Treve Treve Treve

Gringo180 · 08-10-2014 7:00pm

paddyisreal wrote: »

was just reading the book of mares dubawi has covered this year, massive improvement on what he covered previously. they include Beauty Parlour, Dar Re Mi, Ghanaati, Golden Lilac, Great Heavens, La Collina, Look Here, Natagora, Nightime, White Moonstone and Zee Zee Top. Should be a couple of good ones there in the future.
Galileo is a son of sadlers wells and she is great grand daughter . what are the rules here in regards to bredding ?

Who is

Peintre Celebre · 08-10-2014 7:09pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Who is

Treve By motivator by montheu by sadlers wells

Gringo180 · 08-10-2014 7:11pm

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Treve By motivator by montheu by sadlers wells

My bad I thought he was talking about one of the fillies going off to be covered by Dubawi.

NaiveMelodies · 09-10-2014 6:03pm

Rating of 125 for Treve... to the naked eye that seems harsh to me considering she beat Just A Way 8 lengths.. but I'm not as well informed as some of you here.

Wonder what Tryfix thinks?!

tryfix · 09-10-2014 10:49pm

only1stevo wrote: »

Rating of 125 for Treve... to the naked eye that seems harsh to me considering she beat Just A Way 8 lengths.. but I'm not as well informed as some of you here.

Wonder what Tryfix thinks?!

Quite obviously Just A Way didn't run to 130 in the Arc.

A 125 run for Treve is the equivalent of a 128 for a colt ( there's a 3lb sex allowance for all fillies and mares when running against the colts which doesn't count for official handicapping when they just take back the 3lb allowance ) so Treve ran the same race as Flintshire but with 3lb ( @ 1 1/2lb per length) weight off her back that gave a 2l advantage in the race.

In 2nd a 125 run for Flintshire ( given 124 for the race ) would be a huge run for a colt whose previous best is 120, 124 is fair enough for his run.

In 3rd Taghrooda OR 124 was beaten 3 1/4l by Treve @1.5lb a length = 5lb giving a possible 129 to Treve, but she had a terrible draw and you can't use her or you'd have to rate Flintshire 129 which he ain't.

In 4th Kingston Hill ( 120 before the race ) from the worst draw in the field was beaten by 4l @ 1.5lb a length = 6lb - 3lb sex allowance = 123 for Treve.

After that let's see what the best drawn best finishers achieved to give some kind of relative performance that you could stand by.

In 5th Dolniya very well drawn like Treve and Flintshire ( not sure of her rating before hand but she had an RPR of 117 which is a little over what an OR would be ) was beaten by 7lb which wouldn't quite stretch to a 125 OR for Treve in the race.

In 7th the well drawn Prince Gibraltar was given an 8lb - 3lb sex allowance = 5lb beating by Treve. Maybe he's now an 119/120 OR horse but it's doubtful.

In 9th Ruler Of The World was a little disappointing but he still turned around an 11 1/2l beating behind Treve last year to a 5 3/4l beating this year. That was a 9lb- 3lb sex allowance = 6lb beating this year, putting his run here at 118/119 which seems a little optimistic.. because in 10th a nose behind Ruler Of The World was Al Kazeem OR 115 who ran the exact same race with Ruler Of The World and Treve this year as Last year, an 11 1/2l beating behind Treve last year to a 5 3/4l beating this year. Which puts Treve's win at an uncomfortable 121/122. Unless Al Kazeem is to raised to an OR of 118/119. The Grey Gatsby and Australia beat Al Kazeem by 12lb+ at leopardstown.

125 for Treve is very fair on her when the evidence through Ruler Of The World and Al Kazeem points to her win this year being 9lb inferior to her 130 run last year.

Gringo180 · 09-10-2014 11:41pm

tryfix wrote: »

Quite obviously Just A Way didn't run to 130 in the Arc.

A 125 run for Treve is the equivalent of a 128 for a colt ( there's a 3lb sex allowance for all fillies and mares when running against the colts which doesn't count for official handicapping when they just take back the 3lb allowance ) so Treve ran the same race as Flintshire but with 3lb ( @ 1 1/2lb per length) weight off her back that gave a 2l advantage in the race.

In 2nd a 125 run for Flintshire ( given 124 for the race ) would be a huge run for a colt whose previous best is 120, 124 is fair enough for his run.

In 3rd Taghrooda OR 124 was beaten 3 1/4l by Treve @1.5lb a length = 5lb giving a possible 129 to Treve, but she had a terrible draw and you can't use her or you'd have to rate Flintshire 129 which he ain't.

In 4th Kingston Hill ( 120 before the race ) from the worst draw in the field was beaten by 4l @ 1.5lb a length = 6lb - 3lb sex allowance = 123 for Treve.

After that let's see what the best drawn best finishers achieved to give some kind of relative performance that you could stand by.

In 5th Dolniya very well drawn like Treve and Flintshire ( not sure of her rating before hand but she had an RPR of 117 which is a little over what an OR would be ) was beaten by 7lb which wouldn't quite stretch to a 125 OR for Treve in the race.

In 7th the well drawn Prince Gibraltar was given an 8lb - 3lb sex allowance = 5lb beating by Treve. Maybe he's now an 119/120 OR horse but it's doubtful.

In 9th Ruler Of The World was a little disappointing but he still turned around an 11 1/2l beating behind Treve last year to a 5 3/4l beating this year. That was a 9lb- 3lb sex allowance = 6lb beating this year, putting his run here at 118/119 which seems a little optimistic.. because in 10th a nose behind Ruler Of The World was Al Kazeem OR 115 who ran the exact same race with Ruler Of The World and Treve this year as Last year, an 11 1/2l beating behind Treve last year to a 5 3/4l beating this year. Which puts Treve's win at an uncomfortable 121/122. Unless Al Kazeem is to raised to an OR of 118/119. The Grey Gatsby and Australia beat Al Kazeem by 12lb+ at leopardstown.

125 for Treve is very fair on her when the evidence through Ruler Of The World and Al Kazeem points to her win this year being 9lb inferior to her 130 run last year.

Your knowledge is invaluable to this forum!

Itziger · 30-05-2015 6:42am

The dream is on. Could we see first ever hat-trick in the Arc??

Itziger · 30-05-2015 7:10am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pllvPlS9TEU

Gringo180 · 13-09-2015 3:19pm

That was awesome. She is a freak.

Johner · 13-09-2015 3:21pm

Are we sure Treve is actually a horse? Ridiculous performance.

Gringo180 · 13-09-2015 3:23pm

Johner wrote: »

Are we sure Treve is actually a horse? Ridiculous performance.

The best filly of all time.

Itziger · 13-09-2015 3:36pm

Link?

Johner · 13-09-2015 3:38pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=num6MgN5TGE

longshotvalue · 13-09-2015 3:54pm

That is just laughable. There will be no 10/1 like we got last year.

An incomparable filly.. Jockey couldn't slow her down coming near the finish.

tryfix · 13-09-2015 3:55pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

The best filly of all time.

She sure is, although there'd be plenty of Aussies and Yanks that'd dispute it.

She's a great mare, good enough to win the Arc but New Bay at the weights and times today would have beaten her.

You can't rule out Golden Horn but on collateral form with Bolger's Pleascach he's a bit to find with the French horses.

Having said that, Golden Horn is probably better at 12f but was flattered ratings wise by his Eclipse win which looks a bit devalued by The Grey Gatsby's subsequent form.

It's going to be a cracking Arc

Itziger · 13-09-2015 5:41pm

If they can keep her sweet she must have a huge chance of doing the treble which would be something else. She does like Longchamps though!

diomed · 13-09-2015 5:55pm

I hope she doesn't frighten away other good horses.
The draw, the ground (bog or hard), or a rough race might stop her.
But it is hers to lose at this stage.

tryfix · 13-09-2015 7:58pm

I think they should strike while the Iron is hot with Order Of St George by sending him to Longchamp for the Arc if the going is soft. He put up a monster performance today and good stayers such as Westerner have placed in the Arc over the years.

If Treve destroys the field in soft going then he'd run on into a place with a reproduction of today's form being good enough to win most Arcs.

jimjamcos · 13-09-2015 8:37pm

tryfix wrote: »

I think they should strike while the Iron is hot with Order Of St George by sending him to Longchamp for the Arc if the going is soft. He put up a monster performance today and good stayers such as Westerner have placed in the Arc over the years.

If Treve destroys the field in soft going then he'd run on into a place with a reproduction of today's form being good enough to win most Arcs.

He was meant to run in Lingfield Derby trial Kilimanjaro won so they obviously always rated him as a proper Derby horse and not just a stayer. Given what he's done since, it'd be no shock to see him line up. They supplemented Leading Light for it a few years back and don't think he was near as quick as him.

hawkeyethenoo · 14-09-2015 9:37am

order of st george looks a bit of a freak, looks to have plenty of gears mixed with bundles of stamina.

Francie Barrett · 14-09-2015 10:52am

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

order of st george looks a bit of a freak, looks to have plenty of gears mixed with bundles of stamina.

You could tell by the way Aidan opened when talking about him yesterday that he is a horse of massive ability.

tryfix · 14-09-2015 11:24am

Francie Barrett wrote: »

You could tell by the way Aidan noticed when talking about him yesterday that he is a horse of massive ability.

The Irish Leger produces winners that often slay the opposition like that, but that doesn't mean that the horse doesn't have the ability to go with the apparently too good to be true performance.

I'd make that a 11x 1.25lbs = 13.75/14lbs win over the second OR 117 = 131 which would put him ahead of Golden Horn. He destroyed a field full of 115 rated horses.

That makes him World Champion at the moment.

Gringo180 · 14-09-2015 10:54pm

Brown Panther murdered the Leger field last year also lads and he was just an honest Group 1/2 horse. Lets not get ahead of ourselves with Order of St George who was getting 11lbs off his rivals yesterday

Gringo180 · 14-09-2015 10:57pm

tryfix wrote: »

The Irish Leger produces winners that often slay the opposition like that, but that doesn't mean that the horse doesn't have the ability to go with the apparently too good to be true performance.

I'd make that a 11x 1.25lbs = 13.75/14lbs win over the second OR 117 = 131 which would put him ahead of Golden Horn. He destroyed a field full of 115 rated horses.

That makes him World Champion at the moment.

Wicklow Brave is rated 106 and was also beaten 11l. I would gauge his performance at around the 120 mark myself. Agent Murphy didnt travel at all yesterday like he usually does he was getting battered a long way from home.

Pinesky · 15-09-2015 9:23am

English handicapper dropped fields of athenry 4 lbs after the ebor which i didn't agree with. I'd say wiclow brave should have been 110 after ebor which he ran up to or bettered on Sun .i think order of st George ran up to 125 at least . well worth a shot at the Arc on soft .
very surprised to hear AOB talk about a 2 mile race ascot .

tryfix · 15-09-2015 11:17am

Pinesky wrote: »

English handicapper dropped fields of athenry 4 lbs after the ebor which i didn't agree with. I'd say wiclow brave should have been 110 after ebor which he ran up to or bettered on Sun .i think order of st George ran up to 125 at least . well worth a shot at the Arc on soft .
very surprised to hear AOB talk about a 2 mile race ascot .

That Ebor run of FOA is hard to suss, he ran freely and had a 5lb claimer on his back which confuses things considerably.

Wicklow Brave is a high class horse horse with few flat miles on the clock, he's a quality horse and entitled to place in group class staying flat races which puts him nearer the 110 you posit.

The RPR have Order Of St George on 124 which is the same as they have Gleneagles, Free Eagle and Jack Hobbs on which seems fair enough. That'd be about 122-123 in OR terms.

Good enough to be heading for the Arc in soft ground but O'Brien must see him as a pure stayer and has that career and linked stud career lined up for him.

He looked like he had 12f gears to me but Coolmore know their own horses.

tryfix · 16-09-2015 6:50pm

Order Of St George given 124 OR. Wicklow Brave raised to 111.

Simple Verse given 114 OR = 117 OR performance - 3lb sex allowance.

Bondi Beach stays on 115 OR which doesn't add up as he was beaten a head which would make his performance a minimum 116 ( the handicapper may be waiting for the appeal to figure which way he leans )

Fields Of Athenry stays on 114.

There's room to quibble here Storm The Stars a nose behind Fields Of Athenry is a 116 horse. Hope the handicapper hasn't given Bondi Beach a 115 because that would be very wrong in a lot of ways.