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WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Brrrilliant


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,176 ✭✭✭pauldry


    5c in roscommon now so zero a possibility.

    It wont be a cold autumn though

    Just the next couple of days

    Next week is warm again .... 22c


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    Latest CFS 18z shows a cold winter and spring:eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    Latest CFS 18z shows a cold winter and spring:eek:

    Yeah but its always horribly unreliable!
    Probably means useless/nuisance blocking in march and April.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    http://spaceweather.com/

    Very quite Sun last few weeks, lets see if it continues into winter and if so what effect it may have!


  • Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    jaffusmax wrote: »
    http://spaceweather.com/

    Very quite Sun last few weeks, lets see if it continues into winter and if so what effect it may have!

    From the last few winters of observation, we tend to get longer spells of more settled weather patterns when the Sun is less active.

    I'd be hopeful if the Sun stayed quiet that this might give us a few opportunities over the winter for some decent cold and snow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Interesting video from US Meteorologist Joe Bastardi which gives a brief look at some of the anomalies being thrown out by some of the seasonal models for the coming winter (forward to 7 minutes 6 seconds onward).



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    You can get a free, one-week trial of WeatherBELL Premium at the moment including 'access to blogs and videos from Joe Bastardi, Joe D’Aleo and Dr. Ryan Maue, as well as high-resolution weather models, an extensive historical weather database'
    go to www.weatherbell.com and sign in using the following credentials:

    Username: snowice
    Password: winter2013


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Getting ready for another winter.

    If nothing else it is always exciting.

    Based on the averages, I'm guessing this winter will be average :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    Interesting video from US Meteorologist Joe Bastardi which gives a brief look at some of the anomalies being thrown out by some of the seasonal models for the coming winter (forward to 7 minutes 6 seconds onward).


    2013 and 2014 winters are the ones joe has been going on about for a few years now.

    Let it roll.:)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    ALMOST-BLANK SUN: 2013 is supposed to be a year of solar maximum. Indeed, the sun's magnetic field is poised to flip, a long-held sign that Solar Max has arrived. But if this is Solar Max, it looks a lot like Solar Min. The face of the sun is almost completely blank:

    A careful inspection of the solar disk reveals only two sunspots, very small and quiet. NOAA forecasters estimate no more than a 1% chance of M- or X-class flares during the next 24 hours.

    In fact, this is Solar Max, the weakest one in more than 50 years. Long spells of quiet and spotlessness are punctuated by occasional flares and CMEs. At least one researcher believes the ongoing maximum is actually double-peaked, and we are now experiencing the valley between peaks. If so, a surge in solar activity could be in the offing in late-2013 and 2014. Stay tuned.

    http://spaceweather.com/


  • Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Has mt done his winter predictions yet? Wasn't it early September!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    whitebriar wrote: »
    Yeah but its always horribly unreliable!
    Probably means useless/nuisance blocking in march and April.

    Just re CFS, I took note of its long range forecasts in and around November for the last 2 years and it actually turned out to have modelled December to March quite accurately (in overview - obviously not on a day to day level). In particular it predicted Feb 2012 would be freezing throughout Europe except Ireland and it predicted last year's late winter. I wouldn't ignore it certainly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Simon Keeling is a professional forecaster that updates his FREE Weather Site daily and is really good!!!!

    At 3:55 he gives an update on the JMA Long Range Model (which is one of the best around) and it clearly shows plenty of blocking to the west of Europe over the Winter months indicating brrrrrrrrrr. The JMA has preformed very well over the summer having showed the July blocking that brought us much needed summer sun!

    Now of course no fine detail is never nailed down this far out and exactly where the blocking would be and for what area would be optimal for cold is impossible to tell. BUT it his hard to deny that now both the CFS and the JMA are in line showing that this winter may not be the zonal snoozefest of many a recent year!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,357 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Ken Ring about to feature on Newstalk pat kenny, also quoted in the indo. When will the media cop on?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,977 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Temptatures are around 17C this weekend, that's quiet mild for this time for year no? Are we looking at a mild winter this year? :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Ken Ring about to feature on Newstalk pat kenny, also quoted in the indo. When will the media cop on?

    Unfortunately facts and real science are too boring for the media! I like most of ye will be watching the forecasting models as they roll in all over the Winter!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Well, for the UK... here's what James Madman thinks will happen (pinched form the forum pages of the Daily Fail newspaper-thingy) - note this is an actual forecast... not an outlook... as always, take it with a pinch of anti-snow (salt)... but I do hope he's right and it extends into Ireland rather then just stopping once it hits the Irish snow barrier.

    UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow Periods

    December 2013

    The first month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to see a very cold and snowy start to winter. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. The northern half of the country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the vast majority of the whole month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of north-east England. Parts of southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are also likely to
    experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout December, especially in parts of southern England and Wales. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout the early part of the December period too.

    December Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for most parts of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, and even more so throughout the Christmas period and into the early part of 2014. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -20C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime
    at times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period.

    December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for some lengthy periods of time in December. The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 23rd to the 31st December (Especially in northern, eastern and southern parts).

    January 2014

    The second month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to be exceptionally cold and very snowy. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country, and a scenario similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible. The vast majority of the whole country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the whole of the month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of southern England. Parts of
    northern England, eastern England, Wales, western England, the Midlands, and Northern Ireland are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout January. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption on a prolific scale to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout much of the January period too.

    January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too.

    January Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some very heavy falls of snow across most parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for the vast majority of January. Snow drifts of several feet are also a distinct possibility for this part of the forecasting period. The risk of snowfall will remain with large parts of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1st to the 15th January.

    February 2014

    The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with the cold and snowy theme. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. Many parts of the country are likely to experience a run of below average temperatures throughout the month and multiple major snow events, especially in parts of northern and southern England. It is likely that there will be disruption to the public transport network across these parts at times and school closures throughout the February period too. However, a number of brief periods of moderation can’t be ruled for this part of the forecasting period (normal winter conditions), especially in the latter part of this forecasting period.

    February Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), especially to the north of the country. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too,
    but not consistently due to a number of brief periods of moderation for this part of the forecasting period.

    February Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some significant falls of snow across parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern and southern England. The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Fair play to him for being able to keep spelling mistakes down to a bare minimum because obviously he had a few sherberts in him while writing this!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    He's actually hitting the nail on the head.. I mean not just everyone can make this acute observation: "The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow..." ... kind of leaves me with a blank expression on my face as if my plumber just observed that "turning on a tap is likely to release water from it..."


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Snowmaker wrote: »
    He's actually hitting the nail on the head.. I mean not just everyone can make this acute observation: "The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow..." ... kind of leaves me with a blank expression on my face as if my plumber just observed that "turning on a tap is likely to release water from it..."


    If it does happen I will email him personally! :D

    What a read though!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Ken Ring about to feature on Newstalk pat kenny, also quoted in the indo. When will the media cop on?

    You're perfectly entitled to your view Larbre34 and the following is not directed at you personally however your post gives me the opportunity to raise an issue that the Forum Mods have been discussing over the last few days

    To all Forum Users

    Ken Ring has a following in Ireland who enjoy hearing about his thoughts on the weather - the popular media obviously recognise his appeal otherwise they wouldn't feature his forecasts as often as they do.

    His methods and theories are not everyone's 'cup of tea' and I know that many who post here prefer a more main-stream, model-based approach to forecasting and are critical of Ken's methodologies.

    However, everyone has the right to post here and opposing approaches and theories can make for interesting discussions and a vibrant forum if they remain civil. I would ask everyone to try to ensure that their posts follow the spirit and intent of our forum charter

    To put it simply, play the ball not the man, challenge posts by all means but refrain from personal attacks, use the report post button if you find a post objectionable, Do Not respond on thread.
    Finally, if a fellow users views irritate you, add them to your ignore list

    Thanks


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    James Madden, Ken Ring, Mark Vogan and Joe Bastardi can all be lumped in at chancers in my opinion but they are entitled to give their views. People actually pay for their works and I would rather people be prepared even with long shot predictions like these. As Lumi said all view points on predictions are wellcome here.

    It is far too early to say what the winter will bring but it does get me excited hearing lots of snow, Maddens prediction even if its one in a million chance is like a fanfiction.

    I was taken in my Madden after the 2010 snow but he like many other have been wrong since. I prefer the wait and see approach.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Anyone noticed the article from 2011 in the Daily Mail floating about Facebook? Driving me insane everytime I see it :(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Anyone noticed the article from 2011 in the Daily Mail floating about Facebook? Driving me insane everytime I see it :(

    Which one? I see a few different ones. But I am guessing it is Maddens prediction for heavy snow and it turned out a mild Winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Back to science now !

    http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/winter-forecast-201314/


    'Preliminary Forecast
    At this stage, we are only able to offer our very preliminary thoughts on the upcoming winter. We should be able to provide you with our more in depth preliminary winter forecast during the Autumn, before releasing the final forecast some time in November.
    At present, our expectations are of a cooler than average winter, carrying on the trend from the last few winters, with snowfall likely to be more frequent than was the case during the milder winters of the 90′s/00′s. December currently looks like it will finish slightly above average temperature wise, though rather unsettled conditions are likely to dominate.
    January and February, as things stand, look likely to finish below average temperature wise, with some frequent colder spells particularly during February. The first of these cold spells at present would look likely to set in around the middle 2 weeks of January, with a more generally colder than average theme expected through the month of February as a whole.
    How are our forecasts derived?'

    Also a Long Vid but very very interesting. :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    US Farmers' Almanac predicts a nasty 2013-2014 winter

    2014-USFA-Winter.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    For those whom cannot be bothered with Models, Ken Ring, Madden, Met Eireann, Met Office...................................... use one of these and you wont go wrong this winter.

    aysl.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 172 ✭✭shootie


    I don't think I've ever seen a "milder than average" winter predicted ever.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10 Killeenadeema


    It will be cold earlier this year (November / December) with snow in these months. It will be a very windy new year as has been the case for last number of years


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    shootie wrote: »
    I don't think I've ever seen a "milder than average" winter predicted ever.

    No me neither, never, even the ones that predict a mild few months at the beginning or the end are sure to throw in the bone of at least one 'severe' month to get people talking or what? I don't know. The best months for model watching are December and January, and up until Valentine's Day, at least when you see the cold uppers you know they will be reflected on the ground. After that you just know it is going to be second prize.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    sw5mas.jpg

    Out in la la land but oh my!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,855 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    It will be cold earlier this year (November / December) with snow in these months. It will be a very windy new year as has been the case for last number of years


    That's the opposite to last years winter weather. The snow came in Jan/Feb


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,456 ✭✭✭✭Mr Benevolent


    shootie wrote: »
    I don't think I've ever seen a "milder than average" winter predicted ever.

    Which strongly suggests that these winter forecasts are little more than wishful thinking.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,645 ✭✭✭Daniel2590


    I'm predicting these next 3 months (December to February) to be cooler than the rest of the months of the year, with a possibility of frost at times. It may or may not be wet and windy at times.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Another Vid from Simon Keeling highlighting the idea that this upcoming Winter is shaping up to be quite different than we are used to based on what the models are churning out. But as he says it is not a forecast that we WILL get a very cold winter but there is no denying that the atmosphere appears to be becoming more conductive to high pressure blocking to the North of Europe.



    Also

    'LONELY SUNSPOT, QUIET SUN: The sunspot number has dropped to its lowest level of the year. Solitary sunspot AR1841 sits all alone at the center of an otherwise blank solar disk. It is quiet and poses no threat for strong flares:'

    http://spaceweather.com/

    And Finally some eye candy

    zd4d.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    That Azores high is the big question. Personally I think it will shift south and periodically move northwards pumping mild air over us. I am not so sure of a forthcoming cold November December scenario. I think the damn thing will plague us. The next few weeks are vital on how that Azores High behaves. My bet is on for a mild scenario for winter


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,456 ✭✭✭✭Mr Benevolent


    That Azores high is the big question. Personally I think it will shift south and periodically move northwards pumping mild air over us. I am not so sure of a forthcoming cold November December scenario. I think the damn thing will plague us. The next few weeks are vital on how that Azores High behaves. My bet is on for a mild scenario for winter

    I believe you're right.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    That Azores high is the big question. Personally I think it will shift south and periodically move northwards pumping mild air over us. I am not so sure of a forthcoming cold November December scenario. I think the damn thing will plague us. The next few weeks are vital on how that Azores High behaves. My bet is on for a mild scenario for winter


    nevermind-eccbc87e4b5ce2fe28308fd9f2a7baf3-214.gif

    I know I am posting alot of the positive info regarding cold potential this year but you cannot argue with reality!

    DAMN YOU REALITY! :mad:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Neg NAO predicted by some this year. I just came across this chaps blog but his forecast does hold some credence!

    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/north-atlantic-oscillation-2013-2014.html

    8lqv.jpg


    Apologies I am on a roll

    http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=848
    Simon Keeling

    Here are the probabilities given this morning, and I thought you might like to see them too.

    - Very cold (mean temperature >2C below normal) 25%
    - Cold (mean temperatures >1C below normal) 30%
    - Normal (mean temperatures +1 to -1C) 20%
    - Warm (mean temperatures >1C above normal 15%
    - Very warm (mean temperatures >5C above normal 10%


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    Daily mail have their media splurge of cold ramping out early this year... Not as early as some years mind you

    market://details?id=com.dailymail.tablet


  • Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Snowmaker wrote: »
    Well, for the UK... here's what James Madman thinks will happen - The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February..
    Yes it is what I have told Irish radio stations is likely to happen across Ireland. I believe that will be the worst of winter. Winter is again close to being typical for Ireland, not expected to be severe, but likely to serve some very cold spells with rain and snow, for instance in that third week of February.


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    Kenring wrote: »
    Yes it is what I have told Irish radio stations is likely to happen across Ireland. I believe that will be the worst of winter. Winter is again close to being typical for Ireland, not expected to be severe, but likely to serve some very cold spells with rain and snow, for instance in that third week of February.
    Hi Ken,Are you also going for a cold winter? The Azores high and how it plays will be a big part of our winter particulary the first part. That's how I think winter will pan out. I personally respect your views


  • Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Hi Ken,Are you also going for a cold winter? The Azores high and how it plays will be a big part of our winter particulary the first part. That's how I think winter will pan out. I personally respect your views
    Despite one or two frost days, this year they may be less likely in either September or October. October frosts are not unusual in Ireland around the last week, but probably not this year.
    November should bring widespread frosts across Ireland, in my view, 4-8 November, 18-21 November and a sudden downward plunge into subzeros in the last few days of November with good snowfalls on November's last day.
    December frosts will probably not occur before the third week. I have the cold dry time around 17th-23rd, give or take a day or two.
    The first week in January may be very cold and frosty because of the combination of new moon and the second closest perigee for 2014. That week may bring some of the coldest temperatures of winter.
    Then I expect coldest times of months to be the second weeks of February, March and April.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,977 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    I'm dreaming of a white Christmas... well not anymore... dreams smashed now! :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Loughc wrote: »
    I'm dreaming of a white Christmas... well not anymore... dreams smashed now! :(

    Why? I respect people follow Ken but Winter has not even started and Kens forecast is only one perspective with his own methods!

    I will be model watching and checking up on professional weather forecasters predictions myself!


  • Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Loughc wrote: »
    I'm dreaming of a white Christmas... well not anymore... dreams smashed now! :(
    I think it is possible this time for some to get a wee flurry or two of snow on Xmas, but it is impossible to speak for every valley, nook and hollow. North-facing elevated inland locations will always get the snow if any is about. But I don't think many if any will be huge dumps. It is more likely to be either frosty, occasional sleet, hail, cold rain of cold fog. The term "white Xmas" is a bit subjective. To me it means a thick blanket of snow as far as the eye can see, but that may be just me. And I can't see that arriving on the 25th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    jaffusmax wrote: »
    I will be..checking up on professional weather forecasters predictions myself!
    Very good idea! So - are they saying anything at all about Xmas?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    "The maximum amount of lying snow ever recorded on Christmas Day was 27 centimetres at Casement Aerodrome in 2010.
    At Dublin Airport, there have been 12 Christmas Days with snowfall since 1941 (1950, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1970, 1984, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2004). The statistical likelihood of snow falling on Christmas Day at Dublin Airport is approximately once every 5.9 years. However, the only Christmas Day at the airport ever to have lying snow at 09:00 was 2010 (although no snow actually fell that day), with 20 centimetres recorded."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Christmas_(weather)#White_Christmases_in_the_United_Kingdom

    Statistically a white Xmas in Ireland are pretty rare but more importantly not impossible!
    Kenring wrote: »
    Very good idea! So - are they saying anything at all about Xmas?

    No body is sticking their necks out just mostly predicting colder than average but as always these are mostly UK based forecasts and do not take into account Irelands more westerly location!


This discussion has been closed.
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