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Possibly turning much colder next week
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Farmers though are excited by weather that isn't too extreme.
I want my milk collected so I am not a fan of snow or ice as it could be costly, or floods or drought for field conditions in the spring/summer/autumn period.
I don't want storms to blow down the sheds either.
But I love the weather and we have to take what we get, as Joe Bastardi says, it is the only weather you got.
Hm, there's an amount of truth to what you say Min... But
As a sheep farmer myself I was talking to another and we both agreed the snow would be better than the god awful hail/sleet/non stop rain we're getting in this part of the country.0 -
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UKMO pretty good, not perfect but colder none the less with squally wintry showers
Slight interruption followed by more of the same
Watch for the pressure rise to the north. That will be very important beyond this forecast period.
In terms of the stratospheric warming we have a good idea of where it will propagate to the surface and that will split the polar vortex and force it south on several sides. Massive ejections of cold air from the poles should be expected. (we may not end up on the right side but we need this to happen for prolonged cold in any case)
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No offense but I get the impression you're just clutching at straws!UKMO pretty good, not perfect but colder none the less with squally wintry showers
Seriously, pretty good? Maybe my sarcasm detector is broken but low heights to our north, high to our south. Raging zonality, yes maybe the odd brief 36-hour 'cold' spells where only mountains in Donegal over 400m get a 2 or 3cm dusting. The same sh1te we've had since November. Yes that massive russian high is moving north but all that's doin is takin any cold air out of eastern europe and Russia by bringing in southerlies, disastrous for us if we want an Easterly later on.Watch for the pressure rise to the north. That will be very important beyond this forecast period.
In terms of the stratospheric warming we have a good idea of where it will propagate to the surface and that will split the polar vortex and force it south on several sides. Massive ejections of cold air from the poles should be expected. (we may not end up on the right side but we need this to happen for prolonged cold in any case)
Watch for pressure rises? Surely you mean, we would love to see pressure rises to the north! What reason do you have to believe they will coming soon?
And I have to stop you on the stratospheric warming. Where are getting the idea that the vortex will split and there will be ''Massive ejections of cold air from the poles''. Of course this could happen, but not this time im afraid, that vortex is far to strong and this warming is only going to serve to move the vortex a small bit. A slight weakening of the vortex will happen I'm sure, but nothing of any significance to us. Please if you're going to make a forecast based on stratospheric warming, at least research it a bit instead of assuming a wrong connection that strat warming=height rises at 60-70 degrees north. The connection between the two is very loose, and ultimately unproven as it is only a recent idea.
And what do you mean by ''we have a good idea of where it will propagate to the surface and that will split the polar vortex'', I'm sure by this you mean you saw an amateur on another forum who doesn't really know what he's on about says it will. And because it gives the likes of you and me hope you take it as gospel and absolute rock solid forecast. Trust me, been there done that, have the t-shirt(and a jar containing the shards of my shattered hopes!)0 -
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Fairly happy with the forecast for next week I have to say. And it is still evolving. The ECM is coming out so let's see what that shows.
Ah Darkman2, you are on the boards this evening!
I had asked you a question yesterday but did not get an answer so will ask again!
Given that most people know that you are a notorious cold ramper, are your forecasts based on good scientific evidence or are they Hopecasts? Discuss:D:D
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Weathercheck wrote: »stop digging!:D
There appears there will be 18 hours with 850hpa temps below -5c on a brisk westerly wind.
Is this the cold spell!?
Yes, prepare yourself, family and friends for this savage weather event. Can't believe it's not on the news! I would advise anybody to go and stock up ON supplies NOW!!!! It will be too late by tomorrow, I can just picture the mayhem now!!
Good call by DM2 to have a yellow triangle on this thread, they should be used abundantly now. Not doing so could, emphasising could(because at the end of the day nothings impossible), result in DEATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
EDIT: Just seen DM2 has removed the said triangle. Please, for the sake of the nation, put it back!!!!! 0 -
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Yes, prepare yourself, family and friends for this savage weather event. Can't believe it's not on the news! I would advise anybody to go and stock up ON supplies NOW!!!! It will be too late by tomorrow, I can just picture the mayhem now!!
Good call by DM2 to have a yellow triangle on this thread, they should be used abundantly now. Not doing so could, emphasising could(because at the end of the day nothings impossible), result in DEATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
EDIT: Just seen DM2 has removed the said triangle. Please, for the sake of the nation, put it back!!!!!
I think Beasterly is having snow withdrawal symptoms:D0 -
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Just because it has been mild up to now and looks like staying mild for another bit does not mean we should rule out the winter. Winter, like people, is very fickle, and can change within a few weeks. Look back to November 2009, which had a very similar setup to now. People should calm down a bit, it's a bit crazy the way people go on if there's no snow on the way for tomorrow. Remember, the chances are stacked AGAINST us when it comes to snow, we've just been spoilt the last two years.
"I WANT MY SNOW, AND I WANT IT NOW!!"
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Just because it has been mild up to now and looks like staying mild for another bit does not mean we should rule out the winter. Winter, like people, is very fickle, and can change within a few weeks. Look back to November 2009, which had a very similar setup to now. People should calm down a bit, it's a bit crazy the way people go on if there's no snow on the way for tomorrow. Remember, the chances are stacked AGAINST us when it comes to snow, we've just been spoilt the last two years.
"I WANT MY SNOW, AND I WANT IT NOW!!"
Fair enough - we have been spoilt the last two winters and this is part of the problem with expectations for this year. I suppose the concern is that on the FI charts out to Jan 11th 2012, there is no sign of any decent cold! This will take up right up to the middle of the meteorological winter, so time is running out. However, it is accepted that Jan 11th is FI so things could change
D
PS - love the above movie!0 -
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I have seen some people go off the rocker over being denied their fix of another type of snow but the tantrums on this forum are becoming somewhat ridicalous. Winter is not over until mid March or so in terms of the potential for severe and prolonged wintry weather.
Yes, we are stuck in a zonal setup for the next 2-3 weeks but that only brings us up to mid to the second half of January.
I could not recognise a split polar vortex if it hit me in the face so I would not dare speculate as to what may happen beyond mid January. However, I have a grasp of medium range models, and I can say with great certainty that the weather will not turn much colder next week nor will there be any prolonged cold during the following week.
There are select few on here who possess the ability to read charts beyond the 2-week timeframe and 'speculating' what may occur. Anyone saying winter is over and it will not snow before the winter is out is either well informed (preferably those with such claims should back up such claims) or is having a hissy fit that nobody here wants to read. Less of the latter and more of the former please.
For the sake of world peace, MT please do provide us with your thoughts on the coming month.
Here Here!! Could not have put it better myself
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Well , a temperature of -15.7oC is pretty low by any standards! I understand places in Mayo and Tyrone dipped to around -17.8oC so in fairness Dublin was not far behind and don't forget that Dublin received bucketloads more snow than Galway!!!:D:D:D:D
D
I don't think so man,I was in ballinasloe for the snow blast the start of December last year and was 8 inches high or more,I was working the same week in ballina and castlerea and it was even worse and iv got the photos, I think Dublin get it after that,anyway us in Galway get the most snow so watch this space for next month
Also we had -18 0 -
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I don't think so man,I was in ballinasloe for the snow blast the start of December last year and was 8 inches high or more,I was working the same week in ballina and castlerea and it was even worse and iv got the photos, I think Dublin get it after that,anyway us in Galway get the most snow so watch this space for next month
Also we had -18
Just to clarify:
1. Dublin and the East got more snow than Ballina etc during the late Nov/Early Dec 2010 and the late Dec 2010 episodes. Why? Simply due to the fact that the snow came in on Easterly winds. It therefore stands to reason that the East of Ireland got more snow, the showers just did not penetrate that far west. You got some left overs from Atlantic showers
2. Your temp dropped to -18oC? You better get onto Met Eireann so! They recorded the lowest temp last year in the ROI at Straide, Co Mayo at -17.5oC !!
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0104/breaking52.html
3. Galway does not get the most snow. It gets the most wet snow!! Dublin gets the powdery stuff due to its privileged position on the East coast! Next time it snows up here from an Easterly, come up and check it out!!
Anyway, have a look at the snow from last year falling on beautiful Dublin!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zcwac-tRHlE
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they must be kicking the duvets off as we speakElmer Blooker wrote: »Omsk in Siberia, which is so far east we are probably nearer to Moscow than this place, is currently at -4c at 4am which I have discovered by doing a google is 14c ABOVE average. http://abonent.omsk.skylink.ru/webcam.php
but in all seriousness EB it goes too show how mild it is(im sure -4 is mild to them) 0 -
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Since you are going on about it I might aswell post a few things.Just to clarify:
1. Dublin and the East got more snow than Ballina etc during the late Nov/Early Dec 2010 and the late Dec 2010 episodes. Why? Simply due to the fact that the snow came in on Easterly winds. It therefore stands to reason that the East of Ireland got more snow, the showers just did not penetrate that far west. You got some left overs from Atlantic showers
2. Your temp dropped to -18oC? You better get onto Met Eireann so! They recorded the lowest temp last year in the ROI at Straide, Co Mayo at -17.5oC !!
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0104/breaking52.html
3. Galway does not get the most snow. It gets the most wet snow!! Dublin gets the powdery stuff due to its privileged position on the East coast! Next time it snows up here from an Easterly, come up and check it out!!
Anyway, have a look at the snow from last year falling on beautiful Dublin!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zcwac-tRHlE
D
Yes the East did get the heaviest depths recorded as far as I know last winter, especially in the November feature but there was over a foot in places around Donegal aswell and in Mayo in the Decemeber snowfall and we did get plenty of showers coming from the northerly direction, the snow showers didn't just come from the east, the Greenland express is proof of that and the snow was the 'powdery stuff'. As Deep Easterly mentioned before the winds were mostly from the North and North East last year.
Anyway Its not like anyone missed out on anything we were all covered in snow up to our eyeballs! Well most of us (Sorry WolfIre)
As for the -18, that was in Castlederg right on the Tyrone/Donegal border with -17 recorded in Killygordan in Donegal.
It actually dropped to -18.7C in Castlederg on the 24th of that month, it shows -18.0 on this map for the 20th.
Also I would like to introduce you to the elephant in the room.
You can keep your privileged position on the East coastDeep Easterly wrote:
Map showing average No. of days with snow over Ireland in an average year: (based on 61-90 average)
Map taken from:
"Climates of the British Isles: present, past and future" ( Elaine Barrow, Michael Hulme: 1997)
We must bow our heads in shame!0 -
ahh sure the north and the midlands might have a bit on new years day above 300 mtrI have seen some people go off the rocker over being denied their fix of another type of snow but the tantrums on this forum are becoming somewhat ridicalous. Winter is not over until mid March or so in terms of the potential for severe and prolonged wintry weather.
Yes, we are stuck in a zonal setup for the next 2-3 weeks but that only brings us up to mid to the second half of January.
I could not recognise a split polar vortex if it hit me in the face so I would not dare speculate as to what may happen beyond mid January. However, I have a grasp of medium range models, and I can say with great certainty that the weather will not turn much colder next week nor will there be any prolonged cold during the following week.
There are select few on here who possess the ability to read charts beyond the 2-week timeframe and 'speculating' what may occur. Anyone saying winter is over and it will not snow before the winter is out is either well informed (preferably those with such claims should back up such claims) or is having a hissy fit that nobody here wants to read. Less of the latter and more of the former please.
For the sake of world peace, MT please do provide us with your thoughts on the coming month. 0 -
I too apologize for going OT, but I wish to respond to Dekeron also. (Not like the thread is of much value)
Dekeron, you need to step outside your little 'snow bubble' in Dublin. Granted the first bout of snow in late Nov/Early Dec, the East got most, but in the second bout, the North faired extremely well. I saw a picture of a women in a drift nearly at her waist in Donegal! And by reports, it was definately fine powdery snow that fell.
And Easterly wind? Don't think so. NE winds my friend, IOM shadow doesn't really excist otherwise. With straight east winds, Dublin actually can end up in the Anglessy shadow, and get NOTHING! 0 -
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Since you are going on about it I might aswell post a few things.
Yes the East did get the heaviest depths recorded as far as I know last winter, especially in the November feature but there was over a foot in places around Donegal aswell and in Mayo in the Decemeber snowfall and we did get plenty of showers coming from the northerly direction, the snow showers didn't just come from the east, the Greenland express is proof of that and the snow was the 'powdery stuff'. As Deep Easterly mentioned before the winds were mostly from the North and North East last year.
Anyway Its not like anyone missed out on anything we were all covered in snow up to our eyeballs! Well most of us (Sorry WolfIre)
As for the -18, that was in Castlederg right on the Tyrone/Donegal border with -17 recorded in Killygordan in Donegal.
It actually dropped to -18.7C in Castlederg on the 24th of that month, it shows -18.0 on this map for the 20th.
Also I would like to introduce you to the elephant in the room.
You can keep your privileged position on the East coast
Thanks Pangea - some very interesting facts there. And you are right, most of us on the island of Ireland were up to our knees in the snow last year so no need to fight over a couple of inches here and there !
Also, that map of Ireland indicating average yearly snowfall is interesting and I would not have doubted that Donegal was the county that recorded the most snowfall each year. Which indeed it is!
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I too apologize for going OT, but I wish to respond to Dekeron also. (Not like the thread is of much value)
Dekeron, you need to step outside your little 'snow bubble' in Dublin. Granted the first bout of snow in late Nov/Early Dec, the East got most, but in the second bout, the North faired extremely well. I saw a picture of a women in a drift nearly at her waist in Donegal! And by reports, it was definately fine powdery snow that fell.
And Easterly wind? Don't think so. NE winds my friend, IOM shadow doesn't really excist otherwise. With straight east winds, Dublin actually can end up in the Anglessy shadow, and get NOTHING!
Fair point Johh.Icy - North Easterly winds so. Either way it delivered big time!!:D
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Just to clarify:
1. Dublin and the East got more snow than Ballina etc during the late Nov/Early Dec 2010 and the late Dec 2010 episodes. Why? Simply due to the fact that the snow came in on Easterly winds. It therefore stands to reason that the East of Ireland got more snow, the showers just did not penetrate that far west. You got some left overs from Atlantic showers
2. Your temp dropped to -18oC? You better get onto Met Eireann so! They recorded the lowest temp last year in the ROI at Straide, Co Mayo at -17.5oC !!
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0104/breaking52.html
3. Galway does not get the most snow. It gets the most wet snow!! Dublin gets the powdery stuff due to its privileged position on the East coast! Next time it snows up here from an Easterly, come up and check it out!!
Anyway, have a look at the snow from last year falling on beautiful Dublin!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zcwac-tRHlE
D
Blaaaa :rolleyes:0 -
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