Major Hurricane Irma

BumperD · 06-09-2017 4:01pm

skyheinz wrote: »

Any idea what we should expect if we have a hotel within Disney and power (they assured us that they don't lose power, have underground power lines and generators).

If we fly in tomorrow and out in 7 days, is it reasonable to expect just a day or two in the hotel room without being able to go out.
The only reason I would cancel is safety - that is what I am trying to figure out.

Any feedback from those who are familiar with sitting these out?
Considering the location of Disney (seems I can't post a link as a new user), I don't understand what the storm is currently expected to be like by the time it gets there (if it does).

There are no safety concerns for you if you stay indoors. If it makes a direct hit, there will be discomfort but your on mailland not on an island with no supplies.

With disruption, and I presume children with you, you'll have some stresses so that's your decision if you are happy to manage through that.

BumperD · 06-09-2017 4:03pm

I was due to transit through Miami Saturday, for business, but I've re routed as I don't want to be stuck up there for a few days and don't want the hassle

skyheinz · 06-09-2017 4:05pm

Looking at the latest updates, it would put it at Cat3 @ about 120MPH in advance of Orlando if it hit.

Unfortunately, I'm new and can't post link. If you google "Hurricane Irma: Current forecast track, spaghetti models, satellite" its the result from wtsp.

josip · 06-09-2017 4:12pm

St Maarten does look like it got well hit.
https://twitter.com/Bondtehond

traco · 06-09-2017 4:31pm

NHC Update from weather channel at 1100 US time, 1600 Irish time

Larbre34 · 06-09-2017 5:02pm

I must say I'm watching this one closely as I have family on the western edge of Tampa Bay and they often mention how they felt they were due a big one as they have been luckily bypassed by the damaging hurricanes of the past decade. They do live in a water side house on the inter-coastal near Indian Shores so any sort of hit could devastate their area.

It does look like the track is bearing more to the east of Florida so fingers crossed it will avoid them for the most part, and more importantly de-power in the process so that no part of the state is devastated. Not looking good for Trump's weekend getaway though!

star gazer · 06-09-2017 5:26pm

It could skirt close to the Florida East coast like Matthew did but it would be unwise to let that make it seem less of a threat, it could still make devastating landfall with a small change in factors determining its path so it's still too early to depend on one forecast path. Each Hurricane is different and the destructive power being unleashed is an enormous threat and having an enormous impact on Caribbean islands along its path.

NHC Update. Hurricane Irma is about 200km East of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving at 26km/h WNW, Minimum Pressure 922mb with max wind speed 295km/h, 185mph. It is a Category five Hurricane. Hurricane force winds out to 85km and tropical storm force winds out to 295km (North East strongest). The storm surge (to the North and near North of the centre) combined with the rainfall will cause dangerous heavy flooding Advisory 30
Irma is headed to the Virgin islands and close to the North coast of Puerto Rico.

harr · 06-09-2017 5:35pm

star gazer wrote: »

It could skirt close to the Florida East coast like Matthew did but it would be unwise to let that make it seem less of a threat, it could still make devastating landfall with a small change in factors determining its path so it's still too early to depend on one forecast path. Each Hurricane is different and the destructive power being unleashed is an enormous threat and having an enormous impact on Caribbean islands along its path.

NHC Update. Hurricane Irma is about 200km East of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving at 26km/h WNW, Minimum Pressure 922mb with max wind speed 295km/h, 185mph. It is a Category five Hurricane. Hurricane force winds out to 85km and tropical storm force winds out to 295km (North East strongest). The storm surge (to the North and near North of the centre) combined with the rainfall will cause dangerous heavy flooding Advisory 30
Irma is headed to the Virgin islands and close to the North coast of Puerto Rico.

Will it drop to a category two or three before it gets near the US mainland or will it keep the power it has now...surely it will have lost a bit of its sting by then... obviously a cat 2 or 3 still will cause substantial damage if it comes ashore.

cros13 · 06-09-2017 5:44pm

harr wrote:

Will it drop to a category two or three before it gets near the US mainland or will it keep the power it has now...surely it will have lost a bit of its sting by then... obviously a cat 2 or 3 still will cause substantial damage if it comes ashore.

There are some warm waters along Cuba that will keep it revved up to at least some extent.

star gazer · 06-09-2017 5:49pm

NHC has Irma a Category 4 Hurricane as it comes towards the South coast of Florida, it's too early to say for sure and seeing how fast Irma has intensified previously, it is prudent to be ready for intensification over warm water before reaching the Florida coast, even if it were to be weakened along its current path.

traco · 06-09-2017 5:52pm

harr wrote: »

Will it drop to a category two or three before it gets near the US mainland or will it keep the power it has now...surely it will have lost a bit of its sting by then... obviously a cat 2 or 3 still will cause substantial damage if it comes ashore.

Unlikely, if it runs straight up into the Florida peninsula I would think it will at best come onshore as a Cat 4, dropping to a 3 and maybe a 2 midways up as it moves North through the peninsula. By the way I'm no weather expert but I'd be expecting the worst and preparing for it.

If dead centered the eye is essential the width of the peninsula so even a Cat 1 would do a lot of damage.

It is massive and there are warm waters each side that will help sustain it in that scenario. Florida is very low so not much to disrupt it until North of I4 (Tampa - Orlando) were you start to get some hills. Its going to take some time to suck the power from it.

Best hope is that it veers east and loses some power as it moves north in the Atlantic and the waters cool a few degrees.

Rougies · 06-09-2017 6:24pm

Live Facebook feed from St. Thomas, VI

https://www.facebook.com/dawn.petersen.98/videos/10212705413443699/

She's back up, just go to her page. Shed is about to go.

BumperD · 06-09-2017 6:34pm

Another here St Thomas webcam still working eye is approaching

https://www.earthcam.com/world/virginislands/stthomas/?cam=stthomas

Stevecw · 06-09-2017 6:44pm

Great cam here from Puerto Rico, might be interesting later if it stays working.
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/webcam/puerto-rico/patillas/guardarraya/puerto-rico-patillas.html?format=html&lang=en

BumperD · 06-09-2017 6:53pm

BumperD wrote: »

Another here St Thomas webcam still working eye is approaching

https://www.earthcam.com/world/virginislands/stthomas/?cam=stthomas

Looks like that camera has gone offline now. Power likely gone ST.

Inquitus · 06-09-2017 7:04pm

Rougies wrote: »

Live Facebook feed from St. Thomas, VI

https://www.facebook.com/dawn.petersen.98/videos/10212705413443699/

She's back up, just go to her page. Shed is about to go.

The Shed put up some fight, but sadly gave away!

discostu1 · 06-09-2017 7:12pm

Anyone going or already out in FLorida some good stuff here https://www.thedibb.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=1044602&page=72

skyheinz · 06-09-2017 7:13pm

FYI - AerLingus offering free cancellation / rebooking.
Disney the same right now.

JCX BXC · 06-09-2017 7:14pm

Any webcams currently live in the affected areas?

BumperD · 06-09-2017 7:17pm

skyheinz wrote: »

FYI - AerLingus offering free cancellation / rebooking.
Disney the same right now.

That seems fair. Anyone deliberately flying into a state of emergency would need to have a good talk with themselves

Inquitus · 06-09-2017 7:20pm

Latest GFS and Euro seem to converge on a direct hit on Miami after skirting Cuba.

harr · 06-09-2017 7:22pm

Inquitus wrote: »

The Shed put up some fight, but sadly gave away!

Sitting down eating my dinner watching a shed fight against a cat 5 hurricane ðŸ™„ Lasted well mind

Meteorite58 · 06-09-2017 7:34pm

A few tweets .

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905495856606040064

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/905491500871626755

https://twitter.com/RMA_Ins/status/905461348896821248

https://twitter.com/EUStormMap/status/905482074190217216

https://twitter.com/spann/status/905469758362927104

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905498712130166784

Inquitus · 06-09-2017 7:36pm

Live feed from Charlotte Amalie in St.Thomas, very close to the south wall of the Eye, but probably just south of it.

https://www.facebook.com/livemap#@18.29658144,-64.969081804,10z