things pass by!

megatron989 · 17-10-2011 2:02pm

Really nice view on raintoday of a ridge of heavy rain on the leading edge moving s.east. Looks like some weather is finally about to arrive!

leahyl · 17-10-2011 2:03pm

Wow guys that rain on the radar looks seriously heavy - is it likely to be as heavy once it reaches Cork? Probably not I'd say

Elmer Blooker · 17-10-2011 2:03pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Some serious stuff there now.

Very serious stuff! I think there might even be some tornado activity along that front this afternoon. It reminds of those explosive North American cold fronts with a huge temperature difference either side of the front.
At the moment Dublin 14c and Knock 4c. :eek:

rhonin · 17-10-2011 2:04pm

Heavy rain all day here and no sign of it stopping. No real wind but a big temperature drop. Currently 4.8C.

leahyl · 17-10-2011 2:06pm

It's actually lashing here now! I hadn't looked out the window:D

force eleven · 17-10-2011 2:07pm

Seeing pale blues on Met Eireann rainfall radar. Have'nt seen that since they upgraded. Very intense rain in some places as that squall approaches.

dsmythy · 17-10-2011 2:08pm

Havn't seen a rainbow in years it feels like. Awesome looking one looking north from Swords. Wind very strong and that's before the red line even arrives

dsmythy · 17-10-2011 2:10pm

force eleven wrote: »

Seeing pale blues on Met Eireann rainfall radar. Have'nt seen that since they upgraded. Very intense rain in some places as that squall approaches.

Yeah very visible dots all along the line on the 2pm image.

leahyl · 17-10-2011 2:13pm

http://met.ie/forecasts/3hour.asp

Some serious rain in the 3hr forecast:eek:

Active Cold Front - 17th October 2011

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