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The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

191012141519

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,633 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    A history of solar activity over millennia - Ilya G. Usoskin - http://jultika.oulu.fi/files/nbnfi-fe201703061963.pdf
    Abstract - Presented here is a review of present knowledge of the long-term behavior of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview of the special indices used to quantify different aspects of variable solar activity, with special emphasis upon sunspot number.

    continued . . .

    If you want the conclusion
    In general, the following main features are observed in the long-term evolution of solar magnetic activity.

    – Solar activity is dominated by the 11-year Schwabe cycle on an interannual timescale. Some additional longer characteristic times can be found, including the Gleissberg secular cycle, de Vries/Suess cycle, and a quasi-cycle of 2000– 2400 years (Hallstatt cycle). However, all these longer cycles are intermittent and cannot be regarded as strict phase-locked periodicities.

    – One of the main features of long-term solar activity is that it contains an essential chaotic/ stochastic component, which leads to irregular variations and makes solar-activity predictions impossible for a scale exceeding one solar cycle.

    – The sun spends about 70% of its time at moderate magnetic activity levels, about 15–20% of its time in a grand minimum and about 10–15% in a grand maximum.

    – Grand minima are a typical but rare phenomena in solar behavior. They form a distinct mode of solar dynamo. Their occurrence appears not periodically, but rather as the result of a chaotic process within clusters separated by the 2000-2500 years (around the lows of the Hallstatt cycle). Grand minima tend to be of two distinct types: short (Maunder-like) and longer (Spörer-like).

    – The recent level of solar activity (after the 1940s) was very high, corresponding to a prolonged grand maximum, but it has ceased to the normal moderate level. Grand maxima are also rare and irregularly occurring events, though the exact rate of their occurrence is still a subject of debates.

    These observational features of the long-term behavior of solar activity have important implications, especially for the development of theoretical solar-dynamo models and for solar-terrestrial studies.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    Spotless again. That's 4 days on the trot now.

    screenshot_1.png

    http://spaceweather.com/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Floki


    Almost the same post as above.
    4 spotless days on the trot again.
    The spotless days have racked up this year.

    There's a good article in space weather.com about pink auroras currently taking place which is unusual but it seems to have a correlation between a spotless quiet Sun and solar wind or maybe cosmic rays able to reach lower down into the earths atmosphere (possibly from a lower than normal earth magnetic field ) hitting nitrogen atoms and producing this pink colour.

    More here..
    http://spaceweather.com/


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]



    http://spaceweather.com/
    THE SUN IS DIMMING:
    Today at Cape Canaveral, SpaceX launched a new sensor to the International Space Station named TSIS-1. Its mission: to measure the dimming of the sun. As the sunspot cycle plunges toward its 11-year minimum, NASA satellites are tracking a decline in total solar irradiance (TSI). Across the entire electromagnetic spectrum, the sun's output has dropped nearly 0.1% compared to the Solar Maximum of 2012-2014. This plot shows the TSI since 1978 as observed from nine previous satellites:

    tsi.png?PHPSESSID=4ki9c00oe7vja5id6edgmim7d7
    We may soon see if the "man made warming" is really warming the planet as much as has been claimed, will the reduced solar irradiation reverse this warming or will it get even cooler. One thing that appears to be apparent is the wakening solar magnetic field is also weakening the Earth's magnetic field and this is allowing in more radiation.

    So this could mean more cancers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,633 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande




    Intense solar activity such as sunspots and solar flares subsides during solar minimum, but that doesn’t mean the sun becomes dull. Solar activity simply changes form.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,184 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    I think its worthwhile getting this thread going again as it looks that things are getting very interesting. Hopefully we get something a bit longer than a cold snap next winter.
    Could you find any dark cores? Answer: No. The last time the sun was blank more than 50% of the time was in 2009, near the end of the deepest Solar Minimum of the Space Age. Now the sun is entering a new Solar Minimum, and it is shaping up to be even deeper than before.

    http://www.spaceweather.com/


  • Registered Users Posts: 68 ✭✭dring


    Number of Days with snow Dublin Airport-

    Year SN
    1973 16
    1974 11
    1975 19
    1976 12
    1977 25
    1978 27
    1979 45
    1980 15
    1981 15
    1982 19
    1983 20
    1984 27
    1985 28
    1986 35
    1987 18
    1988 17
    1989 20
    1990 24
    1991 20
    1992 9
    1993 -
    1994 13
    1995 34
    1996 25
    1997 13
    1998 15
    1999 13
    2000 8
    2001 10
    2002 9
    2003 11
    2004 9
    2005 -
    2006 10
    2007 8
    2008 9
    2009 16
    2010 41
    2011 9
    2012 6
    2013 26
    2014 5
    2015 16
    2016 12
    2017 10


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    dring wrote: »
    Number of Days with snow Dublin Airport-

    Year SN
    1973 16
    1974 11
    1975 19
    1976 12
    1977 25
    1978 27
    1979 45
    1980 15
    1981 15
    1982 19
    1983 20
    1984 27
    1985 28
    1986 35
    1987 18
    1988 17
    1989 20
    1990 24
    1991 20
    1992 9
    1993 -
    1994 13
    1995 34
    1996 25
    1997 13
    1998 15
    1999 13
    2000 8
    2001 10
    2002 9
    2003 11
    2004 9
    2005 -
    2006 10
    2007 8
    2008 9
    2009 16
    2010 41
    2011 9
    2012 6
    2013 26
    2014 5
    2015 16
    2016 12
    2017 10

    This seems a bit inaccurate. Where did you get your data from?


  • Registered Users Posts: 68 ✭✭dring


    this website https://en.tutiempo.net/climate/ws-39690.html , I cannot find a similar table on the meteireann website, This would be the number of days with even one snow flurry observed, 2010 had snow in Jan and again in Nov./Dec. Jan/Feb 79 was very cold so that explains the two highest numbers, the 82 snow was gone by Jan 18th I think. There is some comparison here on snow events http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/ColdSpell10.pdf
    This year´s event seems both less cold and shorter than many of the other historical events but I would guess more snow fell last Friday than on possibly any one day on record


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    dring wrote: »
    this website https://en.tutiempo.net/climate/ws-39690.html , I cannot find a similar table on the meteireann website, This would be the number of days with even one snow flurry observed, 2010 had snow in Jan and again in Nov./Dec. Jan/Feb 79 was very cold so that explains the two highest numbers, the 82 snow was gone by Jan 18th I think. There is some comparison here on snow events http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/ColdSpell10.pdf
    This year´s event seems both less cold and shorter than many of the other historical events but I would guess more snow fell last Friday than on possibly any one day on record

    That explains it then, that site is full of inaccurate information. Stay away from it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 191 ✭✭Casualsingby


    Is it counting days with sleet/snow falling rather than just snow falling.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Day 9 in a row blank - we are heading towards 2009 levels fast :)

    hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=mggcqer3rj2m3ss6g2vnj9h810


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    This is my graph of the mean monthly sunspot numbers for November 2009 to February 2018 with notable points of interest marked. You can clearly see that we're not long off solar minimum, going by what 2009 was like on the chart.

    YLefzqf.png

    Data is from SILSO.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    If you'd like to know about the solar activity or sun as of recently and what it could mean for us in Winter time or even the globe in general, I'd highly recommend GavsWeatherVids' most recent Solar Sunday video he did in February. In my opinion, it's absolutely brilliant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Sun blank again, day 10 in a row.
    38 days blank this year (52%)


  • Registered Users Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Mullaghteelin


    Is it counting days with sleet/snow falling rather than just snow falling.

    Either way, Im highly surprised at 1993 having nothing! January and December had some cold westerlies that gave a slushy covering in north county Dublin, for a few hours at least.

    If you dont count spring snowfalls in March or April, we had very little winter snow during the years from 1997 to 2000.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Either way, Im highly surprised at 1993 having nothing! January and December had some cold westerlies that gave a slushy covering in north county Dublin, for a few hours at least.

    If you dont count spring snowfalls in March or April, we had very little winter snow during the years from 1997 to 2000.

    It didn't have nothing (you are correct), that site is just very inaccurate, as I already stated.

    1993 was one of the more snowier years of the 90s.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Not sure why space weather counted this one, tis so tiny I can't see it. Anyway 12 days blank then this, no way this would have been counted during the last grand minimas.

    "Tiny new sunspot AR2701 is nearly invisible and will likely be gone tomorrow as it quickly fades away"

    hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=01l141k7lo32pb9gjluhf68v03


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭Calibos


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Not sure why space weather counted this one, tis so tiny I can't see it. Anyway 12 days blank then this, no way this would have been counted during the last grand minimas.

    "Tiny new sunspot AR2701 is nearly invisible and will likely be gone tomorrow as it quickly fades away"

    Quite a few sunspots on that image I thought to myself. Then I scrolled the page and realised that in fact what I had was quite a few residuals from a big sneeze on my monitor last night.

    Don't worry, I've now wiped it down with some Dettol AntiBac/Viral Wipes :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Long period of spotless activity (bar one tiny little sunspot that BLIZZARD7 highlighted :p) since the end of February. March 2017 had a long run of spotless days too before a large spike at the beginning of April.

    https://twitter.com/solweather/status/974978678332448768


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Another small sunspot appearing on the sun.

    https://twitter.com/solweather/status/975341054076448768

    dBf5v50.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Fun fact, 1888 is a year of solar cycle 12 which was a very similar solar cycle in progression to the current one solar cycle 24 and it encompassed some very cold Winters like 1878/1879 (also the coldest year on record - 1879) and 1890/91 at the end of it with the coldest December on record at that time for the CET and still beats 2010 at only 0.1c lower than it.

    cycl12.gif

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_12

    https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/976055439891881985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefault%26f%3Dgavsweathervids1%26t_u%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.gavsweathervids.com%252Fcomments-3.php%26t_d%3DThird%2520Chat%2520And%2520Discussion%2520Thread%2520For%2520GWV%26t_t%3DThird%2520Chat%2520And%2520Discussion%2520Thread%2520For%2520GWV%26s_o%3Ddefault%23version%3D3e91f895da97667a42583677a655c093


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Sun is blank again -

    Current Stretch: 3 days
    2018 total: 44 days (54%)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Current Stretch: 4 days
    2018 total: 45 days (55%)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Interesting interview with Mike Lockwood, an atmospheric physicist on the implications of the solar cycle on global and regional weather and climate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Blizzard,
    Another spotless day, somehow I think it would be easier to count the sunspots this year😉


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 489 ✭✭Mr Bumble


    Akrasia wrote: »
    Interesting interview with Mike Lockwood, an atmospheric physicist on the implications of the solar cycle on global and regional weather and climate.


    I'm confused. He says that the impact of the sun on global climate is nowhere near as big as that of "greenhouse gases" in general but that the sun's activity can impact on local weather patterns ("North America and Europe).

    This winter, Japan, Korea, Moscow, Paris and many parts of North America have seen record or near record snowfall levels. We've had a very snowy winter (so far!).
    Many parts of North Africa have had unusual amounts of snowfall. The Sahara has had lying snow at sea level three times in 2018. It's been dumping down across the the Middle East and it snowed heavily at low altitudes in Taiwan.
    That seems like an awful lot of local weather! Most of the Northern Hemisphere.
    Is that not a global influence and a significant one? If nothing else, this prolonged winter is going to have a very sigificant impact on the growing season for farmers all across the Northern Hemisphere.


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Mr Bumble wrote: »
    I'm confused. He says that the impact of the sun on global climate is nowhere near as big as that of "greenhouse gases" in general but that the sun's activity can impact on local weather patterns ("North America and Europe).

    This winter, Japan, Korea, Moscow, Paris and many parts of North America have seen record or near record snowfall levels. We've had a very snowy winter (so far!).
    Many parts of North Africa have had unusual amounts of snowfall. The Sahara has had lying snow at sea level three times in 2018. It's been dumping down across the the Middle East and it snowed heavily at low altitudes in Taiwan.
    That seems like an awful lot of local weather! Most of the Northern Hemisphere.
    Is that not a global influence and a significant one? If nothing else, this prolonged winter is going to have a very sigificant impact on the growing season for farmers all across the Northern Hemisphere.
    I think his definition of local weather is correct in the sense that each of these areas of weather cange only affect those localities, globally they cancel each other out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    A week blank now - that % is gradually increasing

    Current Stretch: 7 days
    2018 total: 48 days (56%)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Here's the chart of comparison to previous years with what BLIZZARD7 posted for 2018.

    IE7CHTe.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 31 Maunderevents


    I have been forecasting these events since 2010 I made a prediction most parts would not see any snow events till around winter 2017-18.
    This winter is only a transition winter I fully expect worse ahead maunder not dalton repeat in years ahead,also lots more east flows and polar jet coming a lot more south than normal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    10 days on the blink now -

    Current Stretch: 10 days
    2018 total: 51 days (57%)

    Solar flux : 69


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Can anyone confirm if 2008 had 260 spotless days also? Google is telling me that but not sure it's correct.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Can anyone confirm if 2008 had 260 spotless days also? Google is telling me that but not sure it's correct.


    266 according to this link -

    http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/spotlessdays.htm

    centuryplot_gif2.gif

    Obviously 2009 should be up there on that graph now too ^


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Can anyone confirm if 2008 had 260 spotless days also? Google is telling me that but not sure it's correct.

    According to spaceweather.com, 2008 had 266 spotless days (73%).

    EDIT: BLIZZARD7 got here first :p.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Could either of you confirm what winter 08 was like please? I wasnt living in Ireland that year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Could either of you confirm what winter 08 was like please? I wasnt living in Ireland that year.

    Are you referring to 2007/08? Or 2008/09?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    sryanbruen wrote:
    Are you referring to 2007/08? Or 2008/09?

    I was thinking more 08/09 but 07/08 would be great also. Just trying to figure out how far away we are from another 09/10!ðŸ˜


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I was thinking more 08/09 but 07/08 would be great also. Just trying to figure out how far away we are from another 09/10!ðŸ˜

    2007/08 was a bit of a teaser Winter. It was mild with some very unsettled periods including one of the wettest Januaries on record and some very high waves on December 8th/9th. However, mid-December brought a very anticyclonic period of weather that was unusually long and quiet, mid-February was similar too. The latter was very frosty at times. The 3rd/4th January brought a brief easterly which brought some heavy snowfall to parts of the north and east. The southeast was in the Anglesey shadow though. You can find some sources to these snowfalls in the links below. February 2008 had a polar vortex displacement SSW event. This in turn led to an intensified jet stream for March 2008 bringing us some very stormy conditions for the time of year albeit not that warm, in fact, quite cold. March 2008 brought some notable snowfalls including a White Easter - Easter Sunday fell on 23 March. The cold and snow was changeable though in between rather close to average or mildish periods which made March 2008 not that cold overall in terms of the mean temperatures. This had continued into April 2008 bringing some very notable late season snowfalls especially to the east, again see below. It ended by May 2008 though when a large amount of parts had their warmest May on record. The season was packed full of teasers for cold and what was to come including very low solar activity and an easterly QBO. The solar activity of 2007/08 was very comparable to that of 2017/18.

    2008/09 was our first colder than normal Winter since 2000/01 at the time. It started off with an October that was the coldest for 4 years then. The month produced some highly unusual early snowfalls at the end of the month for quite a wide area over the UK and Ireland even as far south as London. Much of October 2008 was mild and very unsettled - though very sunny too. November was dry and rather mild throughout bar the very end when some snowfalls started to occur in localised parts and temperatures plunged. Dublin Airport had its coldest November day on record since its records began in 1941 on the 29th when it recorded a maximum of only 0.7c - this would be beaten in 2010. Minimum temperatures were getting down to -5c and with a lot of cloud too for many (though not all) including Dublin Airport making it feel very raw. December was a cold month, the coldest December since 1996, but not exceptionally so though still significant in terms of frost. The month had many frosts, starting off rather cold and ended in a very cold spell (not necessarily a freeze though) with a mild spell mixed in between. There were some scattered snow showers through December but nothing extreme. The main story of December was cold, dry and sunny. The latter cold spell would continue into the first week of January 2009 with some very cold temperatures recorded widely in severe frosts. Daytime temperatures generally in the low single figures for multiple days but dry and sunny. This was the coldest spell of weather since the end of December 2000. After this spell ended on the 10th, a very unsettled spell took place with changeable air masses but never really very mild. Plenty of heavy rain especially for the southwest with a storm on the 17th. On the 30th, very heavy rain pushed into Ireland with Cork having up to 50mm on this day as it lingered into the 31st. This was lingering because it was coming up against a Scandinavian block to the east which would then turn the winds into the east on 1st February bringing snowfalls initially to the east of the UK but reaching Ireland on the 2nd and especially into the 3rd. Some very heavy snowfalls in parts of the east on the 3rd. Dublin Airport had a daily rainfall of 29mm on February 3rd but I think this all fell as snow. Elsewhere, it was just cold and sunny. Temperatures struggled in the low single figures again like early January. This continued on for a week but snowfalls became less and less over time bar some heavy on the 5th/6th and the 8th. By the 11th, high pressure had ridged in across us bringing sunny but cold and dry weather. The high ridged to the south with weak low to the north and west bringing in a southwesterly flow for the rest of February making it all seem like a distant memory. This in fact made February 2009 a close to average month overall in terms of mean temperatures despite the notable spell at the beginning which whilst not as significant for Ireland, the UK had their most severe snowy spell since 1991. Spring 2009 was mild throughout generally bar one quick snow interval on March 8th. The Winter was very strange in that NAO and AO were both positive as well as a westerly QBO but the very very low solar activity more than helped to compensate for blocking to occur helping it to be a cold
    Winter - the first of three consecutive to come.

    2009-10 was a rare perfect combination of a central based El Nino (El Nino Modoki), very low solar activity, very negative NAO, very negative AO, negative PDO etc. It's not all down to solar activity.

    http://www.peterduncanson.net/snow/snow00.html

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2009_Great_Britain_and_Ireland_snowfall







    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055408574


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Cheers Sryanbruen! So winter 19/20 is the big one then Yeah?😀


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Cheers Sryanbruen! So winter 19/20 is the big one then Yeah?😀

    I do personally think 2019/20 holds the best prospects currently for severe cold but with our weather you never know like maybe 2018/19 will be the one. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 31 Maunderevents


    This winter is a transition winter
    So next winter could be a big one and one after that.
    Even in maunder conditions we will have mild winters, winters ahead will be huge I feel stuff we have never seen.
    Long east flows and lots of blocking


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    This winter is a transition winter
    So next winter could be a big one and one after that.
    Even in maunder conditions we will have mild winters, winters ahead will be huge I feel stuff we have never seen.
    Long east flows and lots of blocking
    Let's hope we see something similar to the initial beast except more prolonged and at an even better time of year like mid January.


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    A spot has been spotted! :P

    I think we've reached that moment in time when instead of counting spotless days, we start to count spotty days.

    hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=n4etucg9evk3bu84osld941p74


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,184 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    A spot has been spotted! :P

    I think we've reached that moment in time when instead of counting spotless days, we start to count spotty days.
    ...... and blank again. That didn't last long!
    http://www.spaceweather.com/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Here's the chart of comparison to previous years with what BLIZZARD7 posted for 2018.

    Now, 58 spotless days (60%).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    59 spotless days (60%)

    http://www.spaceweather.com/


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




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