Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

LuckyLloyd · 04-12-2018 12:33pm

Certainly worth considering the strategic outlook for the European project. The EU has things to deal with in the Eurozone; Italy / Poland / Hungary need to be handled to various extents. The purpose of the WA is to give clarity to the British situation so they can move forward during trade negotiations on a solid footing. A half in / half out Britain still riven by political division might be a complication worse in the medium long term than the chaos of a disorderly No Deal exit on March 29th.

Then from the UK perspective, politicians with careers ahead of them might see the value in neutering the Brexit faction and cleaning the decks politically. I certainly believe Corbyn sees the value in that, for you can genuinely move the societal conversation forward with Brexit clarified one way or another - even if it's the economically negative way.

Ultimately, from the EU perspective I think the preferred option may be the WA rather than a last minute remain at this stage. So long as the UK cannot reach a competent and realistic consensus political position that is.

CelticRambler · 04-12-2018 12:49pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't see how. These people are committed to Brexit regardless of the havoc it wreaks on the country they purport to love.

It won't change anything on the Brexiteer side, but all those Remainer MPs being faced with a choice of May's deal rock or a chaotic-Brexit hard place suddenly have a third way forward. With a unilateral revocation of A50 on the table, there's absolutely no reason for May's deal to be passed by either side, neither on a first vote nor a second.

Tell me how · 04-12-2018 12:52pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Ultimately, from the EU perspective I think the preferred option may be the WA rather than a last minute remain at this stage. So long as the UK cannot reach a competent and realistic consensus political position that is.

I disagree with this point. I think a remain at this stage would really help the EU to be steadfast in the strength of the union as it looks to tackle other issues.

Yes, the UK would continue to bicker nationally and some of their EU ministers would continue to complain but at that point, the EU would simply ignore the UK for at least 12 months.

Professor Moriarty · 04-12-2018 1:00pm

Tell me how wrote: »

I disagree with this point. I think a remain at this stage would really help the EU to be steadfast in the strength of the union as it looks to tackle other issues.

Yes, the UK would continue to bicker nationally and some of their EU ministers would continue to complain but at that point, the EU would simply ignore the UK for at least 12 months.

I dunno. A Remain by default or referendum win by a small margin will only kick the can down the road. The Eurosceptic genie is out of the lamp and he won't be going back in. When they were just a rump in the Tory party, a la Major's "bastards", they still caused a lot of trouble. Now that they have a mandate, built on lies but a mandate nonetheless, they will continue to paralyse Britain and by default hamper any progress in the EU. The whole farce is a boil that needs to be lanced but that won't be happening anytime soon.

briany · 04-12-2018 1:00pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't see how. These people are committed to Brexit regardless of the havoc it wreaks on the country they purport to love.

Hardcore Brexiteers will have to think about their strategy a little more carefully if the ECJ decides in favour of unilateral revocation. If voting down May's deal leads to a No Deal / No Brexit referendum, where the latter choice now has a tangible mechanism in place, then Brexiteers have potentially shot themselves in the foot.

ancapailldorcha · 04-12-2018 1:24pm

briany wrote: »

Hardcore Brexiteers will have to think about their strategy a little more carefully if the ECJ decides in favour of unilateral revocation. If voting down May's deal leads to a No Deal / No Brexit referendum, where the latter choice now has a tangible mechanism in place, then Brexiteers have potentially shot themselves in the foot.

The EU has said multiple times that the UK is welcome to cancel Brexit. Granted, that's a much less tangible mechanism but it is a mechanism nonetheless.

For the Brexiteers, they got the thing through a plebiscite using nefarious tactics and they know it. The problem they have is trying to secure no deal given that the unicorns they promised will never exist.

VinLieger · 04-12-2018 1:34pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I dunno. A Remain by default or referendum win by a small margin will only kick the can down the road. The Eurosceptic genie is out of the lamp and he won't be going back in.

I dunno when you look at the breakdown of the voting age groups i think it just requires 10+ years and there will be no chance of such a vote passing again. Sure there's even some speculation that a 2nd referendum would pass now by a small margin simply due to the number of pensioners that have already died off since the first vote and the amount of people who have similarly turned 18.

Professor Moriarty · 04-12-2018 1:38pm

VinLieger wrote: »

I dunno when you look at the breakdown of the voting age groups i think it just requires 10+ years and there will be no chance of such a vote passing again. Sure there's even some speculation that a 2nd referendum would pass now by a small margin simply due to the number of pensioners that have already died off since the first vote and the amount of people who have similarly turned 18.

10 years is an awful long time in the context of Brexit. For instance, a problem for Britain, and the EU by extension, is that there are EU elections coming up next May. This Brexit farce must be sorted to a large extent before then. Certainty is needed. The EU won't want Brexiteers/Britain/Tory dividions muddying the waters during the elections.

EdgeCase · 04-12-2018 1:50pm

The amazing bit is the considerable lengths the UK government went to to argue that revoking the article 50 letter is impossible and even spending substantial resources on legal representation to try and stop the case from ever being heard.

That’s not something you do if you know you’ve a strong argument and a sturdy mandate.

They’re obviously trying to make this irrevocable.

MrMusician18 · 04-12-2018 1:50pm

Is the legal discussion not largely academic anyway? The EU have always stated that they would facilitate the UK should they change their mind so withdrawal of Art. 50 was always a technical option open to the UK Government.

However, politically it isn't possible. Reversing the referendum result in parliament only would not go down well at all so the result has to be acted on. The only way Brexit could be stopped at this stage is a second referendum.

MrMusician18 · 04-12-2018 1:55pm

EdgeCase wrote: »

The amazing bit is the considerable lengths the UK government went to to argue that revoking the article 50 letter is impossible and even spending substantial resources on legal representation to try and stop the case from ever being heard.

That’s not something you do if you know you’ve a strong argument and a sturdy mandate.

They’re obviously trying to make this irrevocable.

It was in the UKs interest to not have this question answered as it would then have left all options available to them.

It is best to challenge a law in the context of a real decision rather than a hypothetical

josip · 04-12-2018 1:59pm

I think this increases the likelihood of a hard Brexit.
Remainers will vote down the deal in the hope of getting a revocation before March 29th.
Brexiteers will vote down the deal in the hope of getting a hard Brexit.
Neither the Tories, not Corbyn want to cancel Brexit.

ambro25 · 04-12-2018 2:23pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Is the legal discussion not largely academic anyway? The EU have always stated that they would facilitate the UK should they change their mind so withdrawal of Art. 50 was always a technical option open to the UK Government.

No, absolutely not.

It’s one thing for EU heads to proclaim that the U.K. is welcome to stay, for political play/pressure.

But it’s quite another, to validate and legitimise that assertion under the rule of EU and international law, so that the U.K. staying in the EU notwithstanding its Art.50 notice, is demonstrably not the very sort of autocratic fudge, that anti-EU parties accuse the EU of.

The EU is a rules-based entity, always has been. It cannot afford to start looking like it runs a “one law for some” shop. Especially in these populist times.

I have been surprised by the AG’s opinion. There’s some holes in it IMHO, particularly towards end (paragraphs 151-160 and end section about ‘agreed revocation’). I could see the CJEU following it partially (notice is revocable OK, but stronger strings attached than as suggested by AG; I accept the morality of the AG’s take on EUCO unanimity requirement, but I don’t buy his legal reasoning).

There is a rising number of opinions that the AG let the political dimension cloud his reasoning, if not judgement. There’s some truth to that IMHO, explains the ‘reaching’ used for some of his points.

Can’t wait to see what the CJEU makes of it in due course. Imagine if MPs vote down the withdrawal agreement on the 11th, in (full or partial) reliance on the AG’s opinion and expecting to push towards an Art.50 notice revocation, only for the CJEU judgement to u-turn the AG after the Meaningful Vote, just about guaranteeing a no deal Brexit: you’d be able to see the fireworks from the Moon!

An Ciarraioch · 04-12-2018 2:52pm

New ComRes polls have voters rejecting both May's deal and no deal, neither wanting to stay in the EU or a second referendum, wanting the EU to renegotiate, but not an extension to Article 50:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069720867180027909

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069721050198499329

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069721145128161282

Leroy42 · 04-12-2018 2:59pm

^^ so basically nobody has the slightest Scooby Do about what to actually do!

RobMc59 · 04-12-2018 3:01pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

It won't change anything on the Brexiteer side, but all those Remainer MPs being faced with a choice of May's deal rock or a chaotic-Brexit hard place suddenly have a third way forward. With a unilateral revocation of A50 on the table, there's absolutely no reason for May's deal to be passed by either side, neither on a first vote nor a second.

You are 100%correct.And if the UK consigns the TM deal to the bin where it belongs and there is eventually a people's vote there is a real possibility of the UK remaining-only thing, i get the distinct impression this decision by the EU isn't very popular on this forum which contradicts what most seem to say that they would prefer the UK to remain?

Professor Moriarty · 04-12-2018 3:04pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

New ComRes polls have voters rejecting both May's deal and no deal, neither wanting to stay in the EU or a second referendum, wanting the EU to renegotiate, but not an extension to Article 50:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069720867180027909

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069721050198499329

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069721145128161282

Very disappointing. With all that's gone on, people in Britain still expect the EU to cave in and renegotiate. A majority - 45% - think this is what should happen. Sad, really. People in Britain aren't genetically stupid so it must be that they are woefully misinformed.

Nate--IRL-- · 04-12-2018 3:06pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

You are 100%correct.And if the UK consigns the TM deal to the bin where it belongs and there is eventually a people's vote there is a real possibility of the UK remaining-only thing, i get the distinct impression this decision by the EU isn't very popular on this forum which contradicts what most seem to say that they would prefer the UK to remain?

I think it's more the unilateral nature of it, which opens itself to shenanigans by the UK side.

Nate

demfad · 04-12-2018 3:07pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't see how. These people are committed to Brexit regardless of the havoc it wreaks on the country they purport to love.

If A50 can be revoked unilaterally no-deal is now easier to avoid: revoking is simpler, and there is more time to do it. This makes no-deal less likely.

If the Deal is voted down, then remain becomes more likely (no-deal is less likely). Ergo by voting the deal down Brexiteers are risking having no Brexit at all.

THis is especially the case as the Labour leadership seem to be coming around to the idea of a Referendum.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?CMP=share_btn_tw

The calculations for Brexiteers may have changed.

Leroy42 · 04-12-2018 3:10pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

You are 100%correct.And if the UK consigns the TM deal to the bin where it belongs and there is eventually a people's vote there is a real possibility of the UK remaining-only thing, i get the distinct impression this decision by the EU isn't very popular on this forum which contradicts what most seem to say that they would prefer the UK to remain?

Isn't very popular? What a strange thing to say. Where have people argued against it?

This isn't about whether the UK will stay or not, the UK have always had that power. In their hands. Under their control. These opinion, and even if the courts agrees, doesn't change that fact.

People want the UK to stay, it is in everybody's interest, theirs included, for them to remain. However, just like in any relationship, just because you want to to stay and you might even talk them into staying, it isn't always the right choice unless that other party has dealt with the fundamental reasons behind why they wanted to leave in the first place.

VinLieger · 04-12-2018 3:19pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Very disappointing. With all that's gone on, people in Britain still expect the EU to cave in and renegotiate. A majority - 45% - think this is what should happen. Sad, really. People in Britain aren't genetically stupid so it must be that they are woefully misinformed.

They have been lied to repeatedly over decades at this stage not just about the "evils" of Europe but about their economic might, political strength and place in the world, is it any wonder they are this blind to the realities of the situation?

Tell me how · 04-12-2018 3:29pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I dunno. A Remain by default or referendum win by a small margin will only kick the can down the road. The Eurosceptic genie is out of the lamp and he won't be going back in. When they were just a rump in the Tory party, a la Major's "bastards", they still caused a lot of trouble. Now that they have a mandate, built on lies but a mandate nonetheless, they will continue to paralyse Britain and by default hamper any progress in the EU. The whole farce is a boil that needs to be lanced but that won't be happening anytime soon.

I expect Brexit to happen. And, if it does as expected on the 29th of March, then a lot of the UK media, and other 'Global players' will immediately agitate as much as they can for disruption in other EU countries and then suggestions that they too should leave.

French protests will be reported as a sign that they are thinking of leaving.
Spanish right wing gains will be reported as a sign that they are thinking of leaving
Hungarian conservative motions will be reported as a sign that they are thinking of leaving
Euro-sceptics in those countries will invite Brexiteers to public demonstrations claiming the joys of sovereignty. The UK media will be on the outside (as always to be fair) and actively fueling anti-EU sentiment wherever it can.

I've said before I think Brexit has to happen in the sense of upholding the semblance of democracy. But, if a 2nd referendum was handled correctly, with an option to remain, I would hope that that could be used to say democracy was not rail-roaded and they would vote to do so. Let the Brexiteers lick their wounds and return. It's not attractive, but preferable to the alternative.

serfboard · 04-12-2018 3:46pm

VinLieger wrote: »

They have been lied to repeatedly over decades at this stage not just about the "evils" of Europe but about their economic might, political strength and place in the world, is it any wonder they are this blind to the realities of the situation?

I've often said that their misinformation starts in schools with their woefully incomplete teaching of history, "might of the empire", how the locals were just so glad to see the colonisers coming, and wilfully parted with their possessions as "gifts" to her majesty. Exporting food from one of their colonies while a famine was going on? Never heard of it.

Start with that base and then add the idea that the country still doesn't realise, decades after World War II finished, that they are not a great empire anymore.

Then pile on top of that decades of manipulation by Billionaire (unelected) media owners with their own agendas.A measure of xenophobia among some of the populace helps here.

Finally, add in the long-term effects of Thatcherism - privatising everything, and throwing workers either onto the scrapheap, or into low-paid, uncertain service jobs, coupled with more recently subjecting the public to unnecessary austerity by those fools Cameron and Osborne, and you have the perfect ingredients to make a Brexit cocktail mess.

Imreoir2 · 04-12-2018 4:05pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

New ComRes polls have voters rejecting both May's deal and no deal, neither wanting to stay in the EU or a second referendum, wanting the EU to renegotiate, but not an extension to Article 50:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069720867180027909

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069721050198499329

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069721145128161282

Nice to see they have finally figured out what they want. :rolleyes:

Given that both parliament and the people cannot figure out what to do, I think we are at a greater risk of a no-deal crash Brexit than at any point previous to this. Does anyone else find it surreal that after over two years of negioatations and with only a few months to go that we would still be seriously talking about options as wildly different as no Brexit and no-deal, with none of us able to say at this point which of them has the better chance of happening?

Is there another example of a modern democratic system being so compleatly broken by an issue? Regardless of every other issue, the political chaos that Brexit has caused was reason enough to reject it.

First Up · 04-12-2018 4:05pm

serfboard wrote: »

VinLieger wrote: »

They have been lied to repeatedly over decades at this stage not just about the "evils" of Europe but about their economic might, political strength and place in the world, is it any wonder they are this blind to the realities of the situation?

I've often said that their misinformation starts in schools with their woefully incomplete teaching of history, "might of the empire", how the locals were just so glad to see the colonisers coming, and wilfully parted with their possessions as "gifts" to her majesty. Exporting food from one of their colonies while a famine was going on? Never heard of it.

Start with that base and then add then idea that the country still doesn't realise, decades after World War II finished, that they are not a great empire anymore.

Then pile on top of that decades of manipulation by Billionaire (unelected) media owners with their own agendas.A measure of xenophobia among some of the populace helps here.

Finally, add in the long-term effects of Thatcherism - privatising everything, and throwing workers either onto the scrapheap, or into low-paid, uncertain service jobs, coupled with more recently subjecting the public to unnecessary austerity by those fools Cameron and Osborne, and you have the perfect ingredients to make a Brexit cocktail mess.

You don't have to go all that far back in history. Its mostly WW2 and to a lesser extent WW1.
Many in the UK feel that the rest of Europe still owes them a debt of gratitude and a status that properly reflects their sacrifices. They can't get their heads around countries like France and Belgium aligning with Germany and see it almost as betrayal.

That resentment permeates much of the attitude to the EU. It isn't rational but its deep in there and I've no idea how or when they will grow out of it.

Strazdas · 04-12-2018 4:09pm

serfboard wrote: »

I've often said that their misinformation starts in schools with their woefully incomplete teaching of history, "might of the empire", how the locals were just so glad to see the colonisers coming, and wilfully parted with their possessions as "gifts" to her majesty. Exporting food from one of their colonies while a famine was going on? Never heard of it.

Start with that base and then add then idea that the country still doesn't realise, decades after World War II finished, that they are not a great empire anymore.

Then pile on top of that decades of manipulation by Billionaire (unelected) media owners with their own agendas.A measure of xenophobia among some of the populace helps here.

Finally, add in the long-term effects of Thatcherism - privatising everything, and throwing workers either onto the scrapheap, or into low-paid, uncertain service jobs, coupled with more recently subjecting the public to unnecessary austerity by those fools Cameron and Osborne, and you have the perfect ingredients to make a Brexit cocktail mess.

Yes, you could argue Brexit is a symptom of a dysfunctional UK rather than the cause of it. The UK itself is the problem, Brexit merely the tool that has brought everything to the surface.

04-12-2018 4:51pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX2tuJSsKqY

The debate in the Commons is very interesting regarding the contempt thing.

Tabnabs · 04-12-2018 5:07pm

BBC not going ahead with Brexit debate.

DtlZve2XQAAneP0.jpg:large

Infini · 04-12-2018 5:08pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

However, politically it isn't possible. Reversing the referendum result in parliament only would not go down well at all so the result has to be acted on. The only way Brexit could be stopped at this stage is a second referendum.

It certainly is possible even more that being able to rescind A50 is actually an option now by the looks of things. The refererendum was ultimately advisory they arent compelled to Brexit as the result could very well be argued as a deadlock.

The result wasnt an overwhelming one with less than 2% majority in favour of leave and thats only out of those who did vote. Take into account the russian troll factor, blatent lies of the campaign, cheating and dodgy spending of the leave campaign amongst others and the fact that 2 1/2 years of this results in a WA most cannot agree to and the economic costs and Parliment can very well direct the UK government to cancel brexit and revoke A50 based on the above and because Brexit simply cannot be delivered without either giving up control (not taking it back) or suffering drastic economic damage.

The problems the UK have are their own homegrown ones not the EU's and they cant keep blaming others for their own failures. They need to bite the bullet on this and end this charade its either stay in the EU with control, leave and give up control with no say or crash and wreck their own country. The choice is obvious to us but its up to them to cop on and make the best one.

A Dub in Glasgo · 04-12-2018 5:11pm

Well done to the those who took this Article 50 revocation case in Scotland, the UK Government fought hard wasting tens of thousands of public money to try and get the case thrown out. The EU member states through the commission also argued a member state cannot unilaterally revoke Article 50

This holes the UK government under the waterline with their 'revoking is not an option as the rules do not allow it' mantra

https://twitter.com/bricksilk/status/1069920051027984386

J Mysterio · 04-12-2018 6:00pm

EdgeCase wrote: »

The amazing bit is the considerable lengths the UK government went to to argue that revoking the article 50 letter is impossible and even spending substantial resources on legal representation to try and stop the case from ever being heard.

That’s not something you do if you know you’ve a strong argument and a sturdy mandate.

They’re obviously trying to make this irrevocable.

Indeed. The vague, ill defined advisory referendum is in fact an unimpeachable mandate to deliver a very specific, unstoppable Brexit!

An Ciarraioch · 04-12-2018 6:02pm

Officially declared in contempt by 311 votes to 293.

c.p.w.g.w · 04-12-2018 6:04pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Officially declared in contempt by 311 votes to 293.

The government will drag their heels, referring it to the privilege committee

lawred2 · 04-12-2018 6:04pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Officially declared in contempt by 311 votes to 293.

are there any real implications for that?

An Ciarraioch · 04-12-2018 6:07pm

Leadsom already announced the advice will be published tomorrow.

farmchoice · 04-12-2018 6:10pm

they will now publish the full legal advise tomorrow.
its unprecedented for a government to be found in contempt of parliament.

now there is a suspicion that they got the worst of it out of the way yesterday but there will be a lot of stuff for MP's to get excited about and throw at may over the next week,

if she ever had any chance of her getting her deal done its gone now.

its hard to see her survive a no confidence vote if one comes now after the meaningful vote is lost.

c.p.w.g.w · 04-12-2018 6:10pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Leadsom already announced the advice will be published tomorrow.

Think she said the government will make a statement tomorrow, don't think she said it would be published tomorrow

farmchoice · 04-12-2018 6:11pm

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Think she said the government will make a statement tomorrow, don't think she said it would be published tomorrow

i understood it to mean it would be published tomorrow.

BabyCheeses · 04-12-2018 6:11pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

^^ so basically nobody has the slightest Scooby Do about what to actually do!

It's been a productive few years.

LeinsterDub · 04-12-2018 6:11pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Officially declared in contempt by 311 votes to 293.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1070001166464049152

Video here if you're interested . Of course this is all just pantomime and will make very little difference.

Tell me how · 04-12-2018 6:14pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Video here if you're interested . Of course this is all just pantomime and will make very little difference.

Which way did the DUP vote?

maximoose · 04-12-2018 6:20pm

farmchoice wrote: »

i understood it to mean it would be published tomorrow.

Yep, it'll be out tomorrow

Awesomeness · 04-12-2018 6:21pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Which way did the DUP vote?

Against. According to Dodds they did not break the confidence and supply agreement. Theresa May broke it

04-12-2018 6:21pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Which way did the DUP vote?

Given the numbers they must have voted against the government.

The guardian say they voted against.

VinLieger · 04-12-2018 6:22pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Which way did the DUP vote?

Against the government

Tell me how · 04-12-2018 6:28pm

Awesomeness wrote: »

Against. According to Dodds they did not break the confidence and supply agreement. Theresa May broke it

'I know you are but what am I' level response by Dodd's. Unsurprisingly.

Deleted User wrote: »

Given the numbers they must have voted against the government.
The guardian say they voted against.

VinLieger wrote: »

Against the government

First time ever government has been found in contempt by Parliament apparently.

Leroy42 · 04-12-2018 6:29pm

And let us not forget that Davis should have been found in contempt with his little ruse about the impact statements.

Hurrache · 04-12-2018 6:41pm

The Grieve amendment being debated now will be interesting to watch. If passed it means that MPs can direct what the government is to do if the vote next week fails to pass. So in theory they can say no deal, 2nd ref, remain and so on.

Awesomeness · 04-12-2018 6:44pm

Hurrache wrote: »

The Grieve amendment being debated now will be interesting to watch. If passed it means that MPs can direct what the government is to do if the vote next week fails to pass. So in theory they can say no deal, 2nd ref, remain and so on.

But wont they still need to find a majority to vote for one of these options?

If so isn't it most likely they vote to open talks with EU again and the EU tells them no

Strazdas · 04-12-2018 7:07pm

Awesomeness wrote: »

But wont they still need to find a majority to vote for one of these options?

If so isn't it most likely they vote to open talks with EU again and the EU tells them no

The EU will say "no" to any unravelling of the May deal.

But if the UK went back to them and said it wanted full membership of the Single Market, that would be a whole new ball game.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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