Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

Rikand · 30-01-2014 10:58pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

U should tell them it's a west event!

People from Dublin only know Dublin

Leixlip and Lucan ARE the west coast....

maquiladora · 30-01-2014 11:13pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

18z has the worst of it over west and south.
Looks worse to me than anything so far this Winter for the South anyway.
Coupled with high tides looks severe

18Z GFS has maximum gusts of up to 120 km/h touching the southwest coast. So not as severe as Dec 26/27th if this came off. Southern counties were under a red warning during that storm.

I've seen the GFS showing gusts for up to 120 km/h for the south several times already this winter. Still looks to be very stormy at times in places, but doesn't look to be any worse than weve already had recently.

The most interesting part I think continues to be the threat of coastal flooding due to the timing of this with the tides.

Gusts :
42-289UK.GIF?30-18

Harps · 30-01-2014 11:24pm

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS has maximum gusts of up to 120 km/h touching the southwest coast. So not as severe as Dec 26/27th if this came off. Southern counties were under a red warning during that storm.

I've seen the GFS showing gusts for up to 120 km/h for the south several times already this winter. Still looks to be very stormy at times in places, but doesn't look to be any worse than weve already had recently.

The most interesting thing part I think continues to be the threat of coastal flooding due to the timing of this with the tides.

Would agree with that, dont want to be playing it down too much but from a wind point of view it doesn't look like anything exceptional at all, a typical winter storm with coastal gales, possibly storm force in exposed areas and strong gusts nationwide. We'll likely have the usual mix of reports from 'worst conditions ever experienced' to 'what storm?'

Coastal flooding is the main issue, it seems to be a bit of a nowcast situation though high tide + storm is never a good combination so some sort of flooding looks inevitable. Hopefully with local authorities getting warning out early people might make better preparations

Mr Cumulonimbus · 30-01-2014 11:43pm

Red Pepper wrote: »

I often saw that beach/spit from the top of Croagh Patrick and always meant to explore it. Is it gone now or just damaged?

Is there any snow on the reek today?

Damaged. Not been down since the 4th Jan.

Oscar Bravo · 30-01-2014 11:50pm

Bertra beach carpark is no more

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 12:06am

I feel the country will take more of a blow than some suspect.

It looks quite widespread across the middle of the country with strong winds getting well inland.

I can see quite widespread 50-60kt gusts from this inland.

70-75kt along exposed western parts.

- I think it looks as strong or stronger than Stephen's Day storm did @ +6hrs after it had been downgraded repeatedly during the prior 36 hours. Of course this could happen to this system also!

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 12:09am

Let's remember what the Stephen's Day storm actually analysed as... It actually didn't
end up having an extremely tight gradient.

Very different to the severity we were shown just 24-48hrs before-hand.

So the storm as currently progged is IMO as significant as this system or even greater.

Cogsy88 · 31-01-2014 12:13am

Pumps, sandbags nd flood gates are in place on the coast road clontarf.

Put dat smiley in by accident and can't remove it.

31-01-2014 12:42am

Do you reckon I would be ok driving from Naas to Galway on Friday night or should I leave it til Saturday ?

goat2 · 31-01-2014 12:45am

i live about five hundred meters from the sea, will like watching high tide as i am on elevated ground, but hate the thought of the wind,
that roar and the slates clapping, hard to open doors, could feel a suction, i guess i will not get much sleep again, the last storm scared me, think i will take up residence in downstairs back room this time, and hope for the best,

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2014 12:53am

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you reckon I would be ok driving from Naas to Galway on Friday night or should I leave it til Saturday ?

Check for updates but at this point, Friday evening to arrive before 0100h Saturday should be okay but so would later Saturday, assuming no closed roads from any fallen trees etc. Worst time to do that drive would be first thing Saturday morning (like 0500-0800) based on current guidance.

Goat2, interesting, but could you give a more specific location if you post observations during storm? Thanks.

goat2 · 31-01-2014 12:55am

west kerry

Steopo · 31-01-2014 12:57am

Have tried to compare all the factors as best I can to the two previous coastal damaging events on 3rd Jan & 6th Jan

High Tide Cork: Jan 3rd 4.1m, Jan 6th 3.84m, Feb 1st 4.21m
Wave Surf Height K4 Buoy Forecasts: Jan 6th 73ft, Feb 1st 67ft (Rossbeigh around 50ft on both Jan 6th & Feb 1st), Jan 3rd ? but was much lower from memory
Wave Period: Jan 3rd 17sec, Jan 6th 21sec, Feb 1st 19sec
Wave Energy: Jan 3rd ? (but there was not a huge swell), Jan 6th >100kj, Feb 1st >100kj
Wind Gusts Cork Airport: Jan 3rd 57kns, Jan 6th 52 knts, Feb 1st 60knts
Rainfall Cork (2 days) - Jan3rd 14mm, Jan 6th 27mm, Feb 1st 25mm (guess)
Direction of sea swell - there was not a major swell on 3rd, on the 6th the direction was slightly more from a southerly direction
Wind Area - area of wind & sea swell was enormous on 6th Jan and Feb 1st event is smaller but still significant

Above may not be fully accurate in terms of actual outcomes some of 3rd & 6th Jan stats are forecasts but it's best I could do on like for like basis (open to correction)

Looks to me like sea swell & wave energy not quite as high as 6th Jan but still huge, we're dealing with higher tides (6th Jan tides were over foot lower), possibly stronger winds & similar rain & obviously some sea defences damaged. I reckon we're dealing with a similar event but maybe slightly worse impacts to 6th Jan

dexter647 · 31-01-2014 1:16am

goat2 wrote: »

i live about five hundred meters from the sea, will like watching high tide as i am on elevated ground, but hate the thought of the wind,
that roar and the slates clapping, hard to open doors, could feel a suction, i guess i will not get much sleep again, the last storm scared me, think i will take up residence in downstairs back room this time, and hope for the best,

You will be fine so don't be worrying...It will no doubt be windy but not scary windy so just enjoy by the fire:)

Mr Cumulonimbus · 31-01-2014 1:37am

18Z Euro4. Track shifting south it seems.

Oscar Bravo · 31-01-2014 1:42am

No wind for NW in that run (rain approaching the west coast now)

Oscar Bravo · 31-01-2014 1:48am

And a quite Westport about a week ago

maquiladora · 31-01-2014 1:53am

18Z WRF shows winds touching storm force on the exposed southwest coasts at the peak of the storm, with gales pushing into those Atlantic facing counties. Elsewhere gales/strong gales are restricted to south/southeast coast areas.

Still time for track and intensity changes but at the moment I'm not seeing anything stronger than what we've already seen this winter for these areas.

Coastal flooding has the potential to be more severe than previous events if the timing lines up just right with the high tide, though it could also turn out less severe. Better to be prepared for the worst when it comes to flooding anyway. I'm guessing the level 3 title change is due to the flooding risk?

nmmuk-3-43-0.png?31-00

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2014 3:17am

Yes, I asked moderators to consider a level change because my editing time for the original post expired.

The thread title now indicates that a map at post 87 shows what level of risk is anticipated in different regions.

The level 3 would be justified more by the storm surge than maximum wind gusts which probably still fall into level 2, but I'm sure that readers will understand that we have to choose a level that will alert those most in danger and in this case it would not just be a handful of isolated people in remote areas but potentially quite a significant number of people in places like Cork, Limerick and Galway.

We can always back off to level 2 again if the storm weakens on the 00z runs.

fr wishy washy · 31-01-2014 8:04am

Wind starting to rev up here.

JanuarySnowstor · 31-01-2014 8:13am

For the South the gradient is tighter than what's gone before. Southwest munster looks like been badly hit by this imo

ch750536 · 31-01-2014 8:54am

goat2 wrote: »

i live about five hundred meters from the sea, will like watching high tide as i am on elevated ground, but hate the thought of the wind,
that roar and the slates clapping, hard to open doors, could feel a suction, i guess i will not get much sleep again, the last storm scared me, think i will take up residence in downstairs back room this time, and hope for the best,

Are you a labrador? Mine said the same thing to me last week.:D

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2014 9:29am

Sky is just vomiting rain here at the moment. Not much wind but local flooding inevitable as this rain band crosses over the country today.

Steopo · 31-01-2014 9:39am

You can't even see Ireland on map with amount of rain at moment :eek:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Coles · 31-01-2014 9:44am

It might be possible to get an idea of the tidal and storm surge from the OPW live tidal sensors. Shame there aren't more of them.

OPW Tidal Sensors

maquiladora · 31-01-2014 10:08am

0Z EURO4 for 9am tomorrow showing gales reaching inland in parts of Clare/Kerry/Cork, reaching storm force on the coast.

0Z WRF looks less severe than the EURO4 with maximum gusts of up to 110 km/h. Though this may be about 10 km/h too low I think.

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