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24-09-2010, 06:34   #1531
M.T. Cranium
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Friday, 24 September, 2010
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TODAY ... cool but mostly dry with a mixture of cloud and sunshine ... a few of the clouds may produce local drizzle or light showers but amounts will generally be trace to 2 mms. Many places will remain dry. Winds northerly at about 15-25 mph. Highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy with longer clear intervals towards morning, fog developing near lakes and streams inland, as temperatures drop to near freezing (the range will be about -1 to +4 but higher in some urban and coastal locales). Since water temperatures are about 12-15 C in most cases, this cold air easily saturates and so you get dense fog near bodies of water, also in the lowest lying valleys where the coldest air drains.

SATURDAY ... widespread sunshine once the morning fog and low cloud disperse, light winds, highs 13-15 C.

SUNDAY ... after another very chilly start with fog patches and frost, lows near -2 C in some places, the day will turn sunny at least for a while, before some cloudy intervals develop. Highs 13-15 C again.

MONDAY ... cloud in the southwest may bring a bit of drizzle or light rain there, but otherwise, variable cloud, some sunshine Ulster and Leinster, after a cold start there, so expect temperatures to recover to about 17 C from near 2 C in the east, but only from about 10 C to 16 C in the west.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... cloudy with increasing chances for showery rainfall that may become rather heavy in places, in a mild southerly flow, highs reaching about 18 C.

Anyone heading to the London area might note that the weekend will likely be cloudier there and it could rain at times even on Sunday as low pressure will be trying to back up to the west after clearing away on Saturday.

The day here on Thursday 23rd was gloomy (I really noticed the lack of ambient light for the first time this autumn) with occasional rain that has turned rather heavy this evening, and it has been quite chilly despite a south to southwest wind, at about 15 C. Meanwhile the east coast had a second hot day on Thursday, with 34 C at Washington DC and even hotter in southern Virginia. This hot spell may modify slightly by the weekend when heavy rain develops there. Further south, Tropical Storm Matthew has formed east of Nicaragua and is expected to brush the north coast of Honduras before heading into the Yucatan. Meanwhile, Lisa remains weak but holds on to low-end tropical storm status. Model forecasts are showing a possible Nicole by the weekend near Cuba. The season is almost hyper-active now, although still not quite up to the 2005 pace when we ran out of regular names and had to use Greek letters by December.
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24-09-2010, 12:22   #1532
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The frost for tonight and Sat night, is it going to be widespread MT?
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24-09-2010, 20:12   #1533
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UPDATE _ Friday 8:10 p.m.
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Frost potential looks patchy at worst tonight as there is fairly extensive cloud at present, a few spots probably around Tipps, Laois and Offaly may clear enough to bring a patchy ground frost. Saturday night looks like bringing a more widespread frost, will of course update that around 0600, but if you're wondering about a "killing frost" Sunday morning, I would say possibly yes except in larger towns which should stay 2-4 C warmer.
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25-09-2010, 06:59   #1534
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TODAY ... sunny with a few cloudy intervals (once any rural fog dissipates) and rather cool, but with the light winds, it should feel pleasant enough at mid-day (on the sunny side at least) ... highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... frost more widespread than last night, with some readings as low as -2 C possible, 0-3 C in general, 5 C in more sheltered urban and coastal locations. Some dense fog patches likely by midnight to well after sunrise.

SUNDAY ... morning fog or low cloud, sun breaking through then a gradual increase in high cloud from southwest, remaining sunny in the east. Highs about 14 C. The following night may bring another light frost in counties north of Dublin and generally eastern half of Ireland, but overnight lows will stay up around 5-8 C further west.

MONDAY ... cloudy except for parts of Ulster, but dry in east generally, rain moving into southwest around mid-day, milder with southeast winds 10-20 mph, highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY ... cloudy with showers, heavy at times, winds SSE 15-25 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C. Rainfalls in total may approach 25 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... cloudy with periods of rain, a further 15-25 mms of rain, mild, foggy at times, lows near 13 C and highs near 16 C.

The weather may brighten somewhat later in the week but may remain rather showery, then could become windy by the weekend with gales possible from a generally westerly direction.

Meanwhile, Friday (24th) here was cloudy without much rain but damp, and about 16 C. On the east coast, Washington (DCA) had an astonishing high of 99 F or 37 C which was the latest in the year for such a high reading (although Thursday's record of 98 F was set back in 1895). The heat was widespread although sea breezes kept both NYC and BOS a little cooler near 29 C, but it reached 32 C as far north as Lake Ontario. This heat is now slowly modifying and will be followed by heavy rain by Monday. T.S. Matthew moved inland before it could become a hurricane but is bringing heavy rains to Honduras now, and Lisa continues to drift towards the Azores although it will probably die before getting close enough to give them much weather.
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26-09-2010, 06:49   #1535
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It seems that frost avoided Ireland (or vice versa) and that's a good thing except for forecast verification purposes. Cloud kept the overnight lows around 6-7 C in most places. Over in the western part of the U.K., there have been a few substantial breaks and lows have in fact fallen to -1 C at a few spots (-3 C at Tulloch Bridge in Scotland). So consider your gardens the lucky ones this morning.

Going with the same general forecast beyond an increase in today's cloud cover ...

TODAY ... morning fog or low cloud, sun breaking through in a few places by late morning, then a gradual increase in high cloud from southwest (where visible through remnant low cloud), somewhat brighter in the east. Highs about 13-14 C and feeling quite chilly unless the sun breaks through the overcast.

TONIGHT may bring a scattered light frost in counties north of Dublin and generally eastern half of Ireland, although probably only in one or two spots, and overnight lows will stay up around 5-8 C further west, in fact temperatures may rise to 10 C later in the night there.

MONDAY ... cloudy except for parts of Ulster, but dry in east generally, rain moving into southwest around mid-day, milder with southeast winds 10-20 mph, highs 15-17 C. It could start off feeling quite raw Monday morning as milder air will be slow to mix down to the surface.

TUESDAY ... cloudy with showers, heavy at times, winds SSE 15-25 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C. Rainfalls in total may approach 25 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... cloudy with periods of rain, a further 15-25 mms of rain, mild, foggy at times, lows near 13 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY ... partly cloudy, a few longer sunny intervals, then more rain moving in from the west, highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... periods of rain may become heavy at times, windy, highs near 15 C.

Next weekend is still looking very unsettled and breezy to windy at times, and the models are starting to deal with a possible intense frontal system for early in the week (around Monday 4th-Tuesday 5th October). That will become a hot topic if it stays on the model charts into "reliable time frames" as we like to call days 1-5 (usually) ...

Meanwhile, Saturday 25th was a sunny and pleasant day here with a high near 20 C, but only a brief respits from rain as that has already moved back in this evening. The east coast heat wave continued in somewhat reduced form with DCA hitting 34 C and NYC 31 C. This will now morph into more of a warmish period with rain moving in from the southwest. Matthew has dumped copious rains on central America, and Lisa continues a slow northward drift into obscurity southwest of Madeira.
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26-09-2010, 11:52   #1536
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Next weekend could spell a testing Ryder Cup, you reckon?
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27-09-2010, 06:39   #1537
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The Ryder Cup and a lot of other events are going to have to cope with some wind and rain apparently, if the models are right.

While much of this week will be cloudy and unsettled with frequent rain, stronger disturbances are being advertised for Sunday and Monday.

TODAY ... mostly cloudy with rain slowly edging east but probably remaining confined to Munster and nearby parts of Connacht, at least in terms of measurable rainfall which may reach 4-8 mms in the southwest. Winds will be picking up from the E to SE and giving a rather raw feel to the day especially before mid-afternoon, and highs will struggle to reach 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... rain continuing to edge further east, foggy at times, chilly SE winds and lows 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... variable cloud as one area of rain dies out near the east coast to be followed by a stronger impulse with heavier rain by late in the day, as winds become more southerly, highs reaching 17 C, winds SSE 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... cloudy with periods of rain, heavy at times in eastern counties, some clearing late in the day west, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C, 15-30 mms of rain possible, winds S-SW 20-30 mph.

THURSDAY ... variable cloud with more heavy showers developing in southwest winds, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... continuing unsettled with frequent showers and blustery SW winds, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

The models are then showing a stormy period on Sunday into Monday ... details are yet to converge but probably an interval of strong S to SW winds as deep low pressure moves through the northern half of Ireland around Sunday night.

The weather here today (Sunday 26th) was cloudy and mild with highs around 17 C. Heavy rain has hit just north of here and caused some severe flood damage up the coast around Port Hardy and Bella Coola, but we have not seen much rain here this weekend. It is also raining heavily (as golf fans may have noticed earlier) in the eastern U.S. where the heat wave is over, but temperatures remain near 20 C.

While Matthew and Lisa have dissipated, the watch is on for a new tropical system south of Jamaica -- it would probably become Nicole although the relation to Matthew's moisture may be taken into consideration for this to be Matthew part two. Whatever the name, it seems likely to move across Cuba and threaten southern Florida and then the southeast U.S. with heavy rains from a tropical storm.
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27-09-2010, 17:57   #1538
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Various trough and frontal systems on their way in from the Atlantic appear to be weakening as they hit Ireland, probably because of the influence of the stationary low pressure over the North Sea. This trend should disappear gradually overnight and on Tuesday, but in the short term, what it means for the forecast is that this evening and first part of the overnight period may remain clear over parts of east Leinster and Ulster, with temperatures likely to fall to about 7-8 C folllowed by dense fog formation, as higher cloud moves in from the west. There is not much left of the first wave of moisture but it could re-develop overnight to some extent and give trace to 2 mm rain across central counties, later reaching the east coast by morning.

From that point on the original forecast sequence should continue valid with ever-strengthening waves of moisture moving in from the southwest.

The 12z model run seems to have started a slight downgrade in the intensity of storm systems timed for Sunday-Monday so we'll have to assess that trend later and for the morning forecast (sometimes you get a model tug of war at this stage).

If you do have clear skies this evening around 10-11 p.m., have a look for Jupiter in the southeast, now that the Moon is not in the sky at that time, it will be about as bright as you'll ever see it.
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27-09-2010, 22:39   #1539
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
UPDATE _ Monday, 6 p.m.
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If you do have clear skies this evening around 10-11 p.m., have a look for Jupiter in the southeast, now that the Moon is not in the sky at that time, it will be about as bright as you'll ever see it.
Jupiter is indeed looking very bright in our clear sky but i must be imagining the very bright moon (about 2/3 full) to the east of it

P.S Weather for Ryder cup looking very wet and windy. Much more Harrington weather than team Casey Good shout Monty
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28-09-2010, 00:28   #1540
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It's a ringer for the moon ok or maybe a Chinese lantern stuck in space.
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28-09-2010, 06:39   #1541
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Whoops, that's what I get for doing astronomy in my head, forgot that the Moon is both relatively slow and northing so it pops up a bit before my mental estimate for full moon plus four days. Still, it wasn't glaring right beside Jupiter, I presume (have not seen any night skies here for days now, hoping for a break because I want to have a look in my binocs for Uranus near Jupiter -- would recommend anyone consult a star chart if they want to find it, should be about as bright as some of the background stars in the area). On to the forecast then ... I did that in my head too (uh-oh).
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28-09-2010, 06:52   #1542
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Models continue to offer somewhat different solutions towards the weekend and early next week -- all have an unsettled theme, some show stronger winds than others. I have blended the range into one forecast here today, but this could begin to diverge either way.

TODAY ... dry at first in eastern counties, especially Ulster which could remain dry until early afternoon ... some sunshine could break through the overcast there, but the west will definitely start out with rain, heavy at times, and could see a brief thundershower embedded, with 10-20 mms of rain possible ... that rain will tend to break to showers by afternoon, as the line moves further east, through central Ireland by afternoon and giving the east some rain eventually (3-5 mms). Warmer and more humid in general with highs 17-18 C, hill fog developing, winds increasing to S 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT ... occasional light rain, mist or fog becoming widespread, just a gentle SW breeze, and very mild, lows 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... a rather variable day, some breaks in the overcast giving a few places a couple of hours of warm sunshine, but also some scattered and eventually widespread heavy showers, possibly thundery with hail. Winds from the SW at 10-20 mph, and rainfalls generally 5-10 mms but some places well above that range (most likely west central counties). Highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... windy with periods of rain developing, heavy at times, wind increasing to SSW 20-40 (exposed west coast areas 30-50) mph, and potential for 20-30 mms of rain. Lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY ... continued windy (SW 20-40 mph), showers, lows near 11 C and highs near 15 C.

WEEKEND ... both days likely to be unsettled and windy with frequent showers. Winds becoming near gale force late Friday and early Saturday, possibly less blustery for a while, then another stormy period possible later in the weekend into early Monday. The prevailing wind will be SW in the range of 25-45 mph with higher gusts.



We are faring no better here, today has been clammy and showery near 20 C with the air coming up from around Hawaii. Heavier rain has fallen further north and created further flood and mudslide problems "up the coast." Down around L.A. in southern California, they have been baking in a hot east wind (if that gets stronger, it's a Santa Ana wind, but so far it's just a slight breeze) giving all-time record highs that reached 45 C (113 F) at the downtown Los Angeles weather station. Oddly, the summer was considered unusually cool down that way and frequently five degrees below average for them (ths city of Los Angeles is usually a lot cooler than inland anyway, but they were recording highs of 18-22 C day after day in July rather than the normal mid to high 20s). Meanwhile, on the east coast, it remains rather warm and humid with some heavy rain at times, and a tropical storm seems to be forming near Cuba today that could become Nicole and should in any case (name or not) move north through Florida and up the east coast. This is where your forecast uncertainty is based, actually, because some models want to develop this rapidly and bring it screaming across the Atlantic on the weekend; others lose it in the general clutter of moving pieces around Newfoundland but still get something fairly energetic together for Ireland by about Monday-Tuesday. Hope you're not late for work now.
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28-09-2010, 13:56   #1543
 
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TODAY ... dry at first in eastern counties, especially Ulster which could remain dry until early afternoon ... some sunshine could break through the overcast there, but the west will definitely start out with rain, heavy at times, and could see a brief thundershower embedded, with 10-20 mms of rain possible ... that rain will tend to break to showers by afternoon, as the line moves further east, through central Ireland by afternoon and giving the east some rain eventually (3-5 mms). Warmer and more humid in general with highs 17-18 C, hill fog developing, winds increasing to S 15-25 mph.
You might be interested to know that we had a few very heavy showers in south wicklow [the East!] this morning between 930 and 1030 am followed by sunshine and they were breaking out ahead of the main front which only arrived here in the last hour.The rain in one of them was almost monsoonal with the sky very dark.
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28-09-2010, 20:17   #1544
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A few miles south of Black Briar, in North Wexford, we had heavy showers in the early morning followed by light showers during the rest of the morning and early afternoon, the mid and late afternoon was dry but cloudy and the rain has only started recently.
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29-09-2010, 06:46   #1545
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The models have downgraded any storm potential for the Sunday-Monday time period, mainly because of uncertainty about how Tropical Depression 16 near Cuba this morning will evolve into a tropical storm and enter the jet stream this weekend ... so this could change back but for the time being, the forecast will reflect a somewhat more placid pattern by the end of the weekend. Friday still looks very blustery and wet.

TODAY ... morning fog or mist will lift in most counties to allow for some brief warm sunshine, but western counties will have a scattering of thundery showers, some of them rather heavy ... this activity will tend to drift east to cover more of central and then eastern Ireland but a few places may remain dry all day ... where it does rain, expect 10-15 mms locally ... highs will be around 17 or 18 C. Winds will be moderate southwesterly.

TONIGHT ... foggy with a few more showers but these becoming more isolated, some dense fog developing with lows 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... clouding over probably before the fog lifts in some areas, but the sun may be out briefly before another wave of moisture hits from the Atlantic, this one rather sporadic and becoming heavier by late in the day, with about 10-20 mms eventually ... winds increasing to SSW 20-35 mph ... highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY ... blustery with periods of rain evolving into heavy showers with some thunder and hail, winds SW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... partly cloudy, breezy, some further showers, winds SW 20-35 mph, lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... with some uncertainty attached, Sunday is looking a bit improved now with some sunny intervals, isolated showers and only moderate breezes from a westerly direction, highs near 16 C.

NEXT WEEK is still somewhat unsettled on the current charts and confidence in those is only moderate, as it could be more unsettled at times. Temperatures will probably average 1-2 degrees above normal throughout.

As mentioned above, Tropical Depression 16 is having a difficult time consolidating into a tropical storm but should get that designation some time later today east of Miami on its way north. There it will run into a frontal system that is managing to drop heavy rain without help from a tropical storm, so this could turn very heavy in parts of the southeast U.S. in the next two days. Where I live, the weather was much improved on Tuesday with sunny skies, some fair weather cumulus and a high of 20 C.
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