Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Unless something spectacular happens I can't see snow until further into winter. Any cold air coming from the east would still be relatively mild at this time of year, not to mention the sea not having had time to cool off, especially after an extended run of warm weather. October and start of November were very mild.

Any snow lovers shouldn't be hoping for their favourite patterns this time of year anyway. Let the models constantly threaten only to be pushed back over and over until it gets deep into January and it finally happens.

It's times like these when we're better off ignoring the models and pay more attention to expert forecasters who have much more data than we do.

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

You're 100% right. but where's the fun in that

I agree. Watching the models is such a headache right now but it's too addictive! It's too hard not to look at them even though they are useless for now.

M.T.'s post in another Netweather thread in response to if his Winter thoughts have changed:

Yes, same thoughts, don't mind the slow development, the really good winters seem to make a strong move towards cold around 15-20 December.

North American pattern setting up about as expected also, so no red flags, just waiting to see how it unfolds now.

False starts on GFS are often mirror images of what eventually happens, I think they pick up on a tendency that some other energy cycle then overrules for the time being, but it's a tendency that will try its luck again.

John Hammond says there is a risk of more severe cold from mid-December onwards in his latest month ahead.

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Is there a link to that thread / post

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90634-winter-201819/?page=14

Captain Snow wrote: »

John Hammonds stuff is premium content. So I think you have to pay…..:(

No you don't, you just have to sign up an account. I have access to it.

sryanbruen wrote: »

M.T.'s post in another Netweather thread in response to if his Winter thoughts have changed:

Yes, same thoughts, don't mind the slow development, the really good winters seem to make a strong move towards cold around 15-20 December.

North American pattern setting up about as expected also, so no red flags, just waiting to see how it unfolds now.

False starts on GFS are often mirror images of what eventually happens, I think they pick up on a tendency that some other energy cycle then overrules for the time being, but it's a tendency that will try its luck again.

John Hammond says there is a risk of more severe cold from mid-December onwards in his latest month ahead.

Rosenallis on the edge of the Slieve Bloom had a good 4-5" of snow on 10th December last. Tullamore had an inch or two.
I feel snow in my bones. That's a dirty east wind already ðŸ˜

A summary of the long range seasonal models for Winter 2018-19.

ECMWF: Reversed from last month's update with a backloaded Winter being hinted at as blocking builds to the northwest of us by February bringing a cold end to the season. The start looks zonal and fairly mild.

CanSIPS: Lots of northern blocking throughout the Winter but perhaps too close to be delivering through cold conditions in December and January. February looks exceptionally cold however.

JAMSTEC: Usually by this stage, this model cancels its cold bias and begins to show mild temperatures for the Winter. However, the model has continued to show colder than average conditions for the UK & Ireland during Winter 2018-19.

Méteo-France: Much like the CanSIPS, this model shows plentiful northern blocking throughout the Winter and even going into Spring 2019 with a southerly tracking jet stream. Certainly looks cold with easterly or northeasterly winds being the dominant feature.

Glosea5: Well below average heights over Europe and above average heights over Greenland giving away to the possibility of frequent northeasterly/easterly winds. This is a cold Winter scenario and is a big flip on its previous updates.

IRI: Very similar to its last update with well above average temperature probability over Greenland and no signal over the UK & Ireland. Some parts of Europe going colder than average probability. This shows there is blocking up to the north bringing the winds in from an easterly direction. Again another cold Winter scenario.

JMA: Above average heights over Greenland with below average heights over Europe bringing the wind in from the east or northeast. Would likely be a lot of cold and snow conditions.

BCC: Above average heights stretching from Canada to Russia with below average heights in the Atlantic and parts of southern Europe. Mean wind direction would be easterly bringing in cold air from the continent.

CPTEC (Brazillian): Below average heights over southwestern Europe with above average heights to the east of Europe and to the north. This should be a cold Winter pattern but with the above average heights to the east of Europe, think it would prove more as a battleground than a straightforward cold Winter with lots of volatility.

CFSv2: Atlantic driven but not a clear cut mild signal as the jet stream is on somewhat of a southerly track with some northern blocking especially in January. Keep in mind that unlike the others named above which update monthly, this model updates daily so is prone to more chopping and changing.

So we have almost universal agreement from these long range models on Winter 2018-19 being blocked and cold, just slightly different positioning of the pressure systems which is key to how severe the season can get. Nevertheless, they're variations on the same theme.

MT on Netweather

I don't expect too much to happen before mid-December, very strong cold outflow into eastern North America this week will tend to put too much southward pressure on the jet stream in the western Atlantic to prevent a milder pattern from re-establishing in western Europe for a couple of weeks probably, after which I think a stronger blocking high is likely to develop and another retrograde episode this time drawing on more potent cold than the current easterly has to work with. Probably some really good winter synoptics eventually, patience advised though. Dec 19 to 24 period will be volatile and may feature a winter storm for at least some parts of the UK and Ireland, possibly a battleground scenario. Much colder to follow that.

Yeah just seen a large flash over the city a minute ago. Some serious amount of rain falling the last few hours as well.

I think a weather mod might need to learn the meteorological seasons

Horrible Autumn night out there but hopefully we’ll be looking at the radar again in a few weeks with the same activity but temps and dew point about 4c lower

Is anyone able to post a link to the cold spell badk in November 2009? Or was it 2010

sryanbruen wrote: »

It was November 2010 .

All the links are in my most recent posts in the useful links thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056531638&page=3

I keep forgetting to update it with general season discussions or other special threads! Must get down to it sometime like Christmas break.

After looking at that it feels like you wait to just fall asleep and wake up into a dream that we are back in that cold spell

MR PIGGY wrote: »

I'll bet my bottom dollar it was November 27th 2009 it started.

It was 27th November 2010.... I don't know where you keep getting 2009 from.