Rugby World Cup 2019 Hagibis Projected Path

un5byh7sqpd2x0 · 10-10-2019 8:18pm

stephen_n wrote: »

What if there is a typhoon for the final? Are we going to have a shared World Cup?

The tournament rules are different for the knock out stages.

martingriff · 10-10-2019 9:13pm

stephen_n wrote: »

What if there is a typhoon for the final? Are we going to have a shared World Cup?

From knock out stages it is cancelled for 24 to 48 hours

martingriff · 10-10-2019 9:16pm

Weepsie wrote: »

Remember this is a country which in the wake of massive natural disasters has enabled an set up emergency accommodation in a matter of hours. I don't think moving hordes of rugby fans would be that difficult if they had planned for it.

Like, it couldn't be done here, but if there's anywhere it could be done, it's there.

Postponement of all games for 24 hours is surely fairer all around, or why not have brought some of the games forward for the teams which have had at least 5/6 days off.

Cancelling them outright changes so much it's just creating any number of unfair things

Off all the game it does not change who would qualify however if the Scotland Japan game is cancelled then the fun will start as Scotland would be out. It would have had to add 2 weeks on the World Cup maybe they hoped it be okay

schmoo2k · 11-10-2019 7:52am

But the simple fact is that its too late to make changes to the rules...
The only concession I could see happening is that Scotland and Japan play as scheduled, but behind closed doors to the public (assuming its deemed unsafe for the punters to attend).

enda1 · 11-10-2019 10:52am

martingriff wrote: »

Off all the game it does not change who would qualify however if the Scotland Japan game is cancelled then the fun will start as Scotland would be out. It would have had to add 2 weeks on the World Cup maybe they hoped it be okay

Italy lost their chance to qualify too

vetinari · 11-10-2019 2:58pm

Yeah, it's honestly baffling to see so many posters defending world rugby on this.
To think figuring out where to play a closed door game somewhere in Japan that's out of the typhoon path with a few days notice is some logistical impossibility.

You're talking about having to move say 100 people somewhere.
To put it in Irish terms, if the IRFU couldn't move a rugby game say from the Aviva to the Sportsground in Galway with 3 days notice, there would be uproar. All the comments would be about how inept the IRFU are.
Same from any of the other countries, you think England could arrange for a game to be played in Newcastle with 2 days notice?

Eod100 · 11-10-2019 3:07pm

vetinari wrote: »

Yeah, it's honestly baffling to see so many posters defending world rugby on this.
To think figuring out where to play a closed door game somewhere in Japan that's out of the typhoon path with a few days notice is some logistical impossibility.

You're talking about having to move say 100 people somewhere.
To put it in Irish terms, if the IRFU couldn't move a rugby game say from the Aviva to the Sportsground in Galway with 3 days notice, there would be uproar. All the comments would be about how inept the IRFU are.
Same from any of the other countries, you think England could arrange for a game to be played in Newcastle with 2 days notice?

Hardly a fair comparison though. All of 200km distance between Dublin and Galway. The diameter of strongest part of typhoon is 1,400km. 30,000 houses were knocked down with Typhoon Faxai and this is expected to be much worse. You could argue about potentially postponing games but moving them outright with background of a typhoon swiftly approaching isn't an easy task.

sydthebeat · 11-10-2019 3:09pm

the biggest take away from this is that they simply had no contingency for anything....

and instead determined a "its played as scheduled or its cancelled" policy would be there stance.

simply not good enough

sydthebeat · 11-10-2019 3:11pm

Eod100 wrote: »

Hardly a fair comparison though. All of 200km distance between Dublin and Galway. The diameter of strongest part of typhoon is 1,400km. 30,000 houses were knocked down with Typhoon Faxai and this is expected to be much worse. You could argue about potentially postponing games but moving them outright with background of a typhoon swiftly approaching isn't an easy task.

??

they know exactly when the typoon is going to hit, they cancelled 3 days out from that.. and they would be moving those people to areas where the typhoon isnt due to cause severe damage.

how is that a less preferable option than cancelling the game sand leaving the teams where they are?

Eod100 · 11-10-2019 3:15pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

the biggest take away from this is that they simply had no contingency for anything....

and instead determined a "its played as scheduled or its cancelled" policy would be there stance.

simply not good enough

I think it would have been very difficult to have plans for during pool stages without having knock-on impact on other games so maybe they took risk that typhoon wouldn't directly impact games or if it did it would affect games during pool and they could fall back on those rules and point to impact it would have on other pool games. Because it's happened at last game of pools, it probably becomes more noticeable and criticised naturally.

Plan for knockout's seems to play a cancelled game within a day or 2 but obviously timeframe between matches would have been eaten into. Guess either bringing pool games forward to today or postponing until Sunday or Monday wasn't deemed possible.

sydthebeat · 11-10-2019 3:20pm

Eod100 wrote: »

Guess either bringing pool games forward to today or postponing until Sunday or Monday wasn't deemed possible.

not sure why this was deemed less acceptable than cancellations though.

Eod100 · 11-10-2019 3:21pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

??

they know exactly when the typoon is going to hit, they cancelled 3 days out from that.. and they would be moving those people to areas where the typhoon isnt due to cause severe damage.

how is that a less preferable option than cancelling the game sand leaving the teams where they are?

People have been advised to stay indoors and have food and drink supply for 3 days. Obviously not possible to evacuate affected cities so maybe priority from WR was to leave teams where they were. Maybe they didn't want the even slight risk of a few people of the 30 or 40 thousand fans trying to get to different location during a typhoon even if games were played behind closed doors. I'm not saying I know what WR were thinking, just speculating on what their motivations may have been.

Eod100 · 11-10-2019 3:22pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

not sure why this was deemed less acceptable than cancellations though.

They're falling back on the rules it seems. Whether there could or should have been more flexibility or they looked into other plans and realised wasn't possible and so relied on rules, is another issue. Would be good to hear from horse's mouth so to speak.

sydthebeat · 11-10-2019 3:26pm

Eod100 wrote: »

People have been advised to stay indoors and have food and drink supply for 3 days. Obviously not possible to evacuate affected cities so maybe priority from WR was to leave teams where they were. Maybe they didn't want the even slight risk of a few people of the 30 or 40 thousand fans trying to get to different location during a typhoon even if games were played behind closed doors. I'm not saying I know what WR were thinking, just speculating on what their motivations may have been.

no one at all is suggesting a mass movement of 30 - 40 thousand people?

i seriously cannot understand how that is being used as some excuse for the cancellations.

The priority simply should have been player and staff safety first, games getting played second....

and everything like fans attending, TV rights etc a distant third.

Eod100 · 11-10-2019 3:29pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

no one at all is suggesting a mass movement of 30 - 40 thousand people?

i seriously cannot understand how that is being used as some excuse for the cancellations.

The priority simply should have been player and staff safety first, games getting played second....

and everything like fans attending, TV rights etc a distant third.

My post clearly said ''Maybe they didn't want the even slight risk of a few people of the 30 or 40 thousand fans trying to get to different location during a typhoon even if games were played behind closed doors.'' You can't account for people's actions, even if a handful tried to make their way to games and were injured or worse, the reaction would immediately swing the other way. It's not exaggerating to say this could cause serious injuries or death.

sydthebeat · 11-10-2019 3:31pm

Eod100 wrote: »

..... Would be good to hear from horse's mouth so to speak.

yes absolutely, though they have already spun out the "thems the rules" line from todays presser.

However the scots seem to think there is a valid argument for "force majeure" clauses to be enacted to do everything possible to have the games played.

im sure the WR spin doctors are working furiously to have a big long statement about "what was not possible" ready for when this all blows over, if you pardon the pun.

Anyway... we're not going to solve anything here

:D just a pity about the effect on the competition.

salmocab · 11-10-2019 3:32pm

Eod100 wrote: »

They're falling back on the rules it seems. Whether there could or should have been more flexibility or they looked into other plans and realised wasn't possible and so relied on rules, is another issue. Would be good to hear from horse's mouth so to speak.

I doubt anyone really thinks that in the last 48 hours they should have looked at changing the rules. They had years to come up with contingency plans for their own flagship event and all they came up with is a nil all draw. It’s poor planning and whilst I don’t buy into the asterisk thing people have said will be beside the eventual winners name it will be remembered as a mess of a tournament.

sydthebeat · 11-10-2019 3:32pm

Eod100 wrote: »

My post clearly said ''Maybe they didn't want the even slight risk of a few people of the 30 or 40 thousand fans trying to get to different location during a typhoon even if games were played behind closed doors.'' You can't account for people's actions, even if a handful tried to make their way to games and were injured or worse, the reaction would immediately swing the other way. It's not exaggerating to say this could cause serious injuries or death.

during a typhoon???

the cities affected are due to be closed down, so no one will be moving during the typhoon

Eod100 · 11-10-2019 3:39pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

during a typhoon???

the cities affected are due to be closed down, so no one will be moving during the typhoon

Ara, I dunno tbh. Just trying to see it from their pov. Like ya say won't solve it here. I think once Japan Scotland game goes ahead without incident they will save some face

sydthebeat · 11-10-2019 3:40pm

Eod100 wrote: »

Ara, I dunno tbh. Just trying to see it from their pov. Like ya say won't solve it here. I think once Japan Scotland game goes ahead without incident they will save some face

heres hoping !!

vetinari · 11-10-2019 3:42pm

Eod100 wrote: »

Hardly a fair comparison though. All of 200km distance between Dublin and Galway. The diameter of strongest part of typhoon is 1,400km. 30,000 houses were knocked down with Typhoon Faxai and this is expected to be much worse. You could argue about potentially postponing games but moving them outright with background of a typhoon swiftly approaching isn't an easy task.

England have headed to a training camp in Miyazaki since the game is called off. Clearly they feel comfortable traveling there. Why not play the game there? This is really not that complicated. You just need players, officials and a camera crew. Odds are England will play a training game over the weekend that has all those things while in Miyazaki.

Podge_irl · 11-10-2019 3:44pm

You get the general sense that WR would only have countenanced a re-location if it was a "full" relocation with fans etc. No doubt there would have been broadcasting and sponsor issues to work out, but simply not playing the games doesn't seem like much of a solution.

vetinari · 11-10-2019 5:19pm

That's exactly it. They had no closed door contingency option and to make it worse couldn't even organize it at short notice.
Shambolic organizing. Puts a dampener on the entire world cup.

salmocab · 11-10-2019 5:35pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

You get the general sense that WR would only have countenanced a re-location if it was a "full" relocation with fans etc. No doubt there would have been broadcasting and sponsor issues to work out, but simply not playing the games doesn't seem like much of a solution.

This is it, they basically had no contingency beyond a nil all draw and let’s hope for the best

andymx11 · 11-10-2019 8:22pm

“Typhoon showing weakening. Eye gone but still a lot of destructive winds and rain in it. I still think it wont be half as bad as made out. Maybe 100mm of rain which Newport in Ireland survived about a year ago in 24 hours. Winds probably decreasing quickly after initially 75 knots on landfall”

Above is from the weather forum - Jesus those lads are knowledgable..

Sonny noggs · 11-10-2019 8:26pm

Another damp squib?

joseywhales · 11-10-2019 8:39pm

It is not a solution, it's the definition of a failure. I have had bcp testing in every job I have ever had, all of our software works even in the event of level 3 disasters in 3 of 4 global locations, the world would literally have to end before the software would crash. I imagine it's similar in all industries, how the hell did they have no contingency here for such a huge event?

lawrencesummers · 12-10-2019 7:38am

All trains and flights in tokyo cancelled.
They expect 1m of rain in parts. Yea 1 meter. Lorenzo was predicted to bring 5cm of rain.
Already reports of a casualty and injuries
Towns have been evacuated
700 homes without power.

The idea these games should have been played pays no respect to the magnitude of the weather that is affecting the country.

Im in Fukouka and the Wind that has been around today, miles from the cyclone will make a complete mess of the game later if it doesnt die down.

Hurrache · 12-10-2019 8:12am

lawrencesummers wrote: »

The idea these games should have been played pays no respect to the magnitude of the weather that is affecting the country.
.

Nobody said the games should be played in those conditions.

And having respect for the typhoon and being critical of World Rugby for their lack of planning aren't mutually exclusive.

Former Former · 12-10-2019 8:25am

Sonny noggs wrote: »

Another damp squib?

NHK (Japan public broadcaster) are describing it as a once in several decades event.

caff · 12-10-2019 8:34am

vetinari wrote: »

That's exactly it. They had no closed door contingency option and to make it worse couldn't even organize it at short notice.
Shambolic organizing. Puts a dampener on the entire world cup.

I think the other side is most volunteers staff and security will be busy with managing typhoon response and could probably care less about about the match and more about trying to help people out who are been evacuated from their homes.

caff · 12-10-2019 8:35am

Sonny noggs wrote: »

Another damp squib?

Confirmed death landslides flooding houses demolished and it hasn't even hit land yet.

PokeHerKing · 12-10-2019 8:46am

Former Former wrote: »

NHK (Japan public broadcaster) are describing it as a once in several decades event.

Faxai hit Tokyo only last month and was very similar strength to what Hagibis will be. So the above is hyperbole, throw in western media's interest because of the rugby and the circus will be in full flight.

Eod100 · 12-10-2019 8:56am

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Faxai hit Tokyo only last month and was very similar strength to what Hagibis will be. So the above is hyperbole, throw in western media's interest because of the rugby and the circus will be in full flight.

It hasn't even hit landfall yet and its mean to be much stranger than Hagibis. Faxai killed several people in process and floored 30,000 homes in Tokyo alone so not sure how you can try ri dismiss it as hyperbole tbh

PokeHerKing · 12-10-2019 9:04am

Eod100 wrote: »

It hasn't even hit landfall yet and its mean to be much stranger than Hagibis. Faxai killed several people in process and floored 30,000 homes in Tokyo alone so not sure how you can try ri dismiss it as hyperbole tbh

Once in several decades is the hyperbole, considering it literally only happened last month.

I never downplayed the potential impact of the storm, its going to cause serious damage but the media claiming its the end of the earth is hyperbole. Japan and Tokyo are well used to this kind of weather.

Sabre0001 · 12-10-2019 9:21am

https://www.windy.com/?34.259,137.395,6

The size of this thing!

Former Former · 12-10-2019 9:25am

Sabre0001 wrote: »

https://www.windy.com/?34.259,137.395,6

The size of this thing!

No no, it's all a media invention

easypazz · 12-10-2019 9:25am

lawrencesummers wrote: »

All trains and flights in tokyo cancelled.
They expect 1m of rain in parts. Yea 1 meter. Lorenzo was predicted to bring 5cm of rain.
Already reports of a casualty and injuries
Towns have been evacuated
700 homes without power.

The idea these games should have been played pays no respect to the magnitude of the weather that is affecting the country.

Im in Fukouka and the Wind that has been around today, miles from the cyclone will make a complete mess of the game later if it doesnt die down.

Nobody suggested games be played. The suggestion is either postpone or move them.

Contingency plans should have been in place.

Bridge93 · 12-10-2019 10:07am

Why do people keep misinterpreting what people are saying about this mess? Do they not read what’s said or are they deliberately obtuse to paint a picture that people don’t care about what’s happening to the people of japan?

Literally nobody has said play the games in the middle of a ****ing typhoon. No one at all.

FixdePitchmark · 12-10-2019 10:32am

Clearly the contract and concept of no rearranged games was a massive error of judgement by all.

It won't be in rules again I'd suggest.

Not a chance in hell that this would happen in most other sports and for once rugby has shown a bit of lack of experience in world sport.

Imagine telling two soccer teams in a world cup, the match was 0-0.
For all the stick soccer gets from an organisational perspective, that would be comical, wouldn't happen.

The communication around this has been shocking, the lack of an ability to reach agreement or adjust has been embarrassing.

The first round of the tournament is a joke, this makes it worse.

Probably a full review of tournament needed.

Eod100 · 12-10-2019 10:33am

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Once in several decades is the hyperbole, considering it literally only happened last month.

I never downplayed the potential impact of the storm, its going to cause serious damage but the media claiming its the end of the earth is hyperbole. Japan and Tokyo are well used to this kind of weather.

That's assuming both typhoons are the same size which they're clearly not. Nobody claimed it to be the end of the earth. This is just getting silly now

no.8 · 12-10-2019 10:42am

PokeHerKing wrote:

Faxai hit Tokyo only last month and was very similar strength to what Hagibis will be. So the above is hyperbole, throw in western media's interest because of the rugby and the circus will be in full flight.

Wow a real life Marty McFly

padser · 12-10-2019 10:53am

Eod100 wrote: »

My post clearly said ''Maybe they didn't want the even slight risk of a few people of the 30 or 40 thousand fans trying to get to different location during a typhoon even if games were played behind closed doors.'' You can't account for people's actions, even if a handful tried to make their way to games and were injured or worse, the reaction would immediately swing the other way. It's not exaggerating to say this could cause serious injuries or death.

To be fair, like pretty much every other objection raised - that's easily fixable with multiple solutions

Dont confirm the actual venue.

Or even, put out reports the game is called off while moving the teams and then announce it will be played a couple of hours before it kicks off

Or, charter a plane a few days before the windy weather hits and fly the two teams to another country.

I honestly havnt seen a single argument advanced which genuinely holds up which prevents games being moved (moving fans absolutely, moving 100 people to a pitch away from the bad weather hits - doable)

PokeHerKing · 12-10-2019 10:56am

Eod100 wrote: »

That's assuming both typhoons are the same size which they're clearly not. Nobody claimed it to be the end of the earth. This is just getting silly now

Both are making landfall as high end cat 1s. Powerful and dangersous with landslides/flooding as usual the major concern.

Just because posters on here and western media have taken an interest in this 1 typhoon because of the rugby world Cup does not automatically make it a once in a century event.

Bridge93 · 12-10-2019 11:04am

It’s the strongest in 60 years to make landfall in japan. Unless the media etc are openly lying?

guapos · 12-10-2019 11:08am

Itv supporting World rugby.do they not know what size Japan is,they could have moved games to other side of the country

PokeHerKing · 12-10-2019 11:12am

Bridge93 wrote: »

It’s the strongest in 60 years to make landfall in japan. Unless the media etc are openly lying?

Lying or lazy, take your pick. It's currently expected to be about 80kts at landfall. So no, definitely not the strongest.

I'm in no way trying to make light of this situation for anyone in the path of this storm. Homes will be destroyed people are unfortunately going to die but that happens every year. The only difference currently is the Rugby world Cup begin played in its path.

irishbucsfan · 12-10-2019 11:23am

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Lying or lazy, take your pick. It's currently expected to be about 80kts at landfall. So no, definitely not the strongest.

I'm in no way trying to make light of this situation for anyone in the path of this storm. Homes will be destroyed people are unfortunately going to die but that happens every year. The only difference currently is the Rugby world Cup begin played in its path.

What's the inside track you have that makes you more knowledgeable about this than the Japanese Meteorological Agency? Have you got a weather app on your phone or something?

PokeHerKing · 12-10-2019 11:37am

irishbucsfan wrote: »

What's the inside track you have that makes you more knowledgeable about this than the Japanese Meteorological Agency? Have you got a weather app on your phone or something?

I'm taking my info from JMA. Most people here are taking theirs from media.

irishbucsfan · 12-10-2019 11:44am

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I'm taking my info from JMA. Most people here are taking theirs from media.

What you're saying is very different to what they're saying:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20191011_58/

Strongest typhoon to make landfall in recorded history in terms of pressure as well now. Also coupled with the fact that it's a full moon so water levels are naturally higher, leading to more flooding and water damage.

This did not "happen last month", as you said earlier. It's all well and good saying western media are hyping it up or taking an interest because of the F1 and world cup, but watch Japanese media and you'll see what JMA are saying directly.

Rugby World Cup 2019 Hagibis Projected Path

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