Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 6:06pm

The GEFS ensemble mean is down to 955mb now.

Oneiric 3 · 11-01-2015 6:13pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The GEFS ensemble mean is down to 955mb now.

How does it compare with earlier runs Maq in terms of positioning?

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 6:20pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

How does it compare with earlier runs Maq in terms of positioning?

I can't recall the position, I don't think there is an archive for the GEFS. But it is 5mb deeper.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2015 6:24pm

The positioning is surprisingly consistent at this range with the UKMO a bit on the progressive side - the depth is the real differential in terms of impact. Both could still change radically between now and then though. The GEFS and UKMO are both in upgrade territory today against their 00z runs.

Nabber · 11-01-2015 6:32pm

Oneiric 3 · 11-01-2015 6:43pm

Looking at the latest prognoses regarding development & track of this storm low, it reminds me a little of one particular storm that hit in January 1990.

This brought some powerful gusts to southern areas esp.

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 7:32pm

There doesn't seem to be much of a change on the 12Z ECM from the 0Z. Doesn't seem to have moved any closer to the GFS. Further south than the GFS at 72 hours, and at 96 hours there's a significant difference between the GFS/GFSP and the ECM.

There could still be a short period of strong winds between 72-96 hours but we'll have to wait to see the 3-hour steps for that.

Harps · 11-01-2015 7:55pm

ECMWF, 960hPa low with 50-60kts winds on the west coast and sustained gale force right into the midlands. Not as severe as the GFS runs but still packing a punch

legomaniac · 11-01-2015 8:09pm

Tactical wrote: »

Baaaaaa?

On a more serious note, be prepared.

I note that some of the surfing websites are predicting heavy swell. For example Inch Beach in Co. Kerry is forecast at 19 foot.

So depending on the exact nature of the costal location one should consider tidal conditions if appropriate. So if the house gets battered by either a wave or debris then plan accordingly for conditions. Better safe than sorry.

Baaaaaa.... love it!! I will keep an eye on things alright... I got the impression that Jean was holding back a little on this evening's forecast... not wanting to cause to much stress or worry at this stage.... and quite rightly so

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 8:17pm

Yeah, 12Z ECM is stormy, but not as severe as the GFS.

Still a few days to go, so it could upgrade a bit. But I think a GFS downgrade is more likely.

Cantona's Collars · 11-01-2015 8:31pm

BBC forecast just been on,giving a pretty severe storm with the centre of the low over the North West of Ireland & moving North East.

Jet stream is to push South by the weekend leading to calmer but very cold weather.

Meteorite58 · 11-01-2015 9:50pm

Nothing is certain but this looks quite a major wind event. Been going through the charts and what strikes me is how slow moving this storm is compared with the big one last Feb which peaked and did all the damage within a couple of hours here in Kerry. To my amateur eye this looks like blowing a stink for anything up to 12 hrs here on the Kerry coast, hard to know how long it will peak for and what kind of wind speeds but most likely has the potential to be damaging going by the present set up. High Tide here is set for about 23.30 which will probably coincide with the brunt of the storm Weds night although it will be a neap tide.Rivers are quite full atm although a good dry day here today so far.

Spent a few hours making the place secure today: took off wooden gates, tied down fences, weighed down anything that can move, have camping gas,lamps, candles etc on standby. Have a feeling we are going to be without electricity for a time.:(

Not being an alarmist but this may be one to be prepared for.

Redsunset · 11-01-2015 9:54pm

funny gifs

Here's the high res GFS P and It just might not be too far off this track and intensity. Certainly shows a fairly nasty situation. I know ECM is nearly always the form horse but let's look back at this and see how right or wrong it was <100 hrs,

red_bairn · 11-01-2015 10:12pm

Redsunset wrote:

Here's the high res GFS P and It just might not be too far off this track and intensity. Certainly shows a fairly nasty situation. I know ECM is nearly always the form horse but let's look back at this and see how right or wrong it was

Don't go by the form. Go by the colours of the riders.

Redsunset · 11-01-2015 10:15pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Nothing is certain but this looks quite a major wind event. Been going through the charts and what strikes me is how slow moving this storm is compared with the big one last Feb which peaked and did all the damage within a couple of hours here in Kerry. To my amateur eye this looks like blowing a stink for anything up to 12 hrs here on the Kerry coast, hard to know how long it will peak for and what kind of wind speeds but most likely has the potential to be damaging going by the present set up. High Tide here is set for about 23.30 which will probably coincide with the brunt of the storm Weds night although it will be a neap tide.Rivers are quite full atm although a good dry day here today so far.

Spent a few hours making the place secure today: took off wooden gates, tied down fences, weighed down anything that can move, have camping gas,lamps, candles etc on standby. Have a feeling we are going to be without electricity for a time.:(

Not being an alarmist but this may be one to be prepared for.

And that's the key. Tis always better to prepare for possible severe events, even if things don't end up on the more serious side well at least you have more peace of mind. Instead of should I or shouldn't I do all of the above.

teddybones · 11-01-2015 10:16pm

Looks very severe for east coast which isn't really that well prepared for extremely high winds. My own house sits on a hill in Wicklow town with nowt between me and the sea. The gusts predicted if the worst model scenario comes off would be significant. Certainly seem worse than anything last year had to offer.

Storm 10 · 11-01-2015 10:16pm

Looking at all the charts that have been posted I think it's time to upgrade the warnings, better to have a warning and it don't happen than have none and it's a disaster I don't think upgrading this storm is scaremongering it looks like it's going to happen. Opinions anyone

red_bairn · 11-01-2015 10:19pm

teddybones wrote:

Looks very severe for east coast which isn't really that well prepared for extremely high winds. My own house sits on a hill in Wicklow town with nowt between me and the sea. The gusts predicted if the worst model scenario comes off would be significant. Certainly seem worse than anything last year had to offer.

what is the direction of the winds if this comes off? I'm wondering will I be affected from getting to work by Dart if trees or anything falls on to the train line. I remember last year trains were delayed or cancelled when trees came down because it was a direction that was less common so the trees got weaker on particular sides.

Redsunset · 11-01-2015 10:21pm

Well I think It definitely deserves Be Aware status. Because something IS coming.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2015 10:21pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Well I think It definitely deserves Be Aware status. Because something IS coming.

Now do the snow thread.:P

munsterlegend · 11-01-2015 10:28pm

Rte forecast after the news certainly taking note of a possibility of a major storm on Wednesday night.

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 10:30pm

Looks like the Met Office went with an unmodified 96 hour FAX rather than leaning towards the ECM.

This would be around 945mb north of Ireland, I'm guessing.

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 10:52pm

18Z GFS is 10mb weaker than the 12Z. Starting to come into line with the less dramatic ECM version.

Rock Lesnar · 11-01-2015 10:54pm

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS is 10mb weaker than the 12Z. Starting to come into line with the less dramatic ECM version.

Hi Maq does that mean its weakening and will weaken further as the days go by or is it still to far away to tell for sure.

downwiththatsor · 11-01-2015 10:58pm

GFSP desper than the old op one though?

AnotherYear · 11-01-2015 10:59pm

GFS(P) 940 low off North Coast

gfs-0-78.png?18

Can't even see Ireland ha

Tactical · 11-01-2015 11:00pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Spent a few hours making the place secure today: took off wooden gates, tied down fences, weighed down anything that can move, have camping gas,lamps, candles etc on standby. Have a feeling we are going to be without electricity for a time.:(

Not being an alarmist but this may be one to be prepared for.

This is being sensible and is something I never tire of saying.

Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 11:06pm

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Hi Maq does that mean its weakening and will weaken further as the days go by or is it still to far away to tell for sure.

Too soon to say. I don't think it will downgrade hugely, I just think the GFS will drift more towards what the ECM is showing. That's what usually happens.

AnotherYear · 11-01-2015 11:23pm

Violent gusts in the NW

TheMilkyPirate · 11-01-2015 11:29pm

Finally, something worth following.

Gavster1982 · 11-01-2015 11:29pm

you c any reason to be wary up north? east tyrone or belfast?

leahyl · 11-01-2015 11:33pm

What strength of winds could be expected on the south coast?

gozunda · 11-01-2015 11:38pm

goat2 wrote: »

looks like scary stuff, had alot of damage done last year at my place, am dreading another blowdown, but at least i have the dangerous trees cut back

Was out today and had a good look at the surrounding landscape from a nearby hill. It's quite amazing but all the mature trees over a specific height / age were completely removed from the landscape from miles around following the last big storm last year. Hate to think what this one could remove . Off to batten down the hatches again ...

Oneiric 3 · 11-01-2015 11:47pm

It's interesting that night before Oiche na goaithe moire, there was a fall of snow.

Rougies · 11-01-2015 11:56pm

gozunda wrote: »

Was out today and had a good look at the surrounding landscape from a nearby hill. It's quite amazing but all the mature trees over a specific height / age were completely removed from the landscape from miles around following the last big storm last year. Hate to think what this one could remove . Off to batten down the hatches again ...

Isn't that a good thing though? The weaker trees were taken out last year so there should be less damage from fallen trees if this storm is around the same intensity. That would be my logic anyway.

Oneiric 3 · 11-01-2015 11:59pm

DMI 18z for Wens 06 hrs:

Broadly speaking, seems to be placed slightly further east, and slightly further south, than on the 12z. Also seems quite messy.

maquiladora · 12-01-2015 12:04am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It's interesting that night before Oiche na goaithe moire, there was a fall of snow.

The sequel? :P

Oneiric 3 · 12-01-2015 12:14am

maquiladora wrote: »

The sequel? :P

I wish! Clip from the TV program on Oíche na gaoithe móire the other night. I don't think we'll be seeing anything quite on this scale this time around.

gozunda · 12-01-2015 12:14am

Rougies wrote: »

Isn't that a good thing though? The weaker trees were taken out last year so there should be less damage from fallen trees if this storm is around the same intensity. That would be my logic anyway.

No - the trees taken down by the violent gusts weren't weak but were generally healthy and mature. The absolute force if the wind snapped many trees in two or simply uprooted them. That event has removed much of the most valuable trees from the landscape. Sad to see so few left now ...

Nabber · 12-01-2015 12:18am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I wish! Clip from the TV program on Oíche na gaoithe móire the other night. I don't think we'll be seeing anything quite on this scale this time around.

Looks like a wizzard looking in the window

maquiladora · 12-01-2015 12:24am

For what it's worth, 18Z NAVGEM has 10m winds inland at 50 kts.

Harps · 12-01-2015 12:25am

German Hi-res ICON model looks very messy as well, could be an interesting front preceding the main event though with very squally wind and rain

The developing storm shows up nicely on this view..

munsterlegend · 12-01-2015 12:29am

maquiladora wrote: »

For what it's worth, 18Z NAVGEM has 10m winds inland at 50 kts.

Is that not very reliable Maq? The south looks badly hit there.

maquiladora · 12-01-2015 12:32am

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is that not very reliable Maq? The south looks badly hit there.

Yeah it's a pretty poor model. Hence, for what it's worth.

Hopefully we'll have agreement between the models tomorrow.

maquiladora · 12-01-2015 12:34am

leahyl wrote: »

What strength of winds could be expected on the south coast?

Just too early to say. Maybe around 120-130. Could be a bit weaker or stronger depending on how things go.

Aimsir · 12-01-2015 1:10am

gozunda wrote: »

No - the trees taken down by the violent gusts weren't weak but were generally healthy and mature. The absolute force if the wind snapped many trees in two or simply uprooted them. That event has removed much of the most valuable trees from the landscape. Sad to see so few left now ...

the ground was also very wet and the tree roots did not hold as well as they would have in dry/solid earth

Oneiric 3 · 12-01-2015 1:16am

Nabber wrote: »

Looks like a wizzard looking in the window

T'wasn't a wizard,

t'was the banshee.

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2015 1:32am

Another model resource coming into play would be RGEM, the higher resolution version of the GEM that goes out 48h and ends at 16W, but should be useful on the next two runs, at the moment the 18z version is showing the low rapidly deepening from 980 mb at 28W. What's key here is very low heights and a sharp trough in the jet stream phasing over Ireland during Wednesday. This is why perhaps the GFS is on to something with its very intense depictions. The low SST values in mid-Atlantic would allow this to occlude a bit faster than if the warm sector was being pumped full of higher moisture levels. I'm glad to see we have a level one in place already and would suggest going to level 2 if 00z models are all showing at least that level of wind gust potential (right now the GFS p is at level 3, the rest are a strong level 2 except maybe ECM closer to mid-level 2).

Somebody was asking about wind speeds for Cork and also for east coast. From the less dire models would say peak gusts 65 knots Cork and 62 Dublin. From the GFSp would say 75 and 70 (well into damage range) and peak gusts at more exposed locations 85-90. As you know you can double those and take off about 10% to estimate km/hr. Also while the track is being called more southerly (with reason) the entire country does get hit by the strong winds, this does not mean Ulster gets off lighter, just that the gradient is very strong from Malin Head to Kinsale. The comparison to the reconstruction of maps for 1839 is as follows: GFSp would come within 20% of that gradient, not quite as deep a low (the reconstruction says mid 930s rather than the old 918 figure that one used to see) but almost the same gradient. Also the synoptic pattern is broadly similar with the colder air in place 24h before storm time, and strong modified arctic high pressure over the northeast U.S. as I found in records from Providence, RI during the storm period. Indicates perhaps a similar evolution.

Tactical has given us a very good motto there, failure to prepare is preparation to fail, anyway we got through last winter's major event with some good advance warnings and so if this evolves the same way we should follow the same steps. Would say if you consider yourself knowledgeable and want to vote on level 3 status when the time comes, be on line around 1900h Tuesday, we will probably open up the discussion to that topic if there's a general feeling that it's coming in strong level 2 or worse.

RED L4 0TH · 12-01-2015 1:33am

Thought this 850 hpa chart was worth sticking up as it shows the massive contrast in temperatures east of Newfoundland in quite a short distance for early Wednesday. This probably acts as a potent fuel for potential deep depressions.

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2015 7:29am

The 00z model runs appear to be converging now, would say the general idea would be more level 2 than 3, which is good, and a slight nudge to the north on average. Not far enough north to allow the south coast to escape from the level 2 wind gusts but far enough to make Donegal and Mayo appear more in the strongest wind zone now. As more slight changes may take place would not read too much into this, main thing is that we could probably go to level 2 on this advisory now. Timing while mostly overnight should include afternoon hours of Wednesday as the squally front will be very quick to race through ahead of the low.

Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

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