Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

China

During the past 3-4 days, the number of new infections has come down drastically in Wuhan -- from what used to be in the hundreds down to 4 for 2 consecutive days.

This has been considered success of control measures. There is another epidemiological explanation. Wuhan population has very likely been virtually saturated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, depleting the numbers, and minimising the proportion of non-immune persons among the population. Low numbers of new infections should be expected.

This sequence of events suggests that eventually, SARS-CoV-2 will behave like H1N1 and follow a similar trajectory. We should expect it becoming endemic and probably seasonal. Not a comforting thought.

In Wuhan, the earliest detected infection was in mid-November [2019]. The transition from zoonotic transmission to anthroponotic transmission might have occurred even earlier; probably much earlier.

--
T Jacob John
Infectious Disease Epidemiologist
Retired Professor of Clinical Virology, Christian Medical College, Vellore, India.


Italy


[The tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy is now, 24 747 cases, including 1809 deaths, up from 21 157 cases and 1441 deaths reported on 14 Mar 2020. The 24-hour change between 14 and 15 Mar 2020 was 3590 newly confirmed cases, compared with 3497 newly confirmed cases between 13 and 14 Mar 2020. Cases continue to be concentrated in Lombardy (13 272), the epicenter of the outbreak, Emilia-Romagna (3093), and Venice (2172), all in the northern part of the country. These 3 provinces account for 74.9% of newly confirmed cases in the past 24 hours. There is an excellent interactive map at http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1 to visualize the caseloads per region in near real time.

On 9 Mar 2020, Italy announced a lockdown for the northern provinces where the outbreak was concentrated. On 10 Mar 2020, this was changed to be countrywide. On 11 Mar 2020, Italy announced the closure of non-essential businesses. As for seeing an impact, one shouldn't expect to see an impact until at least one incubation period has passed, as there are newly infected individuals who are still in their incubation period for up to 14 days. As mentioned before, the Public Health world is looking at Italy to see if this is feasible and if it has an impact in terms of slowing down transmission of the virus.


Iran

Iran warned on Sunday [15 Mar 2020] that its health facilities could be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases. The country, which has the 3rd-most recorded cases and deaths, reported another 113 deaths on Sunday, pushing its death toll to 724, The Associated Press [AP] reported. Iran has confirmed 14 000 cases.

"If the trend continues, there will not be enough capacity," said Ali Reza Zali, who is leading the Iranian campaign against the outbreak, the state-run IRNA news agency reported, according to the AP. The country is believed to have 110 000 hospital beds, with 30 000 in the capital, Tehran, but authorities said they will develop mobile clinics as needed.

Zali also said "many" of the people who have died from the virus were otherwise healthy, which strays from other statements from local officials who say the disease only impacts those who are older and/or sick. About 55 percent of the people who died were in their 60s, while 15 percent were younger than 40. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Sunday [15 Mar 2020] that the country would not be implementing a general quarantine and would continue to work to keep its borders open, according to the AP.

Iran is experiencing the worst outbreak in the Middle East. Several senior officials, including Cabinet ministers, members of Parliament, Revolutionary Guard members and Health Ministry officials have tested positive for the virus.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/487647-iran-warns-of-overwhelmed-health-facilities