FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

BLIZZARD7 · 31-10-2020 4:45pm

US2 wrote: »

Sorry for being an idiot but loaded with potential for what?

Potential for the High to migrate to Greenland and send cold air down over us from the north like today's ECM is showing above ^

pauldry · 06-11-2020 12:14pm

God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes

JCX BXC · 06-11-2020 12:54pm

pauldry wrote: »

God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes

Yeah....it's only 2 and a half years since the Storm Emma of 2018......

highdef · 06-11-2020 1:32pm

pauldry wrote: »

God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes

But it's Autumn in November. Saying that the rest of November is looking mainly milder is a separate topic to that of the winter climate. Connected, yes, but I wouldn't directly associate November with a description of the upcoming winter weather which is yet to happen.

Slashermcguirk · 06-11-2020 1:59pm

Its hardly going to be snowing yet, its only 6th November! We dont tend to get colder weather until December. 2010 was the only exception i can think of and that was even latter half of November.

If we got really cold weather at this point, that would be very much the exception. Even New York has hit 22 degrees this week. Parts of France are still in the 20s.

pauldry wrote: »

God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes

Gonzo · 07-11-2020 3:36pm

a very mild to warm period for much of Europe over the next week to 10 days. Mid teens possible tomorrow and Monday in parts of Ireland and UK and mild trend stays right up to the end of November. Low to mid twenties possible across much of southern Europe over the next few days.

pad199207 · 07-11-2020 4:01pm

Gonzo wrote: »

a very mild to warm period for much of Europe over the next week to 10 days. Mid teens possible tomorrow and Monday in parts of Ireland and UK and mild trend stays right up to the end of November. Low to mid twenties possible across much of southern Europe over the next few days.

Perfect. If there’s definitely not a chance of any proper cold and snow well then exceptionally mild weather will do beautifully.

Gonzo · 07-11-2020 4:03pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Perfect. If there’s definitely not a chance of any proper cold and snow well then exceptionally mild weather will do beautifully.

no sign of any cold this November, infact we could end up with a warmer overall November than October if the trend continues right up to the end of the month.

nacho libre · 07-11-2020 4:40pm

This could work in our favour longer term if polar vortex is under duress due to the positioning of high and low pressure systems.
Perhaps this is what M.T. Cranium had in mind in his winter forecast when he spoke of a very mild but mainly dry start to Winter.
The UK Met Office is suggesting a colder outlook in early December. Also if i recall correctly a couple of weeks in November 2009 were very mild for the time of year before it turned colder

Golfwidow · 07-11-2020 4:44pm

Where is MT’s 2020-21 winter forecast please? I can’t find it!

esposito · 07-11-2020 5:11pm

Golfwidow wrote: »

Where is MT’s 2020-21 winter forecast please? I can’t find it!

From October 19th:

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.

esposito · 07-11-2020 5:19pm

nacho libre wrote: »

This could work in our favour longer term if polar vortex is under duress due to the positioning of high and low pressure systems.
Perhaps this is what M.T. Cranium had in mind in his winter forecast when he spoke of a very mild but mainly dry start to Winter.
The UK Met Office is suggesting a colder outlook in early December. Also if i recall correctly a couple of weeks in November 2009 were very mild for the time of year before it turned colder

Exactly what I was thinking. I am glad this exceptional mild period is happening now rather than December.

The UK Met Office outlook has been wrong many times before though when it forecasted colder conditions. So I tend to ignore their outlooks now.

For what it’s worth, the Donegal postman thinks we will have quite cold conditions around Christmas and said there is a high chance of snow close to Christmas Day if it doesn’t fall on the day itself...

mcburns07 · 07-11-2020 7:40pm

esposito wrote: »

For what it’s worth, the Donegal postman thinks we will have quite cold conditions around Christmas and said there is a high chance of snow close to Christmas Day if it doesn’t fall on the day itself...

Hopefully you're being sarcastic here, his thoughts aren't worth a fart.

Golfwidow · 08-11-2020 12:33am

esposito wrote: »

From October 19th:

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.

Thank you

US2 · 08-11-2020 6:24am

mcburns07 wrote: »

Hopefully you're being sarcastic here, his thoughts aren't worth a fart.

Not to be disrespectful to any of the forcasters here, MT included, but nobody's thoughts about December or January are worth a fart.

Oneiric 3 · 08-11-2020 11:42am

nacho libre wrote: »

This could work in our favour longer term if polar vortex is under duress due to the positioning of high and low pressure systems.
Perhaps this is what M.T. Cranium had in mind in his winter forecast when he spoke of a very mild but mainly dry start to Winter.
The UK Met Office is suggesting a colder outlook in early December. Also if i recall correctly a couple of weeks in November 2009 were very mild for the time of year before it turned colder

Was watching the US forecaster last night and he mentions something about the 'QBO'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXg0srzblgk

(go to 9mins)

UScentric naturally, but he did mention that a westerly QBO, which is forecast for this coming winter, tends to favour an enhanced Polar Vortex more often than not. We'll see one way or the other.

Meteorite58 · 08-11-2020 8:33pm

The LP train continues out to +240hrs Ireland being in the battleground between HP and LP , high rainfall accumulations showing up the last few runs.

Meteorite58 · 13-11-2020 12:37pm

Change on the cards???

A departure form Southern Atlantic sourced weather with the Euro High being eroded and looks like the Azores High might not take a hold as was being hinted at on earlier runs. .Signs of a cooling down from around the middle of next week or so from the main models . ECM in particular looking colder from Arctic sourced airmass and would possibly introduce wintry precipitation on higher ground in Northern counties perhaps, maybe sleety stuff with a few white caps but have to be cautious and would need to see similar charts over the next couple of days to be anyway certain. These colder charts often or maybe more so get a bit moderated to being not as cold over a few runs, but of course can get colder also. A new weather pattern incoming??? More interesting than what we have at present anyway.

KingdomRushed · 13-11-2020 12:57pm

Nothing mild showing on the GFS run this morning in my opinion. No severe cold, but very northerly outlook. Biting winds through November.

Meteorite58 · 14-11-2020 12:53pm

Looking a t the last couple of runs it would look like there is a shift towards cooler weather but with a mix of warmer fronts going through. Does not look like getting overly cold at this stage, maybe a good frost towards the end of the week. Source of cold coming down from the N around Thurs /Fri but shifting in off the Atlantic from air sourced from Canada and Greenland after that. Bit of a spread in the models regarding the positioning of LP's which will determine wind strength and rainfall amounts. Lot of mixed weather it would seem , cool, breezy/ windy at times, periods of rain and showers, hail showers, maybe a bit thundery at times, dryer interludes but overall staying on the unsettled side would think.

Cold nights with frost over next weekend.

Northern half of the country might ight wake up to a few white mountain caps Fri morning and a hard frost.

pauldry · 19-11-2020 12:10pm

Just to ramp up this thread so someone might post some charts it is trending a bit colder towards the last week of November. Could be frost, hail, sleet?

bazlers · 19-11-2020 3:51pm

20ft snow drifts this winter

Danno · 19-11-2020 11:30pm

Basically, the models are having some love-hate affair with cold weather prospects in early December. Some of this was mentioned in the Search for the first snow of Winter 2020-2021 thread. On todays 12z (Midday) run there were subtle hints of the roaring Atlantic low-pressure train halting to high pressure building to the north of Scotland... the 18z run is coming out now and it will be interesting to see if these signals are still there.

Artane2002 · 19-11-2020 11:51pm

Danno wrote: »

Basically, the models are having some love-hate affair with cold weather prospects in early December. Some of this was mentioned in the Search for the first snow of Winter 2020-2021 thread. On todays 12z (Midday) run there were subtle hints of the roaring Atlantic low-pressure train halting to high pressure building to the north of Scotland... the 18z run is coming out now and it will be interesting to see if these signals are still there.

the GFS 18z says cold zonal so far and it's looking very wet (possibly sleety at times especially on high ground).

pauldry · 20-11-2020 9:00am

Bloody 00z is now breezier and more mobile with little or no frost. A few 5 to 8c days but nights will also be about 2 to 4c as it's too breezy plus it will be 8 to 11c most days.

Meteorite58 · 20-11-2020 11:10am

A mix bag from + 120hrs, no clear pattern but does look to mostly come in off the Atlantic but influenced by Canada and Greenland at times. On the cooler side with alternating cold and milder interludes, neither very cold or very mild, next Weds to Fri looks cool from the 3 main models . ECM wetter than the GFS and the ECM, showing some stormy weather around Sat 28th which MT alluded to in his forecast , difference in the models as not shown by the GFS.

Captain Snow · 21-11-2020 12:26pm

OMG

:eek::eek::eek::eek:

Arctic Unleashed

hatrickpatrick · 21-11-2020 2:33pm

Ah lads

Meteorite58 · 21-11-2020 9:08pm

ECM showing colder weather + 120 hrs . Lots of cold nights with frost potential and quite wet at times, showing sleet potential also , might be seeing our first icy roads if these charts verify but as we have seen they have got downgraded quite a bit recently nearer to the time.

Purely for the craic, first bit of snow from the ECM . Might disappear though as quick as the storm it was showing a few runs ago for next weekend

:D

Gonzo · 21-11-2020 9:46pm

GFS getting cooler as well in the final days of the month and into the first week of December. Nothing that cold on offer but cold rain and sleety precipitation a possibility.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-11-21&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-11-21&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

temperatures by the end of the end of month no more than 5 or 6C during the day.

168-580UK.GIF?21-12

Not totally sold on this cooler trend yet, could easily flip back to mild south-westerlies.

Meteorite58 · 26-11-2020 2:14pm

What if ?

As mentioned by MT an interesting if somewhat unreliable run this morning showing a LP system developing around Biscay on the 4th. GFS lets it drift into Europe while the ECM deepens it to a potential storm and sends it up towards and in over Ireland. Windy on coasts but the most interesting outcome is this system running into very cold air over Ireland and dropping a large amount of snow a sort of sneaky beast maybe

. Possibly blizzard like if a set up like this happened.

This set of charts could be just a one off wonder , big outlier, and not even feature on the next run but as it presents on this run to me it is meteorological beauty, a perfect storm so to speak, it would no doubt be disruptive but of huge interest to the weather community I'm sure but also of course not to get carried away either , as ever a lot of wheels would need to turn in the right direction for this to happen as presently shown.

FI is always a tricky and sometimes futile domain in which to try and foresee various weather potential and especially in this time of so little data input due to Covid but it is always interesting when there is a hint of an event.

Will see what comes up on the next runs .

M.T. Cranium · 26-11-2020 3:02pm

Yes, I was wondering what you model watchers would make of that chart, I don't think it has any real chance of happening as shown but the idea of a low moving up from the south instead of staying down around Iberia makes some sense, no strong signals for any wintry outcome yet, could rather easily transition into some sort of cold zonality with the usual marginal snow on hills.

As shown that would be a catastrophic storm for Britain especially areas around the Severn estuary, south Wales. Timing very similar to the 1703 storm which was Nov 25-26 old style, or around 8 Dec in Gregorian calendar.

Would not want to be seeing that on a more reliable time frame. Think it would be a pretty wild mixture of precip and wind fields over Ireland, from the looks of the day ten output the centre tracks through Ulster to get to where it ends up.

nacho libre · 26-11-2020 5:10pm

That will be likely be gone on subsequent output, it's an outlier. I wonder are we seeing the early hints of a warming in the stratosphere? We seem a long way from a return to raging zonality going by the hemisphere profile, but of course that can change rather quickly.

nacho libre · 26-11-2020 8:08pm

Well the latest ECM still has that low, albeit a bit more diluted. Looks like a cold, wet and windy day. There could be snow in the Wicklow area. If so i expect an imminent return to this forum;)

Meteorite58 · 26-11-2020 8:45pm

Yeah still showing a low but not as deep and further E over the UK. Still showing a cold airmass and got the look of cooling down more in general as we move into winter proper. It will feel a bit more seasonal if anything.

Still early days , no doubt we will be seeing a variety of scenario's over the coming days, will se if it keeps that general look.

pauldry · 27-11-2020 11:18am

Joanna said on Radio1 "becoming very cold late next week"

Humberto Salazar · 27-11-2020 3:56pm

pauldry wrote: »

Joanna said on Radio1 "becoming very cold late next week"

In these times that's probably about 6-8c by day...

pauldry · 27-11-2020 4:18pm

Yup even the Arctic JAXA extent is down by 4k today. If that cant freeze what chance do we have. 6 to 8c is probably what it will be.

Meteorite58 · 27-11-2020 9:49pm

In my opinion ECM keeping it's general shape from +120 hrs. Unsettled, cold with wintry showers, would not rule out snow on elevated ground at times especially night. Windy at times and a new deep area of LP making an appearance at the end of the run. A lot of NW and Nly sourced air. Currently showing some frosts, possibly hard in places , has the look of getting down quite low. Going to stick my neck out an say that snow should be not ruled out, maybe wet lower down in places but could see some lying on hills.

Would have thought that the 12Z was an upgrade regarding cold. And with wind at times could get very low wind chill readings.

Gets more interesting I reckon.

Hooter23 · 28-11-2020 8:42pm

Cold coming down from the north next week then its shows the pattern after that changing and cold starting to come in from the east/north east into the second week of December...too early to tell yet but it is possible...we often get a short few days of cold coming down from the north followed by a longer spell of cold from a more easterly direction not long after...we'll see sure

Humberto Salazar · 28-11-2020 9:13pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Cold coming down from the north next week then its shows the pattern after that changing and cold starting to come in from the east/north east into the second week of December...too early to tell yet but it is possible...we often get a short few days of cold coming down from the north followed by a longer spell of cold from a more easterly direction not long after...we'll see sure

Looks likely. Long term though, no cold pool to tap into, Scandi and Europe still too warm.

Nqp15hhu · 28-11-2020 9:14pm

It’s only November. Give it time, it will snow eventually as it does most years.

nacho libre · 28-11-2020 10:05pm

I would not say it's likely until it's within t 48. We have seen easterly vanish in previous years even within that time frame

As regards the continent being too warm,If a proper easterly or northeasterly source is established it won't take long for the continent to cool down, but given our location it would be better if the cold air was already in place.

JanuarySnowstor · 28-11-2020 10:24pm

Icon a slight upgrade again out to 120hrs

We are on the cusp of something special
A slight nudge would do it!!

Captain Snow · 28-11-2020 10:53pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Icon a slight upgrade again out to 120hrs

We are on the cusp of something special
A slight nudge would do it!!

Cusp...love it...what we are seeing is a 2010 developing before our eyes. It's a classic. Cold is pooling in the east. It's either a brutal cold northerly, a easterly...beast...or both. The Atlantic is shutting off run after run and its showing accross other models.

pauldry · 28-11-2020 11:48pm

It will get very cold next week but I feel all the parameters will not be in place for any real snow. Still a messy mixture is likely though some heavier spells may whiten the place for brief moments.

After a brief Easterly incursion it will go back to mild again up to Christmas

Cork2021 · 28-11-2020 11:50pm

Is Kermit going to jump ship from covid related issues and go back to his roots this week??

mcburns07 · 29-11-2020 12:00am

pauldry wrote: »

It will get very cold next week but I feel all the parameters will not be in place for any real snow. Still a messy mixture is likely though some heavier spells may whiten the place for brief moments.

After a brief Easterly incursion it will go back to mild again up to Christmas

Much too early to say what will happen after the upcoming cold spell (if that even materialises)

White Clover · 29-11-2020 12:01am

Cork2021 wrote: »

Is Kermit going to jump ship from covid related issues and go back to his roots this week??

Hopefully not! Another 2010 is a sheep farmers worst nightmare.

lostweekend3 · 29-11-2020 12:22am

pauldry wrote: »

It will get very cold next week but I feel all the parameters will not be in place for any real snow. Still a messy mixture is likely though some heavier spells may whiten the place for brief moments.

After a brief Easterly incursion it will go back to mild again up to Christmas

How can you say that with such confidence. Nobody knows what the weather will be like at Christmas.

Looking at the charts the last few days, the upcoming cold blast from the north/northwest looks nailed on but I agree it will be a wintry mix given the modification from atlantic. Still expect to see a fair amount of snow over hills and mountains. Donegal, Mayo and Sligo could do very well out of this.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST