PopePalpatine's Motorsport Betting Log

The 24 Hours of Le Mans is the weekend, and I'm looking at the LMP2 class for some long-shot value. To the best of my knowledge, only Paddy Power offer bets on that class. Just like the Indy 500, I won't be doing any huge bets, this is really just for interest.

First of all, €2.20 on the #13 Vaillante Rebellion @9/1 with the trio of the inaugural Formula E champion Nelson Piquet Jr, software programmer-turned-racing driver David Heinemeier Hansson and reigning co-champion of the European Le Mans Series' LMP2 class, Mathias Beche.

Next up is €2 on the #25 Manor @10/1, led by the bane of Fernando Alonso's life, Vitaly Petrov.

As for the long shots, 40c e/w on the #29 Racing Team Nederland @50/1 with Jan Lammers (who boasts one of the longest gaps between F1 entries - a whole TEN years between the 1982 French GP and the 1992 Japanese GP), Frits van Eerd (I guess he's a "gentleman driver") and Michael Schumacher's former rear-gunner, Rubens Barrichello, and 35c e/w on the #27 SMP Racing @80/1 with an all-Russian trio, two of whom (Sirotkin & Aleshin) are ranked "Platinum" - the highest possible driver rating in WEC.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

One last bet of €6.30 on the #7 Toyota (Buemi/Nakajima/Davidson) @15/8 with Paddy.

Considering the time the #8 spent in the pits replacing a brake disc, I'm writing this off.

€186.76
- €6.30
======
€180.46

First bet for WELL DONE Baku: €8 on Vettel to win the Azerbaijan GP @2/1 with William Hill. I just don't see Hamilton as an odds-on chance here. Granted, there was a Mercedes in the back of Bottas's Williams last year when he set the all-time record for highest speed trap reading in F1 at 378km/h down the 2.2km long pit straight, but this year's Merc has proven harder to set up than the Ferrari.

I'm on the fence at the moment over whether to bet on Lance Stroll to fail to finish (currently 13/8 with Ladbrokes & Coral), perhaps a points finish on home soil might take some pressure off him, but I keep thinking about that narrow stretch of tarmac around WELL DONE Baku's Old City, and whether he can keep it out of the walls for at least 46 laps.

€4 each on Sainz & Ricciardo to beat their teammates in qualifying @13/10 with 888.

Also, a cheeky 10c each-way long shot on Perez to take pole @200/1 with Coral (1/3 odds if he takes 2nd).

Some value picks for today in the Fastest Lap market: €4.50 on Bottas @4/1, €1.50 on Max @10/1 (both with 365) and 85c on Ricciardo @18/1 with William Hill.

Finally, €3 on Magnussen to beat the Toro Rossos and Hülkenburg @9/2, and €4.10 on Hülkenburg to do vice-versa @9/4 in Bet365's Group Betting market.

EDIT: I should have checked 888...they have Bottas @9/2 and Max @11/1 in the fastest lap market, it's just not listed on Oddschecker. :mad:

Anyway, I've put another €1 on Bottas to set the fastest lap and a McLaren to retire first @22/1 through #WhatOddsPaddy.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

First bet for WELL DONE Baku: €8 on Vettel to win the Azerbaijan GP @2/1 with William Hill. I just don't see Hamilton as an odds-on chance here. Granted, there was a Mercedes in the back of Bottas's Williams last year when he set the all-time record for highest speed trap reading in F1 at 378km/h down the 2.2km long pit straight, but this year's Merc has proven harder to set up than the Ferrari.

I'm on the fence at the moment over whether to bet on Lance Stroll to fail to finish (currently 13/8 with Ladbrokes & Coral), perhaps a points finish on home soil might take some pressure off him, but I keep thinking about that narrow stretch of tarmac around WELL DONE Baku's Old City, and whether he can keep it out of the walls for at least 46 laps.

*

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Some value picks for today in the Fastest Lap market: €4.50 on Bottas @4/1, €1.50 on Max @10/1 (both with 365) and 85c on Ricciardo @18/1 with William Hill.

Finally, €3 on Magnussen to beat the Toro Rossos and Hülkenburg @9/2, and €4.10 on Hülkenburg to do vice-versa @9/4 in Bet365's Group Betting market.

EDIT: I should have checked 888...they have Bottas @9/2 and Max @11/1 in the fastest lap market, it's just not listed on Oddschecker. :mad:

Anyway, I've put another €1 on Bottas to set the fastest lap and a McLaren to retire first @22/1 through #WhatOddsPaddy.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

One last bet: €2.50 on Vettel to DNF @6/1 with Coral. He's got an old engine in the back of his Ferrari, and that didn't work out so well for Bottas back in Spain.

This is going to sting: I had my finger hovering over Ricciardo to win @10/1 as soon as Hamilton had trouble with his headrest, but I thought Vettel wouldn't get slapped with a 10 second stop & go penalty. :mad:

On the bright side, Magnussen held off Sainz to win his group, as Hülkenburg and Kvyat retired.

€181.31
- €8.00 (Vettel to win)
- €5.50 (Bottas to set the fastest lap)
- €4.10 (Hülkenburg to win his group)
- €0.85 (Danny Ric to set the fastest lap)
- €2.50 (Vettel to retire)
- €3.00 (Magnussen to win his group)
=====
€157.36
+€16.50 (Magnussen finished 7th, ahead of Sainz in 8th)
=====
€173.86

25c each-way in-race bet on Kimball @66/1 with 365.

Rally Poland starts in about an hour, so I'll bet €6 on Thierry Neuville @5/2 and €3 on Ott Tanak @5/1 with SkyBet.

Their teams, Hyundai and M-Sport, have had great form on gravel rallies (the same surface as Poland's) this year. Tanak was denied a maiden WRC win last year with a brake failure, and although the cars are around 30% more powerful than last year's and have much more downforce, I don't think that will matter much as Tanak finally broke his duck last time out in Italy, another gravel rally.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Rally Poland starts in about an hour, so I'll bet €6 on Thierry Neuville @5/2 and €3 on Ott Tanak @5/1 with SkyBet.

Their teams, Hyundai and M-Sport, have had great form on gravel rallies (the same surface as Poland's) this year. Tanak was denied a maiden WRC win last year with a brake failure, and although the cars are around 30% more powerful than last year's and have much more downforce, I don't think that will matter much as Tanak finally broke his duck last time out in Italy, another gravel rally.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€1 each-way on Johann Zarco @33/1 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) in this weekend's German MotoGP with BoyleSports. Boyles' nearest rivals only offer 16/1, so this is just me taking advantage of the generous odds. Zarco has had just the one podium finish since moving up to the premier class this year, but he won the Moto2 race at the Sachsenring last year, and the year before that he was 2nd, only losing by less than a tenth of a second!

Zarco finished 9th, but at least Neuville won!

€170.36
- €9.00 (WRC bets)
- €2.00 (Zarco e/w)
======
€159.36
+€21.00 (Neuville won Rally Poland)
======
€180.36

Lewis Hamilton has just been slapped with a 5-place grid penalty for a gearbox change, so I'm putting €4 on Bottas each-way @11/2 with Boyles (1/3 odds for 2nd place) before the odds drop.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I think Hamilton's worth laying in qualifying, I've stuck €4.50 on Betfair Exchange at effective odds of 2.11/1 once their commission is taken into account.

Hamilton has given up after Grosjean stopped on the track. Today was a good day.

€180.36
+ €9.50 (Profit from laying Hamilton to take pole)
=====
€189.86

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€10 on either Haas to retire @13/10 with 888sport. They've struggled with brake reliability, and I think this is just the track (barring Montreal) to punish that.

Magnussen retires with a hydraulics failure. Unfortunately, Max got screwed over in a first-corner collision.

€189.86
+€13.00 (a Haas to retire)
- €6.00 (Verstappen to finish on the podium)
======
€196.86

Also, I'll have €4 on Vettel to win @4/1, I think the odds have shortened since I made this bet - personally I'm kicking myself for dithering when he was 6/1.

My first bet of the weekend: €6 on Verstappen to get a podium @11/4 with most bookies - in my case, it was Hills.

Next up, €6 on Ocon to finish top 6 @15/8 with Sky, 40c on him to finish on the podium @50/1 with Hills, and finally €1.50 on Perez to finish on the podium @16/1, also with Sky.

It looks like Paddy had good reason to "mess up", as Bottas has been hit by a 5-place penalty for a gearbox change. Despite that, he's rated around evens to finish on the podium anyway.

My final bets for the weekend: €4 on Vettel to win @10/3 with Ladbrokes, and €2 on him to take pole @11/2, also with Ladbrokes.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

My first bet of the weekend: €6 on Verstappen to get a podium @11/4 with most bookies - in my case, it was Hills.

Next up, €6 on Ocon to finish top 6 @15/8 with Sky, 40c on him to finish on the podium @50/1 with Hills, and finally €1.50 on Perez to finish on the podium @16/1, also with Sky.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Paddy Power have messed up: Bottas is 9/4 with them right now to finish top 3! I've put €12 on that, chances are that they'll void it, but hey, that's why they call it "gambling".

PopePalpatine wrote: »

It looks like Paddy had good reason to "mess up", as Bottas has been hit by a 5-place penalty for a gearbox change. Despite that, he's rated around evens to finish on the podium anyway.

My final bets for the weekend: €4 on Vettel to win @10/3 with Ladbrokes, and €2 on him to take pole @11/2, also with Ladbrokes.

Bottas saves the day, it was a shame Max couldn't stay out for another couple of laps to join him on the podium.

€220.81
- €6.00 (Verstappen to finish on the podium)
- €4.00 (Vettel to win)
- €6.00 (Ocon to finish top 6)
- €1.90 (either Force India to finish on the podium)
+€27.00 (Bottas to finish on the podium)
======
€229.91

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€2 on Jean-Eric Vergne in the New York ePrix in a minute or so @11/4 with Bet365.

That was dumb.

€229.91
- €2.00
=======
€227.91

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Last bet of the weekend: €1 e/w on Toronto's own James Hinchcliffe @16/1 with Bet365, with 1/4 odds for a podium finish.

Hinch comes third to ease the pain of betting on Vergne earlier.

€227.91
+ €5.00
======
€232.91

PopePalpatine wrote: »

75c e/w on Joey Logano @25/1 (1/4 odds for a top 4) with William Hill in tonight's Brickyard 400, I was just browsing the NASCAR subreddit for tips and his name cropped up the most.

EDIT: Also, 25c e/w on Ryan Newman @100/1, he was mentioned as a "dark horse" on /r/NASCAR too.

A podium for Newman and a 4th for Logano put me €9.93 up.

€232.91
+ €9.93
======
€242.84

PopePalpatine wrote: »

My first pick of the week (copied from the Racing Post :pac:) - €4 on Thierry Neuville to win Rally Finland @7/2 with Betsafe.

They're also offering bets on a drifting event in Latvia...which they're sponsoring, of course. :pac:

Onto the Hungarian GP, and I think Ricciardo is worth a €3 bet on a top 3 finish in the first practice session @2/1, along with €2 on Alonso to finish top 6 in the first practice session @2/1, both with Betsafe. IMHO, the Hungaroring is just the sort of track both Red Bull and McLaren need to hide the shortcomings of their power units.

Ricciardo tops the session to win me €9...and some regret for not believing in him more.

€242.84
+ €4.00 (profit from 1st practice)
======
€246.84

Hamilton has clicked. €8 on him to take pole @6/4 with Coral.

Also, €1 on each Red Bull @25/1 & 33/1 with SkyBet.

I've got €2.10 left in my Bet365 account after a **** day of football, so I'll stick €1.05 each-way on Felix Rosenqvist @13/2 (1/3 odds for 2nd) with Bet365 in the Montreal ePrix, which starts at 9pm.

€5 on Vettel to win the Hungarian GP & Hamilton to set the fastest lap @17/5 with #WhatOddsPaddy.

Also, €1 on Wehrlein & Grosjean to retire, Ricciardo to finish on the podium and Hülkenburg to score points @45/1 with Hills' #YourOdds.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

My first pick of the week (copied from the Racing Post :pac:) - €4 on Thierry Neuville to win Rally Finland @7/2 with Betsafe.

Neuville is about a minute-and-a-half off overall leader Lappi with only a 10km power stage left to go, this one's a write-off.

€234.74
- €4.00
======
€230.74

One last bet for Hungary - €2.50 on Bottas e/w @12/1 (1/3 odds for 2nd) with Betstars. I think he can get the jump on Raikkonen by starting on the cleaner side of the grid.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Time to re-invest that €9 from Betsafe in some dark horses in the points-scoring market: €4 on Kevin Magnussen @9/4, and €5 on Stoffel Vandoorne @33/20.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€5 on Vettel to win the Hungarian GP & Hamilton to set the fastest lap @17/5 with #WhatOddsPaddy.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

One last bet for Hungary - €2.50 on Bottas e/w @12/1 (1/3 odds for 2nd) with Betstars. I think he can get the jump on Raikkonen by starting on the cleaner side of the grid.

The Flying Waffle provides the only silver lining for this atrocious weekend.

€222.74
- €14.00
+ €8.25 (Stoffel finished 10th)
======
€216.99