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Potential for wind and snow (NW) 4th, 5th December - DISCUSSION ONLY

135

Comments

  • #102
    fr wishy washy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 882 ✭✭✭fr wishy washy


    Just bought a snow shovel in Aldi.


  • #103
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    fr wishy washy wrote: »
    Just bought a snow shovel in Aldi.

    Officially jinxed - you have single handedly ensured it won't snow this winter!!!


  • #104
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    SNOW SNOW SNOW.

    Well folks the latest GFS is out and we're now at a reliable timeframe for the charts. These are only 72 hours out. -4 uppers widespread over ireland going to -5 in midlands/ west and -6 up in the north!

    snow72h.png

    Get your shovels, get your de-icer and get your sledges!

    snowonly72.png

    WINTER IS COMING HERE!


  • #105
    amacachi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Officially jinxed - you have single handedly ensured it won't snow this winter!!!

    I kept the cold away by buying some electric heaters a few weeks ago. Thought they'd only affect inside the house, how wrong I was.


  • #106
    ophelia75
    Registered Users Posts: 22 ✭ophelia75


    Hi there!
    have been hovering around this site for a good while now and have decided to join in on the conversation. I'm really interested in all things weather especially around the winter time when there is potential for exciting weather. Just been reading m.t cranium's weather outlook for next week and he mentioned something about a possible epic storm heading this direction- said the 00z gfs run shows this. Just wondering what the rest of you make of this. Iknow it is probably too early to tell anyway but maybe the model watchers among you can add to this conversation. Would be interesting development in up to now pretty benign season weather wise!:D


  • #107
    fr wishy washy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 882 ✭✭✭fr wishy washy


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    SNOW SNOW SNOW.

    Well folks the latest GFS is out and we're now at a reliable timeframe for the charts. These are only 72 hours out. -4 uppers widespread over ireland going to -5 in midlands/ west and -6 up in the north!

    snow72h.png

    Get your shovels, get your de-icer and get your sledges!

    snowonly72.png

    WINTER IS COMING HERE!

    snow shovel check
    de icer check Got that on last weeks shopping trip
    sledges check Dusting them off from last year


  • #108
    only one
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    SNOW SNOW SNOW.

    Well folks the latest GFS is out and we're now at a reliable timeframe for the charts. These are only 72 hours out. -4 uppers widespread over ireland going to -5 in midlands/ west and -6 up in the north!

    snow72h.png

    Get your shovels, get your de-icer and get your sledges!

    snowonly72.png

    WINTER IS COMING HERE!
    What about us in the south east who don't see snow?


  • #109
    whiteandlight
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    Oh God much as I friggin loved the weather forum and the actual weather last winter I'm not sure I'm ready for the f5'ing again to see where/when/how much snow/ice/graupel is happening ...


  • #110
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    only one wrote: »
    What about us in the south east who don't see snow?

    And im afraid we wont see it for a while yet unless your on the top of a mountain, the best feed for us in the south east is a north easterly or an easterly blast which we will more than likely see come mid January or February you just have to be a bit patient:)


  • #111
    only one
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    only one wrote: »
    What about us in the south east who don't see snow?

    And im afraid we see it for a while yet unless your on the top of a mountain, the best feed for us in the south east is a north easterly or an easterly blast which we will more than likely see come mid January or February you just have to be a but patient:)
    Ok cheers for that. I'll try me best to be patient :)


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  • #112
    Derfil
    Closed Accounts Posts: 456 ✭✭Derfil


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    SNOW SNOW SNOW.

    Well folks the latest GFS is out and we're now at a reliable timeframe for the charts. These are only 72 hours out. -4 uppers widespread over ireland going to -5 in midlands/ west and -6 up in the north!

    snow72h.png

    Get your shovels, get your de-icer and get your sledges!

    snowonly72.png

    WINTER IS COMING HERE!

    Stooopppppp.... I wont be able to sleep with the excitement. Last year was legendary. And this forum just made it so much better:pac::pac::pac:


  • #113
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,341 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Musicmental85 wrote: »
    Oh God much as I friggin loved the weather forum and the actual weather last winter I'm not sure I'm ready for the f5'ing again to see where/when/how much snow/ice/graupe is happening ...

    Is it not easier to just look out your window.


  • #114
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    so is snow really coming ye? how much and how long will it last, will dublin be affected? please reply:)


  • #115
    whiteandlight
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Is it not easier to just look out your window.

    Oh that too obviously, had a well positioned lamppost! I worked 40 mins from my house tho and had a 3 hr drive to mayo to do on two occasions during the snow (one of them took 6.5hrs!!)


  • #116
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    My lampspost bulb has burnt out. I need to get it repaired quick. Who should I call?


  • #117
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Eirtricity Public lighting on 1850372772!! Ha!


  • #118
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Here's a GFS Gramet for Ballyhaise for Sunday night into Monday night, showing snow making it down to around 100 m early Monday, as -6 °C 850s are in place, and surface temperatures only make it to +1 °C.

    183401.png


  • #119
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    so is snow really coming ye? how much and how long will it last, will dublin be affected? please reply:)

    To answer that yes there is, the 18z wasn’t bad at all, Where will it snow? The west and northwest are more favoured and some higher locations in the midlands, Dublin more than likely won’t see much as an easterly would be more favoured, That’s going by tonight’s 18z Gfs run, that could all change with a shortwave being shot out of the states or Canada, as they say stay tuned:) You should move to the USA:) serious cold on the way


  • #120
    whitemocha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 135 ✭✭whitemocha


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    so is snow really coming ye? how much and how long will it last, will dublin be affected? please reply:)


    i beg of you not to start this please

    just keep an eye on here, you should know as well as anyone that your question is not answerable

    just wait and see please:)


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  • #121
    Eastcoastryan
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 197 ✭✭Eastcoastryan


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    To answer that yes there is, the 18z wasn’t bad at all, Where will it snow? The west and northwest are more favoured and some higher locations in the midlands, Dublin more than likely won’t see much as an easterly would be more favoured, That’s going by tonight’s 18z Gfs run, that could all change with a shortwave being shot out of the states or Canada, as they say stay tuned:) You should move to the USA:) serious cold on the way


    Sorry to be off topic but just noticed what you said about USA, are you talking short term? I'm heading over to New York in 10 days and would love to see some snow!!


  • #122
    ednwireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,452 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    so is snow really coming ye? how much and how long will it last, will dublin be affected? please reply:)

    i tempted to say 3-6ft in about 5 mins but i wont

    2.9 c up here at the moment though no snow

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



  • #123
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,587 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well, since this thread was started the prospects of strong winds have been pushed back into next week, but the cold is definitely going to become a factor and I would say that most of Connacht, Ulster and parts of north and west Leinster can expect a coating of snow at times especially later Sunday and Monday. There appear to be further opportunities developing later in the week.

    The chances for Dublin and most of the south and east (away from higher terrain) would appear to be slight but not zero, there could be some reports of snow but little if any accumulation in the situation depicted for Sunday and Monday.

    Meanwhile, the 18z GFS has shown some strong wind possibilities for mid-week and later in the week, which once again need to be taken with caution; the 18z GFS run has the reputation of being the "pub run" over on Net-weather, I'm not sure if that's because people find it when they get home from the pub, or because it looks like it just came from the pub.

    I always thought it might be the latter of those. Anyway, the long interval of mild weather (mid-Sept to almost end of Nov) seems to be over and we now are looking at a near- or slightly below-normal regime with variations taking temperatures well below normal at times.

    It does look like a pattern that could revert to very mild briefly at some point because of ebbs and flows in the jet stream, but also a pattern that could shift further south and open the floodgates to stronger winter setups.


  • #124
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Well, since this thread was started the prospects of strong winds have been pushed back into next week, but the cold is definitely going to become a factor and I would say that most of Connacht, Ulster and parts of north and west Leinster can expect a coating of snow at times especially later Sunday and Monday. There appear to be further opportunities developing later in the week.

    The chances for Dublin and most of the south and east (away from higher terrain) would appear to be slight but not zero, there could be some reports of snow but little if any accumulation in the situation depicted for Sunday and Monday.

    Meanwhile, the 18z GFS has shown some strong wind possibilities for mid-week and later in the week, which once again need to be taken with caution; the 18z GFS run has the reputation of being the "pub run" over on Net-weather, I'm not sure if that's because people find it when they get home from the pub, or because it looks like it just came from the pub.

    I always thought it might be the latter of those. Anyway, the long interval of mild weather (mid-Sept to almost end of Nov) seems to be over and we now are looking at a near- or slightly below-normal regime with variations taking temperatures well below normal at times.

    It does look like a pattern that could revert to very mild briefly at some point because of ebbs and flows in the jet stream, but also a pattern that could shift further south and open the floodgates to stronger winter setups.
    will cavan get snow


  • #125
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    will cavan get snow

    no everywhere else but caaavvvaaan


  • #126
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    will cavan get snow

    Please read his post before asking that question. If everybody comes on asking will they get snow in their location then things will become unreadable.

    He said "I would say that most of Connacht, Ulster and parts of north and west Leinster can expect a coating of snow at times especially later Sunday and Monday. There appear to be further opportunities developing later in the week." That pretty much answers your question.


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  • #127
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Eastcoastryan wrote: »
    Sorry to be off topic but just noticed what you said about USA, are you talking short term? I'm heading over to New York in 10 days and would love to see some snow!!

    Mt will keep you updated http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971&page=154


  • #128
    konman
    Registered Users Posts: 234 ✭✭konman


    will it snow here, will it snow there, will it snow anywhere, will it snow everywhere. folks read the threads and look at the model runs and maybe learn something in the process.
    rant over sorry.


  • #129
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    18Z GFS for 06Z Monday morning.

    183410.gif


  • #130
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    will cavan get snow

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_gst-Ryh3g


  • #131
    smallwonder
    Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭smallwonder


    Su Campu wrote: »
    18Z GFS for 06Z Monday morning.

    183410.gif

    Is that the pub run MT referred to? If so let me get myself a hot whiskey and pull up by the open fire cos it looks like I'll be having a whitey:D


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  • #132
    NIALL D
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    Su Campu wrote: »
    18Z GFS for 06Z Monday morning.

    183410.gif

    how do i find out what all those symbols mean that are on the chart ^^ grays and greens etc

    thanks ;)


  • #133
    Trogdor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    NIALL D wrote: »
    how do i find out what all those symbols mean that are on the chart ^^ grays and greens etc

    thanks ;)

    This should explain all :)
    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rart&HH=6&INFO=1&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0


  • #134
    Dotsie~tmp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭Dotsie~tmp


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Models are increasingly pointing to the likely development of a very windy and cold period this weekend. Friday will see the gradual ramping up of a west to northwest wind in the 30-50 mph range but it will remain mild enough to prevent snow except perhaps on summits.

    By Saturday, the parent low in the region near the Faeroes deepens further and colder air gradually works into the circulation as winds increase further to about 40-60 mph from the west-northwest. The snow line could come down in elevation especially across Donegal, Mayo and other parts of the north and west, to about 300m.

    Then by Sunday further development takes place with the low transferring a deep centre southeast across Scotland into the North Sea. This will lead to severe gales in many parts of Ireland and Britain, and it will be cold enough for mixed wintry showers (at sea level, temps will be 3-5 C, at 300m near freezing) of hail and snow -- there could be some heavy snow amounts in northwest facing coastal regions similar to last December's Greenland express although it won't be quite as sustained or intense. As usual in these situations, the effects will be less dramatic towards the east and south but anyone planning to travel to the UK might want to consider the possibility of disruptions to road and air travel due to wind and local snowfalls. It looks particularly bad on the 18z GFS run for Yorkshire and East Anglia with a hurricane force storm in the North Sea. Winds over Ireland are likely to peak at around 50-70 mph given the model run and reasonable subjective tweaking of the output based on second-order factors (such as research energy peaks and sea surface temperatures).

    This outlook may be revised rather substantially depending on the output of the more reliable 00z model runs. However, it has been "in the works" for several days and fits the developing global circulation which is seeing widespread intensification of zonal flow combined with an expanding arctic circulation of unusual intensity for this stage of the season.

    This trend looks likely to reload around the 10th to 12th when more severe gales may develop at the full moon, with associated storm surge potential (just as a long-distance heads up).

    I cant stand this outrageous theft any longer. This so called MT Cranium person has stolen my forecast almost word for word from my earlier post.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056342618

    Mods? anyone?


  • #135
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    I would say that most of Connacht, Ulster and parts of north and west Leinster can expect a coating of snow at times especially later Sunday and Monday.

    No mention of Munster in your forecast MT?

    i-just-feel-so-irrelephant.png

    :pac:


  • #136
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    No mention of Munster in your forecast MT?

    i-just-feel-so-irrelephant.png

    :pac:

    Sure it nearly a given nothing decent will happen down that neck of the woods :pac::pac::pac:


  • #137
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    GFS 0Z run looking interesting for some Sunday evening and Monday.

    183420.png
    183422.png
    183421.png


  • #138
    justy182
    Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭justy182


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    GFS 0Z run looking interesting for some Sunday evening and Monday.

    183420.png
    183422.png
    183421.png

    Just wondering about the size of this event. Accumulation amounts havent been mentioned as yet. Could anyone offer an opinion or maybe it's too soon for that or none worthwhile?


  • #139
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    Finally something of interest to get our teeth into. I don't expect any snow in Waterford but i'm jumping on the first Roller Coaster of the Winter :) All aboard

    It will skip us as usual by that top chart its stopping just as it hits waterfords border :) typical


  • #140
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    jo06555 wrote: »
    It will skip us as usual by that top chart its stopping just as it hits waterfords border :) typical

    I think amounts in general will be small. Mainly a high ground dusting in the North and West. I have a high confidence of nothing Wintry falling in Waterford. Even MT latest forecast is suggesting nothing at sea level anywhere.


  • #141
    justy182
    Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭justy182


    Yes. It seems a bit of a roll back on previous statements. Just seems now to be just a higher terrain event if even that.


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  • #142
    dsmythy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,520 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    justy182 wrote: »
    Just wondering about the size of this event. Accumulation amounts havent been mentioned as yet. Could anyone offer an opinion or maybe it's too soon for that or none worthwhile?

    Looks like north-western hills will be the only ones to see any sort of snow accumulation. Maybe the odd flurry at sea level but that wet snow that disappears pretty quick after it has fallen. I'd say sleet shows will be the norm across the northwest/north and on hills further south.


  • #143
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Any snowfall likely to occur only above 300m or so in west Munster, Ulster, north Leinster and Connacht. The snowline may fall to lower levels in Donegal, Derry, Tyrone, Sligo and Fermanagh at times on Sunday eve through early Monday morn.


  • #144
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Postman from Donegal was just on 2 fm and it's not looking good for a bad winter, lock it up admin lol


  • #145
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Postman from Donegal was just on 2 fm and it's not looking good for a bad winter, lock it up admin lol

    Garden centres open their doors, lay on extra staff and longer opening hours to facilitate the rush. :)


  • #146
    Wine Goddess
    Registered Users Posts: 551 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    Lucreto wrote: »
    My lampspost bulb has burnt out. I need to get it repaired quick. Who should I call?


    Ghostbusters..........:pac::pac::pac:

    (Just as useful.....)


  • #147
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Oscar Bravo wrote: »
    Eirtricity Public lighting on 1850372772!! Ha!

    Don't hold your breath, I called them 3 months ago and still nothing done.


  • #148
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    redsteveireland wrote: »
    Don't hold your breath, I called them 3 months ago and still nothing done.


    Called them and now it is fixed:D


  • #149
    megatron989
    Registered Users Posts: 206 ✭✭megatron989


    Hope they didn't put one of those blue light bulbs in it, u stare at that thing long enough looking for snow and your likely gonna go blind!


  • #150
    rilz
    Registered Users Posts: 194 ✭✭rilz


    Probably snow on higher ground - sleet at lower levels - But at least the cold is now pushing in:pac:


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  • #151
    tylercollins
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Northern Ireland Weather on facebook just posted this...
    eather Watch Issued 02/12/2011. Valid from 04/12/2011 - Heavy snow showers are expected during Sunday afternoon and evening, Accumulations of up to 5 cm are possible to low levels and up to 10 cm or more on higher ground. Ice is likely to form on untreated roads & paths. This may lead to some travel disruption.

    Please note this watch may be subject to changes & will be updated throughout the weekend.

    Going by reading the posts on here, I'm thinking this person has slightly exagerated their forecast?


This discussion has been closed.
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