Boxing betting thread

normanoffside · 30-11-2018 3:05pm

Morrison J wrote: »

Yeah i'm taking that 16/5 on Stevenson KO. I think that's great value.

I did a small double on the Stevenson KO/TKO/DQ along with Boschiero to beat Ward tonight.

I had a good look at the Ward and Boschiero records and there is nothing there to suggest Ward is levels above, they seem pretty evenly matched on paper. Given that it's the first ever bout for Matchroom Italy, Boschiero might get the home nod in a tight contest.

Morrison J · 30-11-2018 4:03pm

normanoffside wrote: »

I did a small double on the Stevenson KO/TKO/DQ along with Boschiero to beat Ward tonight.

I had a good look at the Ward and Boschiero records and there is nothing there to suggest Ward is levels above, they seem pretty evenly matched on paper. Given that it's the first ever bout for Matchroom Italy, Boschiero might get the home nod in a tight contest.

Boschiero has mixed it at the higher level for sure alright. I haven't seen enough of him to have any feeling for it tbh. Ward is a decent boxer I think. Not sure Boschiero will have the dig to give him many problems but as you say the cards may favour him if its a close fight. Ward has zero value to Matchroom. Could be worth a punt.

Missed opportunity with Jeff Horn earlier. I really should've been on the KO. Made extremely easy work of it.

normanoffside · 30-11-2018 10:21pm

Ah well, close enough! Boschiero was worse than I thought ans Ward not up to much either.

Morrison J · 06-12-2018 3:12pm

Kell Brook to win in rounds 1-6 @ 5/6

Morrison J · 06-12-2018 5:35pm

Lion Killer wrote: »

Easy money. Where did you get those odds?

Ladbrokes. You can get 11/10 with SkyBet apparently.

Morrison J · 06-12-2018 5:50pm

Lion Killer wrote: »

Cheers. Rabchenko was more proven and better than this Aussie. Rabchenko also had the benefit of sparring Brook in the past and he didn't last at all.

I'd be shocked if Kell didn't get him out of there early. Zerafa's most notable fight he ended up getting stretchered out against Quilin in a mismatch.

Yeah Brook is a good finisher and doesn’t tend to carry fighters bellow his level (Saldivia, Dan, Gavin, Bizier, Rabchenko.) Would be surprised if Zerafa can survive past 6.

normanoffside · 06-12-2018 9:55pm

Anyone know anything about Jono Carroll's opponent?
He's 46-1 but you can get 11/4 on him to beat Jono.

Morrison J · 07-12-2018 4:38pm

normanoffside wrote: »

Anyone know anything about Jono Carroll's opponent?
He's 46-1 but you can get 11/4 on him to beat Jono.

Not seen him but seems like the deal for Jono to fight Tevin Farmer in the States on DAZN is all sealed. Just looking at this guys BoxRec he obviously has no power. Carroll is as fit as they come so he's not going to tire out. Can't see Jono being outboxed to the extent that they can't find a way of giving it to him on the cards.

Morrison J · 07-12-2018 4:41pm

Also on Lomachenko in rounds 7-12 @7/4

normanoffside · 09-12-2018 11:18am

normanoffside wrote: »

Anyone know anything about Jono Carroll's opponent?
He's 46-1 but you can get 11/4 on him to beat Jono.

Glad i didn't bet that now, would have been raging!

weemcd · 09-12-2018 12:39pm

Morrison J wrote: »

Also on Lomachenko in rounds 7-12 @7/4

Unlucky, shoulda had that one. Good shout.

Morrison J · 10-12-2018 10:15pm

pac_man wrote: »

The method of victory prices aren't out yet but surely Mickey Garcia has gone a step too far fighting Errol Spence?

Think Mikey will look good early on but I can't imagine him lasting 12. Similar pattern to Brook-GGG I reckon with Mikey maybe taking it to the latter rounds before being stopped. The size difference is scary and will surely be too much.

The main fight I'm keeping an eye on is Pacquiao-Broner. Pacquiao is 1/2 outright. Holding out to back him on points which will surely be better than evens. I really struggle to see anything but Pacquiao points in that fight. Broner's chin is proven.

Morrison J · 14-12-2018 4:18pm

Do we think Fielding can go many rounds against Canelo?

Canelo in rounds 1-6 @ 6/5 has me tempted.

Fielding looks like a guy on holiday more than a guy gearing up for the biggest fight of his life to me. Reckon he could fold fairly easily. Just not sure how cautious Canelo will be given the size difference. Fielding really is awful like.

weemcd · 18-12-2018 8:29pm

Anyone think Warrington is highly overpriced v Frampton? Frampton is favourite and rightly so, but not by as much as this, for me, I'd have the pair of them very close overall.

weemcd · 19-12-2018 12:21am

pac_man wrote: »

I think he's priced correctly. I can't help but feel that Warrington's win over Selby should have an asterisk beside it. Selby was like a corpse at the weight and eventually got found out.

I think Warrington backers are banking on his workrate and Frampton tiring. I can see it as a similar fight to when Frampton fought Quigg with Warrington maybe picking up a few rounds towards the end but for me Frampton is just an all round better operator.

Speaking of overpriced, I don't think Matt Korobov should be 8/1.

My bet is Ryan Walsh to beat Reece Bellotti. It was evens yesterday, now 5/6.

Good points, I myself am of the mindset you're mentioning there, placing a lot of value on the Selby win. Perhaps I'm underrating Frampton and overrating Warrington in this.

Morrison J · 19-12-2018 4:02pm

Like Ryan Walsh myself. Money flying in on him down to 8/13 now. Think I've missed the boat there. Evens was a brilliant price.

I've two bets on so far.

Double: Frampton-Warrington to go the distance + Jermall Charlo to win bvia stoppage v Korobov. Works out at 11/8.

I really can't see how Frampton-Warrington doesn't go the distance. Neither have big power at featherweight. Both have proven chins.

Korobov has been fighting at 175 recently and is being brought down to 160 at short notice. He's 35 now. Should take a lot out of him. Been stopped before and is the perfect style matchup for Charlo I think. Would be shocked if Charlo doesn't stop him.

Rosales to stop Edwards in rounds 7-12 @ 16/5.

Only a small bet as think those odds are decent. Rosales seems like one of these guys who'll keep a consistent pace and grind guys down. Not sure Edwards will have the power to keep him off for 12 rounds.

walshb · 19-12-2018 4:05pm

Morrison J wrote: »

I really can't see how Frampton-Warrington doesn't go the distance. Neither have big power at featherweight. Both have proven chins.
.

Seems the smart money, alright!

Morrison J · 19-12-2018 4:22pm

Feck it two more

Ryan Walsh on points @ 5/2

Martin Murray on points @ 11/10

FTA69 · 20-12-2018 1:44am

Took a double on Frampton points at 6/5 and Whyte points at 5/4. Think it pays out around 100 for a 20 bet.

simongurnick · 21-12-2018 4:59am

Betway offering a special 5/1 Frampton stoppage. I know decision is more likely but that's why it's 5s. Anyone see value in a small punt?

Kaiser84 · 21-12-2018 2:26pm

simongurnick wrote: »

Betway offering a special 5/1 Frampton stoppage. I know decision is more likely but that's why it's 5s. Anyone see value in a small punt?

I think there is an excellent chance Frampton will stop him.

That's a very good price.

Morrison J · 03-01-2019 5:59pm

Caleb Plant is 4/1 to beat Uzcategui.

Uzcategui hype seems to have gone way overboard. People getting carried away with him beating a shot Dirrell. This is a 50/50 fight I think. 4/1 is very good value.

Morrison J · 07-01-2019 4:25pm

Morrison J wrote: »

Caleb Plant is 4/1 to beat Uzcategui.

Uzcategui hype seems to have gone way overboard. People getting carried away with him beating a shot Dirrell. This is a 50/50 fight I think. 4/1 is very good value.

Plant now as short as 15/8.

Pacquiao to beat Broner on points @ evens feels like free money to me. I really struggle to see any other outcome.

akelly02 · 07-01-2019 4:27pm

Morrison J wrote: »

Plant now as short as 15/8.

Pacquiao to beat Broner on points @ evens feels like free money to me. I really struggle to see any other outcome.

surely pac has regressed quite a bit if he was beaten by Horn not to long ago .

Any way Broner takes it on points?

Morrison J · 07-01-2019 4:39pm

akelly02 wrote: »

surely pac has regressed quite a bit if he was beaten by Horn not to long ago .

Any way Broner takes it on points?

I think he probably took Horn a bit lightly. Also think Horn was a far tougher style match up. Horn could match Manny for activity and was the far bigger man meaning he could outman Manny and make it difficult for him to keep him off of him.

Broner doesn't throw enough punches to be able to live with Manny's output and he's way too flat footed to keep Manny from getting inside.

I expect the fight to be pretty one-sided tbh. There's levels between them. Thought Broner definitely lost to Vargas and the Granados fight was extremely close although I did have him sneaking it. Could easily be coming in with three losses in a row.

Also sounds like Showtime want to put Pacquiao in with the Spence-Mikey winner so Pacquiao is the house fighter in this one. More likely to get the nod if the fight does happen to be close.

normanoffside · 14-01-2019 9:54am

Morrison J wrote: »

Caleb Plant is 4/1 to beat Uzcategui.

Uzcategui hype seems to have gone way overboard. People getting carried away with him beating a shot Dirrell. This is a 50/50 fight I think. 4/1 is very good value.

Great shout again.

Morrison J · 14-01-2019 11:04pm

pac_man wrote: »

I was thinking to myself, that there must be something hot about this Uzcategui if Degale gave up his belt to avoid him. The manner in which he beat Dirrell was eye catching. I watched Plant and didn't think he was all that good but he boxed the ears off that fella last night.

Going to have to start putting down some money on your predications. Fair play to you.

Think if DeGale was a year or two younger and not coming off shoulder surgery he'd have taken the Uzcategui fight. Not a great matchup for him and fights with Eubank/Groves/Saunders sell whether or not there's a belt on the line so DeGale prob just said **** it I'll vacate.

Dirrell was definitely a shell of himself. Actually thought it really showed when he fought DeGale. Feet and reflexes gone and looked very fragile. DeGale hurt him numerous times and DeGale is hardly what you'd call a power puncher.

The manner in how a high level boxer in Korobov literally pissed it against Uzcategui was probably the biggest tell of all. Made it look very easy. I didn't think for a second Plant would make it look easy too mind. He far exceeded my expectations. Really impressive performance, proved his toughness down the stretch too.

jamescd · 20-01-2019 8:17am

Morrison J wrote: »

Pacquiao to beat Broner on points @ evens feels like free money to me. I really struggle to see any other outcome.

Free money indeed. I'm not normally a betting man but I was 99% sure it was gonna be a decision to Pac so I had to make an exception

Morrison J · 24-01-2019 8:12pm

David Allen 6/5
Lucas Browne 8/13

Interesting how close they've priced this fight. Want to see what kind of shape Browne is in before betting but if he's in-shape he'll be great value. A level above Dave Allen surely.

normanoffside · 24-01-2019 8:35pm

Morrison J wrote: »

David Allen 6/5
Lucas Browne 8/13

Interesting how close they've priced this fight. Want to see what kind of shape Browne is in before betting but if he's in-shape he'll be great value. A level above Dave Allen surely.

Yeah, Browne should be a dead cert. Worth keeping an eye on.
I have a feeling Bookies are looking at this thread though :pac:

Morrison J · 29-01-2019 5:03am

Great shout on Thurman. Wasn't touching that fight with a barge-pole myself.

Liking Alvarez this weekend too. Kovalev is shot to bits and extremely fragile. Will surely look for a way out when it gets tough. A repeat of the first fight I think.

Be a good story if Kovalev could show flashes of his prime again and win but I struggle to see him grind his way through 12 hard rounds.

Something close to 2/1 on Alvarez KO and I'll be taking it I think.

Angliru · 29-01-2019 7:09pm

Personally I think there is decent value in Kovalev this weekend. He was winning the fight at the time of the stoppage and wasn't looking that bad. McGirt should have ironed out some issues too. My biggest worry about backing Kovalev is that he recently beat up a woman and his mind might be elsewhere considering the extent of the charges...saying that, a boxer died after fighting Kovalev and Kovalev and that didn't seem to effect his performances so maybe he won't bat an eyelid whilst he's in the ring.

Morrison J · 30-01-2019 9:42pm

Angliru wrote: »

Personally I think there is decent value in Kovalev this weekend. He was winning the fight at the time of the stoppage and wasn't looking that bad. McGirt should have ironed out some issues too. My biggest worry about backing Kovalev is that he recently beat up a woman and his mind might be elsewhere considering the extent of the charges...saying that, a boxer died after fighting Kovalev and Kovalev and that didn't seem to effect his performances so maybe he won't bat an eyelid whilst he's in the ring.

There probably is value in Kovalev at this point. I just couldn't trust him enough to back him personally. Not a hidden secret that Kovalev is fond of the drink and apparently he beat up this woman after a party so obviously he's not cut the drink out anyway. Hard not to imagine the stamina issues rearing their head once again come the mid rounds of the fight.

Think I'm staying away from the fight altogether. Definitely leaning Alvarez KO but not at 11/10.

Ball, Cheeseman + Teofimo Lopez KO pays 2/1. Small bet on that for some interest.

clubwelly · 01-02-2019 10:53pm

I know its not for another week or two but James DeGale points or decision is 7/4 with Paddy Power or 15/8 with Ladbrokes

Morrison J · 02-02-2019 8:59pm

Little bit on Ball to beat Richards on points at 2/1. Have faith in Ingle taking him up a level.

Morrison J · 02-02-2019 10:30pm

Didn't realise Ball had zero punch resistance

Angliru · 10-02-2019 11:18pm

Okada to beat Beltran @ 10/3 is solid. Okada by decision @ 7/1 also great.

Morrison J · 11-02-2019 1:58am

Angliru wrote: »

Okada to beat Beltran @ 10/3 is solid. Okada by decision @ 7/1 also great.

No shame in that result. Okada gave it a right good go. Was definitely overpriced. Very good fight.

Angliru · 23-02-2019 1:14pm

Eubank by decision @4.0 on PP/Hills/Betfair looks very tasty. I'd have doubts over Eubank's power anyway, especially at 168 and DeGale is a tough lad who won't want to quit against someone like Eubank.

Dirrell by decision @2.9 on Boyles is also a bet I like. Dirrell has talked about retirement so I'd question his motivation but he should have enough to win a decision against a plodder like Yildirim. It is as big as @3.35 on some other betting sites but I neither have an account with them or know if they serve Irish customers.

markc91 · 24-02-2019 12:54am

Angliru wrote: »

Eubank by decision @4.0 on PP/Hills/Betfair looks very tasty. I'd have doubts over Eubank's power anyway, especially at 168 and DeGale is a tough lad who won't want to quit against someone like Eubank.

Dirrell by decision @2.9 on Boyles is also a bet I like. Dirrell has talked about retirement so I'd question his motivation but he should have enough to win a decision against a plodder like Yildirim. It is as big as @3.35 on some other betting sites but I neither have an account with them or know if they serve Irish customers.

Cheers for the Eubank bet, made my interest in the fight increase not that it wasnt interesting enough!

Seanachai · 24-02-2019 12:54pm

Angliru wrote: »

Eubank by decision @4.0 on PP/Hills/Betfair looks very tasty. I'd have doubts over Eubank's power anyway, especially at 168 and DeGale is a tough lad who won't want to quit against someone like Eubank.

Dirrell by decision @2.9 on Boyles is also a bet I like. Dirrell has talked about retirement so I'd question his motivation but he should have enough to win a decision against a plodder like Yildirim. It is as big as @3.35 on some other betting sites but I neither have an account with them or know if they serve Irish customers.

Cheers for that man

Morrison J · 27-02-2019 4:57pm

I'm surprised McCarthy is favourite tbh. Riakporhe is a one trick pony but he's been getting a fair bit of hype. If you scan social media the general consensus seems to be that this will be an easy KO for him. Hopefully the odds will swing as a result.

I can only really see McCarthy on points or Riakporhe by KO. Would side McCarthy points but going to need better value to pull the plug on him I think.

Johner · 27-02-2019 5:33pm

Riakporhe looked absolutely dreadful in his last fight. Lost nearly every round until that horror eye injury for Hyde.

Hard to gauge if McCarthy is any use though, has looked bang average so far. Tough fight to call but I'd side with McCarthy on points at 7/4.

Morrison J · 01-03-2019 4:11pm

pac_man wrote: »

How much notice was McCarthy given for this fight? I think I'd wait till the weigh in and see what shape he's in. I think he's technically better and would favour him on pts but might hold off till Friday.

Came in the lightest I ever remember him. Had a fight three weeks ago and went 8 rounds. I think he's in good shape and ready.

Got him to win on points @ 15/8

Morrison J · 01-03-2019 4:20pm

Not confident on this one at all but taking a punt on Castano to win in rounds 7-12 against Lara @10/1. Think thats decent value. Lara 35 now and coming off that brutal fight with Hurd. Facing another very good pressure fighter who will make him work. Might see another Cuban quit.

Angliru · 02-03-2019 12:07pm

Some tempting bets this weekend:

McCarthy on points @2.88
Lara on points @2.1
Ortiz 6-10 @2.88

Taking a risk on Bryan De Gracia to beat Eduardo Ramirez who had to come back to make weight (missed weight against Selby too). De Gracia looked incredible in comparison. Moneyline is @ 2.38 but I like the win by KO @4.5

Morrison J · 02-03-2019 10:11pm

Morrison J wrote: »

I'm surprised McCarthy is favourite tbh. Riakporhe is a one trick pony but he's been getting a fair bit of hype. If you scan social media the general consensus seems to be that this will be an easy KO for him. Hopefully the odds will swing as a result.

I can only really see McCarthy on points or Riakporhe by KO. Would side McCarthy points but going to need better value to pull the plug on him I think.

Riakporhe wins by KO. Didn't like the look of the fight from the start. Surprised how much bigger he looked compared to McCarthy. McCarthy had to keep taking risks to get inside his jab and eventually got caught. Was boxing ok up till that point. Shame for McCarthy. Hard to see where he goes from here. Hopefully can keep himself in the mix.

Morrison J · 07-03-2019 10:57pm

Callum Johnson to beat Seanie Monaghan via KO @ 5/6

Spence to beat Garcia via KO @ 5/4

Boooourns · 12-03-2019 11:23am

Morrison J wrote: »

Callum Johnson to beat Seanie Monaghan via KO @ 5/6

Spence to beat Garcia via KO @ 5/4

Saw this and completely forgot to do the first one, great call because its a great price as is the Spence jr one.

Morrison J · 12-03-2019 3:27pm

Boooourns wrote: »

Saw this and completely forgot to do the first one, great call because its a great price as is the Spence jr one.

Yeah I'm seeing loads of people picking Garcia this week and I can't understand it at all. People trying to be a bit too smart I think. He'll likely look good for a few rounds and fade before getting stopped. Really can't see how he wins. Basically three weight divisions between them.

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