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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

  • 04-04-2020 10:56pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    It has been well publicised that supply in Dublin has increased dramatically over the last couple of months. This IrishTimes article claims we have an 86% increase in available properties.

    Comparison of 2 bedroom flats under €2000 from February to now

    Map from that thread showing the supply increase Apartments - https://imgur.com/xUObSsj

    Prices still haven't significantly reduced to match the current supply. We have other pressure from people who have lost jobs, salary reductions etc.
    There is likely to be a lag before we see a reduction across the board but it should come.

    I think many of the Airbnb's that have come back onto the market recently, initially thought they would just make them available for 2-3 month short term rentals and then return to their illegal business after this is over but many of them are seeing the truth that this will likely last longer and even after restrictions lift it will be 6-12 months before confidence gets restored around the world in travel and in turn demand for Airbnb. I expect to see more of these being offered as full long term rentals as the penny drops. I laugh looking at some of them that have come onto the market as 2-3 month rentals at over market rate even before this mess. Some people live in an alternative reality.

    I think the prices will drop as I know from talking to people who are looking at the moment that they are going in with offers for places well below asking and getting accepted.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    I think the prices will drop as I know from talking to people who are looking at the moment that they are going in with offers for places well below asking and getting accepted.

    Can you tell what price range and % drop?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Can you tell what price range and % drop?

    I have no idea. Supply and demand will adjust this accordingly in the marker over time but at the moment it is completely out of whack. New properties coming onto the market are doing so at the current market rate so as of yet no real adjustment has taken place.


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    I have no idea. Supply and demand will adjust this accordingly in the marker over time but at the moment it is completely out of whack. Properties coming onto the market at doing so at the current market rate so as of yet no real adjustment has taken place.

    You mentioned you were talking to people who had obtained reductions? I am guessing it is over 10% otherwise would not be sizeable IMHO.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Mr.S wrote: »
    Short term, yes they’ll probably drop due to the non-existent demand.

    Long term, after all this goes back to normal - we’re still going to have a supply issue and rent prices will climb again.

    Let’s assume life goes back to normal in September, why would rent prices continue to drop massively? The “bounce back” would presumably be quick and strong.

    We we will most likely have a decent amount of normaility returned by September but without a vaccine the landscape of travel will look very different for much longer. Even just returning confidence of people to travel will take time. Confidence in self catering style accommodation will also be a hard sell for the foreseeable future. I think the outlook for Airbnb is very bleak for at least a year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    You mentioned you were talking to people who had obtained reductions? I am guessing it is over 10% otherwise would not be sizeable IMHO.

    2300 -- > 1800. That Irish Times article I quoted notes simialr kind of reductions of people going in below asking.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,092 ✭✭✭DubCount


    We don't have a real market at the moment. Agents are closed for viewings, businesses are closed, people are staying at home. Its really hard to base "movement" on what is happening at this time.

    Some of the impacts of this will last longer than the lockdown. There will be some level of economic downturn/recession. Unemployment will rise. Rents reduced to deal with short term shock will be caught in RPZ restrictions and cant bounce quickly.

    How supply v demand will move when life gets back to normal is difficult to predict. Will some stock go back into AirBnB. Will more Landlords sell up. Will there be more HAP funded tenants chasing rental property. Will the number of properties being built be impacted.

    For 12 months from now, I think its too early to call where we will be. I believe its too early to call long term impacts until lockdown is over and we can see the position unfold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    Mr.S wrote: »
    Let’s assume life goes back to normal in September, why would rent prices continue to drop massively? The “bounce back” would presumably be quick and strong.

    Just on this point. The experts have given up on a bounce back. This situation has already got too big and gone on too long allow a V shaped recovery. All the economic predictions out there point to half of COVID job losses being permanent. And earnings will take a hit across the board.

    A number of weeks ago there was hope of a bounce back but it's gone.

    https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/goodbye-leprechaun-economics-hello-another-grim-milestone-1.4219469?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/goodbye-leprechaun-economics-hello-another-grim-milestone-1.4219469


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,781 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Short term, many are back on the market, removed from Air BnB due to C19 and lack of tourists.

    Tenants need to be mindful of the 6 month (Part 4) rule as I insignia the same properties will be back on the short term let scene in 6 months.


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Gumbo wrote: »

    Tenants need to be mindful of the 6 month (Part 4) rule as I insignia the same properties will be back on the short term let scene in 6 months.

    Surely anyone signing anything would look for a 12 month lease? Most of the new stock that I am seeing is looking for 12 months...


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Surely anyone signing anything would look for a 12 month lease? Most of the new stock that I am seeing is looking for 12 months...

    Written tenancy agreements are not a requirement. So if the agreement is verbal, or only 6 months written tenancy is offered, then it’ll be a take it or leave it situation.

    Personally, the reasons for me choosing to leave the rental market as tenants move out hasn’t changed. I have an Airbnb house that I am just going to wait it out with, and put it up on Airbnb again when things open again later in the year. If rents are falling, the benefits of Airbnb will be even more obvious.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Personally, the reasons for me choosing to leave the rental market as tenants move out hasn’t changed. I have an Airbnb house that I am just going to wait it out with, and put it up on Airbnb again when things open again later in the year. If rents are falling, the benefits of Airbnb will be even more obvious.

    Where do you expect demand for the Airbnb market to come from when we reopen? Is it in Dublin?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭runswithascript


    Dav010 wrote: »
    I have an Airbnb house that I am just going to wait it out with, and put it up on Airbnb again when things open again later in the year. If rents are falling, the benefits of Airbnb will be even more obvious.

    Shame on you. You are a major part of the property problem in our society.

    I hope we will soon have a government here that will restrict or even better yet ban Airbnb completely, just like these places:

    https://www.passiveairbnb.com/top-cities-and-countries-where-airbnb-is-illegal-or-restricted/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭KilOit


    Shame on you. You are a major part of the property problem in our society.

    I hope we will soon have a government here that will restrict or even better yet ban Airbnb completely, just like these places:

    https://www.passiveairbnb.com/top-cities-and-countries-where-airbnb-is-illegal-or-restricted/

    His property to do what he likes with it, even using it as a Airbnb he is benefiting tourism.
    your beef should be with the government not building enough properties or selling 95% of new apartments to vulture funds


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    KilOit wrote: »
    His property to do what he likes with it, even using it as a Airbnb he is benefiting tourism.
    your beef should be with the government not building enough properties or selling 95% of new apartments to vulture funds

    There are now laws in place since last July which mean in many cases people need to apply for a license if they want to use the property as an Airbnb.
    The maximum fine for non-compliance with planning breaches is a €5,000 fine or six months imprisonment – or both.

    Edit - It has been pretty clear that these laws are being completely ignored - Link


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭runswithascript


    KilOit wrote: »
    His property to do what he likes with it, even using it as a Airbnb he is benefiting tourism.
    your beef should be with the government not building enough properties or selling 95% of new apartments to vulture funds

    Yes right now Airbnb is perfectly legal but just because someone can do something, does not make it right.

    With any luck the collapse of the Airbnb market will continue for a long time.

    What tourism?

    Up until now there has not been a tourism crisis, the rental property crisis has long been with us.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,853 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    I think there will be a short - ish term drop in rents, but construction is now frozen. People arent going to emigrate like before, as we are all in the same boat. I believe the population is still growing. They are going to do down alright, but I dont think this will be a case of years of drops, it really depends on how quick the situation with this virus evolves...

    I mean, how many students etc gave up expensive leases in dublin, to move back home and gave up their accomodation here, assuming probably correctly, this will go on for months and also that finding new accomodation in short term, would be easy IF needs be? if college starts again in September and classroom based lessons resume, they will all be back looking for accomodation...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,853 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Shame on you. You are a major part of the property problem in our society.

    I hope we will soon have a government here that will restrict or even better yet ban Airbnb completely, just like these places:

    https://www.passiveairbnb.com/top-cities-and-countries-where-airbnb-is-illegal-or-restricted/

    laughable! the government are to blame for the lack of supply, local government mainly, blocking anything over a few floors in dublin, tourism generates billions for the country and employment. Blame the morons responsible for the idiocy! Also when you are getting hit with a fifty percent marginal rate of tax, people are going to go for the bigger bucks, again go back to government. Sick of these misplaced, ignorant attacks!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭runswithascript


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    laughable! the government are to blame for the lack of supply, local government mainly, blocking anything over a few floors in dublin, tourism generates billions for the country and employment. Blame the morons responsible for the idiocy! Also when you are getting hit with a fifty percent marginal rate of tax, people are going to go for the bigger bucks, again go back to government. Sick of these misplaced, ignorant attacks!

    Yes, all of that is a problem but to believe Airbnb is not is folly. Tourism would still go on without Airbnb, the greater problem is the property crisis, and again right now and for what looks like a long time to come: what tourism.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Talk of AirBnB is all a bit academic in the current environment.

    I suspect that will remain the case for at least the remainder of 2020.

    My guess; AirBnB hosts are about to see several years of healthy profits completely wiped out. Hundreds of ex-STLs will be returned to residential use.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭runswithascript


    Graham wrote: »
    My guess; AirBnB hosts are about to see several years of healthy profits completely wiped out.

    I imagine it would be difficult for people who cannot find or afford to live closer than more than an hour or two away from their places of work or study to be sympathetic.

    It would be prudent for these hosts to cut their losses by starting to let their properties.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    I imagine it would be difficult for people who cannot find or afford to live closer than more than an hour or two away from their places of work or study to be sympathetic.

    It would be prudent for these hosts to cut their losses by starting to let their properties.

    That penny will eventually drop but may take a little time. My guess is many of them haven't actually considered how little demand there will be for the properties in the coming year and maybe beyond. Hopefully they will come on quite quickly as those who do wlll see the best rent deals now rather than if they wait and supply keeps increasing.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    It would be prudent for these hosts to cut their losses by starting to let their properties.

    They are, just look at daft.

    The usual giveaway is the obligatory rolled towels in each of the bedroom photos.


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    That penny will eventually drop but may take a little time. My guess is many of them haven't actually considered how little demand there will be for the properties in the coming year and maybe beyond. Hopefully they will come on quite quickly as those who do wlll see the best rent deals now rather than if they wait and supply keeps increasing.

    Yes it will be interesting to see if some AirBnB'ers get out in front and just get their place let ASAP or will wait for a number of months in the hope that it goes back to the way it was.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,874 ✭✭✭Edgware


    If you are letting a property e.g. a one bed and pulling in 15000/16000 a year you would need a high occupancy level with an Airbnb to match that. With letting of a properly organised property you could go 12 months without having any contact with tenants. In an Airbnb you have cleaning, laundry, taking bookings etc all the time. Hard to see that this is worth whatever extra income you might get


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Edgware wrote: »
    If you are letting a property e.g. a one bed and pulling in 15000/16000 a year you would need a high occupancy level with an Airbnb to match that. With letting of a properly organised property you could go 12 months without having any contact with tenants. In an Airbnb you have cleaning, laundry, taking bookings etc all the time. Hard to see that this is worth whatever extra income you might get

    Well it is obviously worth it for many landlords to do exactly this.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Well it is obviously worth it for many landlords to do exactly this.

    was


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    Graham wrote: »
    was

    Is there anything that will stop these properties going back to Airbnb once the short term let's are up? Will the fact a property was in the residential rental market make it easier to enforce the law?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Economics initially. I don't expect there to be any significant demand for STLs for the rest of the year.

    By the time demand does return, I would expect the local authorities have their enforcement teams/processes firmly established.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Reversal wrote: »
    Is there anything that will stop these properties going back to Airbnb once the short term let's are up? Will the fact a property was in the residential rental market make it easier to enforce the law?

    Some of them are being offered as 12 month rentals already. So they won't be returning to Airbnb. Most I see are being offered as 2-3 month rentals. I think they will soon start to realise that the demand for the properties on Airbnb will be low for much longer than when we see most of the restrictions lifted and will will join others in putting them into the long term rental pool. In many cases they won't have a choice as they will get into massive financial difficulty if these properties aren't generating any revenue.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 234 ✭✭headtheball14


    Edgware wrote: »
    If you are letting a property e.g. a one bed and pulling in 15000/16000 a year you would need a high occupancy level with an Airbnb to match that. With letting of a properly organised property you could go 12 months without having any contact with tenants. In an Airbnb you have cleaning, laundry, taking bookings etc all the time. Hard to see that this is worth whatever extra income you might get
    If you have an agency running it then you can have very limited involvement in an Airbnb. You have the potential of a let that causes one or two nights damage, along with some level of coverage of damages in an Airbnb. This is compared to the potential of a year or two of not receiving rent along with legal action to remove a tenant, the tax treatment is the same more or less currently .
    I think what’s interesting is the complete lack of enforcement or ability to enforce the Airbnb regulations that were brought in but the effect actually limiting the income that could be made from Airbnb has made.
    At the moment in general, current taxation doesn’t encourage activity, this may change if there is increases in property tax for example.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    .


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Some of them are being offered as 12 month rentals already. So they won't be returning to Airbnb. Most I see are being offered as 2-3 month rentals. I think they will soon start to realise that the demand for the properties on Airbnb will be low for much longer than when we see most of the restrictions lifted and will will join others in putting them into the long term rental pool. In many cases they won't have a choice as they will get into massive financial difficulty if these properties aren't generating any revenue.

    Looking around south Dublin and you have to laugh at the ex AirBnb rentals for close to 2k but with **** 3 months lease only**** in the description. As if there is much demand for €2k/pm 3 months rentals in the regular rental market so the property owner can get back to Airbnb-ing it when it suits them leaving you barely settled before you’re back to square one.

    https://www.daft.ie/22018726


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    I suspect those landlords are in for a short, sharp re-education cisk.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    cisk wrote: »
    Looking around south Dublin and you have to laugh at the ex AirBnb rentals for close to 2k but with **** 3 months lease only**** in the description. As if there is much demand for €2k/pm 3 months rentals in the regular rental market so the property owner can get back to Airbnb-ing it when it suits them leaving you barely settled before you’re back to square one.

    https://www.daft.ie/22018726

    That is delusional. I wouldn't imagine there is any market at all for short term leases like that at the moment.
    I remember in 2008 I rented an apartment. When the year was up, in 2009, I was able to negotiate a 25% reduction. Other apartments in the same building were advertised at that price. I am not sure if it will be the same thing this time.
    Will landlords be unwilling to reduce the rent given that they will be then only allowed to increase by 4% a year? It would take several years to get back to previous level.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Graham wrote: »
    Talk of AirBnB is all a bit academic in the current environment.

    I suspect that will remain the case for at least the remainder of 2020.

    My guess; AirBnB hosts are about to see several years of healthy profits completely wiped out. Hundreds of ex-STLs will be returned to residential use.

    While I agree with your first two points, the third is rubbish.

    When you say “wiped out”, the income made for STLs were multiples of rental income, in my case X3, I’m sure in more popular tourist areas, it was even more. 6 months of this, compared to renting, will not wipe out profits made over the last couple of years. Your post is more wishful thinking than reality.

    Profits were certainly an important consideration for many owners when deciding to enter STL market, problems with the residential tenancy are equally if not more important. That has not changed, a few properties going back will not make any difference. What would be more interesting is whether 2-3 months after flights/tourism has resumed, Airbnb listings have fallen. It is possible that some properties where tenants leave will decide to take the opportunity to enter the STL market.

    I read in a recent newspaper article that Airbnb’s account for about 3% of rental properties, Graham a few hundred going back to rental sector isn’t going to make a lot of difference, in fact, if every Airbnb changed to rentals, it still wouldn’t make a significant difference.

    Also, some landlords may also take the opportunity to sell when tenants leave. So while there is a lot of speculation and wishful thinking, a lot of people still need places to rent, all building has stopped, landlords are selling (and more likely to do so if rents fall) and the pariah that is the Airbnb host, may hold, flip flop, or go into rental sector. No one can be sure.

    The fact is, a cumulation of multiple factors will contribute to rents falling, staying the same, rising. And while there are a number of unknown variables, what we know for certain is that new builds are stalled, landlords have been selling off properties and STLs are a tiny portion of properties.


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Dav010 wrote: »
    When you say “wiped out”, the income made for STLs were multiples of rental income, in my case X3, I’m sure in more popular tourist areas, it was even more. 6 months of this, compared to renting, will not wipe out profits made over the last couple of years. Your post is more wishful thinking than reality.

    Maybe you're right Dav010.

    Maybe ex-AirBnB properties are somehow insulated from property price turmoil and competition from several hundred ex-STLs all hitting an unsteady market simultaneously.

    Maybe ex-AirBnB properties will sell quickly at pre-pandemic prices.

    Maybe hundreds of ex-AirBnB rentals hitting the market at once aren't going to drive down market rents before locking themselves into those new market rents +4% for years to come.

    Maybe (if/when) the STL market starts to return, local authorities aren't going to find it easier to play whack-a-mole with a handful of new unathorised STLs each month rather than the current cast of thousands.

    Maybe.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Graham wrote: »
    Maybe you're right Dav010.

    Maybe ex-AirBnB properties are somehow insulated from property price turmoil and competition from several hundred ex-STLs all hitting an unsteady market simultaneously.

    Maybe ex-AirBnB properties will sell quickly at pre-pandemic prices.

    Maybe hundreds of ex-AirBnB rentals hitting the market at once aren't going to drive down market rents before locking themselves into those new market rents +4% for years to come.

    Maybe (if/when) the STL market starts to return, local authorities aren't going to find it easier to play whack-a-mole with a handful of new unathorised STLs each month rather than the current cast of thousands.

    Maybe.

    Yip, that’s pretty much it in a nutshell, you can speculate and/or wish something to happen, but the market is fickle. When rents were at an all time high, LLs were selling, I can’t imagine many will be reversing investment strategy if prices are falling.

    I doubt too many Hosts worry about the LA, I’m not aware of a single prosecution so far, in fact it seems the legislation is largely being ignored. I’m sure LA staff will be thrilled at the prospect ot talking to tourists from other countries, face to face, as is necessary to reach the threshold to prove a STL has occurred.

    Time will tell. But in relation to Airbnb, gauging how it has effected listing should be postponed until the tourism market reopens. Listing numbers may dip now as owners rent for a while, or sell, but may rise again as new properties list and existing ones return. Maybe it will drop, maybe if rents fall, Airbnb numbers will go up.

    Maybe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Dav010 wrote: »
    I read in a recent newspaper article that Airbnb’s account for about 3% of rental properties, Graham a few hundred going back to rental sector isn’t going to make a lot of difference, in fact, if every Airbnb changed to rentals, it still wouldn’t make a significant difference.

    Can you provide a link to the article? This thread is specifically about Dublin. 4700 entire apartments or houses plus all the rooms in other rentals. Releasing even half of these back on to the market as long term rentals would clearly have a very significant impact.

    Here is the data in Dublin

    I wonder how many planning permissions Dublin has on its books for Airbnb rentals? I hope they are using the data available during this time to collect information on properties in breach and impose the current fines where appropriate.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Dav010 wrote: »
    But in relation to Airbnb, gauging how it has effected listing should be postponed until the tourism market reopens.

    Absolutely right.

    All we can do for now is speculate how the AirBnB/STL landscape might change.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Releasing even half of these back on to the market as long term rentals would clearly have a very significant impact.

    That would be my guess, in the short term at least.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Can you provide a link to the article? This thread is specifically about Dublin. 4700 entire apartments or houses plus all the rooms in other rentals. Releasing even half of these back on to the market as long term rentals would clearly have a very significant impact.

    Here is the data in Dublin

    I wonder how many planning permissions Dublin has on its books for Airbnb rentals? I hope they are using the data available during this time to collect information on properties in breach and impose the current fines where appropriate.

    When you consider that owners, including myself, report that hundreds of people apply for rentals when they are advertised, a few hundred properties does not make a significant difference. All those Airbnb properties will not return to the rental market. From reports about numbers who applied for PP, it would seem Hosts are ignoring the regs. Collecting the info about short lets is easy, just open Airbnb/Booking.com etc, but having the info is not enough to prosecute. The LA have to prove money was paid, catch the guest in the property and confirm they were guests who paid for a short let. A tall order to do in any meaningful number of cases, LA staff literally have to watch the property to catch the guest.

    I’ll look for the article.

    Edit: The most recent CSO figures on rentals was 500k in 2016, Airbnb listings in peak season/summer 2019 was just under 5k.

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/tr/


    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/scraped-data-suggests-that-most-airbnb-revenue-comes-from-renting-full-homes-for-more-than-90-days-4700461-Jun2019/?amp=1


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Talk of enforcement is pretty meaningless in the context of zero market.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Graham wrote: »
    Talk of enforcement is pretty meaningless in the context of zero market.

    And zero staff.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Dav010 wrote: »
    When you consider that owners, including myself, report that hundreds of people apply for rentals when they are advertised, a few hundred properties does not make a significant difference. All those Airbnb properties will not return to the rental market. From reports about numbers who applied for PP, it would seem Hosts are ignoring the regs. Collecting the info about short lets is easy, just open Airbnb/Booking.com etc, but having the info is not enough to prosecute. The LA have to prove money was paid, catch the guest in the property and confirm they were guests who paid for a short let. A tall order to do in any meaningful number of cases, LA staff literally have to watch the property to catch the guest.

    I’ll look for the article.

    I am not saying they will all return to LT rentals but saying that they don't represent a significant proportion of rentals in Dublin that contribute massively to the current problems in the market is disingenuous. You said in your last post that even if they were all released back to the market it wouldn't make any difference and that is clearly not true. We are not talking a few hundred but almost five thousand properties.

    There is a pretty simple solution to gather actual proof of doing dummy rentals. Considering it is very obvious when places are in breach and success rate would be extremely high to cover costs of having people rent the places undercover. for the purposes of gathering evidence for prosecutions. I am sure a private company would be willing to undertake the task considering it would currently be an extremely lucrative contract. (Edit - Obviously right now, not so much :))


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I am not saying they will all return to LT rentals but saying that they don't represent a significant proportion of rentals in Dublin that contribute massively to the current problems in the market is disingenuous. You said in your last post that even if they were all released back to the market it wouldn't make any difference and that is clearly not true. We are not talking a few hundred but almost five thousand properties.

    There is a pretty simple solution to gather actual proof of doing dummy rentals. Considering it is very obvious when places are in breach and success rate would be extremely high to cover costs of having people rent the places undercover. for the purposes of gathering evidence for prosecutions. I am sure a private company would be willing to undertake the task considering it would currently be an extremely lucrative contract.

    Do you believe 1% is a significant change? And that would be if all properties returned.

    Getting the evidence is not easy:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/dublin-city-council-seeks-400-000-to-set-up-taskforce-to-crack-down-on-airbnbs-1.3708469


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,896 ✭✭✭sabat


    Dav010 wrote: »

    Personally, the reasons for me choosing to leave the rental market as tenants move out hasn’t changed. I have an Airbnb house that I am just going to wait it out with, and put it up on Airbnb again when things open again later in the year. If rents are falling, the benefits of Airbnb will be even more obvious.

    Remember, when the hotels reopen they'll be selling 4* rooms in good locations for about €50 or €60 just to keep the lights on and these are the rates you'll be competing against. This will probably be the case until summer 2021, or it could be the new normal for long after that, seeing as there was a glut of new hotels built or being built recently. Unless you have a unique or very well located house it might be more profitable to just get regular tenants, especially when you factor in vacancies, cleaning, maintenance, assorted airbnb hassles etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Do you believe 1% is a significant change? And that would be if all properties returned.

    All dumped on the market tomorrow. Yes it would represent a massive change. There is usually about 1.5k of these type of properties on Daft for rental in Dublin at any one time each day. Are they going to help with the housing crisis in Dublin, NO. Are they going to help with the rent situation in this particular sector of the market, massively.
    Dav010 wrote: »

    I don't see what is so hard judging on that article. It is exactly as I suggested and given the rewards of shooting fish in a barrell for a few months the upside would be massive. As I said let a private company take it on and you have no start up costs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    sabat wrote: »
    Remember, when the hotels reopen they'll be selling 4* rooms in good locations for about €50 or €60 just to keep the lights on and these are the rates you'll be competing against. This will probably be the case until summer 2021, or it could be the new normal for long after that, seeing as there was a glut of new hotels built or being built recently.

    This is a very good point, international travel is going to take a long time to recover to previous levels so if STL's are going to sit it out and compete with hotels at lower rates then it is going to be interesting.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,853 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    the biggest issue is, tourism has stopped and huge amounts of students etc, have returned to their family homes outside dublin. Supply is now stopped, population is still growing. I mean they would have provided what in dublin this year in terms of new units? ten thousand units + probably and prices were not dropping.

    there will be drops now obviously, but if colleges , english schools ( maybe before) etc are back in september etc, that will come to an end...

    if this turns out to be on the lesser end of the scale of disaster, rents could be cheapest, during early summer, when leases on college places are up and supply normally increases (to be taken up often by more tourists, but this summer or at least early summer , that is highly unlikely)...


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    I'd anticipate there will be almost no tourism for the remainder of the year and what bit we do get is going to be nowhere near enough to sustain most STLs.

    When the tourist market does eventually return, most of the current STLs will be long gone effectively giving local authorities a very manageable clean slate when it comes to controlling new entrants to the STL market.


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