Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Nijmegen · 15-01-2021 11:00am

I don't think governments really care about false positive rates. If they keep false positives from moving they can also keep positives out, and at fairly shocking levels of disease growth in recent times I think that's what matters most of all. Pre-swift tests being available their policy tool was straight up travel bans, this opens the door quite a bit more but I reckon if you sat down with the CMOs of most major countries and asked them how they felt about travel today they'd give you a strained look. France is extending the rules around needing antigen tests at boarding also.

I see some Brazilian strain is causing issue and bans now. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/15/coronavirus-live-news-hospitals-in-brazilian-state-at-breaking-point-amid-oxygen-shortage-global-deaths-near-2m?page=with:block-600145818f08729f18288694#block-600145818f08729f18288694

trellheim · 15-01-2021 11:02am

They would be denied boarding. Self isolation doesn't include sitting on a airplane with others

Comes back to my travel insurance point as well as without it ( and its not really out ) you have to pay all these costs out of your own pocket for the necessary 14-day isolation, feeding and PCR testing on day 12 , plus the new airline ticket ( covid is not EU261 airline's fault you had a positive test )

ProfessorPlum · 15-01-2021 2:43pm

trellheim wrote: »

Comes back to my travel insurance point as well as without it ( and its not really out ) you have to pay all these costs out of your own pocket for the necessary 14-day isolation, feeding and PCR testing on day 12 , plus the new airline ticket ( covid is not EU261 airline's fault you had a positive test )

Your PCR test will almost definitely still be positive on day 12.

Cookiemunster · 15-01-2021 3:14pm

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Your PCR test will almost definitely still be positive on day 12.

Maybe I'm taking you up wrong, but if you have a positive test, you only have to isolate for 10 days. That points to you being very unlikely to still be positive on day 12.

Masala · 15-01-2021 3:15pm

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Your PCR test will almost definitely still be positive on day 12.

As matter of interest.,.... if you had a doze of the Covid and are now back up and running .... how long will it be before a test will come back Negative???

Captain_Crash · 15-01-2021 3:17pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Maybe I'm taking you up wrong, but if you have a positive test, you only have to isolate for 10 days. That points to you being very unlikely to still be positive on day 12.

You’ll likely not be positive 12 days after, but the PCR test will almost certainly say you are as it will pick up viral fragments still in your system!

ProfessorPlum · 15-01-2021 3:49pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Maybe I'm taking you up wrong, but if you have a positive test, you only have to isolate for 10 days. That points to you being very unlikely to still be positive on day 12.

Masala wrote: »

As matter of interest.,.... if you had a doze of the Covid and are now back up and running .... how long will it be before a test will come back Negative???

Captain_Crash wrote: »

You’ll likely not be positive 12 days after, but the PCR test will almost certainly say you are as it will pick up viral fragments still in your system!

Yes, after a positive test you are to isolate for 10 days, and for 5 days since you had any fever. At that stage you are deemed likely to no longer being infectious.
So that works.

The problem is when people want to see a negative PCR test. RT-PCR just looks for RNA fragmaents. It doesn't distinguish if they are 'alive' and can be contagious, or if they are 'dead' and not contagious.
PCR find these fragments for weeks or months after a person has recovered and completed their isolation period.
For that reason, the HSE recommend NOT retesting people who have had positive tests, especially within 12 weeks.
So while you may not be contagious after 12 days, you will almost certainly be 'positive'.

bk · 15-01-2021 6:50pm

I haven't looked too much into the details of this, but a solution might be:

- Either a negative PCR test or
- A positive PCR test that is more then 14 days old, but less then 3 months *

* Just plucking dates out here, whatever time period public health people deem acceptable.

Candamir · 15-01-2021 7:04pm

bk wrote: »

I haven't looked too much into the details of this, but a solution might be:

- Either a negative PCR test or
- A positive PCR test that is more then 14 days old, but less then 3 months *

* Just plucking dates out here, whatever time period public health people deem acceptable.

That’s pretty much what the US are doing, except they accept either antigen or PCR.

LuasSimon · 15-01-2021 8:58pm

Talking to a friend who lives in Spain , they seem to be conditioned for no tourists from overseas until August at least possibly not until next year ??

Tenger · 15-01-2021 11:34pm

LuasSimon wrote: »

Talking to a friend who lives in Spain , they seem to be conditioned for no tourists from overseas until August at least possibly not until next year ??

That’s my thinking too. With the uncertainly over possible vaccination rates, travel cards, PCR vs Antigen test requirements, I can’t see normal leisure travel bookings picking up until mid-summer.
So that basically wipes out half of the season.

Noxegon · 15-01-2021 11:44pm

We’ll be lucky if it’s only half.

trellheim · 16-01-2021 2:44am

As I said up-thread the ECDC green light is the watchword - unless the traffic lights drop back we aint goin anywhere.

Van.Bosch · 16-01-2021 2:00pm

trellheim wrote: »

As I said up-thread the ECDC green light is the watchword - unless the traffic lights drop back we aint goin anywhere.

I really think the idea of a country getting below 25 per 100,000 is impossible at this stage given where we are.

Cookiemunster · 16-01-2021 2:52pm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I really think the idea of a country getting below 25 per 100,000 is impossible at this stage given where we are.

Its January. Summer is a long time off. Many experts believe that Covid acts seasonally like other corona viruses do, so will naturally reduce as we enter the summer. That along with the vaccine roll out could easily see those numbers achieved by the summer.

Tenzor07 · 16-01-2021 3:44pm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I really think the idea of a country getting below 25 per 100,000 is impossible at this stage given where we are.

Did it last year when no one knew how to treat those who got really sick from the Virus, plus no vaccines available.

This year with better treatments, vaccines and greater social distance etc. the cases will drop below that easily.

Whether those in power remove travel restrictions is another question, and will Ryanair and Aer Lingus still keep capacity out of Ireland at a very low level until Q4.

Nijmegen · 16-01-2021 5:06pm

Lot of noise from government ruling out a summer of business as anywhere near usual.

https://twitter.com/micheallehane/status/1350191082416562180?s=21

donkey balls · 16-01-2021 7:03pm

Mgmt at ESY said that if they don't have a good summer in 2021 there is a possibility the employees could be out of work by October.

Noxegon · 17-01-2021 12:21am

donkey balls wrote: »

Mgmt at ESY said that if they don't have a good summer in 2021 there is a possibility the employees could be out of work by October.

ESY?

Cookiemunster · 17-01-2021 12:57am

Noxegon wrote: »

ESY?

Probably means EasyJet, EZY.

donkey balls · 17-01-2021 1:59am

Sorry I used the airline code thought that people would know, From posting here what airline i mentioned.

Cookiemunster · 17-01-2021 2:13am

donkey balls wrote: »

Sorry I used the airline code thought that people would know, From posting here what airline i mentioned.

You got the code wrong. Its EZY, not ESY.

donkey balls · 17-01-2021 2:50am

Typo error on my behalf predictive text.

donkey balls · 17-01-2021 3:41pm

EasyJet cabin crew to help with UK vaccination programme

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0113/1189482-easyjet-vaccinations/

MOD Note If you're going to drop a link, put something to indicate what it's about, we don't always have time to check and may as a result delete them

donkey balls · 17-01-2021 9:18pm

donkey balls wrote: »

EasyJet cabin crew to help with UK vaccination programme

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0113/1189482-easyjet-vaccinations/

MOD Note If you're going to drop a link, put something to indicate what it's about, we don't always have time to check and may as a result delete them

No bother will do in the future.

Noxegon · 17-01-2021 11:16pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

Lot of noise from government ruling out a summer of business as anywhere near usual.

Well there's a cheerful thought.

In all seriousness, it's all going to come down to how fast the powers that be can protect the bulk of the population. If any of these new more virulent strains prove vaccine-resistant then all bets are off.

Nijmegen · 17-01-2021 11:25pm

Noxegon wrote: »

Well there's a cheerful thought.

In all seriousness, it's all going to come down to how fast the powers that be can protect the bulk of the population. If any of these new more virulent strains prove vaccine-resistant then all bets are off.

Another thing that might be on their mind is whether or not other countries can vaccinate their populations quickly. Isn't there a thing with kids and certain vaccines, where the "herd immunity" gets diluted if enough don't get the vaccine. So we could be rolling along fine but if Brazil or the US for example is holding us back, letting a load of them back in might not be a good idea.

bk · 18-01-2021 1:25am

Nijmegen wrote: »

Another thing that might be on their mind is whether or not other countries can vaccinate their populations quickly. Isn't there a thing with kids and certain vaccines, where the "herd immunity" gets diluted if enough don't get the vaccine. So we could be rolling along fine but if Brazil or the US for example is holding us back, letting a load of them back in might not be a good idea.

Well the UK and US are well ahead of us in terms of vaccination at the moment and the rest of the EU will likely be similar enough to ourselves give or take a few weeks. So that should cover the majority of destinations.

Other parts of the world are more likely to lag far behind.

That is where vaccine passports are likely to come into play. Though that may even come into play from the US if there are enough anti-vaxers there.

basill · 18-01-2021 1:10pm

That is where vaccine passports are likely to come into play. Though that may even come into play from the US if there are enough anti-vaxers there.

No one has the balls to stand up to the US. Think ESTA, 24hr advance pax notice, the ball ache of applying for a crew visa so you can fly into their country and stay a night. Whatever the yanks demand they get. Go the other way and you will get a very short sharp wake up call.

Nijmegen · 19-01-2021 1:09am

Trump has gone and lifted the travel restrictions, though to be honest given many countries are imposing them one wonders if this isn’t just politics and the routes will be banned again Wednesday afternoon.

https://twitter.com/brianod_news/status/1351317338587598848?s=21

Jack1985 · 19-01-2021 2:00am

Biden Press Sec-Elect says Admin will be blocking it per CNN, a non-event.

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1351330357401018368?s=21

bk · 19-01-2021 11:01am

Jack1985 wrote: »

Biden Press Sec-Elect says Admin will be blocking it per CNN, a non-event.

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1351330357401018368?s=21

On the advice of our medical team, the Administration does not intend to lift these restrictions on 1/26. In fact, we plan to strengthen public health measures around international travel in order to further mitigate the spread of COVID-19.

.....

With the pandemic worsening, and more contagious variants emerging around the world, this is not the time to be lifting restrictions on international travel.

Pretty much as I would have expected from Bidens administration, there will be more efforts around Covid19, not less.

Of course as vaccinations increase, this will more then likely change, but don't be surprised if it includes vaccine passports, etc.

bk · 19-01-2021 3:19pm

Mr.S wrote: »

What I don't understand is they still allow travel from non-EU / Schengen countries - providing you haven't been EU/UK/Schengen for the previous 2 weeks.

Could you in theory fly from Turkey to the US without any issue? Seems odd they are just blocking Europe effectively.

It all started out as a dumb knee-jerk reaction by Trump back in March/April when cases were quickly growing mostly in Europe.

Of course, you are right that in the last ten months it should have been extended to other countries or other steps like quarantine and testing put in place. But that is Trump for you, it is all just optics for him and this last minute lifting of the ban, with no other restrictions, is equally dumb and just trying to cause a mess for Biden before he goes.

What I think we might see Biden do is:
- Keep the ban in place short-term
- Put in place stricter restrictions to other destinations like Turkey, like strict Quarantine, testing, etc.
- Use these same restrictions from Europe for US Citizens travelling from Europe.
- See how those restrictions are working, if they are working well, then lift the European travel ban, replacing them with those restrictions.

Inquitus · 19-01-2021 5:04pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

Trump has gone and lifted the travel restrictions, though to be honest given many countries are imposing them one wonders if this isn’t just politics and the routes will be banned again Wednesday afternoon.

https://twitter.com/brianod_news/status/1351317338587598848?s=21

What's he trying to do? Make things worse in the US, fool!

HTCOne · 19-01-2021 5:28pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

Trump has gone and lifted the travel restrictions, though to be honest given many countries are imposing them one wonders if this isn’t just politics and the routes will be banned again Wednesday afternoon.

https://twitter.com/brianod_news/status/1351317338587598848?s=21

Aliens? Nobody tell Jim Corr.

cson · 20-01-2021 2:49am

bk wrote: »

It all started out as a dumb knee-jerk reaction by Trump back in March/April when cases were quickly growing mostly in Europe.

That's one of the few things he did right imo, I don't think it was a dumb kneejerk reaction at all. Look at what happened in NYC barely 4 weeks later, now imagine if travel through 3 of the busiest transit points in the world had continued unfettered.

Biden will close the outliers like Croatia and Turkey and require a test on arrival + quarantine I suspect. There are already US States doing this - Hawaii & Alaska are the two that come to mind.

There will be an additional lag from the publics residual reluctance to travel until they're vaccinated. You're looking at Summer 2022 before you get back to 2019 traffic levels, which I believe Austrian Airlines called back at the onset of the pandemic.

I do think when demand does return, it'll return in a big way and you'll end up with supply side issues from a staffing perspective, the white tails might be there but it takes a lot of time and investment to get the qualified people to fly them, and you can't spin that up easily. Likely be something of a boon for domestic travel though. Either way I think we'll be returning to the days of 1k return trips to the US as being the baseline price.

Tenger · 20-01-2021 1:09pm

cson wrote: »

That's one of the few things he did right imo, I don't think it was a dumb kneejerk reaction at all. Look at what happened in NYC barely 4 weeks later, now imagine if travel through 3 of the busiest transit points in the world had continued unfettered.
..........

I have to disagree on this point. The US travel ban wasn't a bad idea in itself but it wasnt twinned with ANY practical health measures.
All those US citizens were able to fly home without any screening, quarantine or testing.
And when they did arrive home they were left in crowded immigration halls to await their questioning by a USCBP officer.
Thus is was like using a net as an umbrella.

The only way to keep aviation from being a source of spread is mandatory quarantine upon arrival with testing before departure and while in quarantine.

Stealthirl · 21-01-2021 6:52am

Masala wrote: »

As matter of interest.,.... if you had a doze of the Covid and are now back up and running .... how long will it be before a test will come back Negative???

A pilot from a podcast i listen too from Delta recently tested positive and was told he would likely show positive for 90days

Van.Bosch · 21-01-2021 9:30am

Stealthirl wrote: »

A pilot from a podcast i listen too from Delta recently tested positive and was told he would likely show positive for 90days

Yeah - I heard 12 weeks which means you could get Covid and recover and not be able to travel as test would still show as positive.

Captain_Crash · 21-01-2021 9:44am

Stealthirl wrote: »

A pilot from a podcast i listen too from Delta recently tested positive and was told he would likely show positive for 90days

APG??

Ronaldo kept testing positive for weeks after he’d had it at the end of the summer and Elon Musk done 4 in one day with two positive and two negative results.

snotboogie · 21-01-2021 10:23am

Captain_Crash wrote: »

APG??

Ronaldo kept testing positive for weeks after he’d had it at the end of the summer and Elon Musk done 4 in one day with two positive and two negative results.

Wouldn't trust a word that comes out of his mouth on Covid. He has a massive agenda.

LiamaDelta · 21-01-2021 3:57pm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Yeah - I heard 12 weeks which means you could get Covid and recover and not be able to travel as test would still show as positive.

Yes this is widely accepted, however I think if the correct protocols are followed they can distinguish and/or retest (but that is only done in a clinical setting). The PCR test process (as opposed to the test itself) that people have to get for travelling is full of potential holes, i.e. it is likely to miss 40% of infections and also return positives where people are no longer a risk.

PommieBast · 21-01-2021 4:21pm

LiamaDelta wrote: »

The PCR test process (as opposed to the test itself) that people have to get for travelling is full of potential holes, i.e. it is likely to miss 40% of infections and also return positives where people are no longer a risk.

I would like to know how they came up with that 40% figure because it suggests an under-sensitive test whereas false-positives suggest over-sensitive.

Because of new rules being dumped on travellers I have already rescheduled my flight back to Dublin twice. Way things are going I might have to use the Belfast backdoor out of necessity.

LiamaDelta · 21-01-2021 5:05pm

PommieBast wrote: »

I would like to know how they came up with that 40% figure because it suggests an under-sensitive test whereas false-positives suggest over-sensitive.

The issue is not with the test itself, it is with the process. i.e. even with requiring a not-detected result 3 days before travel, you will still miss many cases (likely up to 40%). The only way to be 100% sure is to quarantine and test multiple times before quarantine ends.

PommieBast · 21-01-2021 5:27pm

LiamaDelta wrote: »

The issue is not with the test itself, it is with the process. i.e. even with requiring a not-detected result 3 days before travel, you will still miss many cases (likely up to 40%). The only way to be 100% sure is to quarantine and test multiple times before quarantine ends.

It is the 40% figure I am questioning, as that sort of false-negative rate would make PCT bordering on an expensive charade.

Stealthirl · 21-01-2021 5:46pm

Captain_Crash wrote: »

APG??

Yes, Jeff said he tested positive in the most recent episode but only had mild signs so far.

LiamaDelta · 21-01-2021 6:12pm

PommieBast wrote: »

It is the 40% figure I am questioning, as that sort of false-negative rate would make PCT bordering on an expensive charade.

It's not a false negative, it's because the virus may not have been detectable at the time of the test.
If I get a test today (Thursday) ahead of a flight on Sunday, I may pick up the virus tomorrow and not show symptoms (if I do at all) until Wednesday or Thursday next week. So I will correctly have had a clear test, but then have the virus at a later point after arriving to my destination. I will have been missed by the process.

bk · 21-01-2021 8:47pm

LiamaDelta wrote: »

It's not a false negative, it's because the virus may not have been detectable at the time of the test.
If I get a test today (Thursday) ahead of a flight on Sunday, I may pick up the virus tomorrow and not show symptoms (if I do at all) until Wednesday or Thursday next week. So I will correctly have had a clear test, but then have the virus at a later point after arriving to my destination. I will have been missed by the process.

Also it can take a few days after you are infected, before you will start testing positive on the PCR test.

It basically takes time for the virus to replicate enough in your body for it to develop enough to pop up on the test.

Jack1985 · 21-01-2021 9:22pm

For those watching Biden's conference on the National Strategy for the COVID-19 Response and Pandemic Preparedness, the following excerpt should be of note;

Promote Safe Travel. Ensuring that people can safely travel will be critical
for families and to jumpstarting the economy, which is why the President issued
an executive order that requires mask-wearing on certain public modes of
transportation and at ports of entry to the United States. For international air travel,
Executive Order Promoting COVID-19 Safety in Domestic and International Travel
requires a recent negative COVID-19 test result prior to departure and quarantine
on arrival, consistent with CDC guidelines. The Executive Order also directs
agencies to develop options for expanding public health measures for domestic
travel and cross-border land and sea travel and calls for incentives to support
and encourage compliance with CDC guidelines on public transportation

It's evidently clear, vaccine efficacy will be compromised if the disease is allowed to continue to spread unchecked during vaccine roll-out with increasing levels of mutations. If we have one opportunity left to stop uncontrolled spread including with enforced quarantine, limit fatalities and increase levels of inoculation we will have a chance to stop COVID-19 in its tracks, for everyone’s sake (social, economic wellbeing).

Captain_Crash · 21-01-2021 9:43pm

Jack1985 wrote: »

vaccine efficacy will be compromised if the disease is allowed to continue to spread unchecked during vaccine roll-out with increasing levels of mutations.

I’d argue that the virus spreading unchecked actually lessens the likelihood of mutation! There is some opinion that the measures taken in the last year have played a part in expediting the mutation of the virus.

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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