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Boxing betting thread

So in light of quite a few people cleaning up on Senchenko's victory against Hatton tonight, I thought it appropriate to make a thread where people discuss betting on boxing.

I think if you know your stuff, boxing is a much more predictable sport than the likes of football. I tend to bet a lot on outcomes with low payouts than betting a little on big upsets.

I think 3-1 odds at Boylesports on Guerrero by decision tonight is very good value. He's a far more polished boxer than Berto, who's been out of the ring for over a year now. Berto clearly has the size and power advantage but I think there's a good chance Guerrero will box clever to a decision.

Seeing as I won a nice amount on a Senchenko stoppage, I'm going to have another punt tonight.

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simongurnick wrote: »

Betway offering a special 5/1 Frampton stoppage. I know decision is more likely but that's why it's 5s. Anyone see value in a small punt?

I think there is an excellent chance Frampton will stop him.

That's a very good price.

Caleb Plant is 4/1 to beat Uzcategui.

Uzcategui hype seems to have gone way overboard. People getting carried away with him beating a shot Dirrell. This is a 50/50 fight I think. 4/1 is very good value.

Morrison J wrote: »

Caleb Plant is 4/1 to beat Uzcategui.

Uzcategui hype seems to have gone way overboard. People getting carried away with him beating a shot Dirrell. This is a 50/50 fight I think. 4/1 is very good value.

Plant now as short as 15/8.

Pacquiao to beat Broner on points @ evens feels like free money to me. I really struggle to see any other outcome.

Morrison J wrote: »

Plant now as short as 15/8.

Pacquiao to beat Broner on points @ evens feels like free money to me. I really struggle to see any other outcome.

surely pac has regressed quite a bit if he was beaten by Horn not to long ago .

Any way Broner takes it on points?

akelly02 wrote: »

surely pac has regressed quite a bit if he was beaten by Horn not to long ago .

Any way Broner takes it on points?

I think he probably took Horn a bit lightly. Also think Horn was a far tougher style match up. Horn could match Manny for activity and was the far bigger man meaning he could outman Manny and make it difficult for him to keep him off of him.

Broner doesn't throw enough punches to be able to live with Manny's output and he's way too flat footed to keep Manny from getting inside.

I expect the fight to be pretty one-sided tbh. There's levels between them. Thought Broner definitely lost to Vargas and the Granados fight was extremely close although I did have him sneaking it. Could easily be coming in with three losses in a row.

Also sounds like Showtime want to put Pacquiao in with the Spence-Mikey winner so Pacquiao is the house fighter in this one. More likely to get the nod if the fight does happen to be close.

Morrison J wrote: »

Caleb Plant is 4/1 to beat Uzcategui.

Uzcategui hype seems to have gone way overboard. People getting carried away with him beating a shot Dirrell. This is a 50/50 fight I think. 4/1 is very good value.

Great shout again.

pac_man wrote: »

I was thinking to myself, that there must be something hot about this Uzcategui if Degale gave up his belt to avoid him. The manner in which he beat Dirrell was eye catching. I watched Plant and didn't think he was all that good but he boxed the ears off that fella last night.

Going to have to start putting down some money on your predications. Fair play to you.

Think if DeGale was a year or two younger and not coming off shoulder surgery he'd have taken the Uzcategui fight. Not a great matchup for him and fights with Eubank/Groves/Saunders sell whether or not there's a belt on the line so DeGale prob just said **** it I'll vacate.

Dirrell was definitely a shell of himself. Actually thought it really showed when he fought DeGale. Feet and reflexes gone and looked very fragile. DeGale hurt him numerous times and DeGale is hardly what you'd call a power puncher.

The manner in how a high level boxer in Korobov literally pissed it against Uzcategui was probably the biggest tell of all. Made it look very easy. I didn't think for a second Plant would make it look easy too mind. He far exceeded my expectations. Really impressive performance, proved his toughness down the stretch too.

Morrison J wrote: »

Pacquiao to beat Broner on points @ evens feels like free money to me. I really struggle to see any other outcome.

Free money indeed. I'm not normally a betting man but I was 99% sure it was gonna be a decision to Pac so I had to make an exception

David Allen 6/5
Lucas Browne 8/13

Interesting how close they've priced this fight. Want to see what kind of shape Browne is in before betting but if he's in-shape he'll be great value. A level above Dave Allen surely.

Morrison J wrote: »

David Allen 6/5
Lucas Browne 8/13

Interesting how close they've priced this fight. Want to see what kind of shape Browne is in before betting but if he's in-shape he'll be great value. A level above Dave Allen surely.

Yeah, Browne should be a dead cert. Worth keeping an eye on.
I have a feeling Bookies are looking at this thread though :pac:

Great shout on Thurman. Wasn't touching that fight with a barge-pole myself.

Liking Alvarez this weekend too. Kovalev is shot to bits and extremely fragile. Will surely look for a way out when it gets tough. A repeat of the first fight I think.

Be a good story if Kovalev could show flashes of his prime again and win but I struggle to see him grind his way through 12 hard rounds.

Something close to 2/1 on Alvarez KO and I'll be taking it I think.

Personally I think there is decent value in Kovalev this weekend. He was winning the fight at the time of the stoppage and wasn't looking that bad. McGirt should have ironed out some issues too. My biggest worry about backing Kovalev is that he recently beat up a woman and his mind might be elsewhere considering the extent of the charges...saying that, a boxer died after fighting Kovalev and Kovalev and that didn't seem to effect his performances so maybe he won't bat an eyelid whilst he's in the ring.

Angliru wrote: »

Personally I think there is decent value in Kovalev this weekend. He was winning the fight at the time of the stoppage and wasn't looking that bad. McGirt should have ironed out some issues too. My biggest worry about backing Kovalev is that he recently beat up a woman and his mind might be elsewhere considering the extent of the charges...saying that, a boxer died after fighting Kovalev and Kovalev and that didn't seem to effect his performances so maybe he won't bat an eyelid whilst he's in the ring.

There probably is value in Kovalev at this point. I just couldn't trust him enough to back him personally. Not a hidden secret that Kovalev is fond of the drink and apparently he beat up this woman after a party so obviously he's not cut the drink out anyway. Hard not to imagine the stamina issues rearing their head once again come the mid rounds of the fight.

Think I'm staying away from the fight altogether. Definitely leaning Alvarez KO but not at 11/10.

Ball, Cheeseman + Teofimo Lopez KO pays 2/1. Small bet on that for some interest.

I know its not for another week or two but James DeGale points or decision is 7/4 with Paddy Power or 15/8 with Ladbrokes

Little bit on Ball to beat Richards on points at 2/1. Have faith in Ingle taking him up a level.

Didn't realise Ball had zero punch resistance

Okada to beat Beltran @ 10/3 is solid. Okada by decision @ 7/1 also great.

Angliru wrote: »

Okada to beat Beltran @ 10/3 is solid. Okada by decision @ 7/1 also great.

No shame in that result. Okada gave it a right good go. Was definitely overpriced. Very good fight.

Eubank by decision @4.0 on PP/Hills/Betfair looks very tasty. I'd have doubts over Eubank's power anyway, especially at 168 and DeGale is a tough lad who won't want to quit against someone like Eubank.

Dirrell by decision @2.9 on Boyles is also a bet I like. Dirrell has talked about retirement so I'd question his motivation but he should have enough to win a decision against a plodder like Yildirim. It is as big as @3.35 on some other betting sites but I neither have an account with them or know if they serve Irish customers.

Angliru wrote: »

Eubank by decision @4.0 on PP/Hills/Betfair looks very tasty. I'd have doubts over Eubank's power anyway, especially at 168 and DeGale is a tough lad who won't want to quit against someone like Eubank.

Dirrell by decision @2.9 on Boyles is also a bet I like. Dirrell has talked about retirement so I'd question his motivation but he should have enough to win a decision against a plodder like Yildirim. It is as big as @3.35 on some other betting sites but I neither have an account with them or know if they serve Irish customers.

Cheers for the Eubank bet, made my interest in the fight increase not that it wasnt interesting enough!

Angliru wrote: »

Eubank by decision @4.0 on PP/Hills/Betfair looks very tasty. I'd have doubts over Eubank's power anyway, especially at 168 and DeGale is a tough lad who won't want to quit against someone like Eubank.

Dirrell by decision @2.9 on Boyles is also a bet I like. Dirrell has talked about retirement so I'd question his motivation but he should have enough to win a decision against a plodder like Yildirim. It is as big as @3.35 on some other betting sites but I neither have an account with them or know if they serve Irish customers.

Cheers for that man

I'm surprised McCarthy is favourite tbh. Riakporhe is a one trick pony but he's been getting a fair bit of hype. If you scan social media the general consensus seems to be that this will be an easy KO for him. Hopefully the odds will swing as a result.

I can only really see McCarthy on points or Riakporhe by KO. Would side McCarthy points but going to need better value to pull the plug on him I think.

Riakporhe looked absolutely dreadful in his last fight. Lost nearly every round until that horror eye injury for Hyde.

Hard to gauge if McCarthy is any use though, has looked bang average so far. Tough fight to call but I'd side with McCarthy on points at 7/4.

pac_man wrote: »

How much notice was McCarthy given for this fight? I think I'd wait till the weigh in and see what shape he's in. I think he's technically better and would favour him on pts but might hold off till Friday.

Came in the lightest I ever remember him. Had a fight three weeks ago and went 8 rounds. I think he's in good shape and ready.

Got him to win on points @ 15/8

Not confident on this one at all but taking a punt on Castano to win in rounds 7-12 against Lara @10/1. Think thats decent value. Lara 35 now and coming off that brutal fight with Hurd. Facing another very good pressure fighter who will make him work. Might see another Cuban quit.

Some tempting bets this weekend:

McCarthy on points @2.88
Lara on points @2.1
Ortiz 6-10 @2.88

Taking a risk on Bryan De Gracia to beat Eduardo Ramirez who had to come back to make weight (missed weight against Selby too). De Gracia looked incredible in comparison. Moneyline is @ 2.38 but I like the win by KO @4.5

Morrison J wrote: »

I'm surprised McCarthy is favourite tbh. Riakporhe is a one trick pony but he's been getting a fair bit of hype. If you scan social media the general consensus seems to be that this will be an easy KO for him. Hopefully the odds will swing as a result.

I can only really see McCarthy on points or Riakporhe by KO. Would side McCarthy points but going to need better value to pull the plug on him I think.

Riakporhe wins by KO. Didn't like the look of the fight from the start. Surprised how much bigger he looked compared to McCarthy. McCarthy had to keep taking risks to get inside his jab and eventually got caught. Was boxing ok up till that point. Shame for McCarthy. Hard to see where he goes from here. Hopefully can keep himself in the mix.

Callum Johnson to beat Seanie Monaghan via KO @ 5/6

Spence to beat Garcia via KO @ 5/4

Morrison J wrote: »

Callum Johnson to beat Seanie Monaghan via KO @ 5/6

Spence to beat Garcia via KO @ 5/4

Saw this and completely forgot to do the first one, great call because its a great price as is the Spence jr one.

Boooourns wrote: »

Saw this and completely forgot to do the first one, great call because its a great price as is the Spence jr one.

Yeah I'm seeing loads of people picking Garcia this week and I can't understand it at all. People trying to be a bit too smart I think. He'll likely look good for a few rounds and fade before getting stopped. Really can't see how he wins. Basically three weight divisions between them.