Property Market 2019

beauf · 24-07-2019 4:23pm

terrydel wrote: »

The important point here is how much did that 1/3 equate to?
If its 1mil quid then even their high combined income makes it a huge risk to pay back.

Say its 300k

aloooof · 24-07-2019 4:43pm

beauf wrote: »

200 isn't much of a cushion at time of historically high rents.

If rents were to fall 50% what then...

Which is why I mentioned that someone buying an investment property should do their due diligence.

I was just trying to demonstrate the point that, in theory, an investment property that is costing someone X amount every month could still be a very good investment.

The Student · 24-07-2019 5:43pm

beauf wrote: »

200 isn't much of a cushion at time of historically high rents.

If rents were to fall 50% what then...

Once you are in positive equity less any contributions you have made then you have made money.

beauf · 24-07-2019 5:50pm

The Student wrote: »

Once you are in positive equity less any contributions you have made then you have made money.

My point is you can get into trouble if you are stretched at a time of high rents, if rents fall you are stuffed and you have unexpected repairs or extended over holding.

Which is what happened last time. A lot of LL got out of the market after the crash probably because they were over extended.

handlemaster · 24-07-2019 6:33pm

aloooof wrote: »

Noah Scruffy Kale wrote: »

The figures you give for the LL above, in terms of cash in the short term it is costing them money to rent out the house purely on the mortgage. You also don't factor in all the maintenance costs associated with being an LL renting out a property. This doesn't make any sense, why would anyone do it?

Because they are gaining equity in the property.

You cant eat equity !. You cant do anything with this until you sell.

The Student · 24-07-2019 8:01pm

beauf wrote: »

My point is you can get into trouble if you are stretched at a time of high rents, if rents fall you are stuffed and you have unexpected repairs or extended over holding.

Which is what happened last time. A lot of LL got out of the market after the crash probably because they were over extended.

I agree with you but being a landlord is a business. So many think it is easy money. Like any business you have peaks and troughs. The successful landlord expects them and plans accordingly the unsuccessful one does not and can get lucky or badly burned.

On a slightly separate note the govts treatment of the small landlord will come back to bite them.

beauf · 24-07-2019 8:12pm

I don't think the Govt care other than if it effects votes. So they will say lots of platitudes, without actually doing anything of consequence.

aloooof · 25-07-2019 8:32am

handlemaster wrote: »

You cant eat equity !. You cant do anything with this until you sell.

Which is why I mentioned due diligence. If you think fluctuating costs are going to impact something as fundamental as your groceries, then that long term investment is a bad idea. For others, who can afford it, it may still be a good idea.

Zenify · 31-07-2019 11:38am

I havent been going to any viewings the past few months. Anyone have any updates, busy etc.? Please mention price bracket and area.

Bluefoam · 31-07-2019 12:00pm

Zenify wrote: »

I havent been going to any viewings the past few months. Anyone have any updates, busy etc.? Please mention price bracket and area.

Busy: yes, I have been
Price Bracket: As little as possible
Area: circa 100m/sq

Bluefoam · 31-07-2019 12:52pm

Canada and New Zealand are the most vulnerable to a house price correction given both the price-income ratio and the price-rent ratio are well above their long-run averages, according to Bloomberg Economics. Policy makers may already be acting given Canada’s government has introduced a tax on foreign buyers, while overseas purchases have been banned in New Zealand. Still, the next challenge will be whether global house prices rise as central banks get ready to lower interest rates, with the Federal Reserve set to cut rates for the first time in more than a decade on Wednesday.

Ireland looking reasonably safe according to the graphic...

https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-07-30/canada-nz-most-vulnerable-to-house-price-corrections-graphic?amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2019-07-30%2Fcanada-nz-most-vulnerable-to-house-price-corrections-graphic

cruizer101 · 31-07-2019 2:07pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Ireland looking reasonably safe according to the graphic...

Thats a shockingly hard graphic to read, its like someone just saw the option and thought they were being clever picking it instead of a bar chart to be unique, there is a reason bar charts are common, they are easy to read. Don't pick a fancy chart unless it is adding value in some way, this isn't.

Bluefoam · 31-07-2019 2:13pm

cruizer101 wrote: »

Thats a shockingly hard graphic to read, its like someone just saw the option and thought they were being clever picking it instead of a bar chart to be unique, there is a reason bar charts are common, they are easy to read. Don't pick a fancy chart unless it is adding value in some way, this isn't.

We'll thanks for that, next time I read the news I'll be sure to criteque the journalists who present it... & I'll wait till they have reconfigured it before I dare to share it...

how is your cubicle today? has someone turned down the airconditioning? are you a little grumpy? did someone use the wrong colour in an excel spreadsheet today? maybe try to get out for some fresh air... are you allowed, or will it cause you additional distress? bless...

Bob24 · 31-07-2019 2:14pm

cruizer101 wrote: »

Thats a shockingly hard graphic to read, its like someone just saw the option and thought they were being clever picking it instead of a bar chart to be unique, there is a reason bar charts are common, they are easy to read. Don't pick a fancy chart unless it is adding value in some way, this isn't.

The data visualisation is horrible alright. But the data itself is relevant to the discussion.

helimachoptor · 31-07-2019 2:22pm

Myhome just tweeted a load of price updates around south country dublin (blackrock/foxrock/monkstown etc)

Probably more price rises than drops, and just looking at it, the increases are greater % wise than the drops

odd: it looks like these are all now sold and they were just updating the price

AlmightyCushion · 31-07-2019 2:57pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Ireland looking reasonably safe according to the graphic...

https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-07-30/canada-nz-most-vulnerable-to-house-price-corrections-graphic?amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2019-07-30%2Fcanada-nz-most-vulnerable-to-house-price-corrections-graphic

I'd prefer to see the 2 metrics split out into separate graphs. Rent prices have sky rocketed here in the past 4 years so our price to rent ratio probably looks good but only because rents have gotten so high. Even if our price to income ratio got a lot worse, our relatively good price to rent ratio would mask that.

aloooof · 31-07-2019 3:27pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

We'll thanks for that, next time I read the news I'll be sure to criteque the journalists who present it... & I'll wait till they have reconfigured it before I dare to share it...

how is your cubicle today? has someone turned down the airconditioning? are you a little grumpy? did someone use the wrong colour in an excel spreadsheet today? maybe try to get out for some fresh air... are you allowed, or will it cause you additional distress? bless...

Cruizer was criticising the graph, not criticising your posting of it. Don't take it so personally.

cruizer101 · 31-07-2019 3:34pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

We'll thanks for that, next time I read the news I'll be sure to criteque the journalists who present it... & I'll wait till they have reconfigured it before I dare to share it...

how is your cubicle today? has someone turned down the airconditioning? are you a little grumpy? did someone use the wrong colour in an excel spreadsheet today? maybe try to get out for some fresh air... are you allowed, or will it cause you additional distress? bless...

I've no issue with your posting it, it is relevant and valuable to the discussion, but why do bloomberg complicate what is relatively simple data.

I'm also not sure about combining house price to income and house price to rent, how are they combined?

Zenify · 31-07-2019 3:57pm

Is that chart and article saying Ireland is 13th in the world to be at risk of a housing bubble? I cant figure it out.

cruizer101 · 31-07-2019 4:16pm

Zenify wrote: »

Is that chart and article saying Ireland is 13th in the world to be at risk of a housing bubble? I cant figure it out.

It says compared to 2015 (2015 = 100) the combination (what combination I don't know) of our house price to income and house price to rent has increase about 20%.
Where as New Zealand and Canada has increased by 80%.
So because they have increased so much they are potentially at more risk of a house price collapse

Edit:
Decided to look a it further
From CSO house price index Jan 2015 77.3, May 2019 107, thats a 38% increase.
From Daft rental report rental index Jan 2015 120, Dec 2018 179 thats a 50% increase.
(I know dates different but that most recent I could easily find)

Average Income Jan 2015 700pw, Dec 2018 760pw thats a 8.5% increase. (Just got this from a line chart on Irishtimes)

House-Price to income increase is about 25% increase.
House-Price to rent increase is about 8% decrease (this is due to massive increase in rent )

Combined they got 20% increase, maybe some weighted average based on how many live in each.
I can't really see the value in combining them, to me they are very different measures, maybe I'm missing something.
Rent to income seems more relevant, 36% increase.

Dolbhad · 31-07-2019 8:37pm

Zenify wrote: »

I havent been going to any viewings the past few months. Anyone have any updates, busy etc.? Please mention price bracket and area.

I am looking around Cork City and surrounding county. Max is 320k. Compared to last year I’m not finding it as busy. I’ve also been the only person a open viewings!

Asking prices are higher than last year but last year would have immediately gone to asking and above. Now I’m finding the 1st offer is under asking and slower moving up. Spent two weeks waiting to hear back on an offer I had put in before they said a higher offer was in. And it was only 2k more. Whereas last year it was min 5k prices were going up.

But supply is really low at moment with new houses on market but expect that to be the time of year.

dor843088 · 31-07-2019 11:19pm

That graph is interesting but useless. Ireland is at more risk of a house price correction than any other country in the world right now. Brexit could turn this economy on its head . Banks will get cagey with credit and off we go . Not saying it will definitely happen but it's a huge risk to anyone buying a property right now.

duffman13 · 01-08-2019 2:45pm

dor843088 wrote: »

That graph is interesting but useless. Ireland is at more risk of a house price correction than any other country in the world right now. Brexit could turn this economy on its head . Banks will get cagey with credit and off we go . Not saying it will definitely happen but it's a huge risk to anyone buying a property right now.

Id disagree, of those listed, Australia and the UK would be more at risk. NZ aswell. Our problem is not unique

Edit: Only economies I've a little knowledge off

Bluefoam · 01-08-2019 2:49pm

dor843088 wrote: »

That graph is interesting but useless. Ireland is at more risk of a house price correction than any other country in the world right now. Brexit could turn this economy on its head . Banks will get cagey with credit and off we go . Not saying it will definitely happen but it's a huge risk to anyone buying a property right now.

I find your reasoning insightful... maybe you should be an economist and write for Bloomberg. You have already proved how much detail you are willing to provide... now go out and make some money from your expertise.

OwlsZat · 01-08-2019 10:10pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/going-down-property-prices-cool-as-affordability-bites-1.3973198

The_Conductor · 02-08-2019 6:53am

OwlsZat wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/going-down-property-prices-cool-as-affordability-bites-1.3973198

There was a degree of inevitability that property prices were going to 'cool'.
I was comparing and contrasting the self-same situation in Portugal to the Irish market for a colleague in the last few days- and the similarities are startling (and indeed the sentiment- esp. the media going on about how incoming immigrants are supporting property prices and demand let price rises were inevitable).

People have finite finances.
People cannot be trusted to act in their own best interests.
The current rules- like them or hate them- work.
Gravity defying price rises are neither sustainable nor something that we should strive towards.

The joker in the pack- that looked so unlikely to happen- a hard Brexit- is now being acknowledged as a stark and growing possibility.

Unfortunately- even some of the more pessimistic of us did not imagine that the doom that was forecasted would come to pass.

We need a seachange in Ireland- coming a gamut of sectors not just in the property sector. E.g. our planning system is irretrievably broken. The manner in which sustainable energy production is held hostage by refuseniks- mirrors the growing and voiciferous anti-vaccination brigade that society seems too genteel to sit down and impose rules that benefit society as a whole.

The rights of society in general- have to trump the rights of the individual- instead- as usual- we have the tail wagging the dog in Ireland.

aloooof · 02-08-2019 9:21am

Bluefoam wrote: »

We'll thanks for that, next time I read the news I'll be sure to criteque the journalists who present it... & I'll wait till they have reconfigured it before I dare to share it...

how is your cubicle today? has someone turned down the airconditioning? are you a little grumpy? did someone use the wrong colour in an excel spreadsheet today? maybe try to get out for some fresh air... are you allowed, or will it cause you additional distress? bless...

Bluefoam wrote: »

I find your reasoning insightful... maybe you should be an economist and write for Bloomberg. You have already proved how much detail you are willing to provide... now go out and make some money from your expertise.

Do you need to be so condescending / sarcastic? You may think some posts aren't adding anything to the discussion, but this nonsense actively discourages it.

Bluefoam · 02-08-2019 9:48am

aloooof wrote: »

Do you need to be so condescending / sarcastic? You may think some posts aren't adding anything to the discussion, but this nonsense actively discourages it.

Yes... I believe that there are many posters who can't see past their noses and are unwilling or unable to converse, understand other perspectives and provide dialogue, so as a mechanism to get a point across I have reverted to similar childish behaviour... By making a point in a sarcastic way, it seems to penetrate more effectively.

I am also stubborn, but am will to accept other posters logic when it is sensible...

With regard to the graph... genuinely who gives a **** what the graph looks like, we were able to read and understand the basis of what they were trying to communicate... afterall it's just a graph out of an article... who really wants to forensically analise the presentation of a chart instead of discussing the content? This thread is about content, not graphs and their graphical presentation.

I also get wound up when posters use big grandiose statements with little to back them up, bar their feelings... It's been said here more than once... there is a swell of feelings here from many users who think they are entitled, wish lossess on others and base comments on what they want to have rather than economic reality, just so that they can make gains. Every generation has struggled to purchase property, it's tough, it always has been...

aloooof · 02-08-2019 10:11am

Bluefoam wrote: »

Yes... I believe that there are many posters who can't see past their noses and are unwilling or unable to converse, understand other perspectives and provide dialogue, so as a mechanism to get a point across I have reverted to similar childish behaviour... By making a point in a sarcastic way, it seems to penetrate more effectively.

Where did criuzer or dor do any of those things? They were both fairly innocuous posts.

Bluefoam wrote: »

I am also stubborn, but am will to accept other posters logic when it is sensible...

So why didn't you ask for dor's logic on his post, or refute it yourself? I could maybe understand your reaction if there was some back and forth with those posters, but there wasn't. You went straight to condescension. That doesn't promote discussion.

Graham · 02-08-2019 10:17am

Mod Note

If you have an issue with a post, report it.

Bluefoam wrote: »

to get a point across I have reverted to similar childish behaviour...

Please stop it.

beauf · 02-08-2019 11:40am

Bluefoam wrote: »

...With regard to the graph... genuinely who gives a **** what the graph looks like, we were able to read and understand the basis of what they were trying to communicate... ....

The criticism isn't of what our looks like, (or if you) but that it communicates it's information poorly.

Some people find information easier to interpret when it's graphical, others when it's text and others when it's audio. People are different.

That said I don't think it's telling us anything new. So the graphic serves it's purpose in that regard. Most people seem to agree if there is a slow down it won't be a crash like the last time in Ireland. That said the effect of Brexit is hard to guesstimate. I'm starting to think there will be stagnation as everything slows and projects run out of funding.

OwlsZat · 12-08-2019 7:59pm

Was informed yesterday lots of the new houses around Naas aren't selling. Only 15/90 sold in one particular development. Anyone know why this is?

mcbert · 12-08-2019 9:07pm

Brexit?

Tomrota · 12-08-2019 9:25pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Was informed yesterday lots of the new houses around Naas aren't selling. Only 15/90 sold in one particular development. Anyone know why this is?

Lack of public transport compared to every other commuter town? I’d much rather buy in Maynooth or Greystones.

Dolbhad · 12-08-2019 9:41pm

Anybody have any thoughts on the new governor of the Central Bank Gabriel Makhlouf? I’m not impressed of his handling of the budget leaks in New Zealand but I do wonder if he will feel under pressure to make any changes to the rules.

Rothmans · 12-08-2019 9:57pm

Tomrota wrote: »

Lack of public transport compared to every other commuter town? I’d much rather buy in Maynooth or Greystones.

My thoughts exactly. For a county town in the Geater Dublin Area, its mad that it doesn't even have so much as a train station.

An absolutely lovely town, but crawling up that N7 every morning certainly wouldn't appeal to me!

lawred2 · 12-08-2019 9:58pm

Tomrota wrote: »

Lack of public transport compared to every other commuter town? I’d much rather buy in Maynooth or Greystones.

So would almost everyone.. hence the crazy prices

OwlsZat · 12-08-2019 10:48pm

lawred2 wrote: »

Tomrota wrote: »

Lack of public transport compared to every other commuter town? I’d much rather buy in Maynooth or Greystones.

So would almost everyone.. hence the crazy prices

The prices in Maynooth and Naas are pretty comparable. The dart is coming to Maynooth makes it more appealing. Strange given its size how Naas has very limited rail services.

goodluckduck · 13-08-2019 3:46am

Yep

OwlsZat wrote: »

The prices in Maynooth and Naas are pretty comparable. The dart is coming to Maynooth makes it more appealing. Strange given its size how Naas has very limited rail services.

Depending on where you live in Naas you can easily be within a 10 minute cycle or 5 minute drive of the train station at Sallins which has a very frequent service to Dublin. The bus options are decent too - the N7 bus lane at newlands helps a bit with the journey times.

I live abroad and have been looking at an investment property there but judging from daft alone it does seem like some of the new builds have been slow to shift alright.

tigger123 · 13-08-2019 11:02am

Naas is lovely, and we definitely would have given it more consideration before buying in Dublin if it had better commuting options.

The_Conductor · 13-08-2019 12:06pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Was informed yesterday lots of the new houses around Naas aren't selling. Only 15/90 sold in one particular development. Anyone know why this is?

Heres one good reason that they're having an interesting time shifting stock

Bigmac1euro · 13-08-2019 12:41pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Heres one good reason that they're having an interesting time shifting stock

Just looking on daft.
Seems to be 18 New developments out that way. All around 300 - 485k
Can you imagine spending that to live in area if your not from around there and with little infrastructure according to some posters above.

I honestly do feel bad for any couple that spends 485k on a house out in Naas only to have 50-70% of that estate becoming council or a ghost estate.
Long commute if working in Dublin, expensive mortgage with a good chance of having neighbours you wont integrate well with due to culture differences or having no neighbours at all.
Chance of selling would be pretty slim with a good chance of losing a bomb.
They need to get realistic with the house prices out that way. 200-250 should be the standard 3/4 bed house price.

The Mulk · 13-08-2019 12:49pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

The prices in Maynooth and Naas are pretty comparable. The dart is coming to Maynooth makes it more appealing. Strange given its size how Naas has very limited rail services.

Naas was always at least 10% lower than Maynooth, Celbridge and Léixlip especially around the 2nd hand market. If they're pricing new houses at similar prices in Naas as prices in the North of the county its no surprise that they aren't being snapped up.
Its a lovely town but the transport options seriously lag behind the other 3.
Even some of the peak time train services to Connolly only start and terminate at Hazelhatch

riclad · 13-08-2019 2:10pm

I do,nt think theres any chance of any ghost estates being built near dublin,
someone will buy them ,the ghost estates from 2008,
were built in rural area,s ,
where demand was not there for house,,s being sold for 200k plus .
Builders have to get finance before they build ,than buy a site .
The selling price is based on site cost, cost of building the house,plus there
should be 10-20 per cent profit .
The cost of land varys widely from area to area ,
builders want sites that are large enough for 20 plus house,s with a garden .

The_Conductor · 13-08-2019 2:30pm

riclad wrote: »

I do,nt think theres any chance of any ghost estates being built near dublin,
someone will buy them ,the ghost estates from 2008,
were built in rural area,s ,
where demand was not there for house,,s being sold for 200k plus .
Builders have to get finance before they build ,than buy a site .
The selling price is based on site cost, cost of building the house,plus there
should be 10-20 per cent profit .
The cost of land varys widely from area to area ,
builders want sites that are large enough for 20 plus house,s with a garden .

Thats not entirely true. There were 'ghost estates' built in Naas, Lucan, Clonee and many other areas in the immediate vicinity of Dublin. Some of these (such as Clonee) are still unfinished to this day (despite new estates being built in the areas).

Its a myth that the ghost estates of the last decade were in rural areas- a clear majority of them were within commutable distance of Dublin. The fact that some of these areas were considered commutable, is an entirely different situation.

The issue with a lot of the estates in the immediate vicinity of Naas- is wholly aside from the improbable numbers of social housing units (and the fact that some of the estates are entirely the possession of housing associations)- is the price, plain and simple. They are too expensive.

If they are priced at an appropriate level- they will sell (despite the slowdown). They're not currently priced at a level appropriate for their location or the current market conditions.

Tomrota · 13-08-2019 2:31pm

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Just looking on daft.
Seems to be 18 New developments out that way. All around 300 - 485k
Can you imagine spending that to live in area if your not from around there and with little infrastructure according to some posters above.

I honestly do feel bad for any couple that spends 485k on a house out in Naas only to have 50-70% of that estate becoming council or a ghost estate.
Long commute if working in Dublin, expensive mortgage with a good chance of having neighbours you wont integrate well with due to culture differences or having no neighbours at all.
Chance of selling would be pretty slim with a good chance of losing a bomb.
They need to get realistic with the house prices out that way. 200-250 should be the standard 3/4 bed house price.

Well, it’s great for those couples looking to get out of the hustle and bustle of the city that are happy to only use a car for the rest of time because you’re straight onto the N7 which only takes about 15 mins to get to the M50.

However if you are a student or wish to use public transport to get to work, the transit is abysmal. The only bus that goes to Dublin is the Kildare/newbridge commuter bus which is one of the worst services in the country and costs far more than other buses and is not subject to LEAP fares or caps. Thus, it can be very expensive. So those couples that move in might be happy but if they decide to have kids... the transport isn’t so great for them. For example, a student trying to get to UCD wouldn’t be subject to LEAP fares or caps and wouldn’t have the extra 1€ transfer cost, which every other commuter town enjoys.

Theboinkmaster · 13-08-2019 2:34pm

Tomrota wrote: »

Well, it’s great for those couples looking to get out of the hustle and bustle of the city that are happy to only use a car for the rest of time because you’re straight onto the N7 which only takes about 15 mins to get to the M50.

At 3am with no traffic on the road

The_Conductor · 13-08-2019 2:36pm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

At 3am with no traffic on the road

And willing to break the improbably low speed limit...........

handlemaster · 13-08-2019 2:39pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-12/mortgage-rate-declines-aren-t-boosting-u-s-housing?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-linkedin-business+&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

handlemaster · 13-08-2019 2:40pm

Housing market no the slump in the US

Property Market 2019

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