Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Graces7 · 13-12-2018 6:58am

Was not expecting that gale last night. A loud and talkative one with serious deluges. West Mayo offshore island.

Thestones · 13-12-2018 8:21am

Terrible night in Dublin and it's not over yet, winds haven't stopped or subsided at all.

SleetAndSnow · 13-12-2018 8:22am

Awful morning in cork city. Heavy rain still and strong winds, didn’t stop all night.

BLIZZARD7 · 13-12-2018 8:24am

PV over Siberia, west atlantic height rises and warmer air being pumped towards Svalbard/Russian high building- This would likely go down the colder GFS route rather than the ECM in the extended range. ECM has stubborn heights building into southern europe just as everything else is falling into place, we absolutely need low pressure over southern europe for a chance at any sort of sustained cold shot.

GFS and UKMO are solid this morning, ECM needs to drop heights over southern Europe in the coming days if we want a cold spell. The good thing is these charts are showing before any stratosphere warming affect could have filtered down, these are mainly trop led patterns showing so far.

KingdomRushed · 13-12-2018 8:49am

Wind howling again in Dublin this morning. Sense of fatigue and deja vu after at least 5 weeks of such weather. Awful stuff, no frosty mornings, no crisp air or twinkly cold nights. Just this filthy never ending slop.

cyclops999 · 13-12-2018 9:00am

The Eagle forecasts torrential rain and damaging wind gusts for Saturday

Artane2002 · 13-12-2018 9:06am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Wind howling again in Dublin this morning. Sense of fatigue and deja vu after at least 5 weeks of such weather. Awful stuff, no frosty mornings, no crisp air or twinkly cold nights. Just this filthy never ending slop.

I don't think December so far has been particularly horrible like November for me but even a frost seems like a big ask.

BLIZZARD7 · 13-12-2018 9:11am

cyclops999 wrote: »

The Eagle forecasts torrential rain and damaging wind gusts for Saturday

Yeah saturday could be quite nasty in parts- especially the south. Worth keeping an eye on.

Darwin · 13-12-2018 9:29am

GFS is showing something different to other models in this regard - met eireann think the most damaging winds on Saturday will likely be in the North of the country. It shows this clearly on their wind forecast page.

fred funk }{ · 13-12-2018 9:34am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Wind howling again in Dublin this morning. Sense of fatigue and deja vu after at least 5 weeks of such weather. Awful stuff, no frosty mornings, no crisp air or twinkly cold nights. Just this filthy never ending slop.

Really is the pits. Makes the days even shorter than they already are.

alentejo · 13-12-2018 10:20am

I think this morning was one of the darkest mornings ever!!!

Kamili · 13-12-2018 10:20am

I wasn't expecting that gale at all last night. The wind noise kept me awake too.

Keeping an eye on Saturday, this constant blowy stuff and wet stuff is depressing!

alentejo wrote: »

I think this morning was one of the darkest mornings ever!!!

Its still Dark here in Dublin...

nthclare · 13-12-2018 10:22am

Hibernation weather for sure.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 13-12-2018 10:27am

It's like a colder, darker version of summer.

irishrover99 · 13-12-2018 11:18am

My please stop here santa got obliterated during the night.
I made sure i was out the door before the kids seen it as i new they wouldn't be happy when they seen it broken.

Tigerandahalf · 13-12-2018 11:20am

Really dark these past few days, even at 10am. Can you imagine how dark it would be if we scrapped winter time?

This autumn in the west has been really dark, gloomy and wet.

I guess we will get a dry spell to compensate at some stage. Some good clear blue sky days in January would be a great tonic.

Storm 10 · 13-12-2018 11:28am

ME

Saturday: A deepening area of low pressure is expected to track near Ireland
on Saturday bringing heavy rain and the potential for a period very strong
winds. Exact details regarding this weather system remain uncertain so please
keep up to date with the forecast. Highest temperatures ranging 7 to 10 degrees
generally but a few degrees colder in north Ulster. The rain and strong winds
will clear northeastwards into Britain overnight with clear spells and showers
following. Lowest temperatures 2-5 degrees.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 13-12-2018 11:34am

Well the good news is the sunsets are getting later.

Rebelbrowser · 13-12-2018 11:38am

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Well the good news is the sunsets are getting later.

Not for 8 more days?

Franz Von Peppercorn · 13-12-2018 11:46am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Not for 8 more days?

Ha! This is where I get to talk about something I learned a few years ago which surprised me too.

There’s a strange kink in the year where the sunsets are later from the 10th December but because the sunrises are even later the day gets shorter until the 21/22nd. The sunrises keep getting later for about ten days after that, but from the solstice the later sunsets make up fo it and the days get longer.

That feeling that’s it’s really dark in the morning early jan is true.

https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/ireland/dublin

Calibos · 13-12-2018 11:46am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Not for 8 more days?

IIRC theres something about the earths orbit as we approach perihelion in our Northern Winter that means that while the days continue to get shorter till the 21st, the sunrise and sunset time starts shifting later before the 21st. M.T. would be our man for explaining it.

JCX BXC · 13-12-2018 11:46am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Not for 8 more days?

Not true. Sunsets not getting any earlier anymore, but sunrises are getting later. Days still getting shorter though.

We're playing with a handful of minutes from now until the end of December though, you won't notice the difference until January at least.

Supercell · 13-12-2018 11:50am

Was just looking at that yesterday, couldn't give a fiddlers about the mornings, delighted the evenings are at their shortest now so I can get out for a run after work in brightness by the end of January hopefully. Let's keep summer time next time!

Alanhooly · 13-12-2018 12:30pm

I'm getting married Saturday (mid day) and hoping that the heavy rainfall expected can behave itself a small bit. There is a few conflicting reports, anyone care predict how it looks from your information available?

I know people might hate this type of post so feel free to delete if you feel it is not relevant. Thanks.

Gonzo · 13-12-2018 12:38pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I don't think December so far has been particularly horrible like November for me but even a frost seems like a big ask.

We've had wall to wall relentless muck here in South Meath since around 1st November with barely any dry days. The roads and pavements here have been damp continuously with no real drying at any stage.

I think December so far hasn't been quite as wet as November which really was a stand out horrible month.

Looks mostly damp, windy and wet between now and Christmas Eve, however there is a glimmer of hope that we may see things cool down slightly from Christmas Day onwards with hopefully dryer conditions and a chance of night time frosts setting in.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 13-12-2018 12:40pm

Alanhooly wrote: »

I'm getting married Saturday (mid day) and hoping that the heavy rainfall expected can behave itself a small bit. There is a few conflicting reports, anyone care predict how it looks from your information available?

I know people might hate this type of post so feel free to delete if you feel it is not relevant. Thanks.

Best of luck. (The forum is general discussion so I assume it’s ok.)

Gonzo · 13-12-2018 12:47pm

Alanhooly wrote: »

I'm getting married Saturday (mid day) and hoping that the heavy rainfall expected can behave itself a small bit. There is a few conflicting reports, anyone care predict how it looks from your information available?

I know people might hate this type of post so feel free to delete if you feel it is not relevant. Thanks.

Saturday unfortunately is looking very unsettled.

Heavy rain is certain on Saturday, especially in the morning to early afternoon. Showers following in the afternoon and evening after the main rain band has cleared to our east.

Temperatures will be on the mildish side around 7 to 10C. It could also be very windy, but the details of the winds have still to be nailed down.

Storm 10 · 13-12-2018 1:19pm

ME Just posted an advance warning for Saturday could all change

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for
Ireland

Potential for severe weather on Saturday 15th December. Hazardous conditions
may result from heavy rain, and possibly wind also.

km79 · 13-12-2018 1:57pm

Going to see Santa in Bunratty saturday and planning on spending the day around the grounds/village

sryanbruen · 13-12-2018 2:48pm

One word to describe these multi-model composites for January-March 2019: wow! Monster northern blocking being predicted by the seasonal models in the composites for the period named with a trough of below average heights either over us or to the southeast. A definite signal for a cold second half to Winter, maybe even significantly so.

This isn’t the first time we’ve seen this signal of course - been a signal for a good while.

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1073208153741975553?s=21

Rock Lesnar · 13-12-2018 3:20pm

Dry and fairly windy here today and yesterday, needed it before the rain on saturday

Gonzo · 13-12-2018 3:35pm

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Dry and fairly windy here today and yesterday, needed it before the rain on saturday

not a nice day in south Meath, mostly drizzle and small moments of heavier bursts, breezy, dark and just overall a wet day.

Gonzo · 13-12-2018 4:13pm

looks like more heavy rain about to arrive here at Dunshaughlin. It's also a very chilly feeling afternoon with current temperature only 5C.

SleetAndSnow · 13-12-2018 6:04pm

raining and windy for 24 hours here now in Cork City basically. Eugh

Franz Von Peppercorn · 13-12-2018 7:07pm

That blocking that was forecast a while back is over Britain, isn't it?

Graces7 · 13-12-2018 7:19pm

Peace is settling over the ocean and island like a blessing . Respite from wind and deluge; a breathing space. Not for long I think but deeply healing!

West mayo offshore island

Cork Boy 53 · 13-12-2018 11:45pm

km79 wrote: »

Going to see Santa in Bunratty saturday and planning on spending the day around the grounds/village

Going by Saturday`s forecast, I would suggest you bring a dinghy/canoe/motorboat/ark(select whatever you have handy).

icesnowfrost · 14-12-2018 4:17am

To far out to be in a reliable time frame but it’s nice to see the models hinting at some nice cold weather and some snow in places Christmas Day

Graces7 · 14-12-2018 7:43am

Still blissfully quiet. Was so quiet I could not sleep! West Mayo offshore island

Graces7 · 14-12-2018 12:40pm

And here comes a diagonal deluge, borne apace on wind... West Mayo offshore island

Kamili · 14-12-2018 12:56pm

Stay dry and warm inside Graces7 - I think the next 24 hours (maybe longer) are gonna be horrendous!

squarecircles · 14-12-2018 1:15pm

christmas day

sryanbruen · 14-12-2018 1:21pm

MJO analogs from Michael Ventrice here show blocking is favoured on our side of the pole (not the US) in the latter part of December into the New Year which would produce colder than average conditions for us. Week 4 (3-10 January which is the longest away of course so least reliable) looks particularly bitter and with the trough near us, there would be several instances of wintry potential.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1073547162980638722

Graces7 · 14-12-2018 1:24pm

Kamili wrote: »

Stay dry and warm inside Graces7 - I think the next 24 hours (maybe longer) are gonna be horrendous!

I have its measure thanks to boards! Fuel well stocked inside etc. Bring it on!

MidMan25 · 14-12-2018 1:43pm

Heading to North America in last two weeks of Jan. MT's neck of the woods Canadian Rockies for the first week and NY for the second. Liking the sound of a cold January across the NH!

Artane2002 · 14-12-2018 2:29pm

The Met Office 16-30 day update is really encouraging. It uses wording like "winter hazards" and "snow is likely". It even says there is a chance that the cold may get in by the end of December.

Gonzo · 14-12-2018 3:10pm

all of a sudden things are starting to get more promising, signs of the Atlantic finally starting to lose it's grip, with a potential easterly setting in from Christmas Eve.

We are still 10+ days out from this potential cold snap, so caution is very much advised, I wouldn't be getting too excited yet.

jon burrows · 14-12-2018 3:15pm

Gonzo wrote:

We are still 10+ days out from this potential cold snap, so caution is very much advised, I wouldn't be getting too excited yet.

Too late, already excited ðŸ˜ðŸ˜

PokeHerKing · 14-12-2018 3:29pm

Which is more conducive to deep cold for Ireland. A Greenland/Iceland high or Scandi high?

BLIZZARD7 · 14-12-2018 3:38pm

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Which is more conducive to deep cold for Ireland. A Greenland/Iceland high or Scandi high?

It entirely depends on the rest of the pattern/other variables but a 'Griceland' high is ideal.

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Comments