Property Market 2019

Cyrus · 14-11-2019 1:03pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

that's sales that were registered in October, anything that was registered after that will show in the November report

It takes a while before a sale is registered so what you see in October is the result of low sales from previous months

i posted the disclaimer from the autor of those charts to you last time,

all of octobers sales arent in there yet, it could be march before they are.

Assetbacked · 14-11-2019 1:06pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-price-growth-slows-to-just-1-1-as-increased-supply-cools-market-1.4082813?mode=amp

IT noting the pick up in home building is cooling the market. Considering this is the very beginning of completions with a flood of dwellings being needed, the likelihood is that there is forthcoming sustained property price decreases rather than continued slower increases solely from the completion of new builds. This is absolutely a positive thing as the global and Irish economy is booming.

The tone of the article is one which suggests slow price increases or even decreases are a terrible thing which is absurd considering the economy is so strong.

Graham · 14-11-2019 1:06pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

that's sales that were registered in October, anything that was registered after that will show in the November report

It takes a while before a sale is registered so what you see in October is the result of low sales from previous months

Something doesn't add up.

According to the graph there were 2,797 in October (updated 1st Nov)

Doing a search on propertypriceregister.ie for October returns 4,357 results.

Cyrus · 14-11-2019 1:08pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-price-growth-slows-to-just-1-1-as-increased-supply-cools-market-1.4082813?mode=amp

IT noting the pick up in home building is cooling the market. Considering this is the very beginning of completions with a flood of dwellings being needed, the likelihood is that there is forthcoming sustained property price decreases. The tone of the article is one which nearly suggests price decreases are a terrible thing!

they also reported that building has slowed, the developers arent going to build a load of new builds to sell at prices they cant make their margins on,

they will just constrict supply

Assetbacked · 14-11-2019 1:13pm

Cyrus wrote: »

they also reported that building has slowed, the developers arent going to build a load of new builds to sell at prices they cant make their margins on,

they will just constrict supply

It's not in the article about building being slowed. The price decreases are somewhat of an ancillary consequence to the main policy which should be to ensure a glut of affordable dwellings are built and put on the market. Lobby groups will use speculation to try to influence policy to artificially prop up the market via greater leverage by way of example. Industry should not be allowed have any influence on government policy again and talk of a slowdown in building most definitely must be taken with a pinch of salt.

mcbert · 14-11-2019 1:14pm

Graham wrote: »

Something doesn't add up.

According to the graph there were 2,797 in October (updated 1st Nov)

Doing a search on propertypriceregister.ie for October returns 4,357 results.

1st Nov was 2 weeks ago. Many registrations since then not in graph

Cyrus · 14-11-2019 1:15pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's not in the article about building being slowed. The price decreases are somewhat of an ancillary consequence to the main policy which should be to ensure a glut of affordable dwellings are built and put on the market. Lobby groups will use speculation to try to influence policy to artificially prop up the market via greater leverage by way of example. Industry should not be allowed have any influence on government policy again and talk of a slowdown in building most definitely must be taken with a pinch of salt.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housebuilding-in-dublin-stalls-amid-concern-over-affordability-1.4075676

Assetbacked · 14-11-2019 1:41pm

Cyrus wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housebuilding-in-dublin-stalls-amid-concern-over-affordability-1.4075676

As I thought, no common ground between the reports. As such, cries of a slowdown in building activity must be taken with a pinch of salt if it couples with calls to relax lending rules in particular.

"The Department of Housing insisted that activity in the construction sector remained healthy and that housing supply was increasing."

Mic 1972 · 14-11-2019 2:52pm

Sounds like builders are trying to spin the housing issue in their favor, hinting they might slow down supply because people aren't buying at their prices. Of course they would rather banks keep lending money!

14-11-2019 3:31pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

October has the lowest sales registered in years

These charts are a great response to all this 'wait for a recession' guff. Over 3x the properties selling this year compared to 2011. So you are vastly less likely to be able to buy in a recession.

And that huge dropoff in October this year has to be incomplete data.

Mic 1972 · 14-11-2019 4:20pm

Noah Scruffy Kale wrote: »

These charts are a great response to all this 'wait for a recession' guff. Over 3x the properties selling this year compared to 2011. So you are vastly less likely to be able to buy in a recession.

The higher volume may be due to supply finally catching up

Villa05 · 14-11-2019 5:49pm

lawred2 wrote:

Only those living and working in Dublin are looking to buy there so it's not really relevant what someone in North Kerry or West Donegal is earning.

im sure that was the same in 2007 as well

also the survey was done on a county by county level so they must be calculating Dublin affordability vis a vis Dublin incomes

14-11-2019 9:33pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The higher volume may be due to supply finally catching up

You reckon we were supply constrained back in 2011?

Villa05 · 14-11-2019 10:15pm

Noah Scruffy Kale wrote:

You reckon we were supply constrained back in 2011?

Another way of putting it is that we have run out of available buyers at current prices therefore price begin to fall to achieve a sale.

Mic 1972 · 14-11-2019 10:39pm

Noah Scruffy Kale wrote: »

You reckon we were supply constrained back in 2011?

we had recession and no jobs during the crash, we had no money :-)

riclad · 14-11-2019 10:58pm

If you think prices will fall after brexit goes into effect ,
why buy now.People are more cautious now,
prices might fall 10-20 per cent in 2020 , no one knows .
One thing we know is its unlikely prices will rise again for a few years.

Assetbacked · 14-11-2019 11:35pm

riclad wrote: »

If you think prices will fall after brexit goes into effect ,
why buy now.People are more cautious now,
prices might fall 10-20 per cent in 2020 , no one knows .
One thing we know is its unlikely prices will rise again for a few years.

If the Central Bank relaxed it's mortgage lending rules then people could buy in the short term but very quickly prices would rise beyond affordability again. If any relaxation of the rules were to be applied, I think the deposit rule should be scrapped for those who have evidence of paying rent at a certain level for a certain minimum period as it essentially serves the same purpose.

awec · 15-11-2019 12:15am

Assetbacked wrote: »

If the Central Bank relaxed it's mortgage lending rules then people could buy in the short term but very quickly prices would rise beyond affordability again. If any relaxation of the rules were to be applied, I think the deposit rule should be scrapped for those who have evidence of paying rent at a certain level for a certain minimum period as it essentially serves the same purpose.

The deposit rule is to try guard against negative equity to a certain degree. It shouldn't go anywhere.

Mad_maxx · 15-11-2019 10:14am

riclad wrote: »

If you think prices will fall after brexit goes into effect ,
why buy now.People are more cautious now,
prices might fall 10-20 per cent in 2020 , no one knows .
One thing we know is its unlikely prices will rise again for a few years.

It's often a good bet to buy due to some perceived external event, it could happen of course that brexit is a disaster but buying is always a risk regardless of the time

By the time the coast is clear however, prices have already gone up

super_furry · 15-11-2019 10:16am

Central bank rules doing exactly what they should be really. They took some much deserved stick for the recession but this has been a perfect example in taking a firm decision and sticking with it.

Cape Clear · 15-11-2019 10:22am

Mic 1972 wrote: »

we had recession and no jobs during the crash, we had no money :-)

It wasn't that black and white. Plenty of first time buyers bought during the recession those that were able to save and secure loan approval did quite well for themselves.

Padre_Pio · 15-11-2019 11:04am

riclad wrote: »

If you think prices will fall after brexit goes into effect ,
why buy now.People are more cautious now,
prices might fall 10-20 per cent in 2020 , no one knows .
One thing we know is its unlikely prices will rise again for a few years.

What will cause prices to fall?

Seems a price ceiling has been hit recently, prices may be coming down, but will we see something drastic like 10% in 12 months? I could be 3% per year for the next 5 years.

15-11-2019 11:09am

Padre_Pio wrote: »

What will cause prices to fall?

Seems a price ceiling has been hit recently, prices may be coming down, but will we see something drastic like 10% in 12 months? I could be 3% per year for the next 5 years.

we have had 5-10% in the last 3 months in some areas, so it is a possibility. 2 places i went to see in the last week were investment properties that the sellers were finally shifting as i assume they feel it has maxed out and time to sell.

Will be interesting to see if more of this kind of supply comes on over the next few months, although conversely with exemptions coming out in january it could push the prices back up or stabilise any small decrease in price from an increase in supply

mcbert · 15-11-2019 11:14am

19233974 wrote: »

although conversely with exemptions coming out in january it could push the prices back up or stabilise any small decrease in price from an increase in supply

I thought I heard exemptions were now being spread out through the year instead of all used up at start of year. So is that not true?

Mad_maxx · 15-11-2019 11:56am

Padre_Pio wrote: »

What will cause prices to fall?

Seems a price ceiling has been hit recently, prices may be coming down, but will we see something drastic like 10% in 12 months? I could be 3% per year for the next 5 years.

Actually a sharp 10% correction over the next year or so would be more likely than a five year descent which saw prices drop 15%

Obviously none of us know for sure

Personally I think we are at the beginning of the next leg up

Bigmac1euro · 15-11-2019 12:03pm

Ptsb still had exemptions 3 weeks ago.

15-11-2019 12:10pm

mcbert wrote: »

I thought I heard exemptions were now being spread out through the year instead of all used up at start of year. So is that not true?

I am waiting on one from BOI which wont come through until January, guess it depends on the bank

SozBbz · 15-11-2019 12:52pm

Cape Clear wrote: »

It wasn't that black and white. Plenty of first time buyers bought during the recession those that were able to save and secure loan approval did quite well for themselves.

Now thats also overly simplistic.

I had the money to buy back in 2012/13 but could not get a sale to close for the life of me. I went sale agreed 3 times, all unsuccessful on the sellers end because most people needed their banks permission to sell then.

Actual transaction volumes were very low in those years.

The Student · 15-11-2019 2:30pm

19233974 wrote: »

we have had 5-10% in the last 3 months in some areas, so it is a possibility. 2 places i went to see in the last week were investment properties that the sellers were finally shifting as i assume they feel it has maxed out and time to sell.

Will be interesting to see if more of this kind of supply comes on over the next few months, although conversely with exemptions coming out in january it could push the prices back up or stabilise any small decrease in price from an increase in supply

I suspect you will see more investors leaving the market to avail of the cgt exemptions and escape the onerous landlord/tenant legislation.

You will see higher decreases in high value properties but I can't see huge if any drops in standard 3 bed semi's. (Obviously there will be exceptions but not many).

We need supply to increase I think everybody agrees with this. We need a multi faceted approach

1 Balance landlord and tenants rights (quicker dispute resolutions and quicker evictions for non payment of rent)

2 Tax breaks for tenants. Ironically if tenants actually got a tax break they could save for a deposit for their own property.

3 Encourage landlords to stay in the market. A typical three bed rented property could house 4 adults, if it is sold to an owner occupier typically it would be either a couple or a single person either way the number of bed spaces in the rental sector will decrease.

The Central bank rules are keeping a lid on prices and should not be touched.

riclad · 15-11-2019 3:12pm

When price,s fall people tend to wait longer to buy a house,
as i said before no one knows exactly what effect brexit will have on the economy,
Will it slow down tourism from the uk,
will it reduce imports from the uk , will the uk go into a recession.
There will be more taxs and dutys on goods going to the uk.
It will be more expensive to send goods to the uk .
There will have to be some form of customs checks between ireland and the uk.
maybe it will be a year before we even know the full effects of brexit.We have
good rules in regard to lending set by the central bank ,i see no reason to change them,
they protect the tax payer from the boom and bust cycle we saw in the celtic tiger era.
Maybe we need more tax breaks , to attract new landlords into the market,
maybe extra tax credit if you rent a 1 bed apartment to a single person on low income, or a 2 bed apartment to some one on welfare .
Like a single mother .

Cape Clear · 15-11-2019 3:15pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Now thats also overly simplistic.

I had the money to buy back in 2012/13 but could not get a sale to close for the life of me. I went sale agreed 3 times, all unsuccessful on the sellers end because most people needed their banks permission to sell then.

Actual transaction volumes were very low in those years.

Not overly simplistic at all. Your experience doesn't disprove what I posted. There was plenty of property on the market that didn't come with such baggage. It is generally accepted that property began increasing in value from the second half of 2013 onwards.

Bluefoam · 15-11-2019 3:44pm

Cape Clear wrote: »

Not overly simplistic at all. Your experience doesn't disprove what I posted. There was plenty of property on the market that didn't come with such baggage. It is generally accepted that property began increasing in value from the second half of 2013 onwards.

Value is relative...

In the recession plenty of investors offloaded second third and fourth properties. These were often less than cared for and in disrepair. The sold for very little but needed allot of work to bring them up to living standard. There were also lots of good properties, but the former effected the overall percieved valuie of property.

SozBbz · 15-11-2019 3:55pm

Cape Clear wrote: »

Not overly simplistic at all. Your experience doesn't disprove what I posted. There was plenty of property on the market that didn't come with such baggage. It is generally accepted that property began increasing in value from the second half of 2013 onwards.

Yes I am aware that its just my experience. But I don't believe the banks were just being awkward only in cases that involved me. I must have viewed north of 50 properties back then and bid on maybe 10-12, and from talking to agents it was a common issue. Bank involvement was common. The exceptions were executor sales and they were typically in need of massive renovations which as a single buyer, I didnt have the appetite for.

I know that property prices started to rise in 2013 but that was off a low base and says nothing as to the volumes of sales going through, which was still low. My point is that its fine to say that those who have the finances will be fine in recessionary conditions, but my experience contradicts that, showing that just having the finances in place isnt always enough. Its hard to buy in those chaotic conditions for lots of reasons, and finance is only one of them.

Nothing you've posted proves what you're asserting. Its just opinion.

Mic 1972 · 15-11-2019 3:59pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Now thats also overly simplistic.

I had the money to buy back in 2012/13 but could not get a sale to close for the life of me. I went sale agreed 3 times, all unsuccessful on the sellers end because most people needed their banks permission to sell then.

Actual transaction volumes were very low in those years.

Same here, went sale agreed 3 times. first time end of 2012, final successful one went ahead early 2014. The bottom of the crash was a funny time to buy

Cape Clear · 15-11-2019 5:14pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Yes I am aware that its just my experience. But I don't believe the banks were just being awkward only in cases that involved me. I must have viewed north of 50 properties back then and bid on maybe 10-12, and from talking to agents it was a common issue. Bank involvement was common. The exceptions were executor sales and they were typically in need of massive renovations which as a single buyer, I didnt have the appetite for.

I know that property prices started to rise in 2013 but that was off a low base and says nothing as to the volumes of sales going through, which was still low. My point is that its fine to say that those who have the finances will be fine in recessionary conditions, but my experience contradicts that, showing that just having the finances in place isnt always enough. Its hard to buy in those chaotic conditions for lots of reasons, and finance is only one of them.

Nothing you've posted proves what you're asserting. Its just opinion.

Maybe you were engaging with the wrong type of vendor or need to read my original post again. Your experience does not disprove what I have posted.

SozBbz · 15-11-2019 5:34pm

Cape Clear wrote: »

Maybe you were engaging with the wrong type of vendor or need to read my original post again. Your experience does not disprove what I have posted.

For the record, you said this.

Cape Clear wrote: »

It wasn't that black and white. Plenty of first time buyers bought during the recession those that were able to save and secure loan approval did quite well for themselves.

I had savings and loan approval. That did not equate to a purchase.

What I said was that your post was simplistic. Having the money in itself isnt enough. In a downturn there are other factors at play, a fact your original post does not recognise whatsoever.

I never said that some people didn't do well, I'm sure they did, but what I actually said was that there were plenty of people out there who had the funds but couldnt make it work for a variety of reasons. As in, real life is more nuanced than you seem to think. Its not as simple as "have money = house". When prices fall dramatically, lots of forces come into play, such as limited stock, and no more new builds combined with negative equity and bank interference.

As to me engaging with the wrong type of seller? Silly me, I should have avoided those vendors who listed themselves as troublesome on myhome.ie :rolleyes: FWIW its worth, my 3 sale agreed were with Sherry Fitz, DNG and Savills respectively, professionals who all ended up having their time wasted also.

What an inane thing to say.

Cape Clear · 15-11-2019 5:42pm

SozBbz wrote: »

For the record, you said this.

I had savings and loan approval. That did not equate to a purchase.

What I said was that your post was simplistic. Having the money in itself isnt enough. In a downturn there are other factors at play, a fact your original post does not recognise whatsoever.

I never said that some people didn't do well, I'm sure they did, but what I actually said was that there were plenty of people out there who had the funds but couldnt make it work for a variety of reasons. As in, real life is more nuanced than you seem to think. Its not as simple as "have money = house". When prices fall dramatically, lots of forces come into play, such as limited stock, and no more new builds combined with negative equity and bank interference.

As to me engaging with the wrong type of seller? Silly me, I should have avoided those vendors who listed themselves as troublesome on myhome.ie :rolleyes: FWIW its worth, my 3 sale agreed were with Sherry Fitz, DNG and Savills respectively, professionals who all ended up having their time wasted also.

What an inane thing to say.

I'll just leave this here for you.

A contract for the sale of real property is executed when the vendor and the purchaser sign an agreement in which the vendor promises to convey ownership of the property to the purchaser, who promises to pay an agreed sum.

JohnnyChimpo · 15-11-2019 5:47pm

Cape Clear wrote: »

I'll just leave this here for you.

A contract for the sale of real property is executed when the vendor and the purchaser sign an agreement in which the vendor promises to convey ownership of the property to the purchaser, who promises to pay an agreed sum.

:rolleyes:

SozBbz · 15-11-2019 5:50pm

Cape Clear wrote: »

I'll just leave this here for you.

A contract for the sale of real property is executed when the vendor and the purchaser sign an agreement in which the vendor promises to convey ownership of the property to the purchaser, who promises to pay an agreed sum.

The word "floundering" comes to mind...

I now own two properties so I happen to know what a contract for sale is, but thanks for posting random definitions into a discussion thread - you're a great asset to this discussion :rolleyes:

Whatever, I'm not wasting my time on someone who can't accept someone pointing out that theres more to a given scenario than meets the eye. You're clearly hellbent on being stubborn, no matter how nonsensicle your posts become. I'm not going around in circles with you as you clearly don't get it.

Mad_maxx · 15-11-2019 6:35pm

Cape Clear wrote: »

Not overly simplistic at all. Your experience doesn't disprove what I posted. There was plenty of property on the market that didn't come with such baggage. It is generally accepted that property began increasing in value from the second half of 2013 onwards.

Property bottomed in most of Dublin in late spring of 2012, nationally it may have been the following year on average

Recorded statistics are in truth usually slightly out of date figures relative to what's happening on the ground, if a house goes sale agreed today, probably won't appear on PPR for six months

TheSheriff · 15-11-2019 6:45pm

19233974 wrote: »

I am waiting on one from BOI which wont come through until January, guess it depends on the bank

We were offered one with BOI last week?.....

18-11-2019 4:56pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

We were offered one with BOI last week?.....

Just got an email today saying approved for exemption! had been previously told january

cruizer101 · 18-11-2019 5:51pm

Quick comparison of link above (https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/) with data from 1st of Nov and current ppr (13th Nov last updated).
So you can see there is a delay in the numbers going up on ppr, some sales aren't registered for months.
From that I would say by 1st of Dec you could have fair idea of the October figures.
But even from current I think it is reasonably comparable with last year and shows no significant drop.

19-11-2019 10:02am

So its all a bit of scare mongering by the vested interests involved! I really hope the central bank hold steady on the lending rules

19-11-2019 11:17am

Any estate agents on here, does there generally be an influx of properties onto the market in jan/ feb?

bullpost · 19-11-2019 11:21am

19233974 wrote: »

Any estate agents on here, does there generally be an influx of properties onto the market in jan/ feb?

Always wondered about this. I would guess from a sellers perspective , you want the house looking its best , so Spring/Summertime is best.

However from a buyers perspective, Its probably best to see a house in middle of winter , when its easier to spot problems with insulation, heating etc.

heebusjeebus · 19-11-2019 11:26am

19233974 wrote: »

Any estate agents on here, does there generally be an influx of properties onto the market in jan/ feb?

September and then January/Feb are the busy times for getting properties up for sale.

alias no.9 · 21-11-2019 12:27am

Cape Clear wrote: »

Not overly simplistic at all. Your experience doesn't disprove what I posted. There was plenty of property on the market that didn't come with such baggage. It is generally accepted that property began increasing in value from the second half of 2013 onwards.

There were very little turnkey properties on the market back then. Most were executor sales and distressed sales of tired ex rentals. We did buy i 2013 but ended up gutting a house that was only 20 years old at the time but fell into the latter category.

22-11-2019 12:29pm

Approx. 12 months ago I bid on a house in Drumcondra, it was a nice place but felt it was overpriced for a few reasons. Location was good but not great, no parking, poor access to the back, wasn't far from the train line so you'd probably hear trains. There wasn't much interest in it, had been on the market for ages, so we went in at 15k below asking but we thought a very fair offer for the house. We didn't hear back so offer was obviously rejected by the vendor. We weren't willing to go above that.

I drove past it earlier and it still has the for-sale sign out the front, so had a look on Daft. They've dropped the asking by 30k. The bid we made was 15k above the current asking price. So having overpriced it, I'm guessing on the advice of the EA, they got unrealistic expectations and turned us down. They'd have had the sale closed 9 months ago with an extra 15k in in their pocket if they'd taken our bid. Funny how these things go.

OwlsZat · 22-11-2019 1:54pm

I recently had two cold calls from EA's asking was i still interested in property, neither of which I ever bid on. Just inquired. Things have slowed but the cost of land / labor and materials is still so high that asking prices are slow to fall. Also some developments are also still be snapped up so it's not across the board. I still feel Government are going to have to reduce the cost of building (and houses) to solve the housing crisis.

Property Market 2019

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