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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Summer 2020 is thankfully over now and we are in Autumn, a transitional season between Summer and Winter.

I think we could be in for a fairly average to good September overall, it is likely to be an improvement over much of the summer as there will be more dryer days with rainfall every few days rather than every single day. There is a lot of scatter involved with the weather over the next 2 weeks but there are certainly some warm signals showing with signs that we may get a settled spell at some stage this month.

Next Week may settled down with a gentle spell of sunny spells and temperatures reaching possibly high teens to low twenties. However this spell still has to be nailed down including it's duration, could last for a day or two, but it could also last close to a week.

it is possible that this spell of high pressure could end with a rather cool spell from the north or the Atlantic rolling back in.

It doesn't look like this September is going to be a scene of major disappointment like July and August were.

My wish for this Autumn is for things to settle down a few times and dry out the ground as I do not want to see a repeat of last Autumn's relentless deluges.

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Meteorite58

The turn of the GFS to bring the remnants close to us around next Tues/ Weds whilst the ECM on the last run backs off . Plenty of twists and turns to come yet. GFS goes on to show a disturbed pattern.

Met Eireann quite bullish this far out ' TUESDAY: The remnants of Hurricane Epsilon will impact upon our shores during the midweek period. Scattered blustery heavy showers are expected on Tuesday, along with fresh to strong and gusty southerly winds. Wet and very windy or stormy after dark, in strong to gale force and gusty south to southwest winds. The rain will turn thundery at times with the risk of hail. Highest temperatures 11 to 14 degrees Celsius.

WEDNESDAY: Sustained high winds and frequent showers are expected with the ongoing risk of hail and embedded thunderstorms. Highest temperatures 9 to 12 degrees Celsius.

ECM and GFS very different out at +240 hrs, GFS producing a deep storm and ECM building HP and introducing mild Southerlies.

HIRES not as strong as previous runs

Meteorite58

Charts showing a very strong Jet over or near us out to +240hrs, quite a few fast moving LP's showing up that could bring windy and wet weather at times, main models currently show it to be quite unsettled around Thurs and over next weekend. Getting milder in general for a few days at the end of the week.

ECM showing Atlantic coastal counties getting high rainfall accumulations.

Lot of Southerly sourced airflow.

Meteorite58

From Met Eireann :

LATEST FARMING COMMENTARY

Forecast issued at: Sunday 25th October 2020 15:00

Weather conditions over the next 7 days will be very unsettled, with above normal rainfall expected almost everywhere with good portions of the country expected to see between 200 and 300% of average. The east will be marginally drier overall but 150% of norm is still expected.

Some very wet days coming up the following week especially along Atlantic coastal counties and the Western side of the country as it is all coming in off the Atlantic, Mountain areas looking exceptionally wet . The weekend coming looks very wet. Tentative signs of Hp building after next weekend from the ECM. GFS showing it to be still disturbed first few days of Nov before ridge builds. Will see.

Sat 31st

ECMWF

pW9OtE2.png?1

Sunday 1st

a28dJMm.png?2

BLIZZARD7

Hints of something cooler developing on this mornings ECM and GFS in the extended range. Interesting Arctic High building on the ECM - possible Greeny high coming after these charts? Something to keep an eye on anyway.

Day 9

ECH1-216.GIF?26-12

Day 10

Meteorite58

A few days of HP would be welcome next week.

GFS not as good.

BLIZZARD7

Still miles out in FI but I really like the way the ECM and to some extent the GFS in deep FI are trending - Watch for Height rises to our North/North West to show up in the coming days.

Loaded with potential here -

ECH1-240.GIF?27-0

US2

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Still miles out in FI but I really like the way the ECM and to some extent the GFS in deep FI are trending - Watch for Height rises to our North/North West to show up in the coming days.

Loaded with potential here -

Sorry for being an idiot but loaded with potential for what?

Supercell

US2 wrote: »

Sorry for being an idiot but loaded with potential for what?

Hint's in the posters name

konman

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2020103000/gemnh-0-240.png?00

if only

BLIZZARD7

Blocked is definitely the Theme in FI on the ECM and GFS today - Still day 9/10 before things look interesting but looking very likely we will atleast have a settled seasonal spell with the day 10 means showing a big High pressure over Ireland/The UK.

ECM operational is a thing of beauty with a Greeny high and a nice cold pool to our north about to drop south-

BLIZZARD7

US2 wrote: »

Sorry for being an idiot but loaded with potential for what?

Potential for the High to migrate to Greenland and send cold air down over us from the north like today's ECM is showing above ^

pauldry

God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes

JCX BXC

pauldry wrote: »

God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes

Yeah....it's only 2 and a half years since the Storm Emma of 2018......

highdef

pauldry wrote: »

God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes

But it's Autumn in November. Saying that the rest of November is looking mainly milder is a separate topic to that of the winter climate. Connected, yes, but I wouldn't directly associate November with a description of the upcoming winter weather which is yet to happen.

Slashermcguirk

Its hardly going to be snowing yet, its only 6th November! We dont tend to get colder weather until December. 2010 was the only exception i can think of and that was even latter half of November.

If we got really cold weather at this point, that would be very much the exception. Even New York has hit 22 degrees this week. Parts of France are still in the 20s.

pauldry wrote: »

God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes

Gonzo

a very mild to warm period for much of Europe over the next week to 10 days. Mid teens possible tomorrow and Monday in parts of Ireland and UK and mild trend stays right up to the end of November. Low to mid twenties possible across much of southern Europe over the next few days.

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

a very mild to warm period for much of Europe over the next week to 10 days. Mid teens possible tomorrow and Monday in parts of Ireland and UK and mild trend stays right up to the end of November. Low to mid twenties possible across much of southern Europe over the next few days.

Perfect. If there’s definitely not a chance of any proper cold and snow well then exceptionally mild weather will do beautifully.

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

Perfect. If there’s definitely not a chance of any proper cold and snow well then exceptionally mild weather will do beautifully.

no sign of any cold this November, infact we could end up with a warmer overall November than October if the trend continues right up to the end of the month.

nacho libre

This could work in our favour longer term if polar vortex is under duress due to the positioning of high and low pressure systems.
Perhaps this is what M.T. Cranium had in mind in his winter forecast when he spoke of a very mild but mainly dry start to Winter.
The UK Met Office is suggesting a colder outlook in early December. Also if i recall correctly a couple of weeks in November 2009 were very mild for the time of year before it turned colder

Golfwidow

Where is MT’s 2020-21 winter forecast please? I can’t find it!

esposito

Golfwidow wrote: »

Where is MT’s 2020-21 winter forecast please? I can’t find it!

From October 19th:

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.

esposito

nacho libre wrote: »

This could work in our favour longer term if polar vortex is under duress due to the positioning of high and low pressure systems.
Perhaps this is what M.T. Cranium had in mind in his winter forecast when he spoke of a very mild but mainly dry start to Winter.
The UK Met Office is suggesting a colder outlook in early December. Also if i recall correctly a couple of weeks in November 2009 were very mild for the time of year before it turned colder

Exactly what I was thinking. I am glad this exceptional mild period is happening now rather than December.

The UK Met Office outlook has been wrong many times before though when it forecasted colder conditions. So I tend to ignore their outlooks now.

For what it’s worth, the Donegal postman thinks we will have quite cold conditions around Christmas and said there is a high chance of snow close to Christmas Day if it doesn’t fall on the day itself...

[Deleted User]

esposito wrote: »

For what it’s worth, the Donegal postman thinks we will have quite cold conditions around Christmas and said there is a high chance of snow close to Christmas Day if it doesn’t fall on the day itself...

Hopefully you're being sarcastic here, his thoughts aren't worth a fart.

Golfwidow

esposito wrote: »

From October 19th:

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.

Thank you

US2

mcburns07 wrote: »

Hopefully you're being sarcastic here, his thoughts aren't worth a fart.

Not to be disrespectful to any of the forcasters here, MT included, but nobody's thoughts about December or January are worth a fart.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

This could work in our favour longer term if polar vortex is under duress due to the positioning of high and low pressure systems.
Perhaps this is what M.T. Cranium had in mind in his winter forecast when he spoke of a very mild but mainly dry start to Winter.
The UK Met Office is suggesting a colder outlook in early December. Also if i recall correctly a couple of weeks in November 2009 were very mild for the time of year before it turned colder

Was watching the US forecaster last night and he mentions something about the 'QBO'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXg0srzblgk

(go to 9mins)

UScentric naturally, but he did mention that a westerly QBO, which is forecast for this coming winter, tends to favour an enhanced Polar Vortex more often than not. We'll see one way or the other.

Meteorite58

The LP train continues out to +240hrs Ireland being in the battleground between HP and LP , high rainfall accumulations showing up the last few runs.

Meteorite58

Change on the cards???

A departure form Southern Atlantic sourced weather with the Euro High being eroded and looks like the Azores High might not take a hold as was being hinted at on earlier runs. .Signs of a cooling down from around the middle of next week or so from the main models . ECM in particular looking colder from Arctic sourced airmass and would possibly introduce wintry precipitation on higher ground in Northern counties perhaps, maybe sleety stuff with a few white caps but have to be cautious and would need to see similar charts over the next couple of days to be anyway certain. These colder charts often or maybe more so get a bit moderated to being not as cold over a few runs, but of course can get colder also. A new weather pattern incoming??? More interesting than what we have at present anyway.

KingdomRushed

Nothing mild showing on the GFS run this morning in my opinion. No severe cold, but very northerly outlook. Biting winds through November.

Meteorite58

Looking a t the last couple of runs it would look like there is a shift towards cooler weather but with a mix of warmer fronts going through. Does not look like getting overly cold at this stage, maybe a good frost towards the end of the week. Source of cold coming down from the N around Thurs /Fri but shifting in off the Atlantic from air sourced from Canada and Greenland after that. Bit of a spread in the models regarding the positioning of LP's which will determine wind strength and rainfall amounts. Lot of mixed weather it would seem , cool, breezy/ windy at times, periods of rain and showers, hail showers, maybe a bit thundery at times, dryer interludes but overall staying on the unsettled side would think.

Cold nights with frost over next weekend.

Northern half of the country might ight wake up to a few white mountain caps Fri morning and a hard frost.