Advertisement
If you have a new account but can't post, please email Niamh on [email protected] for help to verify your email address. Thanks :)
New AMA with a US police officer (he's back!). You can ask your questions here

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 01-09-2020 12:19pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

    If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

    Thanks



    Summer 2020 is thankfully over now and we are in Autumn, a transitional season between Summer and Winter.

    I think we could be in for a fairly average to good September overall, it is likely to be an improvement over much of the summer as there will be more dryer days with rainfall every few days rather than every single day. There is a lot of scatter involved with the weather over the next 2 weeks but there are certainly some warm signals showing with signs that we may get a settled spell at some stage this month.

    Next Week may settled down with a gentle spell of sunny spells and temperatures reaching possibly high teens to low twenties. However this spell still has to be nailed down including it's duration, could last for a day or two, but it could also last close to a week.

    GFSOPEU06_153_1.png

    it is possible that this spell of high pressure could end with a rather cool spell from the north or the Atlantic rolling back in.

    GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

    It doesn't look like this September is going to be a scene of major disappointment like July and August were.

    My wish for this Autumn is for things to settle down a few times and dry out the ground as I do not want to see a repeat of last Autumn's relentless deluges.


«13456

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    After being under the influence of HP next week ( well on the edge of them anyway ) the ECM turns up the Jet close to us and the forecast becomes predominantly under the influence of LP systems +120 hrs with a few deep Lows showing up near to us. Not too much rain showing up earlier next week ( heaviest totals mostly confined to Atlantic coasts in the W and NW over high ground ) , goes on to show quite wet weather next weekend.


    p96rHrH.gif


    qyw7q0Y.gif


    rLrvHnt.gif


    434rsTW.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 502 ✭✭✭ Wine Goddess


    Thanks so much for this Meteorite58 and Gonzo I really love these posts and I have missed them! I always learn a lot from your commentary. I know I'm off topic but just wanted to express my appreciation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,106 ✭✭✭ cute geoge


    I also want to thank Meteorite58 and Gonzo for there excellent reports during the summer .I am a farmer and with their reports I made all my silage in the fine weather windows we got in July and August .Another 2nd cut to be done in the coming week hopefully ,this is off marshy ground which was waterlogged up to last week but hopefully I will be able to get it done by Wed or Thursday .It makes all the difference to get this work done in the dry spells so thanks again for all yer forecasts!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Thanks meteorite is there any storms on the way on those charts


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    No great expert , just a hobbyist with a keen interest but thanks for the kind words.
    Thanks meteorite is there any storms on the way on those charts

    ECM on the 0z run does show a deep storm smack straight into the SW/W bringing strong winds across the country Sat night into Sunday morning but it was far higher off the N on the last run so would expect some chopping and changing for a bit yet. GFS on the latest run now showing a system at the same time but not as strong and further N. No sign of it on the GEM as yet.

    ECM continues to show it very wet over the coming weekend and quite cool, certainly will be no doubt that it is Autumn. Unsettled weather with other LP's and waves knocking about

    31yRg8q.gif

    8Gpgk4H.gif


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Big early cold plunge down though Canada and the US next week could be the reason for the Jet firing up so much, dont know how long it will affect our weather but looking unsettled on the GFS well out into the run and in general keep the temperatures cool.


    FmQz2sl.gif


    uuendnU.gif


    zDR47Z2.gif


    qg4bbBy.gif

    anim_clt3.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A different look again on the ECM 12Z with the low much further South on this run and a deep low up off the NW later Sunday/ early Monday. Take some time to settle down especially with such a fast Jet close by.

    3XRMaNK.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM for the last two runs has backed off the very unsettled weather it was showing for next weekend and a lot less rain also. Showing HP over Europe keeping the Atlantic Low well off the coast close to Iceland . GFS still a bit windy around Saturday and wet . Nights getting cool next week, ECM going on to show warmer weather Mon , Tues, Weds week. Still not there with anything reliable yet. ICON showing a deep low near Ireland during the weekend, UKMO seems to be keeping the LP's well off the NW.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Hp dominating out to +240hrs, very little rain forecast in these charts

    Showing pleasantly mild days for many with cooler nights developing towards the end of the run.

    No doubt with so much Tropical storm activity happening at the moment it only takes some remnants to stray this way to throw the charts into disarray but no sign of that at present.



    rZGQkMu.gif


    5pvSlis.gif


    Rw8SGYC.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 0z showing some very unsettled weather from next Tuesday, shows it stormy in fact but will it be there on the next 12z run out later?

    Met Éireann mentioning it possibly turning unsettled around mid week.


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    GEM also turning very unsettled later next week.

    GEMOPEU00_228_1.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM showing it fairly wet from midweek but not showing the very strong winds it was showing earlier, does show LP's knocking about but not nearly as deep on this run. GFS is showing some very windy weather at the end of next week but way to early to know will this happen, the main thing is that the signals are there for some unsettled weather. Currently looking cooler next week also with signs of some very cool nights. Will we see frosts inland ?




    OKSSd6s.gif


    TgsT6e0.gif


    9spkbz9.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looks mostly dry until next Tuesday when all models show frontal rain crossing the country. A reintroduction to LP's but nothing too windy showing up as yet. Looks to become increasingly wet and cooler from around next Tues/ Weds and the models continue to show some quite cool nights.

    ECU1-144_duo3.GIF

    anim_zxj5.gif

    anim_gep9.gif

    anim_vuf5.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    a real taste of autumn could be on the way in a week's time with temperatures tumbling as winds potentially swing into the north.

    A big change could be on the way as this very warm September could end on a very chilly note.

    Currently we have +10 uppers across the country and by the end of next week we could have uppers close to -4C, this would definitely the first hard frost of the season and cold rain showers. Wouldn't be surprised to see some wintry conditions in the Scottish highlands if this pans out.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-09-17&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    GFSOPEU06_225_2.png


    Daytime temperatures into single digits in northern half of the country a possibility

    GFSOPUK06_225_5.png

    Temperatures by night possibly getting down to 0C
    GFSOPUK06_237_5.png

    snowfall possible in Scottish highlands.
    GFSOPUK06_240_25.png

    After this there is the possibility of high pressure establishing leading to some very chilly nights as well.

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    GEM also going for the cold plunge with a Greenland high possibly setting up shop.

    GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

    Icon looks very similar too:

    ICOOPEU12_180_1.png

    This mornings ECM going for it too and this evenings ECM is now rolling out so in a bit we shall see what the ECM makes of it.

    If this verifies it brings summer to a very definite end and into Autumn proper with shades of winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    Why is it never December when charts like this appear :D:D:D I presume at this time of year all we'll get from such a setup is bitterly cold mucky rain?

    I wonder if this is at all related to the ongoing SST anomaly, which as myself and Sryan mentioned in the Winter thread is currently analogous to both 2017 and 2010 which both contained strong Northern Blocking events in their Winters - although also bearing a strong resemblance to 2013, which IIRC was just horribly wet and stormy for us.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    ECM going for it too this evening but it's rather short lived with high pressure not far away.

    The cold does looks potent with temperatures between 4 and 6C below average for the time of year. Imagine if we got this in late December or early January.

    ECMOPEU12_216_1.png

    ECMOPEU12_216_34.png

    Autumn certainly looks like it's going to bite for a few days.

    It's possible that once this get's out of the way we end up with an area of high pressure and some frosty nights to start off October. However as the Polar Vortex is getting going and zonality is enhanced we will probably bring back the Atlantic proper from October instead.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yeah as Gonzo said above models seem to be locking on now to a considerable cold plunge the second half of next week with signs of possible brief ridging at the end of the weekend or thereabouts but no certainty of this. Currently showing temps generally in the 10 to 15C range by day and some very low temps at night making frost possible in sheltered areas. Could be a stiff Northerly component to the wind later next week so giving an added chill at times especially in coastal areas. Extra quilts, jumpers, jackets and the like to be got ready it looks like, certainly will give no doubt that summer is over.

    It has the look of an abrupt change in the seasons.

    TeaYQx1.gif

    nf6QkOR.gif


    YI6BeIR.gif

    TR5IUfv.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,375 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Yeah as Gonzo said above models seem to be locking on now to a considerable cold plunge the second half of next week with signs of possible brief ridging at the end of the weekend or thereabouts but no certainty of this. Currently showing temps generally in the 10 to 15C range by day and some very low temps at night making frost possible in sheltered areas. Could be a stiff Northerly component to the wind later next week so giving an added chill at times especially in coastal areas. Extra quilts, jumpers, jackets and the like to be got ready it looks like, certainly will give no doubt that summer is over.

    Even the guys in Spain and on the north coast of Africa are going to feel this plunge too! Quite a marked drop in temperatures if this plays out as the models predict!

    Spain next Friday night: GFSOPSP18_204_5.png

    And the following day widespread mid-teens in Spain with just the usual coastal resorts getting into the low 20s along with N Africa.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Usually the charts moderate a bit as you get closer to an event, the last couple of runs are showing colder conditions I reckon from midweek with some very cold nights, ECM showing getting down to around 4C and 3C but I reckon the ECM is normally quite conservative with cold temperatures so could even get a bit lower. GFS looks windier than the ECM . GFS showing it a lot wetter also, ECM has really lowered the expected rainfall amounts not developing the lows from midweek, GFS continues to develop them hence showing stronger winds and higher rainfall totals. If we had wind like the GFS showing it would give some Windchill, skinning! Interesting that the UKMO is more like the GFS showing some very cold wet and windy weather , hmmm.

    The ridge around Sun/ Mon doesn't look like lasting long either, GFS doesn't develop it at all.

    EDIT : Looking back over the Oz ECM, it was much more in line with the GFS and UKMO, maybe the 12Z was an outlier. Will see in the morning.


    3tS8hg3.gif

    lMsd06y.gif

    anim_znw4.gif




    P453DXJ.gif

    lWzolRb.gif


    bmqSIEn.gif


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Looks to me that there's likely to be quite a dip in the jet in the eastern US through early October and a corresponding ridge-trough-ridge pattern over Europe, with the trough centred over the UK/Ireland. Go figure! This, like an Omega High in summertime, can be very difficult to push away and gives off some exceptionally wet months. I'm thinking months like October 2004, November 2009 etc - look away Corkians!

    Atlantic looks to be going through a quieter phase now for hurricanes or tropical storms so should be less uncertainty caused by them for the time being though there is still Teddy to contend with at the moment. However, for our part of the Atlantic, it looks to be full steam ahead with slow moving depressions giving off a lot of rain.

    XnbKCqz.png

    NlqIiRM.png

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    looks fairly chilly as well over the next few weeks with plenty of north-west to south-east lows and the possibility of northern blocking getting going as we move towards winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    So a fairly freezing end to Autumn followed by a mild Winter (again)

    Some years we get our coldest nights in October (sad but true)


  • Registered Users Posts: 928 ✭✭✭ compsys


    pauldry wrote: »
    So a fairly freezing end to Autumn followed by a mild Winter (again)

    Some years we get our coldest nights in October (sad but true)

    Even worse, the temp in Mullingar and Dublin Airport got down to -3º this May!

    We barely got close to freezing throughout the entire winter yet managed to plunge below freezing two weeks out from summer.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I remember the build up to last winter, we had plenty of north-west to south-east lows last October and just as these were starting to turn wintry on high ground towards the end of October we were into a relentless very mild winter from first week of November right across to early March and then we got the dry and mild Spring.

    Hopefully this isn't another case of cold October followed by a very mild winter but we shall see.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Lp continues to dominate out to +240 hrs from the ECM 12Z and beyond into FI by the GFS. Trending quite wet and on the cooler side in general. Some big rainfall totals showing up especially in the SW.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/


    JfoJj9p.gif


    k5u4HYG.gif


    dQiuBKw.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Surprised it hasn't been noted here but the GEFS now has 31 ensemble members (counting the control and operational runs) instead of the former 21 as NOAA recently upgraded them. You can count this as 32 if including the parallel run too.

    An increasingly wet outlook into October with a clear zonal sinewave as some days average and others cool - oscillating air masses. But on the whole, favouring the cooler than average side.

    9erdJH8.png

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    not much in the way of rain over the next week which is good. It's been a great September and our only real taste of summer since May and now a very definite changeover to Autumn rather than a gradual trend towards Autumn.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    In Sligo weathers been great this year bar first 2 weeks of July which were dark and cold.

    October looks like it will be our worst weather since start of March. A cold and wet one.
    However it could always get mild or warm mid month which sometimes happens

    Rainfall has generally been normal or below here since Mid March.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    Yes, it certainly has a whiff of last October and winter about it. I suppose some people will be grateful for the lower energy bills if we do get a repeat of winter 2019/2020


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement