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WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    jaffusmax wrote: »
    No body is sticking their necks out just mostly predicting colder than average but as always these are mostly UK based forecasts and do not take into account Irelands more westerly location!
    I thought predictions, suggestions, opinions, were about sticking one's neck out so to speak, and exactly what this forum is for. But those stats are interesting!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Kenring wrote: »
    I thought predictions, suggestions, opinions, were about sticking one's neck out so to speak, and exactly what this forum is for. But those stats are interesting!

    You can stick you neck out but not too far or you run the risk of getting it cut in half by the pitchfork welding locals! :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 837 ✭✭✭omicron


    Kenring wrote: »
    Despite one or two frost days, this year they may be less likely in either September or October. October frosts are not unusual in Ireland around the last week, but probably not this year.
    November should bring widespread frosts across Ireland, in my view, 4-8 November, 18-21 November and a sudden downward plunge into subzeros in the last few days of November with good snowfalls on November's last day.
    December frosts will probably not occur before the third week. I have the cold dry time around 17th-23rd, give or take a day or two.
    The first week in January may be very cold and frosty because of the combination of new moon and the second closest perigee for 2014. That week may bring some of the coldest temperatures of winter.
    Then I expect coldest times of months to be the second weeks of February, March and April.

    Do you mind me asking how it will happen that 30th November will have snow and then suddenly there will be no frost for 3 weeks? There will surely be some overlap between cold and mild?


  • Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    <snip>
    If anyone breaks up my Snow Dreams this winter, quicker than arctic summer sea ice.

    They will be swimming with the polar bears. Excuse me, while I get on my ice chariot to collect the pitchfork for the locals.


  • Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    omicron wrote: »
    Do you mind me asking how it will happen that 30th November will have snow and then suddenly there will be no frost for 3 weeks? There will surely be some overlap between cold and mild?
    Probably right. I never said 'suddenly'. I am talking about trends.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Kenring wrote: »
    Probably right. I never said 'suddenly'. I am talking about trends.

    Do you revise your forecasts should trends favour a different reality to your prediction?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    <Mod Snip>

    Personal attacks are not permitted on this forum nor indeed is any mention of Ken Ring's business
    Please read this
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=86564248&postcount=124

    First and final warning


  • Registered Users Posts: 822 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    any idea when M.T. Cranium will be posting his thoughts on this winter?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Popoutman


    any idea when M.T. Cranium will be posting his thoughts on this winter?

    That's the weather forecast I'm looking forwards to - MT called the summer and September pretty much right, certainly a much better trend forecast compared to other weather "opinions" so far this year.

    Been much better than a lot of the others too over the past few years of my watching this forum. Also not afraid to be called out as wrong, unlike others here!

    My preference for weather this winter is, if it is to be cold, let it be clear and cold so I can do some stargazing, If it is to be wet, let it be wet enough that the rivers come up so I can get some decent kayaking done. I don't want it to be cold, murky and damp as that sucks for all my extracurricular activities. Though that sounds quite like a typical Irish year's weather..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,829 ✭✭✭hawkwing


    19c in Dublin airport at 2000 on Sept 21st :eek:,hard to believe we could be only 7-8 weeks away from late November snow like a couple of years ago although very unlikely.Then again it was over 20c on March 28th in 2012 and a week later a car got stuck on Sally Gap in snow so things can change very quickly.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    hawkwing wrote: »
    19c in Dublin airport at 2000 on Sept 21st :eek:,hard to believe we could be only 7-8 weeks away from late November snow like a couple of years ago although very unlikely.Then again it was over 20c on March 28th in 2012 and a week later a car got stuck on Sally Gap in snow so things can change very quickly.

    From the info I have read and posted it seems like all the ingredients are there for an epic winter but I honesty don't think anyone can nail down specifics just yet. I am keeping an open mind but only open to facts and science!


  • Registered Users Posts: 822 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    Popoutman wrote: »
    That's the weather forecast I'm looking forwards to - MT called the summer and September pretty much right, certainly a much better trend forecast compared to other weather "opinions" so far this year.

    Been much better than a lot of the others too over the past few years of my watching this forum. Also not afraid to be called out as wrong, unlike others here!

    My preference for weather this winter is, if it is to be cold, let it be clear and cold so I can do some stargazing, If it is to be wet, let it be wet enough that the rivers come up so I can get some decent kayaking done. I don't want it to be cold, murky and damp as that sucks for all my extracurricular activities. Though that sounds quite like a typical Irish year's weather..
    have to say i agree with you i go by his forecast he seems to be quite consistent in his forecast and not afraid to change it either


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭Calibos


    I'll certainly be obtaining a set of Winter tyres this year just in case. :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 572 ✭✭✭relaxed


    omicron wrote: »
    Do you mind me asking how it will happen that 30th November will have snow and then suddenly there will be no frost for 3 weeks? There will surely be some overlap between cold and mild?

    Ken called end of summer 2 weeks ago, he also called close to 30 degrees in late August, never happened, the weather today is better than any day in August, I wouldn't be buying an extra carrot for a snowman based on kens wild guess, in fact better off buying sun cream, given his guesses are so bad.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,974 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Calibos wrote: »
    I'll certainly be obtaining a set of Winter tyres this year just in case. :D

    Sssshhhh don't jinx us! :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Appears to be a good start to the snow cover over Siberia this year! More of the same an we could have a nice pool of cold to the East and hopefully over Sandi should snow cover the area early this year!

    Present Snow Cover l49.gif

    2012 Snow Cover mnt4.gif


    2010 Snow Cover q4b.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    If you get a chance have a look at IWO forecast this moring , Its MT from here but they added in a little bit at the end about an early look at the winter ,

    Mix of Mild and Cold spells but "perhaps a somewhat milder theme "

    Could be another golfing winter , a silver lining on every cloud !


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,974 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Mix of Mild and Cold spells but "perhaps a somewhat milder theme "

    Could be another golfing winter , a silver lining on every cloud !


    Shut up, shut up, shut up!! :(:(:(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Loughc wrote: »
    Shut up, shut up, shut up!! :(:(:(

    My sentiments exactly!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    If you get a chance have a look at IWO forecast this moring , Its MT from here but they added in a little bit at the end about an early look at the winter ,

    Mix of Mild and Cold spells but "perhaps a somewhat milder theme "

    Could be another golfing winter , a silver lining on every cloud !

    And in fairness that would be a typical Irish winter and statistically has a much higher probability of happening rather than another 2009/2010.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    If you get a chance have a look at IWO forecast this moring , Its MT from here but they added in a little bit at the end about an early look at the winter ,

    Mix of Mild and Cold spells but "perhaps a somewhat milder theme "

    Could be another golfing winter , a silver lining on every cloud !

    im-out-of-here-eccbc87e4b5ce2fe28308fd9f2a7baf3-2689.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    It's September, don't take predictions for this Winter seriously as it's completely pointless.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    jaffusmax wrote: »
    im-out-of-here-eccbc87e4b5ce2fe28308fd9f2a7baf3-2689.gif

    MMMM I love a bit of Josh :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    leahyl wrote: »
    MMMM I love a bit of Josh :pac:

    ahhhhh Don't ruin the Gif for me!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    I am still going for a 2011 Winter for this year but this if from a Russian Paper.
    It could be the Russian Daily Mail for all I know. :D

    Europe could see coldest winter in 100 years
    http://translate.google.ie/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://jurnalul.ro/stiri/observator/iarna-care-vine-va-fi-cea-mai-rece-din-ultimii-100-de-ani-experti-rusi-651891.html

    Knowing our luck we will only get sizzle and the rest of Europe will be white.

    Edit also from kildareweather.com
    This week will be unseasonably mild. I won't use the word warm as i think mild better sums up the weather.

    Most days will see some cloud but some good sunshine to be had everywhere in Kildare.
    So far it looks good up until next weekend but lots of uncertainty beyond next sunday.

    If this weather pattern establishes itself over Ireland/Europe it could actually lead to a very cold winter and is a known as a blocking pattern whereby the jetstream stays well to the south over Spain and puts us on the cold side of the system.

    No point talking about winter just yet as lots can happen between now and then so just enjoy the weather while it lasts.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Lucreto wrote: »
    I am still going for a 2011 Winter for this year but this if from a Russian Paper.
    It could be the Russian Daily Mail for all I know. :D

    Europe could see coldest winter in 100 years
    http://translate.google.ie/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://jurnalul.ro/stiri/observator/iarna-care-vine-va-fi-cea-mai-rece-din-ultimii-100-de-ani-experti-rusi-651891.html

    That sounds familiar...

    Coldest winter in 100 years on way (From last year....heh)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    That sounds familiar...

    Coldest winter in 100 years on way (From last year....heh)

    So it is from the equivalent of the express and daily mail. :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Last Winter while not exceptionally cold nor white in this part of the country was cold enough for central heating for an exceptionally long time. It taught me an important lesson.

    I mild Winter has its benefits !!

    Like 6 months of heating bills from October to March totalling €900 instead of €1700.

    Nov/Dec 2010 Snowfest Winter was actually a cheap Winter in terms of heating bills for me. It didn't matter whether it was +5ºc or -5ºc that Nov/Dec. The heating needed to be on regardless. However, Oct 2010 and Jan 2011 onwards were average temp wise IIRC. So a month of snow on the ground didn't actually affect our heating bills that Winter at all really. Winter 2012/2013 was a heating requiring +5ºc for 6 whole months it seemed.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    Dzalinda in siberia is -3 with light snow and is expected to drop to -6c by the end of the week.:eek: and by November 1st it can fall as low as - 20c


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Nights are closing in fast now, the silly season is almost here :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Indeed

    35 days until the hour changes and back to long dark nights.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    And in fairness that would be a typical Irish winter and statistically has a much higher probability of happening rather than another 2009/2010.

    You couldn't be further from the truth.

    Statistically 2009/10 winters happen more often. It's just since records began we have had unusually mild winters.

    Let me draw your attention to some cave art found in Cavan of all places. The art work is a bit crude. But you can make out the details.

    This one dates back to 5,500bc, you can see the Cavan mountains in there. Scientists believe we had so much snow, the weight flattened the mountains. Science doesn't lie.
    tumblr_static_winter-wallpaper-widescreen.jpg


    And this one here which dates back to 4,500bc
    Look at this poor fellow, frozen to death. Cavemen knew the dangers, this guy was most likely homeless cave man. At least he went out with a smile. No doubt enjoying the very thing that killed him.

    12-Dec-Snow-Man1.jpg


    So people who come in here predicting no extreme snow event. Take your informed educated prediction some where else.
    History doesn't lie.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    Nabber wrote: »
    You couldn't be further from the truth.

    Statistically 2009/10 winters happen more often. It's just since records began we have had unusually mild winters.

    Let me draw your attention to some cave art found in Cavan of all places. The art work is a bit crude. But you can make out the details.

    This one dates back to 5,500bc, you can see the Cavan mountains in there. Scientists believe we had so much snow, the weight flattened the mountains. Science doesn't lie.
    tumblr_static_winter-wallpaper-widescreen.jpg


    And this one here which dates back to 4,500bc
    Look at this poor fellow, frozen to death. Cavemen knew the dangers, this guy was most likely homeless cave man. At least he went out with a smile. No doubt enjoying the very thing that killed him.

    12-Dec-Snow-Man1.jpg


    So people who come in here predicting no extreme snow event. Take your informed educated prediction some where else.
    History doesn't lie.....

    :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I'm sorry, but thats not Cavan.

    It's Monaghan.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    The People v Winter



    Enjoy :D There's even a few clips from Ireland


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Lumi wrote: »
    The People v Winter



    Enjoy :D There's even a few clips from Ireland

    Ha I know it is bad but I would love to see this type of weather. Most of the cars slipping looks like they are in residential areas I just hope the main roads would be better.

    MENTAL NOTE park in driveway if we do get heavy snow after seeing those cars and knowing my neighbours.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Only one word springs to mind watching that.... OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    Lucreto wrote: »
    Ha I know it is bad but I would love to see this type of weather. Most of the cars slipping looks like they are in residential areas I just hope the main roads would be better.

    MENTAL NOTE park in driveway if we do get heavy snow after seeing those cars and knowing my neighbours.

    And dont drive to fast;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    CFS has reverted back to a colder scenario


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  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Vudgie


    I gave this thread a thought when I visited Alaska recently.

    A guy was telling me 'oh its not too bad here we get 10 feet of snow in the winter so its fine, up in the ice fields there is 10 times that amount'.

    I refrained from mentioning that friends of mine were 'snowed in' in a couple of cm!!!!;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    I am really hoping against hope that we will have clear frosty nights with snow lying during this event late Nov in to early Dec. Would be magical!


    http://earthsky.org/space/big-sun-diving-comet-ison-might-be-spectacular-in-2013

    'Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) has been the most talked-about comet of 2013. When discovered in late 2012, it was said to have the potential to become a striking object visible to the eye alone around the time of its perihelion – or closest point to the sun – on November 28, 2013'
    CFS has reverted back to a colder scenario

    Will be mild in 24hr again :P:pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Weather wise our winters are interesting in fairness.

    People just want snow. But there is much more too it.

    I intend to enjoy int either way. I'd like a dry winter this year. Temps don't bother me. But Dry would be just nice.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I haven't looked, but I bet there is some real eye candy on the CFS February charts this morning with this kind of blocking. Will probably have reverted back to mild again by this afternoon though.

    5MetGMy.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Tindie


    Exacta Weather updated the winter forcast (Sorry if it was already posted) and this weekend forcast as well
    The coming days will bring some quite extensive cloud cover for many parts of the country, although some brighter spells will develop in parts to the south and east of the country.

    There will also be some periods of fine rain and showers developing in places, especially in parts to the far north and west of the country. As we head into the weekend, a surge of thunderstorm activity will initially break out across parts of the south, in particular, in parts of the south-west and Wales, before spreading northwards to other parts of the country. The intensity of the storms and expected rainfall may also bring the risk of some surface or flash-flooding in places.

    The heavy rain will also be accompanied by some strong winds throughout this weekend, especially in coastal areas to the south of the country. Areas to the north are likely to see the best of any drier and brighter conditions developing under variable cloud cover.

    The unsettled theme and further periods of rain and strong winds will also continue into next week and the start of October, with the best of any drier and brighter spells developing in parts to the east of the country. It will also feel quite warm at times for the start of October, especially in parts of southern and eastern England.

    However, it is likely to turn progressively cooler for most as we advance throughout October, especially towards the end of the month and into the start of November.

    This will bring the risk of some significant snow across higher ground in parts of the north for this part of the forecasting period.

    There is also the additional risk of some snow to lower levels of the country in this part of the forecasting period and into the early part of November, some parts of the south may even see some snow falling in places for the second consecutive year in October and the early part of November.

    Widespread frosts and some dense fog patches are also to be expected for this period too.

    There is also likely to be some further periods of wet and stormy weather conditions for the British Isles in October and November, which will also be accompanied by some very strong and potentially damaging winds at times, in particular, throughout October.

    Stormy October followed by a cold and maybe snow november , sounds too perfect :D , My fingers are crossed for this :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,019 ✭✭✭ct5amr2ig1nfhp


    That's the UK (and Ireland?) long range forecast if anyone is wondering. See here.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    Exacta ? Isn't that james madden? why do people still post proven codswallop. If we were to go by him,we'd still be digging out the snow from 2011.... (yeah that really snowy winter...) Another snake oil salesman.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    I wonder if MT's will continue on with this line of thought!


    "Roger J Smith

    Posted 18 July 2013 - 21:40
    No worries, at least we tried to fix it up. I ran the winter 2013-14 part of my research model after spending a couple of hours checking out the input (if a column in the excel file ends the factor stops chipping into the overall model). The output looks milder than any winter since 2008 anyway, but there is a cold spell in mid-January. Otherwise most of the season looks rather mild. Will do a lot more work on this forecast before October, so that's just a very preliminary thought about winter 2013-14. Posted elsewhere my thoughts on the autumn ahead."

    http://http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-19#entry2740758


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Thats its Mr Block... you keep showing up sitting down nicely there over Greenland, thats it ... :)


    273721.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    jaffusmax wrote: »
    I wonder if MT's will continue on with this line of thought!


    "Roger J Smith

    Posted 18 July 2013 - 21:40
    No worries, at least we tried to fix it up. I ran the winter 2013-14 part of my research model after spending a couple of hours checking out the input (if a column in the excel file ends the factor stops chipping into the overall model). The output looks milder than any winter since 2008 anyway, but there is a cold spell in mid-January. Otherwise most of the season looks rather mild. Will do a lot more work on this forecast before October, so that's just a very preliminary thought about winter 2013-14. Posted elsewhere my thoughts on the autumn ahead."



    http://http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-19#entry2740758
    that was back last July, things have twisted and turned since then.


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