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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

that's sales that were registered in October, anything that was registered after that will show in the November report

It takes a while before a sale is registered so what you see in October is the result of low sales from previous months

i posted the disclaimer from the autor of those charts to you last time,

all of octobers sales arent in there yet, it could be march before they are.

Assetbacked

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-price-growth-slows-to-just-1-1-as-increased-supply-cools-market-1.4082813?mode=amp

IT noting the pick up in home building is cooling the market. Considering this is the very beginning of completions with a flood of dwellings being needed, the likelihood is that there is forthcoming sustained property price decreases rather than continued slower increases solely from the completion of new builds. This is absolutely a positive thing as the global and Irish economy is booming.

The tone of the article is one which suggests slow price increases or even decreases are a terrible thing which is absurd considering the economy is so strong.

Graham

Mic 1972 wrote: »

that's sales that were registered in October, anything that was registered after that will show in the November report

It takes a while before a sale is registered so what you see in October is the result of low sales from previous months

Something doesn't add up.

According to the graph there were 2,797 in October (updated 1st Nov)

Doing a search on propertypriceregister.ie for October returns 4,357 results.

Cyrus

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-price-growth-slows-to-just-1-1-as-increased-supply-cools-market-1.4082813?mode=amp

IT noting the pick up in home building is cooling the market. Considering this is the very beginning of completions with a flood of dwellings being needed, the likelihood is that there is forthcoming sustained property price decreases. The tone of the article is one which nearly suggests price decreases are a terrible thing!

they also reported that building has slowed, the developers arent going to build a load of new builds to sell at prices they cant make their margins on,

they will just constrict supply

Assetbacked

Cyrus wrote: »

they also reported that building has slowed, the developers arent going to build a load of new builds to sell at prices they cant make their margins on,

they will just constrict supply

It's not in the article about building being slowed. The price decreases are somewhat of an ancillary consequence to the main policy which should be to ensure a glut of affordable dwellings are built and put on the market. Lobby groups will use speculation to try to influence policy to artificially prop up the market via greater leverage by way of example. Industry should not be allowed have any influence on government policy again and talk of a slowdown in building most definitely must be taken with a pinch of salt.

mcbert

Graham wrote: »

Something doesn't add up.

According to the graph there were 2,797 in October (updated 1st Nov)

Doing a search on propertypriceregister.ie for October returns 4,357 results.

1st Nov was 2 weeks ago. Many registrations since then not in graph

Cyrus

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's not in the article about building being slowed. The price decreases are somewhat of an ancillary consequence to the main policy which should be to ensure a glut of affordable dwellings are built and put on the market. Lobby groups will use speculation to try to influence policy to artificially prop up the market via greater leverage by way of example. Industry should not be allowed have any influence on government policy again and talk of a slowdown in building most definitely must be taken with a pinch of salt.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housebuilding-in-dublin-stalls-amid-concern-over-affordability-1.4075676

Assetbacked

Cyrus wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housebuilding-in-dublin-stalls-amid-concern-over-affordability-1.4075676

As I thought, no common ground between the reports. As such, cries of a slowdown in building activity must be taken with a pinch of salt if it couples with calls to relax lending rules in particular.

"The Department of Housing insisted that activity in the construction sector remained healthy and that housing supply was increasing."

Mic 1972

Sounds like builders are trying to spin the housing issue in their favor, hinting they might slow down supply because people aren't buying at their prices. Of course they would rather banks keep lending money!

[Deleted User]

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

October has the lowest sales registered in years

These charts are a great response to all this 'wait for a recession' guff. Over 3x the properties selling this year compared to 2011. So you are vastly less likely to be able to buy in a recession.

And that huge dropoff in October this year has to be incomplete data.

Mic 1972

Interested Observer wrote: »

These charts are a great response to all this 'wait for a recession' guff. Over 3x the properties selling this year compared to 2011. So you are vastly less likely to be able to buy in a recession.

The higher volume may be due to supply finally catching up

Villa05

lawred2 wrote:

Only those living and working in Dublin are looking to buy there so it's not really relevant what someone in North Kerry or West Donegal is earning.

im sure that was the same in 2007 as well

also the survey was done on a county by county level so they must be calculating Dublin affordability vis a vis Dublin incomes

[Deleted User]

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The higher volume may be due to supply finally catching up

You reckon we were supply constrained back in 2011?

Villa05

Interested Observer wrote:

You reckon we were supply constrained back in 2011?

Another way of putting it is that we have run out of available buyers at current prices therefore price begin to fall to achieve a sale.

Mic 1972

Interested Observer wrote: »

You reckon we were supply constrained back in 2011?

we had recession and no jobs during the crash, we had no money :-)

riclad

If you think prices will fall after brexit goes into effect ,
why buy now.People are more cautious now,
prices might fall 10-20 per cent in 2020 , no one knows .
One thing we know is its unlikely prices will rise again for a few years.

Assetbacked

riclad wrote: »

If you think prices will fall after brexit goes into effect ,
why buy now.People are more cautious now,
prices might fall 10-20 per cent in 2020 , no one knows .
One thing we know is its unlikely prices will rise again for a few years.

If the Central Bank relaxed it's mortgage lending rules then people could buy in the short term but very quickly prices would rise beyond affordability again. If any relaxation of the rules were to be applied, I think the deposit rule should be scrapped for those who have evidence of paying rent at a certain level for a certain minimum period as it essentially serves the same purpose.

awec

Assetbacked wrote: »

If the Central Bank relaxed it's mortgage lending rules then people could buy in the short term but very quickly prices would rise beyond affordability again. If any relaxation of the rules were to be applied, I think the deposit rule should be scrapped for those who have evidence of paying rent at a certain level for a certain minimum period as it essentially serves the same purpose.

The deposit rule is to try guard against negative equity to a certain degree. It shouldn't go anywhere.

Mad_maxx

riclad wrote: »

If you think prices will fall after brexit goes into effect ,
why buy now.People are more cautious now,
prices might fall 10-20 per cent in 2020 , no one knows .
One thing we know is its unlikely prices will rise again for a few years.

It's often a good bet to buy due to some perceived external event, it could happen of course that brexit is a disaster but buying is always a risk regardless of the time

By the time the coast is clear however, prices have already gone up

super_furry

Central bank rules doing exactly what they should be really. They took some much deserved stick for the recession but this has been a perfect example in taking a firm decision and sticking with it.

Cape Clear

Mic 1972 wrote: »

we had recession and no jobs during the crash, we had no money :-)

It wasn't that black and white. Plenty of first time buyers bought during the recession those that were able to save and secure loan approval did quite well for themselves.

Padre_Pio

riclad wrote: »

If you think prices will fall after brexit goes into effect ,
why buy now.People are more cautious now,
prices might fall 10-20 per cent in 2020 , no one knows .
One thing we know is its unlikely prices will rise again for a few years.

What will cause prices to fall?

Seems a price ceiling has been hit recently, prices may be coming down, but will we see something drastic like 10% in 12 months? I could be 3% per year for the next 5 years.

19233974

Padre_Pio wrote: »

What will cause prices to fall?

Seems a price ceiling has been hit recently, prices may be coming down, but will we see something drastic like 10% in 12 months? I could be 3% per year for the next 5 years.

we have had 5-10% in the last 3 months in some areas, so it is a possibility. 2 places i went to see in the last week were investment properties that the sellers were finally shifting as i assume they feel it has maxed out and time to sell.

Will be interesting to see if more of this kind of supply comes on over the next few months, although conversely with exemptions coming out in january it could push the prices back up or stabilise any small decrease in price from an increase in supply

mcbert

19233974 wrote: »

although conversely with exemptions coming out in january it could push the prices back up or stabilise any small decrease in price from an increase in supply

I thought I heard exemptions were now being spread out through the year instead of all used up at start of year. So is that not true?

Mad_maxx

Padre_Pio wrote: »

What will cause prices to fall?

Seems a price ceiling has been hit recently, prices may be coming down, but will we see something drastic like 10% in 12 months? I could be 3% per year for the next 5 years.

Actually a sharp 10% correction over the next year or so would be more likely than a five year descent which saw prices drop 15%

Obviously none of us know for sure

Personally I think we are at the beginning of the next leg up

Bigmac1euro

Ptsb still had exemptions 3 weeks ago.

19233974

mcbert wrote: »

I thought I heard exemptions were now being spread out through the year instead of all used up at start of year. So is that not true?

I am waiting on one from BOI which wont come through until January, guess it depends on the bank

SozBbz

Cape Clear wrote: »

It wasn't that black and white. Plenty of first time buyers bought during the recession those that were able to save and secure loan approval did quite well for themselves.

Now thats also overly simplistic.

I had the money to buy back in 2012/13 but could not get a sale to close for the life of me. I went sale agreed 3 times, all unsuccessful on the sellers end because most people needed their banks permission to sell then.

Actual transaction volumes were very low in those years.

The Student

19233974 wrote: »

we have had 5-10% in the last 3 months in some areas, so it is a possibility. 2 places i went to see in the last week were investment properties that the sellers were finally shifting as i assume they feel it has maxed out and time to sell.

Will be interesting to see if more of this kind of supply comes on over the next few months, although conversely with exemptions coming out in january it could push the prices back up or stabilise any small decrease in price from an increase in supply

I suspect you will see more investors leaving the market to avail of the cgt exemptions and escape the onerous landlord/tenant legislation.

You will see higher decreases in high value properties but I can't see huge if any drops in standard 3 bed semi's. (Obviously there will be exceptions but not many).

We need supply to increase I think everybody agrees with this. We need a multi faceted approach

1 Balance landlord and tenants rights (quicker dispute resolutions and quicker evictions for non payment of rent)

2 Tax breaks for tenants. Ironically if tenants actually got a tax break they could save for a deposit for their own property.

3 Encourage landlords to stay in the market. A typical three bed rented property could house 4 adults, if it is sold to an owner occupier typically it would be either a couple or a single person either way the number of bed spaces in the rental sector will decrease.

The Central bank rules are keeping a lid on prices and should not be touched.

riclad

When price,s fall people tend to wait longer to buy a house,
as i said before no one knows exactly what effect brexit will have on the economy,
Will it slow down tourism from the uk,
will it reduce imports from the uk , will the uk go into a recession.
There will be more taxs and dutys on goods going to the uk.
It will be more expensive to send goods to the uk .
There will have to be some form of customs checks between ireland and the uk.
maybe it will be a year before we even know the full effects of brexit.We have
good rules in regard to lending set by the central bank ,i see no reason to change them,
they protect the tax payer from the boom and bust cycle we saw in the celtic tiger era.
Maybe we need more tax breaks , to attract new landlords into the market,
maybe extra tax credit if you rent a 1 bed apartment to a single person on low income, or a 2 bed apartment to some one on welfare .
Like a single mother .