The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

Intense solar activity such as sunspots and solar flares subsides during solar minimum, but that doesn’t mean the sun becomes dull. Solar activity simply changes form.

This is my graph of the mean monthly sunspot numbers for November 2009 to February 2018 with notable points of interest marked. You can clearly see that we're not long off solar minimum, going by what 2009 was like on the chart.



Data is from SILSO.

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

Either way, Im highly surprised at 1993 having nothing! January and December had some cold westerlies that gave a slushy covering in north county Dublin, for a few hours at least.

If you dont count spring snowfalls in March or April, we had very little winter snow during the years from 1997 to 2000.

It didn't have nothing (you are correct), that site is just very inaccurate, as I already stated.

1993 was one of the more snowier years of the 90s.

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Not sure why space weather counted this one, tis so tiny I can't see it. Anyway 12 days blank then this, no way this would have been counted during the last grand minimas.

"Tiny new sunspot AR2701 is nearly invisible and will likely be gone tomorrow as it quickly fades away"

Quite a few sunspots on that image I thought to myself. Then I scrolled the page and realised that in fact what I had was quite a few residuals from a big sneeze on my monitor last night.

Don't worry, I've now wiped it down with some Dettol AntiBac/Viral Wipes

Another small sunspot appearing on the sun.

https://twitter.com/solweather/status/975341054076448768

Interesting interview with Mike Lockwood, an atmospheric physicist on the implications of the solar cycle on global and regional weather and climate.

Akrasia wrote: »

Interesting interview with Mike Lockwood, an atmospheric physicist on the implications of the solar cycle on global and regional weather and climate.

I'm confused. He says that the impact of the sun on global climate is nowhere near as big as that of "greenhouse gases" in general but that the sun's activity can impact on local weather patterns ("North America and Europe).

This winter, Japan, Korea, Moscow, Paris and many parts of North America have seen record or near record snowfall levels. We've had a very snowy winter (so far!).
Many parts of North Africa have had unusual amounts of snowfall. The Sahara has had lying snow at sea level three times in 2018. It's been dumping down across the the Middle East and it snowed heavily at low altitudes in Taiwan.
That seems like an awful lot of local weather! Most of the Northern Hemisphere.
Is that not a global influence and a significant one? If nothing else, this prolonged winter is going to have a very sigificant impact on the growing season for farmers all across the Northern Hemisphere.

Can anyone confirm if 2008 had 260 spotless days also? Google is telling me that but not sure it's correct.

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Can anyone confirm if 2008 had 260 spotless days also? Google is telling me that but not sure it's correct.

According to spaceweather.com, 2008 had 266 spotless days (73%).

EDIT: BLIZZARD7 got here first .

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Could either of you confirm what winter 08 was like please? I wasnt living in Ireland that year.

Are you referring to 2007/08? Or 2008/09?

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I was thinking more 08/09 but 07/08 would be great also. Just trying to figure out how far away we are from another 09/10!ðŸ˜

2007/08 was a bit of a teaser Winter. It was mild with some very unsettled periods including one of the wettest Januaries on record and some very high waves on December 8th/9th. However, mid-December brought a very anticyclonic period of weather that was unusually long and quiet, mid-February was similar too. The latter was very frosty at times. The 3rd/4th January brought a brief easterly which brought some heavy snowfall to parts of the north and east. The southeast was in the Anglesey shadow though. You can find some sources to these snowfalls in the links below. February 2008 had a polar vortex displacement SSW event. This in turn led to an intensified jet stream for March 2008 bringing us some very stormy conditions for the time of year albeit not that warm, in fact, quite cold. March 2008 brought some notable snowfalls including a White Easter - Easter Sunday fell on 23 March. The cold and snow was changeable though in between rather close to average or mildish periods which made March 2008 not that cold overall in terms of the mean temperatures. This had continued into April 2008 bringing some very notable late season snowfalls especially to the east, again see below. It ended by May 2008 though when a large amount of parts had their warmest May on record. The season was packed full of teasers for cold and what was to come including very low solar activity and an easterly QBO. The solar activity of 2007/08 was very comparable to that of 2017/18.

2008/09 was our first colder than normal Winter since 2000/01 at the time. It started off with an October that was the coldest for 4 years then. The month produced some highly unusual early snowfalls at the end of the month for quite a wide area over the UK and Ireland even as far south as London. Much of October 2008 was mild and very unsettled - though very sunny too. November was dry and rather mild throughout bar the very end when some snowfalls started to occur in localised parts and temperatures plunged. Dublin Airport had its coldest November day on record since its records began in 1941 on the 29th when it recorded a maximum of only 0.7c - this would be beaten in 2010. Minimum temperatures were getting down to -5c and with a lot of cloud too for many (though not all) including Dublin Airport making it feel very raw. December was a cold month, the coldest December since 1996, but not exceptionally so though still significant in terms of frost. The month had many frosts, starting off rather cold and ended in a very cold spell (not necessarily a freeze though) with a mild spell mixed in between. There were some scattered snow showers through December but nothing extreme. The main story of December was cold, dry and sunny. The latter cold spell would continue into the first week of January 2009 with some very cold temperatures recorded widely in severe frosts. Daytime temperatures generally in the low single figures for multiple days but dry and sunny. This was the coldest spell of weather since the end of December 2000. After this spell ended on the 10th, a very unsettled spell took place with changeable air masses but never really very mild. Plenty of heavy rain especially for the southwest with a storm on the 17th. On the 30th, very heavy rain pushed into Ireland with Cork having up to 50mm on this day as it lingered into the 31st. This was lingering because it was coming up against a Scandinavian block to the east which would then turn the winds into the east on 1st February bringing snowfalls initially to the east of the UK but reaching Ireland on the 2nd and especially into the 3rd. Some very heavy snowfalls in parts of the east on the 3rd. Dublin Airport had a daily rainfall of 29mm on February 3rd but I think this all fell as snow. Elsewhere, it was just cold and sunny. Temperatures struggled in the low single figures again like early January. This continued on for a week but snowfalls became less and less over time bar some heavy on the 5th/6th and the 8th. By the 11th, high pressure had ridged in across us bringing sunny but cold and dry weather. The high ridged to the south with weak low to the north and west bringing in a southwesterly flow for the rest of February making it all seem like a distant memory. This in fact made February 2009 a close to average month overall in terms of mean temperatures despite the notable spell at the beginning which whilst not as significant for Ireland, the UK had their most severe snowy spell since 1991. Spring 2009 was mild throughout generally bar one quick snow interval on March 8th. The Winter was very strange in that NAO and AO were both positive as well as a westerly QBO but the very very low solar activity more than helped to compensate for blocking to occur helping it to be a cold
Winter - the first of three consecutive to come.

2009-10 was a rare perfect combination of a central based El Nino (El Nino Modoki), very low solar activity, very negative NAO, very negative AO, negative PDO etc. It's not all down to solar activity.

http://www.peterduncanson.net/snow/snow00.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2009_Great_Britain_and_Ireland_snowfall







https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055408574

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Cheers Sryanbruen! So winter 19/20 is the big one then Yeah?😀

I do personally think 2019/20 holds the best prospects currently for severe cold but with our weather you never know like maybe 2018/19 will be the one.

Deleted User wrote: »

A spot has been spotted! :P

I think we've reached that moment in time when instead of counting spotless days, we start to count spotty days.

...... and blank again. That didn't last long!
http://www.spaceweather.com/

sryanbruen wrote: »

Here's the chart of comparison to previous years with what BLIZZARD7 posted for 2018.

Now, 58 spotless days (60%).

61 spotless days (61%)

https://twitter.com/solweather/status/983675977338204160

http://www.spaceweather.com/