FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

TheMilkyPirate · 15-01-2021 1:37pm

GFS control run giving some nice eye candy out in FI.

15-01-2021 2:45pm

lucernarian wrote: »

Rome had lying snow in February 2018 too...

Untill it got south of an easterly ,our easterly which is my point
You don't want to be south of an easterly if its cold you're looking for because by definition you are south of the polar front which is the reverse zonality further north if you follow?

Meteorite58 · 15-01-2021 3:09pm

ECM still showing wintry precipitation in the latter half of next week more so towards the end of the week, this mornings run showing frontal snow opportunities but a long way off of course to be anywhere near reliable but will be watching to see if this becomes a feature, GFS also showing snow opportunities next weekend. Might be short lived though as it looks like the Jet is firing up introducing more Zonal weather ??? Wondering if weather might get a bit more lively after next weekend ?? A bit more interesting.

sicknotexi · 15-01-2021 8:16pm

ECM 12z looking like a decent run and then those Iberian heights come and smash the dream. What causes them to be so volatile?

nacho libre · 15-01-2021 9:38pm

sicknotexi wrote: »

ECM 12z looking like a decent run and then those Iberian heights come and smash the dream. What causes them to be so volatile?

Someone might have a better explanation, but I think you can trace it back to the ridge to the west of Greenland. If we had a true Greenland High instead, it would likely mean heights would eventually lower in Iberia.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2021 11:14pm

...

sicknotexi · 15-01-2021 11:44pm

I'd bank the gfs para. Decent snowfall Saturday week morning covering a decent portion of the island. Yes,indeedy, who cares if we don't get a month long freeze.

Edit:More snow follows on the Sunday and even Monday.

nacho libre · 16-01-2021 12:03am

A good run.
It's just a shame its 8 days away. Also that the GFS Para is not verifying very well compared to the old GFS. The less said about the old GFS run the better.

Dickie10 · 16-01-2021 12:07am

is there looking like cold dry weather next weekend? i need to put out slurry and want a few dry days in a row , pref even hard frost.

sicknotexi · 16-01-2021 12:18am

nacho libre wrote: »

A good run.
It's just a shame its 8 days away. Also that the GFS Para is not verifying very well compared to the old GFS. The less said about the old GFS run the better.

Let me enjoy my digital snow.

Reversal · 16-01-2021 6:03pm

UKMO at t144 rebuilding mid Atlantic ridge with stronger heights around Greenland too.

6034073

This overall NH pattern is certainly nothing to be complained about, showing at the edge of the reliable timeframe. Who knows where we'd go from there. But I wouldn't rule out a decent blocking set up. If I was to get off the fence and give my hunch/hopecast. I think over the next few days we might see a trend in the models to drain the tropospheric vortex away from North America and GL, leaving an elongated trop vortex reaching from Eastern Siberia across Eurasia into Europe. Like this;

6034073

Gonzo · 16-01-2021 6:10pm

We haven't had a response yet to that SSW so anything can happen over the next 4 to 5 weeks. Signals for February are starting to look interesting. In the short term it looks like we will lose any influence from blocking as the Greenland High is just too far over on the Canadian side and the Iberian high is set to strengthen so we may have a more Atlantic driven second half of January but this is yet to be determined.

There are hints in the models that as we move into February we may start to see a response to the SSW which could bring back blocking to a more favourable position for us and the Iberian/Azores high could collapse back south-westwards allowing colder air to dig in easier. The past week has been very dissapointing but I've a feeling we will be back on the ramp at some stage over the next few weeks.

bazlers · 16-01-2021 6:30pm

Runs are not too shabby this eve. Someone will benefit the second half of next week.

Artane2002 · 16-01-2021 7:39pm

we are actually seeing a response to the SSW, just not a favourable one. look at the easterlies stretching from Russia to Canada, that is remarkable. we're just way too far south to really benefit from the pattern.

ECH1-168.GIF?16-0

ninebeanrows · 16-01-2021 7:49pm

Flooding Tuesday-Wednesday to heavy snow for many parts of Ireland on Wednesday PM/Thursday on latest ECMWF run!

Very wet snow but some places would get plastered.

snowstorm445 · 16-01-2021 7:56pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

we are actually seeing a response to the SSW, just not a favourable one. look at the easterlies stretching from Russia to Canada, that is remarkable. we're just way too far south to really benefit from the pattern.

Iceland could do well out of that by the looks of it :pac:

16-01-2021 8:31pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

we are actually seeing a response to the SSW, just not a favourable one. look at the easterlies stretching from Russia to Canada, that is remarkable. we're just way too far south to really benefit from the pattern.

Yes but that's like an elastic band really
Something flukey and it snaps
Thats when the fun actually starts believe it or not

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Flooding Tuesday-Wednesday to heavy snow for many parts of Ireland on Wednesday PM/Thursday on latest ECMWF run!

Very wet snow but some places would get plastered.

Some of us will be glued to Radio Éireann at 5 to 8 in the morning for the latest

Looking at the isobars, I'd imagine Dublin,certainly higher parts of it has a better chance of being plastered than Donegal due to the long fetch marine modification

nacho libre · 16-01-2021 10:21pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

we are actually seeing a response to the SSW, just not a favourable one. look at the easterlies stretching from Russia to Canada, that is remarkable. we're just way too far south to really benefit from the pattern.

Excatly. That reverse flow is a direct consequence of the SSW. It simply would not happen without the SSW.
If the brief split in the strat worked out favourably we could be looking east eventually. There are hints that this might happen, but given the story so far i'm not pinning my hopes on it. Lets just see if this event for Tuesday into Wednesday comes off.

Gonzo · 16-01-2021 10:32pm

I'm not convinced that what we are seeing now are effects from the major SSW itself as that only happened first week of January. However there were a series of small to moderate warmings through December and those could be having some affect. The warming is still going on so there are opportunities for bigger effects and hopefully more favourable alignments developing over the next few weeks.

Danno · 16-01-2021 10:33pm

Johanna Donnelly mentioned hill snow and sleet for Wednesday as the polar front stalls and moves south.

Artane2002 · 16-01-2021 10:36pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I'm not convinced that what we are seeing now are effects from the major SSW itself as that only happened first week of January. However there were a series of small to moderate warmings through December and those could be having some affect. The warming is still going on so there are opportunities for bigger effects and hopefully more favourable alignments developing over the next few weeks.

I reckon the charts are showing SSW effects, as nacho said, you'd generally need a SSW to get such a reverse flow. these charts are roughly 20 days after the SSW, so that's a reasonable period of time for downwelling to occur. also, correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the 2009 SSW have an (almost) instant response?

nacho libre · 16-01-2021 10:41pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I'm not convinced that what we are seeing now are effects from the major SSW itself as that only happened first week of January. However there were a series of small to moderate warmings through December and those could be having some affect. The warming is still going on so there are opportunities for bigger effects and hopefully more favourable alignments developing over the next few weeks.

The moderate warmings would not induce this response we are currently seeing in the troposphere, the effects of an ssw can take anything from 10 to 20 days, so it's not that unusual for a response time of 10 days or so. You maybe right that the brief split and further warmings may cause the Vortex to stay weak, or in the optimum outcome; be obilterated. However be careful what you wish for as we may end up with spring being delayed.

Cluedo Monopoly · 16-01-2021 10:50pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Flooding Tuesday-Wednesday to heavy snow for many parts of Ireland on Wednesday PM/Thursday on latest ECMWF run!

Very wet snow but some places would get plastered.

Name checks out

Nqp15hhu · 16-01-2021 10:54pm

Danno wrote: »

Johanna Donnelly mentioned hill snow and sleet for Wednesday as the polar front stalls and moves south.

Where?

Danno · 16-01-2021 11:12pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Where?

She didn't mention locations but if you were to go by her graphics, Upland Down and Louth Counties and presumably upland Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wicklow, Dublin, Carlow and Wexford too.

Nqp15hhu · 16-01-2021 11:28pm

Danno wrote: »

She didn't mention locations but if you were to go by her graphics, Upland Down and Louth Counties and presumably upland Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wicklow, Dublin, Carlow and Wexford too.

Would it not cross my area first?

Danno · 16-01-2021 11:34pm

Widespread lying snow for at least half the island come Thursday morning at 6am according to the current ECM. :cool:

Snowc · 16-01-2021 11:42pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Would it not cross my area first?

No or Johanna would have said it

Nqp15hhu · 16-01-2021 11:48pm

Snowc wrote: »

No or Johanna would have said it

Well, that's not what the charts show. And very few people here watch the RTE weather forecast so they will barely mention us.

Gonzo · 16-01-2021 11:54pm

the tracking of that on Wednesday night will be very important. GFS 18z has it further east and missing most of Ireland, flirts with the south-east and gives a possible dumping of snow to much of England and Wales.

96-574UK.GIF?16-18

Reversal · 16-01-2021 11:57pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Well, that's not what the charts show. And very few people here watch the RTE weather forecast so they will barely mention us.

Well it is what the ECM shows. System running from SW to NE with snow developing on the northern/western flank. This evenings ECM shows precip effecting mainly SE of a line from Kerry to your location. However the surface flow is northerly throughout. Onshore winds will keep it as rain for much of northern Ulster. That's just this evenings ECM but that's what the Met Eireann will be going off.

The positioning could move quite a bit before Wednesday. That being said winds are always going to be northerly on the cold side of this system, the marine layer will prevent snow along the North coast this time.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-01-2021 12:20am

Artane2002 wrote: »

I reckon the charts are showing SSW effects, as nacho said, you'd generally need a SSW to get such a reverse flow. these charts are roughly 20 days after the SSW, so that's a reasonable period of time for downwelling to occur. also, correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the 2009 SSW have an (almost) instant response?

nacho libre wrote: »

The moderate warmings would not induce this response we are currently seeing in the troposphere, the effects of an ssw can take anything from 10 to 20 days, so it's not that unusual for a response time of 10 days or so. You maybe right that the brief split and further warmings may cause the Vortex to stay weak, or in the optimum outcome; be obilterated. However be careful what you wish for as we may end up with spring being delayed.

So far there has not been the complete downwelling of the SSW effects and what we're seeing seems to be some seasonal toing and froing between progessive and retrogressive patterns. It remains to be seen how things will progress.

Gonzo · 17-01-2021 2:10am

tonights GFS 18z for what it's worth is beginning to show alot of cold over us or very close to us at the very end of many of it's runs, mostly northerlies but some easterly action as well.

Danno · 17-01-2021 2:23am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Would it not cross my area first?

Unfortunately not when reading the current chart guidance, which I'm sure Met Eireann and UKMO are certainly glued to at this stage.

Land fetch under a cold north-westerly with marginal conditions seem to scupper your chances giving your location. However, there is also the possibility of model upgrades giving this event is still days off. But right now it looks like a bust for most of this island barring locations above 150m and towards the East, northeast and southeast.

nacho libre · 17-01-2021 3:58am

The GFS Parallel and the old GFS, after a milder few days, are showing a good northerly towards the end of January. What could possibly go wrong!
There is also a chance that the lobe of vortex may move from Asia to Canada later in the month
So perhaps we could be looking to the east at some stage.

bazlers · 17-01-2021 8:49am

Unfortunately we could be looking as far as February for a chance of any real bitter cold now. Just a cold very wet, windy miserable mess for this week. Maybe high ground might see some fun but from what we hoped lights years off.

esposito · 17-01-2021 9:33am

bazlers wrote: »

Unfortunately we could be looking as far as February for a chance of any real bitter cold now. Just a cold very wet, windy miserable mess for this week. Maybe high ground might see some fun but from what we hoped lights years off.

Disappointment after disappointment lately and it always seems to be the morning 0z models that strike a cruel blow. Getting tired of this model watching at this stage. No luck whatsoever.

17-01-2021 10:08am

Don't know why people bother with the gfs parallel
Useless model
The 00z ecm is another inching south of the pattern
Not long now I'd say before Joe Bastardi's comment of look out below becomes look out around you
Its the 17th of January btw
Not the 17th of March

nacho libre · 17-01-2021 11:48am

AuntySnow wrote: »

Don't know why people bother with the gfs parallel
Useless model
The 00z ecm is another inching south of the pattern
Not long now I'd say before Joe Bastardi's comment of look out below becomes look out around you
Its the 17th of January btw
Not the 17th of March

Are you sure about the para? I thought so too, but have read out to day 5 it is second only to the ECM recently. If it is in fact useless surely they will scrap it replacing the old GFS in mid February.
Regarding M.T Cranium's old friend Joe, i would love to know his thinking behind this idea.

Billcarson · 17-01-2021 12:11pm

bazlers wrote: »

Unfortunately we could be looking as far as February for a chance of any real bitter cold now. Just a cold very wet, windy miserable mess for this week. Maybe high ground might see some fun but from what we hoped lights years off.

I've been saying that for the last couplle of weeks . Forget second half of January!!!!!!!
Roll on February...........

nacho libre · 17-01-2021 12:32pm

Billcarson wrote: »

I've been saying that for the last couplle of weeks . Forget second half of January!!!!!!!
Roll on February...........

Have you been programming the CFS model?

You could well be right. We may get transient snowfall before then, but no deep cold spell is going to happen before February. If anything we may have to endure several days of milder south westerlies to see January out. It has been most frustrating so far that we have replaced one villian( the Russian High) only for another the Iberian High to take its place. Hopefully our luck will change in February!

Billcarson · 17-01-2021 1:12pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Have you been programming the CFS model?

You could well be right. We may get transient snowfall before then, but no deep cold spell is going to happen before February. If anything we may have to endure several days of milder south westerlies to see January out. It has been most frustrating so far that we have replaced one villian( the Russian High) only for another the Iberian High to take its place. Hopefully our luck will change in February!

Another part of winter that should be identified as giving no proper cold spells for many years is middle third of feb. For example I dont think there are many examples of bitterly cold and snowy valentine's days in years.
So if the cold comes in feb I think it will most likely be either the first week of the month or the last week of the month. I'd go for the first week of the month.

nacho libre · 17-01-2021 1:27pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Another part of winter that should be identified as giving no proper cold spells for many years is middle third of feb. For example I dont think there are many examples of bitterly cold and snowy valentine's days in years.
So if the cold comes in feb I think it will most likely be either the first week of the month or the last week of the month. I'd go for the first week of the month.

The CFS up till now has been consistently showing a blocking signal taking hold sometime in February. Of course this model is not to be taken too seriously, but it does get it right on occasion, such as the last cold spell. It goes on to show a very cold start to March and beyond.
If that happens mother nature is definitely trolling us.

Nqp15hhu · 17-01-2021 1:47pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The CFS up till now has been consistently showing a blocking signal taking hold sometime in February. Of course this model is not to be taken too seriously, but it does get it right on occasion, such as the last cold spell. It goes on to show a very cold start to March and beyond.
If that happens mother nature is definitely trolling us.

Snow can stick around in March if it is deep enough and the nights are >-5c

squarecircles · 17-01-2021 1:57pm

i am trying to post here about t 120 but why is boards.ie loading like its 1996,i have tried various browsers,all the same

nacho libre · 17-01-2021 1:59pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Snow can stick around in March if it is deep enough and the nights are >-5c

It can, but it will melt a bit during the day even with temperature at freezing or just below. We saw this back in March 2018. This is why a freeze before mid February would be preferable if it's going to happen at all.

Nqp15hhu · 17-01-2021 2:00pm

Hmm when I was in east Anglia the snow stayed around and did not melt.

17-01-2021 2:07pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Hmm when I was in east Anglia the snow stayed around and did not melt.

I had snow on the farm here in March 2018 for over 3 weeks ,it never cleared
Thats a north easterly for you
Storm Emma's drifts were 10ft high
More blizzards on the 18th
I'm sure similar might evolve if the inching south of the current pattern continues

17-01-2021 2:29pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Are you sure about the para? I thought so too, but have read out to day 5 it is second only to the ECM recently. If it is in fact useless surely they will scrap it replacing the old GFS in mid February.
Regarding M.T Cranium's old friend Joe, i would love to know his thinking behind this idea.

Too many times FI snowfests were on it that never verify is why I don't bother with it
We've basically had a Portugal bartlet for near a month now,my guess is that will retreat back to the azores before the pv is repaired
Ergo I'd expect the easterlies to drop another few hundred miles to where the 2018 ones were
At the rate of inching that does look like early February now but possibly sooner I'd expect
Hopefully not Easter:eek:

Slashermcguirk · 17-01-2021 3:04pm

There was very little if any thaw in Dublin and the east for a number of days in 2018. It stuck around quite a long time from memory, it snowed relentlessly

quote="nacho libre;115947924"]It can, but it will melt a bit during the day even with temperature at freezing or just below. We saw this back in March 2018. This is why a freeze before mid February would be preferable if it's going to happen at all.[/quote]

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST