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New Years Day/Monday Snow Discussion

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24567…10

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    #32
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    600m + could be impacted graupel and I ain't going up to check :p


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    #33
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    now Su Campu but never say unlikely i need my cold and snow.
    btw you thing off topic by slamming darkmans post not once but other times it is really patheic. forecast snow and i will love you lol.
    anything can happen in weather i need snow.


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    #34
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Can I just say I love DM's threads - puts his neck out and is right frequently. Equally however, the critical faculties of Su Campu are crucial to this site. He does a lot of posting, not just moderating, and contrary to what at least one contributor said he is very helpful to noobie posters. Keep up the good work both of you.

    Actually, as an aside, does Su Campu have a view on how Jan and Feb are likely to pan out? Perhaps one for another thread..........


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    #35
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Fear The Power Of Snow Bunny.

    http://www.shamanicjourney.com/article/6005/rabbit-power-

    Sweet dreams SB:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_KKo6ma1vQ


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    #36
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Can I just say I love DM's threads - puts his neck out and is right frequently. Equally however, the critical faculties of Su Campu are crucial to this site. He does a lot of posting, not just moderating, and contrary to what at least one contributor said he is very helpful to noobie posters. Keep up the good work both of you.

    Actually, as an aside, does Su Campu have a view on how Jan and Feb are likely to pan out? Perhaps one for another thread..........

    Snow. Oh lashings of snow! :rolleyes:


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    #37
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    now Su Campu but never say unlikely i need my cold and snow.
    btw you thing off topic by slamming darkmans post not once but other times it is really patheic. forecast snow and i will love you lol.
    anything can happen in weather i need snow.

    Cmon man sober up, it's 20 past one you have to go home to to your parents soon, drink a pint of water or something.


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    #38
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Snow. Oh lashings of snow! :rolleyes:

    You're cert to get 'post of the day' now! :)


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    #39
    delw
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Snow. Oh lashings of snow! :rolleyes:
    one of your best posts Su Campu :eek:
    hope it's not a wishcast ;):D


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    #40
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Cmon man sober up, it's 20 past one you have to go home to to your parents soon, drink a pint of water or something.
    I do not drink stop getting personal.


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    #41
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Cmon man sober up, it's 20 past one you have to go home to to your parents soon, drink a pint of water or something.
    tzfrantic wrote: »
    I do not drink fool and stop getting personal.
    :rolleyes:

    Any chance, we could get back on topic?

    The thread will be impossible for people to follow otherwise.


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    #42
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    i will let there be snow


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    #43
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    I do not drink fool and stop getting personal.

    Getting personal? I'm sure that would include calling somebody a fool? Sorry I was just giving you the benefit of the doubt by assuming drink was responsible for your incoherence, obviously not the case then...


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    #44
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    One user has already been banned and more will follow if things don't get back on topic here. FINAL WARNING.


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    #45
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    now Su Campu but never say unlikely i need my cold and snow.
    btw you thing off topic by slamming darkmans post not once but other times it is really patheic. forecast snow and i will love you lol.
    anything can happen in weather i need snow.

    FEAR THE POWER OF THE SNOW BUNNY

    and IBTL from moi :)


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    #46
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Getting personal? I'm sure that would include calling somebody a fool? Sorry I was just giving you the benefit of the doubt by assuming drink was responsible for your incoherence, obviously not the case then...
    sorry but i need snow lol


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    #47
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    :rolleyes:

    Any chance, we could get back on topic?

    The thread will be impossible for people to follow otherwise.

    Ah fuck it, it's Christmas lets just have a laugh for once, we never have a laugh anymore!:mad:


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    #48
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Su Campu wrote: »
    One user has already been banned and more will follow if things don't get back on topic here. FINAL WARNING.

    Why? Are mods given a finite amount of warnings at the start of each day? Borrow one from birdwatching or something like that.


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    #49
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Ah fuck it, it's Christmas lets just have a laugh for once, we never have a laugh anymore!:mad:

    It's because there hasn't been snow. :rolleyes:

    To clarify something. When I'm talking about 150 metres, I call that the snowline, i.e. where precipitation will be predominantly snow (no rain or even sleet). Lower down will be increasingly sleety and rainy, but in the heaviest showers there could be the odd wet flake thrown in at lowest levels, but as an exception rather than a rule.


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    #50
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Snow. Oh lashings of snow! :rolleyes:

    You are learning!


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    #51
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    Su Campu wrote: »
    It's because there hasn't been snow. :rolleyes:

    To clarify something. When I'm talking about 150 metres, I call that the snowline, i.e. where precipitation will be predominantly snow (no rain or even sleet). Lower down will be increasingly sleety and rainy, but in the heaviest showers there could be the odd wet flake thrown in at lowest levels, but as an exception rather than a rule.
    i agree with su campu i do not think it will snow on monday


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    #52
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Su Campu wrote: »
    OK, why I don't see a snowline down to sea level. Looking at Monday morning. Going on GFS factors, though the ECMWF roughly matches it on T850:

    Long Atlantic sea track from southern Greenland (up to +10 °C), leading to the following.
    1) 500-1000 thickness around a marginal 523 dam in the north to 528 in the south (need more like 521), but more importantly, 850-1000 thickness of around 1300-1305 dam (need sub 1285).





    Anything below 528 DAM is sufficient for snow to low levels however 522 is generally considered 50/50 between rain and snow. So it is very marginal, I agree. But still possible.

    Anything under 1310 carries a snow risk. Again marginal but still possible. The long sea track is irrelevant though. I am tired pointing that out. -5c 850hpa is -5c in the same way sub 528 DAM is sub 528 DAM.

    2) T850 around -5 °C at geopotential of 1250-1350 m. Not enough in a maritime airmass.

    Must be ground hog day. You made the same argument earlier this month. -5c is generally sufficient. Incidentally actual temperature is likely to be closer to -6c.
    3) 850 hPa theta e of around +14 °C. Need below +10 °C. 850 theta-w at best +2 to +3 °C. These two variables would suggest a snowline of a couple of hundred metres.


    +14c translates into around an 80% probability that snow may occur but at what level. You need to correct those figures though because Tuesday is likely to be wet and overcast and there are other variables like sunshine amounts etc to take into account in relation to Monday. So you need to do a bit of calculation maybe knocking a couple of degrees off. You need to take account of more variables IMO but you have a point none the less.


    GFS snowline
    186707.gif

    Those charts are useful as an experimental guide but they have rarely been completely accurate. They are quite good for less marginal conditions.

    Both days are marginal for snow. I am not disputing that. Your point would come across better IMO if you gave a percentage risk of snow at various levels.

    P.S we don't know the exact track of Tuesdays storm yet...so maybe best to keep that from separate just till tomorrow.


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    #53
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    I think I have just copped on to something sinister on this forum.

    'Sponge Bob' and 'Snow Bunny', have the same initials! Have you noticed that Sponge Bob, despite claiming an almost diabolical hatred of snow, is actually the one poster who has very likely used the word 'snow' most often this winter? I don't think there is one post on here where he hasn't snuck in the the word 'snow' in some form or other.

    Beware people, Sponge Bob is a through and through SNOW BUNNY in sheeps' clothing.


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    #54
    greysides
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,974 Mod ✭✭✭✭greysides


    Deep Easterly wrote: »

    Beware people, Sponge Bob is a through and through SNOW BUNNY in sheeps' clothing.

    That makes him a woolly jumper!

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert

    The ultimate purpose of debate is not to produce consensus. It's to promote critical thinking.

    Adam Grant



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    #55
    delw
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    I think I have just copped on to something sinister on this forum.

    'Sponge Bob' and 'Snow Bunny', have the same initials! Have you noticed that Sponge Bob, despite claiming an almost diabolical hatred of snow, is actually the one poster who has very likely used the word 'snow' most often this winter? I don't think there is one post on here where he hasn't snuck in the the word 'snow' in some form or other.

    Beware people, Sponge Bob is a through and through SNOW BUNNY in sheeps' clothing.
    :eek: you mean
    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR4EkjM7mScWAqpqC5i4NDdC860OMWNCOxMIL1yQAPM3BBVKHXf:eek::eek:


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    #56
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Beware people, Sponge Bob is a through and through SNOW BUNNY in sheeps' clothing.

    Now DE , I was accused of trolling for predicting what turned out (not fully confirmed yet) to be a 15c on Christmas Day. Bunnies went spasticated at me for that one...they would not hear anything but 'White' bless the little dears.

    Sadly I just couldn't predict a heatwave AND snow ....but I tried to intellectually reconcile them to keep the bunnies happy so I did.


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    #57
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    delw wrote: »
    :eek: you mean
    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR4EkjM7mScWAqpqC5i4NDdC860OMWNCOxMIL1yQAPM3BBVKHXf:eek::eek:

    Nah, more this:

    bunny0032.jpg

    :D


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    #58
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I cannot understand why you doubt my ability to forecast these things.

    SCROLL ALL THE WAY DOWN! ;)


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    #59
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Those charts are useful as an experimental guide but they have rarely been completely accurate. They are quite good for less marginal conditions.

    Both days are marginal for snow. I am not disputing that. Your point would come across better IMO if you gave a percentage risk of snow at various levels.

    P.S we don't know the exact track of Tuesdays storm yet...so maybe best to keep that from separate just till tomorrow.

    I know, I just posted it as a final illustration of what also happens to be the way I see it too, going on the other factors I mentioned.

    I say 100 % chance of snow above 150 metres in the northwest early on Monday, rising to around 200-250 metres later through the morning. These levels around 150 metres higher up in the south. At sea level, I would say 20% chance of seeing the odd flake thrown into otherwise rain or sleet showers.

    A narrow window on Monday, before milder air later on, then we'll see what Tuesday brings, but with the airmass already in place before the arrival of the storm, I don't see where the major cold will be to the north of the system (if the ECMF comes off).

    I wasn't being patronising. In my opinion the evidence you posted for your forecast was not enough to back up the claims you were making. -5 °C 850s is not enough evidence, without backing it up with more data, that's all. I'm sure you yourself will admit to being a ramper, so no point in lashing me for saying so! :D

    Let's just see how things go.


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    #60
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    And once again this thread is based on one variable being the key, i.e -5c @ 850hpa=snowfall without any consideration for any other factors.


    That's a rediculous thing to say. I intentionally keep things as simple as possible so it is accessible to everyone who reads the forum. I won't apologise for that. And I will mention many other variables if prompted to do so. There is no need at all, and I have seen it on other forums, to bombard people with numbers and charts some of them will find bewildering. That does annoy people. I recognise that. But if you want an in depth model discussion I am glad to facilitate it.


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    #61
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    SCROLL ALL THE WAY DOWN! ;)

    That's a great score. I only entered it one month since it started;) Thanks for highlighting that. Happy trolling.



    Is there any chance at all that this thread can be kept on topic? It is only suppose to be for Monday/Tuesday snow risk/potential.


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