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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Cape Clear

SozBbz wrote: »

Now thats also overly simplistic.

I had the money to buy back in 2012/13 but could not get a sale to close for the life of me. I went sale agreed 3 times, all unsuccessful on the sellers end because most people needed their banks permission to sell then.

Actual transaction volumes were very low in those years.

Not overly simplistic at all. Your experience doesn't disprove what I posted. There was plenty of property on the market that didn't come with such baggage. It is generally accepted that property began increasing in value from the second half of 2013 onwards.

Bluefoam

Cape Clear wrote: »

Not overly simplistic at all. Your experience doesn't disprove what I posted. There was plenty of property on the market that didn't come with such baggage. It is generally accepted that property began increasing in value from the second half of 2013 onwards.

Value is relative...

In the recession plenty of investors offloaded second third and fourth properties. These were often less than cared for and in disrepair. The sold for very little but needed allot of work to bring them up to living standard. There were also lots of good properties, but the former effected the overall percieved valuie of property.

SozBbz

Cape Clear wrote: »

Not overly simplistic at all. Your experience doesn't disprove what I posted. There was plenty of property on the market that didn't come with such baggage. It is generally accepted that property began increasing in value from the second half of 2013 onwards.

Yes I am aware that its just my experience. But I don't believe the banks were just being awkward only in cases that involved me. I must have viewed north of 50 properties back then and bid on maybe 10-12, and from talking to agents it was a common issue. Bank involvement was common. The exceptions were executor sales and they were typically in need of massive renovations which as a single buyer, I didnt have the appetite for.

I know that property prices started to rise in 2013 but that was off a low base and says nothing as to the volumes of sales going through, which was still low. My point is that its fine to say that those who have the finances will be fine in recessionary conditions, but my experience contradicts that, showing that just having the finances in place isnt always enough. Its hard to buy in those chaotic conditions for lots of reasons, and finance is only one of them.

Nothing you've posted proves what you're asserting. Its just opinion.

Mic 1972

SozBbz wrote: »

Now thats also overly simplistic.

I had the money to buy back in 2012/13 but could not get a sale to close for the life of me. I went sale agreed 3 times, all unsuccessful on the sellers end because most people needed their banks permission to sell then.

Actual transaction volumes were very low in those years.

Same here, went sale agreed 3 times. first time end of 2012, final successful one went ahead early 2014. The bottom of the crash was a funny time to buy

Cape Clear

SozBbz wrote: »

Yes I am aware that its just my experience. But I don't believe the banks were just being awkward only in cases that involved me. I must have viewed north of 50 properties back then and bid on maybe 10-12, and from talking to agents it was a common issue. Bank involvement was common. The exceptions were executor sales and they were typically in need of massive renovations which as a single buyer, I didnt have the appetite for.

I know that property prices started to rise in 2013 but that was off a low base and says nothing as to the volumes of sales going through, which was still low. My point is that its fine to say that those who have the finances will be fine in recessionary conditions, but my experience contradicts that, showing that just having the finances in place isnt always enough. Its hard to buy in those chaotic conditions for lots of reasons, and finance is only one of them.

Nothing you've posted proves what you're asserting. Its just opinion.

Maybe you were engaging with the wrong type of vendor or need to read my original post again. Your experience does not disprove what I have posted.

SozBbz

Cape Clear wrote: »

Maybe you were engaging with the wrong type of vendor or need to read my original post again. Your experience does not disprove what I have posted.

For the record, you said this.

Cape Clear wrote: »

It wasn't that black and white. Plenty of first time buyers bought during the recession those that were able to save and secure loan approval did quite well for themselves.

I had savings and loan approval. That did not equate to a purchase.

What I said was that your post was simplistic. Having the money in itself isnt enough. In a downturn there are other factors at play, a fact your original post does not recognise whatsoever.

I never said that some people didn't do well, I'm sure they did, but what I actually said was that there were plenty of people out there who had the funds but couldnt make it work for a variety of reasons. As in, real life is more nuanced than you seem to think. Its not as simple as "have money = house". When prices fall dramatically, lots of forces come into play, such as limited stock, and no more new builds combined with negative equity and bank interference.

As to me engaging with the wrong type of seller? Silly me, I should have avoided those vendors who listed themselves as troublesome on myhome.ie :rolleyes: FWIW its worth, my 3 sale agreed were with Sherry Fitz, DNG and Savills respectively, professionals who all ended up having their time wasted also.

What an inane thing to say.

Cape Clear

SozBbz wrote: »

For the record, you said this.

I had savings and loan approval. That did not equate to a purchase.

What I said was that your post was simplistic. Having the money in itself isnt enough. In a downturn there are other factors at play, a fact your original post does not recognise whatsoever.

I never said that some people didn't do well, I'm sure they did, but what I actually said was that there were plenty of people out there who had the funds but couldnt make it work for a variety of reasons. As in, real life is more nuanced than you seem to think. Its not as simple as "have money = house". When prices fall dramatically, lots of forces come into play, such as limited stock, and no more new builds combined with negative equity and bank interference.

As to me engaging with the wrong type of seller? Silly me, I should have avoided those vendors who listed themselves as troublesome on myhome.ie :rolleyes: FWIW its worth, my 3 sale agreed were with Sherry Fitz, DNG and Savills respectively, professionals who all ended up having their time wasted also.

What an inane thing to say.

I'll just leave this here for you.

A contract for the sale of real property is executed when the vendor and the purchaser sign an agreement in which the vendor promises to convey ownership of the property to the purchaser, who promises to pay an agreed sum.

JohnnyChimpo

Cape Clear wrote: »

I'll just leave this here for you.

A contract for the sale of real property is executed when the vendor and the purchaser sign an agreement in which the vendor promises to convey ownership of the property to the purchaser, who promises to pay an agreed sum.

:rolleyes:

SozBbz

Cape Clear wrote: »

I'll just leave this here for you.

A contract for the sale of real property is executed when the vendor and the purchaser sign an agreement in which the vendor promises to convey ownership of the property to the purchaser, who promises to pay an agreed sum.

The word "floundering" comes to mind...

I now own two properties so I happen to know what a contract for sale is, but thanks for posting random definitions into a discussion thread - you're a great asset to this discussion :rolleyes:

Whatever, I'm not wasting my time on someone who can't accept someone pointing out that theres more to a given scenario than meets the eye. You're clearly hellbent on being stubborn, no matter how nonsensicle your posts become. I'm not going around in circles with you as you clearly don't get it.

Mad_maxx

Cape Clear wrote: »

Not overly simplistic at all. Your experience doesn't disprove what I posted. There was plenty of property on the market that didn't come with such baggage. It is generally accepted that property began increasing in value from the second half of 2013 onwards.

Property bottomed in most of Dublin in late spring of 2012, nationally it may have been the following year on average

Recorded statistics are in truth usually slightly out of date figures relative to what's happening on the ground, if a house goes sale agreed today, probably won't appear on PPR for six months

TheSheriff

19233974 wrote: »

I am waiting on one from BOI which wont come through until January, guess it depends on the bank

We were offered one with BOI last week?.....

19233974

TheSheriff wrote: »

We were offered one with BOI last week?.....

Just got an email today saying approved for exemption! had been previously told january

cruizer101

Quick comparison of link above (https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/) with data from 1st of Nov and current ppr (13th Nov last updated).
So you can see there is a delay in the numbers going up on ppr, some sales aren't registered for months.
From that I would say by 1st of Dec you could have fair idea of the October figures.
But even from current I think it is reasonably comparable with last year and shows no significant drop.

19233974

So its all a bit of scare mongering by the vested interests involved! I really hope the central bank hold steady on the lending rules

19233974

Any estate agents on here, does there generally be an influx of properties onto the market in jan/ feb?

bullpost

19233974 wrote: »

Any estate agents on here, does there generally be an influx of properties onto the market in jan/ feb?

Always wondered about this. I would guess from a sellers perspective , you want the house looking its best , so Spring/Summertime is best.

However from a buyers perspective, Its probably best to see a house in middle of winter , when its easier to spot problems with insulation, heating etc.

heebusjeebus

19233974 wrote: »

Any estate agents on here, does there generally be an influx of properties onto the market in jan/ feb?

September and then January/Feb are the busy times for getting properties up for sale.

alias no.9

Cape Clear wrote: »

Not overly simplistic at all. Your experience doesn't disprove what I posted. There was plenty of property on the market that didn't come with such baggage. It is generally accepted that property began increasing in value from the second half of 2013 onwards.

There were very little turnkey properties on the market back then. Most were executor sales and distressed sales of tired ex rentals. We did buy i 2013 but ended up gutting a house that was only 20 years old at the time but fell into the latter category.

[Deleted User]

Approx. 12 months ago I bid on a house in Drumcondra, it was a nice place but felt it was overpriced for a few reasons. Location was good but not great, no parking, poor access to the back, wasn't far from the train line so you'd probably hear trains. There wasn't much interest in it, had been on the market for ages, so we went in at 15k below asking but we thought a very fair offer for the house. We didn't hear back so offer was obviously rejected by the vendor. We weren't willing to go above that.

I drove past it earlier and it still has the for-sale sign out the front, so had a look on Daft. They've dropped the asking by 30k. The bid we made was 15k above the current asking price. So having overpriced it, I'm guessing on the advice of the EA, they got unrealistic expectations and turned us down. They'd have had the sale closed 9 months ago with an extra 15k in in their pocket if they'd taken our bid. Funny how these things go.

OwlsZat

I recently had two cold calls from EA's asking was i still interested in property, neither of which I ever bid on. Just inquired. Things have slowed but the cost of land / labor and materials is still so high that asking prices are slow to fall. Also some developments are also still be snapped up so it's not across the board. I still feel Government are going to have to reduce the cost of building (and houses) to solve the housing crisis.

Brussels Sprout

David McWilliams talks about housing and housing construction in his podcast this week. Some interesting points:

Cement is twice the price in Ireland than it is in England due to an effective cartel operating here
The number of 40 year-olds designated as single has nearly tripled since 1981 from ~15% -> ~40% but the types of accommodation on offer have not changed as a result of this
We'd need to build 400 apartments a week for the next 50 years to plug the gap required in cities

Bladeserver

Recently started looking at Houses (first time buyer) in north county Dublin.

Some observations!!

1. Prices have stalled on less favourable accommodation do-er uppers! People seem to be looking for close to move in. I've seen 2-3 bidding wars on these type of dwellings. The energy rating seems to drive this behaviour also. Less spending on upgrading etc.

2. Older housing - I see this area as the gift and the curse. Yes, house prices are dropping slightly but there is also a huge cost involved on getting these houses remotely modern. IE I've seen 400k 1970's basic estate houses going for 400K but most likely need 100K to get them in any way decent. Can many first time buyers take these on?

3. People are staying put! Where we are looking there has been one new house added in two weeks to the area. What I think from this is that people are holding out to gauge the market with Brexit and housing supply growing (or they assume is growing).

Feel free to agree/disagree.

riclad

If you want to buy a house near the city center ,you,ll have to buy a house at least 20-30 years old .
Builders only build office,s ,hotels, or apartments near the city centre .
It doe,s not make sense for a builder to buy a site in the city centre
and build a 3 bed house on it.
They are only only building new house,s maybe 30 minutes outside the city centre .
Buy a new house now,in an estate and 20 per cent plus of the house,s will be bought
by dublin city council.
In the new development in deveny gardens dublin,
each unit will cost around 400k plus.
The builder got the site for nothing.
I presume dublin city council will buy some of the propertys built there .

Bladeserver

Not looking in the city centre. North county Dublin.

Samuel T. Cogley

Bladeserver wrote: »

Feel free to agree/disagree.

I will do neither! :pac:

[Deleted User]

I think the central bank are going to raise the borrowing limit from 3.5 times earnings to 4 times earnings.

I hope they don't but reading reports I think they will bring in some changes on 4th December.

The_Conductor

Deleted User wrote: »

I think the central bank are going to raise the borrowing limit from 3.5 times earnings to 4 times earnings.

I hope they don't but reading reports I think they will bring in some changes on 4th December.

The world and its dog are getting exemptions these days- the net effect of doing something like this will mean nothing whatsoever other than in the lower and middle segments of the market- where any increase in borrowing capacity will simply be incremented onto asking prices.

The bigger expectation is that the rules around deposit requirements for subsequent buyers will be looked at- rather than counter productive tinkering with lending multiples. Bringing the deposit requirement for subsequent buyers (other than investors) to 10% is arguably far more necessary in the current climate- than any other single action.

[Deleted User]

I don't think we need house prices rising further. Any changes will likely lead to price rises.

Kamili

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think the central bank are going to raise the borrowing limit from 3.5 times earnings to 4 times earnings.

I hope they don't but reading reports I think they will bring in some changes on 4th December.

Have you a source for this or is it just a hunch?

I think it's a bad move if they do this.

Zenify

So the central bank should give people more money and less deposits to stimulate the property market? Does anybody else not see a problem with this?