New Years Day/Monday Snow Discussion

darkman2

Let's have a focused thread for two potential snow opportunities

During the day on Sunday much colder air will be coming down across us from the Northwest.





https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/58230/186700.png



...and it looks as though heavy showers, particularly in the west will turn wintry with some snow fall during Sunday night and Monday which could leave temporary accumulations particularly on higher ground.


Then on Tuesday it's not only the wind that may be disruptive - potentially something more significant depending on the track of a storm which will be accompanied by some very heavy rain for a time. (see storm thread 2nd/3rd January) http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056497602

Depending on the track one of two things is likely to happen.

If the track is across the Southern half of the country then sleet and snow is quite likely on it's Northern flank as on the ECM.

Northerly tracking charts

If the track is further to the North then snowfall could well occur on it's Western flank.







https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/58230/186701.gif



If snowfall does occur at any point during this storm no matter where then conditions in those areas affected could get quite nasty for a time. High ground would probably be best avoided on Tuesday.

I think the least benign option if disruption because of snow does occur would be Southerly track. On the Westerly flank it would be rain to snow but on a Southerly track it could be snow throughout particularly in the far North and that would cause problems.

It is impossible really to go into too much detail without the exact track of the storm. Hopefully in the morning there will be broader agreement across the models. It is not only the wind that is of interest with that system.


Southerly track charts

Su Campu

I have to hand it to you - you're persistent!

I certainly can't see any disruption from snow at any time in the near future, regardless of where the low tracks, so I'd love to know how you came to that conclusion. Brief snow on high ground, sleety mix at best at sea level. I think you're way too optimistic and ott, but that's just my opinion.

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

I have to hand it to you - you're persistent!

I certainly can't see any disruption from snow at any time in the near future, regardless of where the low tracks, so I'd love to know how you came to that conclusion. Brief snow on high ground, sleety mix at best at sea level. I think you're way too optimistic and ott, but that's just my opinion.

Keep on being patronising. Water off a ducks back. I cannot understand why you doubt my ability to forecast these things. I don't think I have anything to prove. I think I am well capable of forming my own judgement and generally being close enough with these things. Sometimes it goes wrong. Your same criticisms come up every year. Last year and the year before that. You told me on both occasions that I was wrong, that there was no problems with snow or ice on the horizon and that I was mad to be forecasting snow at sea evel (remember that?) and generally trying to make me look like an idiot. Invariably you seem to end up on the wrong side. That's not a criticism, just an observation. Earlier this month was the most recent incidentally.



I am not an optimist, just a realist. By all means stick to your forecast but please stop being patronising. Please look through all the parameters available for the time period and post your thoughts on why you think I am wrong (which I could be of course). Looks to me like the minimum requirements for snow at all levels away from West coasts is met on both Monday and Tuesday for a time on most models. You obviously disagree. Fine.

byhookorbycrook

Bugger, we have a funeral in Mayo on Mon,how likely to hit snow?

leinad

darkman2 wrote: »

Keep on being patronising. Water off a ducks back. I cannot understand why you doubt my ability to forecast these things. I don't think I have anything to prove. I think I am well capable of forming my own judgement and generally being close enough with these things. Sometimes it goes wrong. Your same criticisms come up every year. Last year and the year before that. You told me on both occasions that I was wrong, that there was no problems with snow or ice on the horizon and that I was mad to be forecasting snow at sea evel (remember that?) and generally trying to make me look like an idiot. Invariably you seem to end up on the wrong side. That's not a criticism, just an observation. Earlier this month was the most recent incidentally.



I am not an optimist, just a realist. By all means stick to your forecast but please stop being patronising. Please look through all the parameters available for the time period and post your thoughts on why you think I am wrong (which I could be of course). Looks to me like the minimum requirements for snow at all levels away from West coasts is met on both Monday and Tuesday for a time on most models. You obviously disagree. Fine.

No... I'm the best at predicting, No, I am!

darkman2

leinad wrote: »

No... I'm the best at predicting, No, I am!

hmmm don't think it is like that. It's not about being able to predict anything. It's only about being able to evaluate the charts properly. Nobody here predicts anything. The predictions are done on some of the most complex computer models in the world which supply the charts. It's just a question of interpreting them.

darkman2

byhookorbycrook wrote: »

Bugger, we have a funeral in Mayo on Mon,how likely to hit snow?

You will be alright on Monday. It's wintry showers so a mixture of everything. Even if you do get small accumulations they should not last long at all really. Definately no disruption. It will be grand.

Min

I saw weathercheck get a complaint about the storm thread, here I see darkman2 get a complaint over this thread.

What I see is two people putting their necks on the line and prepared to make a forecast, weather is not an exact science, the predictions could be spot on or wrong, but the fact is some people are willing to use their knowledge to do a thread on the possibilities, whether it is a storm or the risk of snow.

Personally I like these threads, when sponge bob did the heat wave for Christmas, it did turn out to be a very mild Christmas but he got criticism over it before being proven correct.

At the very least with these threads we get to discuss the weather.

John.Icy

I can see it Darkman. You were the only one or two the last time saying snow could fall to low level, and guess what?? Two mornings I had snow(60m asl), against what all the big boys were saying, so no shame in sticking your neck out again. Fair play.

Ahorseofaman

I'm starting to see a bit of a snide attitude creeping in and I don't like it much.
Well said Min.
ps thanks to dm2 wc su and "The Sponge" for the're recent contributions,always interesting and informative.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

Keep on being patronising. Water off a ducks back. I cannot understand why you doubt my ability to forecast these things. I don't think I have anything to prove. I think I am well capable of forming my own judgement and generally being close enough with these things. Sometimes it goes wrong. Your same criticisms come up every year. Last year and the year before that. You told me on both occasions that I was wrong, that there was no problems with snow or ice on the horizon and that I was mad to be forecasting snow at sea evel (remember that?) and generally trying to make me look like an idiot. Invariably you seem to end up on the wrong side. That's not a criticism, just an observation. Earlier this month was the most recent incidentally.

I am not an optimist, just a realist. By all means stick to your forecast but please stop being patronising. Please look through all the parameters available for the time period and post your thoughts on why you think I am wrong (which I could be of course). Looks to me like the minimum requirements for snow at all levels away from West coasts is met on both Monday and Tuesday for a time on most models. You obviously disagree. Fine.

OK, why I don't see a snowline down to sea level. Looking at Monday morning. Going on GFS factors, though the ECMWF roughly matches it on T850:

Long Atlantic sea track from southern Greenland (up to +10 °C), leading to the following.

1) 500-1000 thickness around a marginal 523 dam in the north to 528 in the south (need more like 521), but more importantly, 850-1000 thickness of around 1300-1305 dam (need sub 1285).

2) T850 around -5 °C at geopotential of 1250-1350 m. Not enough in a maritime airmass.

3) 850 hPa theta e of around +14 °C. Need below +10 °C. 850 theta-w at best +2 to +3 °C. These two variables would suggest a snowline of a couple of hundred metres.

4) Strong winds throughout, minimising the risk of frost and not allowing a cold layer to develop at the surface which would help in lowering the snowline.

Factors in favour of snow:

Coldest air at hours of darkness, so reduced melting from solar radiation.
Unsaturated boundary layer, so some evaporational cooling is possible, but strong winds will minimise it. These strong winds will kelp to cause some flurries to fall to lower levels than they would otherwise.

Taking all that I would stick with hail, rain and sleet showers for most, with the snowline briefly around 150 metres in the northern half of the country early Monday.

GFS forecast sounding for Ballybofey, Co Donegal - inland area in the coldest air. zero isotherm at around 910 hPa, wet bulb zero around 950 hPa.




GFS snowline

doccy

meh I lurk on this thread all the time. Certain people on here can come across as patronising in a scholarly kind of way, but said certain people tend to know what they're talking about. And they share this knowledge freely.

Darkman, I recognise your username and look out for your threads. Forecasting on this forum is what makes it informative and interesting for newbies like me, keep it up.

novarock

As a regular reader Su Campu's replies seems very harsh and almost bullying in their nature. This is a discussion forum on a subject that is far from exact.

Risk is not a 90% chance, it is a risk, a possible outcome, and darkmans post shows a possibility that most of the readers would like to see.

The atmosphere of the forum has gone downhill a bit lately, and unfortunately it is mostly due to some of the moderators, and from what can be loosely described as 'senior' posters.

Nobodies credentials are on display here, so my opinion of each person is the same. In fact the only poster whose background I am aware of is MT Craniums.

I think the mods need to go away and have a discussion about how this place is being guided, as for now most of the posts are complaining about other posters, and its getting tiresome to read.

Keep it up Darkman, posts like yours are interesting to read.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Just my 2 cents on this.

MT has said many times that he may pull back from daily forecasting and let others have a go.

How is that gonna happen if people get shot down for it. I see it again and again.

We really should be happy that there is a community willing to make the forecasts instead of shooting them down.

Again, just my 2 cents, not getting at anyone personally.

novarock

Su Campu wrote: »

OK, why I don't see a snowline down to sea level. Looking at Monday morning. Going on GFS factors, though the ECMWF roughly matches it on T850:

Long Atlantic sea track from southern Greenland (up to +10 °C), leading to the following.

1) 500-1000 thickness around a marginal 523 dam in the north to 528 in the south (need more like 521), but more importantly, 850-1000 thickness of around 1300-1305 dam (need sub 1285).

2) T850 around -5 °C at geopotential of 1250-1350 m. Not enough in a maritime airmass.

3) 850 hPa theta e of around +14 °C. Need below +10 °C. 850 theta-w at best +2 to +3 °C. These two variables would suggest a snowline of a couple of hundred metres.

4) Strong winds throughout, minimising the risk of frost and not allowing a cold layer to develop at the surface which would help in lowering the snowline.

Factors in favour of snow:

Coldest air at hours of darkness, so reduced melting from solar radiation.
Unsaturated boundary layer, so some evaporational cooling is possible, but strong winds will minimise it. These strong winds will kelp to cause some flurries to fall to lower levels than they would otherwise.

Taking all that I would stick with hail, rain and sleet showers for most, with the snowline briefly around 150 metres in the northern half of the country early Monday.

GFS forecast sounding for Ballybofey, Co Donegal - inland area in the coldest air. zero isotherm at around 910 hPa, wet bulb zero around 950 hPa.

I fail to see how your forecast does not suggest a snow risk for monday tuesday, even if it is above 150m, quite a significant portion of this country is above 150m. Is your high horse above 150m?

Deep Easterly

Oh here we go again... for fuck sake. :mad:

Su Campu

I think my replies may seem harsh as they don't usually conform to the majority of people's whims about cold weather. Posters will only be appreciated here if they can somehow promise people that there's snow at the end of the tunnel. But that's fine - I'm not going to change my application of the laws of physics just to get a few more thanks on my posts.

And if people want to make a complaint about moderators, they should follow the rules and pm them.

Sponge Bob

Su Campu wrote: »

I have to hand it to you - you're persistent!.

Yeah but unlike his last thread that was locked earlier he troubled us with charts and data from the off rather than make statements with perennial 'data coming later' and 'be right back' kinda updates.

I'd never try to predict a christmas day temperature record 13 days out without a couple of charts and suchlikes....even though I was correct and all as it happens....... because if you predict an upside around here you will get accused of trolling even AFTER you are proven correct.

But I have to admire him for not staying in that shiny new snow bunny cage that mods constructed only a few hours back. I really must find some supporting data for this new thread from my usually reliable Korean sources...be right back.

Su Campu

novarock wrote: »

I fail to see how your forecast does not suggest a snow risk for monday tuesday, even if it is above 150m, quite a significant portion of this country is above 150m. Is your high horse above 150m?

And 90% of people live below that. Take it easy eh.

tzfrantic

novarock wrote: »

As a regular reader Su Campu's replies seems very harsh and almost bullying in their nature. This is a discussion forum on a subject that is far from exact.

Risk is not a 90% chance, it is a risk, a possible outcome, and darkmans post shows a possibility that most of the readers would like to see.

The atmosphere of the forum has gone downhill a bit lately, and unfortunately it is mostly due to some of the moderators, and from what can be loosely described as 'senior' posters.

Nobodies credentials are on display here, so my opinion of each person is the same. In fact the only poster whose background I am aware of is MT Craniums.

I think the mods need to go away and have a discussion about how this place is being guided, as for now most of the posts are complaining about other posters, and its getting tiresome to read.

Keep it up Darkman, posts like yours are interesting to read.

i agree with you totally they also seem to write of january completely saying basically there is no chance of a cold snap when infact there is signs it might happen

novarock

Su Campu wrote: »

I think my replies may seem harsh as they don't usually conform to the majority of people's whims about cold weather. Posters will only be appreciated here if they can somehow promise people that there's snow at the end of the tunnel. But that's fine - I'm not going to change my application of the laws of physics just to get a few more thanks on my posts.

And if people want to make a complaint about moderators, they should follow the rules and pm them.

I just think your posts and some of your replies imply that you do not want to read any posts from amateur forecasters. Forgive me if im wrong but I thought that was the purpose of the forum?

novarock

Su Campu wrote: »

And 90% of people live below that. Take it easy eh.

Sure whats 380,000 people among friends..

Su Campu

novarock wrote: »

I just think your posts and some of your replies imply that you do not want to read any posts from amateur forecasters. Forgive me if im wrong but I thought that was the purpose of the forum?

I read every post.

People should cool it a bit and get back on topic.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

novarock wrote: »

I just think your posts and some of your replies imply that you do not want to read any posts from amateur forecasters. Forgive me if im wrong but I thought that was the purpose of the forum?

See new thread

Let us cater for all !

BEASTERLY

I agree Su, it's getting ridiculous at this stage. This will be an event where any lying snow will be above 400m. I'll stick my neck out and say that nobody in the country will see lying snow in their garden during Monday or Tuesday.

And once again this thread is based on one variable being the key, i.e -5c @ 850hpa=snowfall without any consideration for any other factors. This is just like the claims you were making yesterday that the stratospheric warming guaranteed severe cold!

pad199207

novarock wrote: »

Su Campu wrote: »

And 90% of people live below that. Take it easy eh.

Sure whats 380,000 people among friends..

Why do yee always row about snow and not wind or rain or watever. Yeah yee all love snow , but the lengths some of yee go to is just crazy ! It's either going to happen or not going to happen. Relax

tzfrantic

well Su Campu your the one writing off the january before it starts you seem to think that beyond 2 weeks a cold snap could not start how is that.Things can always change

Sponge Bob

Fear The Power Of Snow Bunny.

http://www.shamanicjourney.com/article/6005/rabbit-power-

Rabbit ability of being alert and aware of its surroundings ALL the time, can help us be aware that we ALL have the power to create with our thoughts and to be aware of them, to redirect them on a positive path and to be focused on our dreams, not allowing our focus to be distracted from our intentions with negative emotions, especially from actualising our wishes and dreams

Su Campu

tzfrantic wrote: »

well Su Campu your the one writing off the january before it starts you seem to think that beyond 2 weeks a cold snap could not start how is that.Things can always change

I never wrote off January, I said cold was unlikely in the next two weeks. Reference the post where I said all of January.

This is getting pathetic at this stage. :rolleyes:

Stick to the topic of the thread or bans will be issued. Third warning.

novarock

Im a snow lover, true, Im not pissed off because someone says its not going to snow, im pissed because somebody opened a thread they are entitled to that shows a snow risk, and a forum moderator is practically bullying him, and any other poster into not posting threads like this.

Its not as if the air traffic controllers and public transport people are watching the forum to determine the weather.

BEASTERLY

Su Campu wrote: »

I never wrote off January, I said cold was unlikely in the next two weeks. Reference the post where I said all of January.

This is getting pathetic at this stage. :rolleyes:

Stick to the topic of the thread or bans will be issued. Third warning.

You might get some snow up there on your 600m high horse Su!!!

/sarcasm

Please don't ban me! It was a joke!

Sponge Bob

600m + could be impacted graupel and I ain't going up to check

tzfrantic

now Su Campu but never say unlikely i need my cold and snow.
btw you thing off topic by slamming darkmans post not once but other times it is really patheic. forecast snow and i will love you lol.
anything can happen in weather i need snow.

Rebelbrowser

Can I just say I love DM's threads - puts his neck out and is right frequently. Equally however, the critical faculties of Su Campu are crucial to this site. He does a lot of posting, not just moderating, and contrary to what at least one contributor said he is very helpful to noobie posters. Keep up the good work both of you.

Actually, as an aside, does Su Campu have a view on how Jan and Feb are likely to pan out? Perhaps one for another thread..........

Deep Easterly

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Fear The Power Of Snow Bunny.

http://www.shamanicjourney.com/article/6005/rabbit-power-

Sweet dreams SB:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_KKo6ma1vQ

Su Campu

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Can I just say I love DM's threads - puts his neck out and is right frequently. Equally however, the critical faculties of Su Campu are crucial to this site. He does a lot of posting, not just moderating, and contrary to what at least one contributor said he is very helpful to noobie posters. Keep up the good work both of you.

Actually, as an aside, does Su Campu have a view on how Jan and Feb are likely to pan out? Perhaps one for another thread..........

Snow. Oh lashings of snow! :rolleyes:

BEASTERLY

tzfrantic wrote: »

now Su Campu but never say unlikely i need my cold and snow.
btw you thing off topic by slamming darkmans post not once but other times it is really patheic. forecast snow and i will love you lol.
anything can happen in weather i need snow.

Cmon man sober up, it's 20 past one you have to go home to to your parents soon, drink a pint of water or something.

BEASTERLY

Su Campu wrote: »

Snow. Oh lashings of snow! :rolleyes:

You're cert to get 'post of the day' now!

delw

Su Campu wrote: »

Snow. Oh lashings of snow! :rolleyes:

one of your best posts Su Campu :eek:
hope it's not a wishcast :D

tzfrantic

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Cmon man sober up, it's 20 past one you have to go home to to your parents soon, drink a pint of water or something.

I do not drink stop getting personal.

WolfeIRE

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Cmon man sober up, it's 20 past one you have to go home to to your parents soon, drink a pint of water or something.

tzfrantic wrote: »

I do not drink fool and stop getting personal.

:rolleyes:

Any chance, we could get back on topic?

The thread will be impossible for people to follow otherwise.

tzfrantic

i will let there be snow

BEASTERLY

tzfrantic wrote: »

I do not drink fool and stop getting personal.

Getting personal? I'm sure that would include calling somebody a fool? Sorry I was just giving you the benefit of the doubt by assuming drink was responsible for your incoherence, obviously not the case then...

Su Campu

One user has already been banned and more will follow if things don't get back on topic here. FINAL WARNING.

Sponge Bob

tzfrantic wrote: »

now Su Campu but never say unlikely i need my cold and snow.
btw you thing off topic by slamming darkmans post not once but other times it is really patheic. forecast snow and i will love you lol.
anything can happen in weather i need snow.

FEAR THE POWER OF THE SNOW BUNNY

and IBTL from moi

tzfrantic

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Getting personal? I'm sure that would include calling somebody a fool? Sorry I was just giving you the benefit of the doubt by assuming drink was responsible for your incoherence, obviously not the case then...

sorry but i need snow lol

BEASTERLY

WolfeIRE wrote: »

:rolleyes:

Any chance, we could get back on topic?

The thread will be impossible for people to follow otherwise.

Ah fuck it, it's Christmas lets just have a laugh for once, we never have a laugh anymore!:mad:

BEASTERLY

Su Campu wrote: »

One user has already been banned and more will follow if things don't get back on topic here. FINAL WARNING.

Why? Are mods given a finite amount of warnings at the start of each day? Borrow one from birdwatching or something like that.

Su Campu

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Ah fuck it, it's Christmas lets just have a laugh for once, we never have a laugh anymore!:mad:

It's because there hasn't been snow. :rolleyes:

To clarify something. When I'm talking about 150 metres, I call that the snowline, i.e. where precipitation will be predominantly snow (no rain or even sleet). Lower down will be increasingly sleety and rainy, but in the heaviest showers there could be the odd wet flake thrown in at lowest levels, but as an exception rather than a rule.

Rebelbrowser

Su Campu wrote: »

Snow. Oh lashings of snow! :rolleyes:

You are learning!

tzfrantic

Su Campu wrote: »

It's because there hasn't been snow. :rolleyes:

To clarify something. When I'm talking about 150 metres, I call that the snowline, i.e. where precipitation will be predominantly snow (no rain or even sleet). Lower down will be increasingly sleety and rainy, but in the heaviest showers there could be the odd wet flake thrown in at lowest levels, but as an exception rather than a rule.

i agree with su campu i do not think it will snow on monday