The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Nabber · 11-09-2014 9:09pm

There will be plenty of snow this year. I read it in a Canadian newspaper, Canadians don't lie.

Billcarson · 11-09-2014 9:11pm

Lucreto wrote: »

Had a good laugh at the other headlines.

The last thing we want is another cold US. We just get stuck with storm after storm and mild temperatures.

Well i suppose a cold U.S doesnt necessarily mean it will be like last winter for here anyway if they were to get a very cold winter. We just dont want the same set up with the PV to be located where it was for most of last winter which gave the eastern side of the U.S such a cold snowy winter. Winter 2009/10 was a cold winter over there too as it was over here for example.

Gonzo · 12-09-2014 11:25pm

Last winter was exceptional even for Ireland in terms of mild winter muck and relentless heavy rain and stormy conditions, I highly doubt we will see a repeat this winter for the entire winter season. At the very least we are bound to see more frost. Measurable snow is always a difficult one for Ireland considering we have the best location in the world this far north for snow to be marginal or non existent, but I would even bet we will see a few more flakes this winter than over the past 3 dismal winters.

Billcarson · 13-09-2014 9:48pm

Im no expert when it comes to teleconnections but one thing in our favour this winter will be a negative QBO, so a weaker PV compared to last winter is more likely. A strong positve QBO that we had last winter certainly did not help our cause. Of course there are other things to be considered but at least that is one thing in our favour for those hoping for a cold winter this year.

Nabber · 18-09-2014 2:01am

We will have an average winter. Couple of below zeros, rain, lows sweeping across the north west. Play the odds lads.

What i would love this year is some really dense fog. 2 mtr visibility.

LordNorbury · 18-09-2014 10:21am

When are we due our boards.ie authoritative winter forecast anyway?!?

Gonzo · 18-09-2014 12:29pm

bit early for winter forecasts, it still feels like mid July. We should hear something before the end of October. My money is on an average winter which in our case will mean a slightly cooler, less windy winter than last year. There should be at least a few quick glimses of snow. Not expecting anything remotely like winter 2009/2010.

Lucreto · 18-09-2014 2:42pm

LordNorbury wrote: »

When are we due our boards.ie authoritative winter forecast anyway?!?

It will be early November before we hear anything.

I am going for a cooler than average Winter with more in the way of frost than snow. After skipping Winter for the most part last year anything is an improvement.

tomcosgrave · 18-09-2014 7:32pm

If Bardarbunga in Iceland erupts in a big way and for a prolonged time in the next couple of months, I would say serious snow is a given for the winter. And it won't be at all pleasant either.

Calibos · 19-09-2014 6:50am

tomcosgrave wrote: »

If Bardarbunga in Iceland erupts in a big way and for a prolonged time in the next couple of months, I would say serious snow is a given for the winter. And it won't be at all pleasant either.

Not pleasant as in "Don't eat the grey gritty snow" ???

tomcosgrave · 19-09-2014 12:01pm

Not pleasant as there'll be loads and loads of it, more than has been seen since the 1960s I would say, and life will get very difficult.

power101 · 19-09-2014 2:54pm

tomcosgrave wrote: »

If Bardarbunga in Iceland erupts in a big way and for a prolonged time in the next couple of months, I would say serious snow is a given for the winter. And it won't be at all pleasant either.

Just a back of the envelope calculation but the amount of sulfur dioxide being released is as follows

400kg of SO2 per second. So thats 400*60*60*24=34,560,000 kg per day. The eruption has been going for 33 days now so that's 1.1 billion kg's of SO2 released so far or 1.1 million metric tonnes. This is still small in the scheme of things but if the eruption continues for several more months it could start to cause a change in our local climate.

piuswal · 20-09-2014 12:52am

power101 wrote: »

Just a back of the envelope calculation but the amount of sulfur dioxide being released is as follows

400kg of SO2 per second. So thats 400*60*60*24=34,560,000 kg per day. The eruption has been going for 33 days now so that's 1.1 billion kg's of SO2 released so far or 1.1 million metric tonnes. This is still small in the scheme of things but if the eruption continues for several more months it could start to cause a change in our local climate.

Any figures for the last Icelandic eruptions that caused so much flight disruptions?

The One Doctor · 20-09-2014 1:53pm

piuswal wrote: »

Any figures for the last Icelandic eruptions that caused so much flight disruptions?

An estimated 3000 tonnes of SO2 per day for around 70 days.

maquiladora · 20-09-2014 4:14pm

I've been looking over the records of significant snowfall events in Ireland during the 20th century to get an idea of how often and regularly they occur. These are individual significant snowfall events, not significant winters overall, you can have a snow event in the middle of an otherwise unexceptional winter.

In total there were 27 significant events spanning 16 different winter seasons. So on average that's a winter with a significant snowfall event every 6-7 years, but keep in mind some of those winters are back to back while others were separated by gaps of up to 15 years.

Irelandcool · 20-09-2014 10:58pm

Given the unusual extreme winter we had last year what is it looking this year I have no idea but perhaps someone here has heard of a forecast

derekon · 21-09-2014 9:08am

maquiladora wrote: »

I've been looking over the records of significant snowfall events in Ireland during the 20th century to get an idea of how often and regularly they occur. These are individual significant snowfall events, not significant winters overall, you can have a snow event in the middle of an otherwise unexceptional winter.

In total there were 27 significant events spanning 16 different winter seasons. So on average that's a winter with a significant snowfall event every 6-7 years, but keep in mind some of those winters are back to back while others were separated by gaps of up to 15 years.

A gap of 15 years?!!! - that is enough to drive any snow lover demented

D

rickdangerouss · 21-09-2014 9:29am

maquiladora wrote: »

I've been looking over the records of significant snowfall events in Ireland during the 20th century to get an idea of how often and regularly they occur. These are individual significant snowfall events, not significant winters overall, you can have a snow event in the middle of an otherwise unexceptional winter.

In total there were 27 significant events spanning 16 different winter seasons. So on average that's a winter with a significant snowfall event every 6-7 years, but keep in mind some of those winters are back to back while others were separated by gaps of up to 15 years.

Are you working for Paddy Power or something?

Tindie · 21-09-2014 4:29pm

I Being checking the updates on Weather outlook, Very week!

The fourth update increases the chances of snow falling on Christmas day in the south and reduces it for the north. The reason for this is recent trends perhaps pointing towards more anticyclonic conditions developing during the early part of the winter with a chance of colder continental incursions. In this type of set up southern and eastern areas would be most likely to see colder conditions and a chance of snow flurries.

Recent years have brought a range of weather during the festive season to the UK, and there have been some notable cold spells. This year at the present time background signals look fairly neutral but things could change during the autumn.

Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued
Update 4, 20/09/2014

The computer says [Issued 21/09/2014 12:46:39]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
Snow is expected in Wales
Snow is expected in the Midlands
Snow is expected in the north
Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
Snow is expected in Northern Ireland
Snow is expected in the Republic of Ireland
Snow is expected in the Netherlands

Also over at http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Winter
December
A very early look at December here, and at this point it should be considered very low confidence. Currently the forecasting model is suggesting high pressure to the north and in particular northeast of the UK which would translate to slightly cooler than average temperatures for England and Wales, closer to average in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Is that what happen in 2010?

Musicman2000 · 21-09-2014 6:37pm

Tindie wrote: »

I Being checking the updates on Weather outlook, Very week!

Also over at http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Is that what happen in 2010?

Afraid not it was northern blocking over greenland in 2010 , By sounds of the above its mid latitude block over Scandinavia

LordNorbury · 22-09-2014 11:56am

I swear I just saw a bit of Graupel at the red Cow roundabout!

:D:D

Tabnabs · 22-09-2014 12:31pm

More likely to be shrapnel in that part of Dublin...

Nabber · 23-09-2014 11:26pm

4 years on from 2010. Do ye think the snow tyres and bags of salt peddlers will make an appearance this year?

Lucreto · 24-09-2014 6:52am

Nabber wrote: »

4 years on from 2010. Do ye think the snow tyres and bags of salt peddlers will make an appearance this year?

I didn't see any last year and the usual places didn't even sell salt didn't get much of a supply.

The snow is waiting until we are completely unprepared to reappear.

SeaBreezes · 25-09-2014 1:15pm

Anyone know if extraordinary amounts of S02 having been released will affect weather in any way?

http://www.visir.is/iceland-releases-more-sulphur-than-all-of-europe-due-to-eruption/article/2014140929356

Elmer Blooker · 25-09-2014 2:29pm

Nabber wrote: »

4 years on from 2010. Do ye think the snow tyres and bags of salt peddlers will make an appearance this year?

I bought a big snow shovel in Lidl in 2011, three winters have come and gone - never used!

kstand · 25-09-2014 2:30pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Anyone know if extraordinary amounts of S02 having been released will affect weather in any way?

http://www.visir.is/iceland-releases-more-sulphur-than-all-of-europe-due-to-eruption/article/2014140929356

I cant say this for certain and I'm open to correction, but I recall seeing somewhere in 2010 that the vast number of particles in the atmosphere following the Eyjafjallajökull eruption would have contributed to the amount of snow that fell that winter - as snow forms in the atmosphere when water droplets freeze on to dust particles - so the more dust particles the more snowflakes - or something along those lines.

Tabnabs · 25-09-2014 2:32pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I bought a big snow shovel in Lidl in 2011, three winters have come and gone - never used!

I use mine for gathering up garden waste...

rat catcher · 25-09-2014 2:37pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I bought a big snow shovel in Lidl in 2011, three winters have come and gone - never used!

Plus 1

kstand · 25-09-2014 2:39pm

I'm waiting for the first person to analyse the charts into FI and then start pontificating about what might happen in 3 weeks time and use the immortal phrase "the building blocks are in place". And then for them to fall down.

Red Nissan · 25-09-2014 2:44pm

I was coming down on the side of no snow this winter, but we have a severely active eruption on going that today has been compared to the famous Vesuvius eruption almost two millennia ago.

The possibility of an even bigger eruption may cause an unforecast event.

stevire · 25-09-2014 4:35pm

UK Weather is predicting snow, get those PP bets on...

UK Winter 2014/15 Model Conclusion.

It’s hard to argue with that fact that most of the long range models are in some sort of agreement, that there will be a blocking event this winter. However, this pattern will not be dominant all winter, there will be breakdowns to milder conditions at times, although the transition will be difficult as cold air is notoriously difficult to displace. It may also be possible that the blocking set up will return, after any brief mild incursion.

So from what the seasonal forecast models are predicting, coupled with historical data, the conclusion at this moment in time, is that winter will indeed be colder than average. The pattern being predicted is likely to produce some lengthy cold periods, which will no doubt produce periods of snow.

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-winter-201415-weather-forecast-predictions/

Tabnabs · 25-09-2014 4:42pm

stevire wrote: »

which will no doubt produce periods of snow

uck51js9zml2yt · 25-09-2014 5:10pm

I still have my snow chains

tylercollins · 25-09-2014 5:40pm

stevire wrote: »

UK Weather is predicting snow, get those PP bets on...

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-winter-201415-weather-forecast-predictions/

So what's going to happen is the opposite lol

tylercollins · 25-09-2014 11:58pm

Well some of the long range forecasters are at it already.

Snippet taken from: http://goo.gl/w2VXy4

It appears that the famous Donegal postman ‘Michael Gallagher’ has called for heavy snowfalls affecting Ireland before Xmas – saying he is 99 percent sure that the country will see heavy falls of snow before Christmas and that Ireland will shiver soon, claiming that he has never seen so many berries on the trees – a thing which he claims among other things as a sure sign of a cold winter weather ahead. However, he stated that he does not think it will be as cold as the recent severe seasons.

Joe Bastardi of weatherbell.com, a well known and highly respected long range forecaster, among others, has said Ireland and the UK will see prolonged severe freezes this season. However, many forecasters have been skeptical – saying a mild winter season is on the way.

Lucreto · 26-09-2014 12:24am

stevire wrote: »

UK Weather is predicting snow, get those PP bets on...

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-winter-201415-weather-forecast-predictions/

And the rollercoaster begins.

tylercollins wrote: »

Well some of the long range forecasters are at it already.

Snippet taken from: http://goo.gl/w2VXy4

The postman is really early this year. It is usually late October before we hear anything.

I would love it to be a cold snowy Winter but it more than likely mainland Europe and we miss out again. I remember the picture from 2 years ago showing only Ireland green while the rest of Europe was white.

Calibos · 26-09-2014 3:24am

Think that was the year that Algeria/Tunisia/Turkey/Lebanon etc got snow. ie. Pretty much the whole Northern Hemisphere from North Africa North....except our little Oasis of green

ectoraige · 26-09-2014 10:34am

I'm thinking of visiting relatives in New York for Christmas 2018, can anybody tell me if Dublin Airport will be closed due to snow on the morning of the 23rd and if I might be better off looking into flights from Shannon? You'd think somebody would fly into Cork to take advantage of the snow shield, really. This is or course assuming the eastern seaboard of the US hasn't been devastated by the eruption of Cumbre Vieja, of course.

Thanks.

hatrickpatrick · 26-09-2014 4:52pm

ectoraige wrote: »

I'm thinking of visiting relatives in New York for Christmas 2018, can anybody tell me if Dublin Airport will be closed due to snow on the morning of the 23rd and if I might be better off looking into flights from Shannon? You'd think somebody would fly into Cork to take advantage of the snow shield, really. This is or course assuming the eastern seaboard of the US hasn't been devastated by the eruption of Cumbre Vieja, of course.

Thanks.

This is absurd, everyone knows 2018 is the year for the Campi Flegrei to erupt. The Cumbre Vieja has been bumped to 2020 after Yellowstone outrageously slipped a bribe to steal the 2019 spot.

Get your facts straight

Calibos · 26-09-2014 9:27pm

Have you guys integrated European Summer 2014 wild berry tonnage into your calculations for the Winter forecast?

jfSDAS · 26-09-2014 9:46pm

Well, we don't want to drop another one ... http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/25/goundhog-dies-bill-de-blasio-mayor-drop-zoo

Isn't that pic amazing ... "Sooooo, Phil, what's this about another 6 weeks of winter?"

Sam Kade · 26-09-2014 9:52pm

Scrappychimow wrote: »

Ok then, everyone that doubts my prediction pays 20 euro in November when there is a blanket of snow across the country :cool:

Only if you are prepared to pay the doubters €20 each if you are wrong

Alun · 29-09-2014 2:54pm

stevire wrote: »

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-winter-201415-weather-forecast-predictions/

FYI That picture is of Tan Hill Inn, the highest pub in England.

derekon · 04-10-2014 8:55am

Thanks for the daily forecasts MT - I think you usually issue your Ireland Winter Forecast around mid October? Do you think the Ireland Winter Forecast 2014/2015 will be issued over the coming weeks. Also, do you have any sneak previews in terms of "winter blasts"?

Thanks
D

Tindie · 05-10-2014 3:52pm

First snowfalls of the season on Scotland's high summits

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29490869

Well there bit of frost on cars this morning!, when I woke up

Scrappychimow · 05-10-2014 4:07pm

Sam Kade wrote: »

Only if you are prepared to pay the doubters €20 each if you are wrong

I will seriously

nelly17 · 06-10-2014 1:54pm

tylercollins wrote: »

Well some of the long range forecasters are at it already.

Snippet taken from: http://goo.gl/w2VXy4

But are the high amount of berries not symptomatic of the Mild Indian summer we have had - means nothing really

Missymoohaa · 06-10-2014 4:05pm

nelly17 wrote: »

But are the high amount of berries not symptomatic of the Mild Indian summer we have had - means nothing really

Came across this article from Nov. 16 2010, less that two weeks before the Big Freeze. It's mentions the bountiful berries, but is referring to Holly Berries. I myself noticed that we have an abundance of berries on our trees this year, so I'll be testing that old wives tale this year once and for all

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8135035/Holly-berries-suggest-harsh-winter-on-the-way.html

Spring Onion · 06-10-2014 4:58pm

I saw hailstones today in Galway. Very exciting!

The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

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