Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Pangea · 02-01-2010 11:17am

Nope actually, all we got in donegal was hail and sleet all night that froze, wheres all this snow that was predicted. Things change i guess

irish1967 · 02-01-2010 11:17am

Got electricity back about 45 mins ago. Looking at latest temp reports its a balmy 4-5 c here in Donegal. Not a drop of wind either. Must have been a hail shower earlier as it froze on contact but was expecting much worse from the band of showers that was forecast.

owenc · 02-01-2010 11:18am

Pangea wrote: »

Nope actually, all we got in donegal was hail and sleet all night that froze, wheres all this snow that was predicted. Things change i guess

well all i have here is a slushy mess and inland in garvagh it is snowing...... so irritating. i wish this trough missed here so we could keep are 1cm of snow and have a nice ice day but no we have slush and a 1c day! The rain is ment to turn to snow now apparently but it is still raining here temps are also ment to drop but are still rising 90c every second here lol

Graces7 · 02-01-2010 11:27am

Who? No radio or TV here.

Chance would be a fine thing:)

Anyways, we had a long power cut this morning, and then when I took the dogs out, sweet rain and milder.

A lot of the snow has come off the roof too.

The cold in the night was shocking.

It hurt to breathe.

That has eased a wee bit now.

Pangea wrote: »

Come down from the mountain katy daly

Graces7 · 02-01-2010 11:30am

Yes; it was off a couple of hours

Candlelight and gas heater are great.

irish1967 wrote: »

Just discovered we have no power here in Donegal town. Street lights snd all are gone. Any news Pangea or Geaces??

02-01-2010 11:30am

owenc wrote: »

yes but this is really annoying it is now the third time this has happened to me meanwhile ill go over to my aunts house and she'll have an additional 6 inches of snow topped onto her everygrowing ski house! When are these showers turning to snow and i thought temps were to go down they are up at 2.5c at the nearest sstation!:mad:

I'd advise that you read the posts on the models in this thread,they contain a lot of the answers.
It's not going to be always cold.
Anyhow I'm not a fan of Atlantic influenced flows.They're usually too warm and wet.
The same applies to the irish sea unless it has a strong continental source over it.

Bring back the beasterly

snowfan · 02-01-2010 11:33am

Temp is currently -2oC here in North Dublin (near Port Tunnel exit); 3cm of lying snow on the ground that has not melted and has actually frozen, proper powdery snow lying above the frozen snow!

It remains bitter cold now with a "feels like" wind chill of -8oC; I love proper cold weather like this but can't believe how long this spell has endured! (since around the 18th Dec?)

And it looks like there could be more snow next week?

Thanks guys for posting the charts (even though I don't know what they say!)

On the downside, it makes it very difficult to travel. Roads around Edenmore / Artane / Coolock were treacherous yesterday with cars turning sideways on the ice.

Everyone should enjoy the cold spell however there is a serious side to it and we all just have to be very careful when travelling.

Take care,

SF

Pangea · 02-01-2010 11:35am

Graces7 wrote: »

Who?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MueTirBcGQ

owenc · 02-01-2010 11:37am

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd advise that you read the posts on the models in this thread,they contain a lot of the answers.
It's not going to be always cold.
Anyhow I'm not a fan of Atlantic influenced flows.They're usually too warm and wet.
The same applies to the irish sea unless it has a strong continental source over it.

Bring back the beasterly

yes this cold spell is cold but anytime it snows the snow dosnt lie or it rains all because of cloud being there hours before the snow itself... going by nw its ment to get colder at 3pm..

Graces7 · 02-01-2010 11:42am

You asked what WAS meant? As I said when you messaged me; wait and see..

owenc wrote: »

yes this cold spell is cold but anytime it snows the snow dosnt lie or it rains all because of cloud being there hours before the snow itself... going by nw its ment to get colder at 3pm..

owenc · 02-01-2010 11:49am

Graces7 wrote: »

You asked what WAS meant? As I said when you messaged me; wait and see..

Ok i will wait and see.. it should be cold again tonight and freeze everything up to give us an ice day tomorrow.. isnt there going to be more snow on monday?

Villain · 02-01-2010 11:51am

Record low for my station at 8:50 this morning with an air temp of -8.1c!!!!

Su Campu · 02-01-2010 11:53am

owenc wrote: »

yes this cold spell is cold but anytime it snows the snow dosnt lie or it rains all because of cloud being there hours before the snow itself... going by nw its ment to get colder at 3pm..

Owen Coleraine is well exposed to the north coast and therefore the chances of snow are low at any time, especially with a northerly setup like today's. Some things you just have to accept, like death and taxes.

As I said in a previous post this morning, Eglington forecast gives a small chance of snow showers all day today. Although the airport is on the coast of Lough Foyle, it does have the Inishowen peninsula to its north, any showers have a better chance of turning to snow there. So don't be surprised when you see other places such as Eglington having snow and you not.

Graces7 · 02-01-2010 11:53am

More questions?

That was a short "wait and see"!!!

Sigh..

You will please excuse me as I have work to do now. An emergency appeal came in...

The weather can wait.

owenc wrote: »

Ok i will wait and see.. it should be cold again tonight and freeze everything up to give us an ice day tomorrow.. isnt there going to be more snow on monday?

darkman2 · 02-01-2010 11:58am

Good Morning everyone. Some astonishingly cold outputs on pretty much all models overnight. The freezing weather is set to continue for the forseeable future and the risk of snow will increase from tomorrow especially for the North and then the East with significant falls likely at times next week. The roads will remain difficult throughout.

No sign of any increase in temperatures for the next 9 days at least. In fact it looks like getting worse.

owenc · 02-01-2010 11:59am

Su Campu wrote: »

Owen Coleraine is well exposed to the north coast and therefore the chances of snow are low at any time, especially with a northerly setup like today's. Some things you just have to accept, like death and taxes.

As I said in a previous post this morning, Eglington forecast gives a small chance of snow showers all day today. Although the airport is on the coast of Lough Foyle, it does have the Inishowen peninsula to its north, any showers have a better chance of turning to snow there. So don't be surprised when you see other places such as Eglington having snow and you not.

Tell me about it the last time we got snow eglinton had snow aswell as us but by nightime it was -2c in eglinton and snowing meanwhile down here it was 0.5c and raining! i was raging... shower here now very very small graupel melting into ground! note mountains behind me look like ski slopes now if i was only 100m higher!

glossy · 02-01-2010 12:05pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Good Morning everyone. Some astonishingly cold outputs on pretty much all models overnight. The freezing weather is set to continue for the forseeable future and the risk of snow will increase from tomorrow especially for the North and then the East with significant falls likely at times next week. The roads will remain difficult throughout.

No sign of any increase in temperatures for the next 9 days at least. In fact it looks like getting worse.

thanks, off to the shops to stock up with goodies

Snowaddict · 02-01-2010 12:09pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Good Morning everyone. Some astonishingly cold outputs on pretty much all models overnight. The freezing weather is set to continue for the forseeable future and the risk of snow will increase from tomorrow especially for the North and then the East with significant falls likely at times next week. The roads will remain difficult throughout.

No sign of any increase in temperatures for the next 9 days at least. In fact it looks like getting worse.

Indeed Darkman 2

Later next week looks potentially to offer even more extreme cold, with a renewed Easterly push across the country.

The latest 06Z GEFS Ensembles all the way out to T+180 keep the Ensemble Mean - 850mb Temperatures - for Eastern areas in particular down to -9. Thats just over a week from now - which is remarkably prolonged.

I think we can express 75% confidence in severe cold persisting until Day 5, with a solid 60% confidence out to Day 7.

Interesting also now that Met Eireann are mentioning more widespread snowfall in their online update.

SA

Takeshi_Kovacs · 02-01-2010 12:09pm

Another lovely clear morning here again. A small bit of cloud forming to the west of me over Tralee bay, and temps are a bit colder than yesterday morning. Its currently around -1.0 C. Lowest it got to was -7.5 C during the night.

We have an old bathtub out the front full of water, and froze over. The ice was strong enough to hold my weight upon it, even did a few jumps to crack it, but still held firm.

WorriedSick · 02-01-2010 12:09pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Good Morning everyone. Some astonishingly cold outputs on pretty much all models overnight. The freezing weather is set to continue for the forseeable future and the risk of snow will increase from tomorrow especially for the North and then the East with significant falls likely at times next week. The roads will remain difficult throughout.

No sign of any increase in temperatures for the next 9 days at least. In fact it looks like getting worse.

Hey Darkman, quick question if you dont mind, The Met are saying there is a possibility of snow snowers along the East Coast tonight, just wondering is the set-up for Tonight the same as the set up that delivered the snow to The East Coast on New Years Eve? I am assuming they were showers that were created in The Irish Sea.

nacho libre · 02-01-2010 12:14pm

i see even inland areas of the north are getting rain out of this trough. what good is this cold spell for this side of the country if we have to wait until the precipitation is gone for the air to be cold enough at the right level to ensure snow falls instead of rain and sleet. i suppose we'll just have to hope the north easterly airflow in the coming days is fairly potent thereby increasing our chances of getting the leftovers.

So while this may be a remarkable cold period in terms of temperatures, it will be somewhat of a letdown if we don't at some point get frontal snow activity or a polar low before its ends.

darkman2 · 02-01-2010 12:15pm

Two fax synoptic charts for Monday and Tuesday

Monday night

That should be a pretty weak affair but for windward coasts in the Northern half of the country snow is likely. Winds veer more Northeastly directly behind the front.

Tuesday

Here is the potential for disruption in the North and East and other places too. The sun is not strong enough to enable any significant inland convection at this time of year. The land does not hold moisture very well so many places could stay dry inland and in the Southwest but for exposed coasts like the Northeast, East and Southeast it's a different story. This will be interesting to watch develope.

irish1967 · 02-01-2010 12:20pm

Recent light rain here. No snow here today me thinks.

Su Campu · 02-01-2010 12:21pm

Northern Ireland is under the influence of above-zero dewpoints this morning, as the northwesterly winds bring in maritime air. Aldergrove reportied a sleet shower in the last hour. Temperatures/dewpoints are

Aldergrove +1/+1
Belfast City +2/?
Eglington +3/+2
Donegal Airport +4/+2

The models have picked up on this rise in dewpoints but show them fall again around mid afternoon as the wind veers to northeasterly. But with ridging taking place from the north, and no upper support for convective activity, I don't see any wintry precipitation anywhere in Ireland, except possibly the southeast coast, within the next 24 hours

darkman2 · 02-01-2010 12:23pm

WorriedSick wrote: »

Hey Darkman, quick question if you dont mind, The Met are saying there is a possibility of snow snowers along the East Coast tonight, just wondering is the set-up for Tonight the same as the set up that delivered the snow to The East Coast on New Years Eve? I am assuming they were showers that were created in The Irish Sea.

No, there should be flurries but not heavy showers. Pressure is a bit too high.

BTW there could be rain for a time this afternoon on the East coast (not much) but with the roads and pavements the way they are any rain or sleet could freeze on impact. Snow flurries from this evening. Though they will be scattered. Not widespread and only really effecting coastal areas. Any flake that falls from the sky in areas effected on New Years eve is going to settle. No sign of a big thaw in those areas. Today Ice and Snow persisting on the ground in most places freezing again tonight. It will be some time yet before we lose what is almost akin to a permafrost in some places. Freezing rain is serious stuff to drive on if it does occur in your area this afternoon.

Meanwhile here, near Malahide, in the North County roads and pavements remain ungritted and unthawed. Nothing has melted. The sun is out but the ground temperature is so cold it's more typical of what you would see on colder parts of the Continent.

owenc · 02-01-2010 12:38pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Northern Ireland is under the influence of above-zero dewpoints this morning, as the northwesterly winds bring in maritime air. Aldergrove reportied a sleet shower in the last hour. Temperatures/dewpoints are

Aldergrove +1/+1
Belfast City +2/?
Eglington +3/+2
Donegal Airport +4/+2

The models have picked up on this rise in dewpoints but show them fall again around mid afternoon as the wind veers to northeasterly. But with ridging taking place from the north, and no upper support for convective activity, I don't see any wintry precipitation anywhere in Ireland, except possibly the southeast coast, within the next 24 hours

Ok so when the wind veers north easterly the dp should lower!:D Should they stay like this is this the last mild part of the spell?

Su Campu · 02-01-2010 12:39pm

Here's a summary (in red) of what the 11Z TAFs and local forecasts give in the way of snow showers. (Note: a TAF (Terminal Area Forecast) is valid for a 5nm radius around an airport)

Short TAFs

(CASEMENT (BALDONNEL) (MIL))TAF EIME 021050Z 0212/0221 25015KT 9999 SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 0214/0221 2000 -SHSN BKN006 SCT017CB BECMG 0217/0220 05015KT= LOW CHANCE LIGHT SNOW SHWRS 2-9PM
(BELFAST/ CITY)TAF EGAC 021102Z 0212/0221 21007KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 0212/0221 3000 SHRASN BKN014CB BECMG 0214/0217 04015KT PROB30 TEMPO 0215/0221 1200 SHSN BKN008CB= LOW CHANCE MODERATE SNOW SHWRS 3-9PM
(LONDONDERRY/ EGLINTON)TAF EGAE 021102Z 0212/0218 28010KT 9999 SCT030 BECMG 0212/0215 04015KT TEMPO 0212/0218 3000 SHRA SHRASN BKN014CB PROB30 TEMPO 0212/0218 1200 SHSN BKN008CB= LOW CHANCE MODERATE SNOW SHWRS 12-6PM

Long TAFs

(DUBLIN)TAF EIDW 021100Z 0212/0312 26015KT 9999 SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 0214/0303 1500 -SHSN BKN006 BKN017CB BECMG 0217/0220 05015KT BECMG 0306/0309 08016KT= LOW CHANCE LIGHT SNOW SHWRS 2PM-3AM
(SHANNON)TAF EINN 021100Z 0212/0312 VRB03KT 9999 SCT020 BECMG 0212/0215 26007KT PROB30 TEMPO 0218/0222 3000 -SHSN SCT006 BKN012 BECMG 0219/0222 05005KT BECMG 0303/0306 05012KT= LOW CHANCE LIGHT SNOW SHWRS 6-10PM
(CORK)TAF EICK 021100Z 0212/0312 30007KT 9999 FEW020 BECMG 0221/0224 05005KT BECMG 0303/0306 05015KT BECMG 0309/0312 07016G28KT=
(CONNAUGHT)TAF EIKN 021100Z 0212/0312 27008KT 9999 SCT020 BECMG 0212/0215 31010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0212/0218 1200 -SHSN BKN003 BKN012CB BECMG 0218/0221 05007KT BECMG 0306/0309 05012KT= LOW CHANCE LIGHT SNOW SHWRS 12-6PM
(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE)TAF EGAA 021104Z 0212/0312 26006KT 9999 FEW012 SCT030 TEMPO 0212/0221 3000 SHRASN BKN014CB PROB30 TEMPO 0212/0221 1200 SHSN BKN008CB BECMG 0214/0217 06011KT= LOW CHANCE MODERATE SNOW SHWRS 12-9PM

Local Area Forecasts

(GALWAY (CARNMORE))EICM LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 021000/021900 WIND VRB03KT BECMG 1618 07005KT VISIBILITY 9999 WEATHER NSW CLOUD SCT025 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=
(DONEGAL)EIDL LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 021000/021900 WIND 33010KT VISIBILITY 9999 TEMPO 1019 5000 WEATHER TEMPO 1019 -SHRASN CLOUD SCT023 TEMPO 1019 SCT018CB CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL= SLEET SHOWERS 10AM-7PM
(KERRY (FARRANFORE))EIKY LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 021000/021900 WIND VRB03KT VISIBILITY 9999 WEATHER NSW CLOUD SCT030 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=
(SLIGO)EISG LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 021000/021900 WIND 31012KT BECMG 1113 06006KT VISIBILITY 9999 WEATHER TEMPO 1013 -SHRASN CLOUD CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL= SLEET SHOWERS 10AM-1PM
(WATERFORD)EIWF LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 021000/021900 WIND 27004KT VISIBILITY 9999 WEATHER NSW CLOUD SCT030 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

Planet X · 02-01-2010 12:43pm

Stillorgan. Just stopped at lights and two gritters passed me (not gritting obviously) on the N11, going town direction. DLR trucks. One had a snow plough on front. Main roads fine. Cycled up to the local vegetable shop for a few bits n pieces.

nacho libre · 02-01-2010 12:45pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Northern Ireland is under the influence of above-zero dewpoints this morning, as the northwesterly winds bring in maritime air. Aldergrove reportied a sleet shower in the last hour. Temperatures/dewpoints are

Aldergrove +1/+1
Belfast City +2/?
Eglington +3/+2
Donegal Airport +4/+2

The models have picked up on this rise in dewpoints but show them fall again around mid afternoon as the wind veers to northeasterly. But with ridging taking place from the north, and no upper support for convective activity, I don't see any wintry precipitation anywhere in Ireland, except possibly the southeast coast, within the next 24 hours

so basicially once it becomes cold enough again the air is too dry. at the moment there is the moisture in the air but of course conditions have become too marginal - even though we are in a severe cold spell, conditions still can go the wrong side of marginal. by the way i'm not sniping at you just ranting to release my frustration. although i should know better at this stage considering we are an island surrounded by warm seas:)

Su Campu · 02-01-2010 12:48pm

nacho libre wrote: »

so basicially once it becomes cold enough again the air is too dry. at the moment there is the moisture in the air but of course conditions have become too marginal - even though we are in a severe cold spell, conditions still can go the wrong side of marginal. by the way i'm not sniping at you just ranting to release my frustration. although i should know better at this stage considering we are an island surrounded by warm seas:)

Hmm, that seems to be the way it's looking I'm afraid. Though I was wrong about the showers developing near the Isle of Mann last night, so let's hope I'm wrong again this time!

Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

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