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How long before Irish reunification?

24567201

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭BarryD2


    2011 wrote: »
    Many have this romantic view of a united ireland, but few have actually thought of how the reality would work in practice. There is the cost for a start, every second person in the north seems to be some sort of civil servant. People up there also have certain expectations in terms of public services which we are incapable of delivering on. As has been pointed out already we would have to deal with intransigent unionism. On top of all of that we would have to deal with terrorists groupings on both sides who would have have to keep "the lads" busy with criminality / drug dealing /extortion etc. to an even greater extent than they do now. Our security forces are not equipped to deal with that.

    The underlined above is the big question mark. The Brits (to their credit in some ways) saw the inequalities in NI which led to the restarting of The Troubles and sought to address that by buying peace as a policy. By pumping money in, providing more jobs, better housing and facilities - look at the number of public swimming pools up there as a measure. There's a nice fairly well heeled cross community middle class now who live in comfortable suburban houses and who are bank rolled by the state. No way they'll be looking to give that up too quickly.

    I used to think of the unionist community as more characterised by business and industry and I think they still are to some extent but it's industry with a small 'i' now. That they'd be pragmatic at the end of the day and see that they'd be better off throwing their lot in with the south. But I think they've been subverted too by the lure of public funding and state jobs, so that business incentive has been dissipating. From their POV, they may as well cling to the Union as that pays the bills.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,615 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    What?

    Why investments go to Belfast as opposed to any other city in Ireland, in an united Ireland.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    We could introduce the Éire Nua system of federal governments. This will have huge benefits for Munster, Connacht, Ulster and Leinster.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,615 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    NI always puts me in mind of this poem.

    I have lived in important places, times
    When great events were decided, who owned
    That half a rood of rock, a no-man's land
    Surrounded by our pitchfork-armed claims.
    I heard the Duffys shouting "Damn your soul!"
    And old McCabe stripped to the waist, seen
    Step the plot defying blue cast-steel -
    "Here is the march along these iron stones."
    That was the year of the Munich bother. Which
    Was more important? I inclined
    To lose my faith in Ballyrush and Gortin
    Till Homer's ghost came whispering to my mind.
    He said: I made the Iliad from such
    A local row. Gods make their own importance.

    Patrick Kavanagh


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    30-40 years
    mariaalice wrote: »
    Why investments go to Belfast as opposed to any other city in Ireland, in an united Ireland.

    Higher population, proximity to Dublin, good transport including an airport, generally lower wages than ROI, basically a mini-Dublin but with a lower cost of living. Belfast today is similar to Dublin 15 years ago.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,615 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Higher population, proximity to Dublin, good transport including an airport, generally lower wages than ROI, basically a mini-Dublin but with a lower cost of living. Belfast today is similar to Dublin 15 years ago.

    The cost would merge over time, Cork and Limerick have airports.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 12,602 Mod ✭✭✭✭2011


    Ulster Says No. It will never happen
    We will have a vote in approximately 10 years

    .....and regardless of how the vote goes in the north the ROI is highly likely to vote no to reunification. The end.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 43 Censored11


    It's a public poll, and I noticed that your username appeared twice (and nobody else's did). I'm not saying you did anything wrong...but I'm not ruling it out. :pac:

    Has to be the ghost of Ian Paisley corrupting the poll... scary stuff!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    2011 wrote: »
    .....and regardless of how the vote goes in the north the ROI is highly likely to vote no to reunification. The end.

    You are just making that up. The end.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 494 ✭✭LordBasil


    20-30 years
    I voted 15-20 Years in the poll but it really is impossible to say if or when a United Ireland could happen. The biggest game changer is Brexit and nobody knows how this will pan out. Brexit has pushed the possibility of a United Ireland back into the political landscape where as before 2016, nobody other than Sinn Fein was really giving the idea much attention.

    A united Ireland would not happen overnight, there would have to be a long transition period with a defined end date. There are so many things that would need to be sorted out before then like dealing with a hostile unionist population, creating a re-organised civil service, training teachers to teach new syllabuses and subjects to move from GSCE and A Levels to Junior Cert and Leaving Cert, dealing with the status of the Irish Language (would it still be compulsory for JC & LC?), sorting out things like taxation, electricity supplies, communications, water... the list is endless.

    I believe a united Ireland would be beneficial in the long term, especially to the border counties, but would have several short and medium term difficulties that will be hard to overcome.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 422 ✭✭Popeleo


    30-40 years
    The demographics might be there soon but attempting reunification too early would be a mistake imho. Better to wait a few years after a nationalist majority in Stormont and see how the loyalists take to being the minority. Could be nasty for a while.

    The upside is that the demographic change is very quick, so there is a possibility that if the nationalist vote goes around 60%, no amount of tactical voting, gerrymandering etc will be able to make a loyalist majority possible. And maybe then both sides might elect adult politicians instead of the polarised dregs of society on both sides now and help make the eventual transition to a UI easier. Maybe. We live in hope.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,802 ✭✭✭✭suicide_circus


    Geuze wrote: »
    Would people be happy to pay the much higher property taxes that people in the UK pay to fund the councils?

    For example, 1,200 euro pa LPT instead of the 225 that many people pay.

    Also, many people in the UK pay 500 euro pa for water charges.
    No way, we wont pay!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,960 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    30-40 years
    I'd be surprised if it happened in less than 20 years. Ireland is gradually unifying economically/socially anyway which explains why a lot of the more bitter unionists are pro-Brexit.

    I'd be surprised if there hasn't been a further shift in the constitution status of Northern Ireland by 2050, but I'm still unsure as to whether it'll be full re-unification, or more baby steps towards it.

    IMO working in baby steps to make it seem a natural, inevitable next step instead of a big bang change would be more likely to succeed, but I'm not convinced we have the political leadership (in Govt or opposition parties) to think that strategically about it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭Vita nova


    30-40 years
    The government has a clear constitutional imperative to work towards a UI but but there's an enormous amount of preparation to do including wooing the NI unionists before putting it to the people. What's not wanted is a Brexit style mess where implementing the will of the people is virtually impossible or detrimental. I'd say 20 to 30 years is realistic.
    Extract from article 3 of the constitution:

    It is the firm will of the Irish nation, in harmony
    and friendship, to unite all the people who share
    the territory of the Island of Ireland, in all the
    diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only
    by peaceful means with the consent of a majority
    of the people, democratically expressed, in both
    jurisdictions in the island....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,404 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    If there was a vote on it does the south of Ireland get to vote? How could the vote lose if that was the case.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,931 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Vita nova wrote: »
    The government has a clear constitutional imperative to work towards a UI but but there's an enormous amount of preparation to do including wooing the NI unionists before putting it to the people. What's not wanted is a Brexit style mess where implementing the will of the people is virtually impossible or detrimental. I'd say 20 to 30 years is realistic.

    There has been work done on it. Quite a bit. More to be done though.

    https://webarchive.oireachtas.ie/parliament/media/committees/implementationofthegoodfridayagreement/jcigfa2016/brexit-and-the-future-of-ireland.pdf


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,266 ✭✭✭threeball


    20-30 years
    If there was a vote on it does the south of Ireland get to vote? How could the vote lose if that was the case.

    Because right now most of the south would vote no. It would mean higher taxes, has the potential of unionist terrorism in the south plus a myriad of other issues.


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭Vita nova


    30-40 years
    If there was a vote on it does the south of Ireland get to vote? How could the vote lose if that was the case.

    Yes, there would be referendums in both jurisdictions but both would need to have a majority in favour of unity.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,812 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    It's too hard to judge till after Brexit. With a bad economic Brexit followed by a loss of Scotland it's doubtful the remainder of the Union will be willing to keep pumping money into NI indefinitely, a NI that will also be badly hit by Brexit. In a recent poll only 30% (iirc) of people said they cared about keeping NI in the Union, not to mention the awful backwards stance of DUP run NI. Independence or reunification will need to follow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭Infini


    10-15 years
    The truth is Brexit is the wild card in all of this, if the UK crashes out Unification is likely within a decade if not it could be 2 and if it doesn't happen at all it'll likely be longer than that even.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,264 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    Once people here about a solidarity surcharge, then you can be pretty sure the majority will vote against any form of a unification.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,938 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    20-30 years
    Gwynplaine wrote: »
    Hopefully it will never happen. The Brits don't want it, and the majority of Ireland don't want it either.

    I wouldn't say the majority don't want it to happen, but they certainly do not want it to happen with some arbitrary idea of what might or might not happen once it starts being implemented.

    Brexit has both made it more likely that it will happen and ensured that it will not for at least a generation.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    jester77 wrote: »
    Once people here about a solidarity surcharge, then you can be pretty sure the majority will vote against any form of a unification.

    Again, you are just making this up!

    Once the British and EU agree to pump millions into the Irish economy, the majority will vote for reunification.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,500 ✭✭✭✭DEFTLEFTHAND


    Maybe it's time to go back.

    The Act of Union 2020.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    Maybe it's time to go back.

    The Act of Union 2020.

    If they beg then I'm sure we can accept the Brits into the Irish isles.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,213 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    15-20 years
    I pay a large amount of my income in taxes (net tax rate approx 30%). I would be happy to pay additional tax in order to fund a united ireland.

    I am a republican - and I believe we can achieve reunification through peaceful means within 10 years. Especially in case of a hard brexit.

    Part of me would prefer a return to Stormont with SF in majority beforehand.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,012 ✭✭✭uch


    I'd say it'll be by Friday week at best

    21/25



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭BarryD2


    Maybe it's time to go back.

    The Act of Union 2020.

    I'm sure that's tongue in cheek but there's an element of truth in it. Reading many of the comments on this thread and others like it, shows the complete lack of readiness in this Republic for a change like this. There's a sense of arrogance, assumption and inevitability that such a change will happen.

    To effect this peacefully and amicably, which would be a bottom line for the majority, really requires a considerable rethink of many green sacred cows. In some ways, we need to move back to 1914, when we had a united island with a Home Rule bill promised. We need to undo the last century, go back figuratively in our heads to that time and then move forward as one.

    We shouldn't forget the history of blood sacrifice, but it needs to be put to one side, realign and then move on together.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    BarryD2 wrote: »
    I'm sure that's tongue in cheek but there's an element of truth in it. Reading many of the comments on this thread and others like it, shows the complete lack of readiness in this Republic for a change like this. There's a sense of arrogance, assumption and inevitability that such a change will happen.

    To effect this peacefully and amicably, which would be a bottom line for the majority, really requires a considerable rethink of many green sacred cows. In some ways, we need to move back to 1914, when we had a united island with a Home Rule bill promised. We need to undo the last century, go back figuratively in our heads to that time and then move forward as one.

    We shouldn't forget the history of blood sacrifice, but it needs to be put to one side, realign and then move on together.

    Was that when unionists first threatened to arm themselves to the teeth and set up a violent militia?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,513 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Was that when unionists first threatened to arm themselves to the teeth and set up a violent militia?

    Not just a threat. they smuggled 10's of thousands of rifles into Ulster to arm themselves. It was only the outbreak of WW1 that stopped them kicking off.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    Not just a threat. they smuggled 10's of thousands of rifles into Ulster to arm themselves. It was only the outbreak of WW1 that stopped them kicking off.

    It shows what violent extremists existed amongst Irish unionists. That they abused the power handed to them in their 'protestant state' came as no surprise. The only surprise was that it took 50 years for full out war to commence.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭BarryD2


    Was that when unionists first threatened to arm themselves to the teeth and set up a violent militia?
    Not just a threat. they smuggled 10's of thousands of rifles into Ulster to arm themselves. It was only the outbreak of WW1 that stopped them kicking off.

    See what I mean? The standard 'Christian Brothers' view of Irish history. But sure carry on.

    The alternative view is that the unionists of NI have been here hundreds of years and are as Irish as the rest of us. It's up to us to find a way to integrate them and throwing insults don't work.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,513 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    BarryD2 wrote: »
    See what I mean? The standard 'Christian Brothers' view of Irish history. But sure carry on.

    Can you clarify what was incorrect in what i posted? Did they not form the UVF in 1913 and smuggle 10s of thousands of rifles into Ulster? If you are going to discuss you need to do it as a slightly higher level than that retort.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    BarryD2 wrote: »
    See what I mean? The standard 'Christian Brothers' view of Irish history. But sure carry on.

    What was said that was incorrect? Uncomfortable with the facts?


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Music Moderators, Politics Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 22,360 CMod ✭✭✭✭Dravokivich


    Can you clarify what was incorrect in what i posted? Did they not form the UVF in 1913 and smuggle 10s of thousands of rifles into Ulster? If you are going to discuss you need to do it as a slightly higher level than that retort.

    We've a long history of nationalist rebel forces, why are you surprised by the advent of unionist militias?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,513 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    We've a long history of nationalist rebel forces, why are you surprised by the advent of unionist militias?

    Where are you getting surprised from? I was simply stating facts.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭BarryD2


    What was said that was incorrect? Uncomfortable with the facts?

    It's not about the 'facts' per se. The agendas are set by which facts are emphasised, accepted and used to reinforce certain viewpoints. And other facts that are ignored. It's the classic glass half full, half empty type of problem. Self justification.

    You can approach the facts in various ways and mindsets - you can choose to use selected facts to reinforce division and negativity or you can choose other ways that find points of agreement and consensus.

    As regards the OP, I just see, hear and read very little that demonstrates that citizens of our Republic are prepared to follow the latter route. Maybe in time we will?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    BarryD2 wrote: »
    See what I mean? The standard 'Christian Brothers' view of Irish history. But sure carry on.

    The alternative view is that the unionists of NI have been here hundreds of years and are as Irish as the rest of us. It's up to us to find a way to integrate them and throwing insults don't work.

    Who's throwing insults? Did unionists not arm themselves in opposition to the Home Rule bill?


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Music Moderators, Politics Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 22,360 CMod ✭✭✭✭Dravokivich


    Where are you getting surprised from? I was simply stating facts.

    You are making it sound like the militia came first, as opposed to them being a response, to a known issue with nationalist rebellions.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    BarryD2 wrote: »
    It's not about the 'facts' per se. The agendas are set by which facts are emphasised, accepted and used to reinforce certain viewpoints. And other facts that are ignored. It's the classic glass half full, half empty type of problem. Self justification.

    You can approach the facts in various ways and mindsets - you can choose to use selected facts to reinforce division and negativity or you can choose other ways that find points of agreement and consensus.

    As regards the OP, I just see, hear and read very little that demonstrates that citizens of our Republic are prepared to follow the latter route.

    How is aiming to recruit 100,000 men to violently oppose something amount to finding points of agreement and consensus?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,513 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    You are making it sound like the militia came first, as opposed to them being a response, to a known issue with nationalist rebellions.

    As a response to home rule the Ulster Volunteer Force did come first. They mobilised before the Irish Volunteers in the south.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,055 ✭✭✭JohnnyFlash


    I’d agree with rehousing to Rockall all the people who spends their days tediously arguing and multi-quoting about hypotheticals relating to Norn Iron and the national question.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    You are making it sound like the militia came first, as opposed to them being a response, to a known issue with nationalist rebellions.

    It did come first! The militia was formed to oppose the Home Rule bill, there was no nationalist rebellion at that time or any time in the decades preceding it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,003 ✭✭✭Eggs For Dinner


    If there was a vote on it does the south of Ireland get to vote? How could the vote lose if that was the case.

    Because many, like myself, would not get involved in the debate one way or the other and quietly go to the polling station to keep things the way they are. Northern prejudices will never be solved and I don't want that poison down here


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,643 ✭✭✭✭Mr. CooL ICE


    Mod: This thread has been closed in After Hours and moved to the Politics Cafe as the topic is more suited for discussion in the PC.

    Please bear with the mods as they review the thread and decide whether to reopen it or keep it closed; it may not be gotten to immediately.

    Please also have a look at the Politics Cafe charter before posting


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Reopened


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭BarryD2


    It did come first! The militia was formed to oppose the Home Rule bill, there was no nationalist rebellion at that time or any time in the decades preceding it.

    Depends on how you define rebellion. There was an inexorable and necessary series of land reforms in the decades preceding. The Land League and withholding of rents was a rebellion, a relatively peaceful one that brought a good many of the landed estates to financial ruin. All part of a steady march towards Home Rule.
    Because many, like myself, would not get involved in the debate one way or the other and quietly go to the polling station to keep things the way they are. Northern prejudices will never be solved and I don't want that poison down here

    Inclined to agree but I think that poison can be diluted and removed if there was sufficient will. I think you're right though regarding any sort of vote in the Republic in our times, definitely not a given here that we'd accept the six counties. Would need a lot of debate north & south and broad agreement.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    20-30 years
    One of the most read stories on The Irish Times website at the moment is this:

    New light shed on prospect of Catholic majority in North
    Underpinning this is “a clear statistical trend towards a change in the religious minority-majority structure” of Northern Ireland and the “measurable trend towards a Catholic majority”.

    ‘Majority rule’
    In this context, the 2011 census was a “demographic watershed”. For the first time, the proportion of the population declaring themselves as Protestant or brought up Protestant fell below 50 per cent: “In a society characterised by debates over ‘majority rule’, where consent by a majority underpins the legitimacy of the state, the absence of a religious majority is an important symbolic marker,” the report states.

    There are other changes: only two of the North’s six counties, Antrim and Down, now have “significant Protestant majorities”, and only one – Lisburn – of its five official cities.

    “Within a decade, Belfast will almost certainly have a Catholic majority,” it states; in effect, a majority Protestant Northern Ireland “is now restricted to the suburban area surrounding Belfast.”

    This trend away from a Protestant majority “is likely to continue”. The main drivers of change are differing birth and death rates between the two communities, the effect of migration, and loss of affiliation, which is more pronounced in urban areas and in the east of Northern Ireland....

    Both Queen’s and Ulster University have a majority of students from a Catholic background; conversely, 63 per cent of students who study in Britain do not return to Northern Ireland, and the report cites other studies which have suggested their numbers are disproportionately Protestant.... “Catholic communities that are younger and poorer may experience restrictions on space and/or availability of resources . . . older Protestant communities, which are losing residents, may experience a sense of community decline, dereliction and abandonment.”

    The 'loss of affiliation' in urban areas is an interesting observation. I can see a definite loss of tradition and its enormous cultural repository in moving to large urban areas, but I'm not quite sure this translates into a loss of affiliation in political terms.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    10-15 years
    One of the most read stories on The Irish Times website at the moment is this:

    New light shed on prospect of Catholic majority in North



    The 'loss of affiliation' in urban areas is an interesting observation. I can see a definite loss of tradition and its enormous cultural repository in moving to large urban areas, but I'm not quite sure this translates into a loss of affiliation in political terms.

    Would the absent NI residents who have perhaps remained on mainland Britain still be able to vote in a UI referendum and what about people who have Irish citizenship through birth?It would be interesting to see if they would be eligible to vote in the Irish referendum-their numbers are growing I understand.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Poll makes the assumption that people in the Republic want this


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