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UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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    #2792
    martyos121
    Registered Users Posts: 21,349 ✭✭✭✭martyos121


    If you are all betting on Diaz, don't go near Diaz by finish, go for Diaz by sub because it's better odds and there isn't a hope he's knocking Johnson out. The Menace has never been knocked out but he's tapped 6 times, and Diaz has only won four times by KO/TKO, and has 14 wins by submission. He won't out point him either, IMO.

    I'll still be betting on Johnson though.


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    #2793
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    martyos121 wrote: »
    If you are all betting on Diaz, don't go near Diaz by finish, go for Diaz by sub because it's better odds and there isn't a hope he's knocking Johnson out. The Menace has never been knocked out but he's tapped 6 times, and Diaz has only won four times by KO/TKO, and has 14 wins by submission. He won't out point him either, IMO.

    I'll still be betting on Johnson though.

    A sub counts as a finish btw , it's 15/2 for Diaz to win by KO, TKO, DQ or Sub, with 365 or 7/1 for him to just win by Sub on PP... So it's a no brainer to back him by finish.


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    #2794
    martyos121
    Registered Users Posts: 21,349 ✭✭✭✭martyos121


    ASOT wrote: »
    A sub counts as a finish btw , it's 15/2 for Diaz to win by KO, TKO, DQ or Sub, with 365 or 7/1 for him to just win by Sub on PP... So it's a no brainer to back him by finish.

    I know it counts as a finish, I was just saying that wouldn't people be better off going for slightly longer odds on the sub since it's almost certain Johnson won't be knocked out? (He has a great chin, and Diaz isn't overly special in the standup department, but he's lethal on the ground).

    None of this will matter when The Menace wins though. :)

    Those prices are obviously a mistake though since it makes no sense, that's what makes it a no-brainer. I'm sure there's better odds out there on Diaz by sub than 7's. If not, ignore what I said.


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    #2795
    Gamebred
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,269 ✭✭✭Gamebred


    RDA is becoming a backable price can see him drift big time tomorrow if the money continues on cowboy,



    Overeem looks awful skinny everyone going JDS k.o here?


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    #2796
    CurryFlavoured
    Registered Users Posts: 2,590 ✭✭✭CurryFlavoured


    Some thoughts - not sure why Alers is favorite over Miller but I haven't seen him fight. I think Castillo has value he's shortening though. This N'Gannou fella is supposed to have a bit of hype and is shortening, still around 9/10 though. JDS didn't look in the same shape.


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    #2797
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,839 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    EuskalHerria wrote: »
    Please people, keep betting on Diaz. Means the odds will be better on Johnson tomorrow :D

    lol

    surely three rounds standing means a very easy pts win for mj maybe even a stoppage, I see diaz swinging and missing a lot


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    #2798
    stiffler123
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭stiffler123


    Valentina Shevchenko at 7/4. She has a previous win over Joanna champion and I don't really rate Kauffman at all.


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    #2799
    PIMPHO
    Registered Users Posts: 470 ✭✭PIMPHO


    stiffler123 wrote: »
    Valentina Shevchenko at 7/4. She has a previous win over Joanna champion and I don't really rate Kauffman at all.

    Ya I've backed her at 2/1 & 9/5 and get odds have been shortening with every bookie over past days. My mate who used to train in Tiger MT, said she's an absolute beast and regularly beats up lads bigger than her.

    She's beaten Joanna 3 times in Muay Thai.


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    #2800
    Hoki
    Registered Users Posts: 2,515 ✭✭✭Hoki


    Two singles on:

    Michael Johnson to win on Points @ Evens.

    Shevchenko to win @ 5/4.

    Accumulator on:

    RDA @ 8/15
    Samman @ 1/2
    Usman @ 2/5
    Ngannou @ 5/6

    Works out at 5/1.


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    #2801
    El Guapo!
    Registered Users Posts: 12,430 ✭✭✭✭El Guapo!


    Going with a double on

    Castillo by KO
    Shevchenko to win

    Works out a little over 12/1


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    #2802
    Gamebred
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,269 ✭✭✭Gamebred


    Cole Miller should be favourite,back the win and win by sub 4/1


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    #2803
    martyos121
    Registered Users Posts: 21,349 ✭✭✭✭martyos121


    Castillo, Kaufman, Jury, Johnson, RDA all on points.

    20 returns 2253.

    Have to do one slightly mad bet since it's Christmas, good luck everyone (unless your selections conflict with mine :)).


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    #2804
    califano
    Registered Users Posts: 5,440 ✭✭✭califano


    Gamebred wrote: »
    Cole Miller should be favourite,back the win and win by sub 4/1

    I think so. Funny to think that Alers was the opening price favourite v McGregor for Cagewarriors fight for quite a while before he withdrew injured. Think MgGregor opened about 6/4 but by the time Alers pulled out it was pretty scratch or McGregor was marginal fav if memory serves.


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    #2805
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Have done Kaufman and Markos to win, JDS fight under 2.5 and Diaz & Cowboy fights to not go the distance - 11/1


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    #2806
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Paddy power has the event starting at 10 and not 8:30, something to keep and eye on....


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    #2807
    Whelo79
    Registered Users Posts: 2,649 ✭✭✭Whelo79


    ASOT wrote: »
    Paddy power has the event starting at 10 and not 8:30, something to keep and eye on....

    Fight Pass prelims are 8.30 I think with Main Card Prelims starting at 10 and Main Card at 1am.


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    #2808
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Whelo79 wrote: »
    Fight Pass prelims are 8.30 I think with Main Card Prelims starting at 10 and Main Card at 1am.

    Yeah I know that's why I'm saying keep an eye on PP because there times for fights are wrong by two hours, if your quick enough and they somehow don't notice you could possible make money off the first pre lims which they have starting at 10 not half 8.


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    #2809
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Paddy's still havnt pulled the pre lims fights yet even though there live now....


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    #2810
    Paully D
    Registered Users Posts: 28,710 ✭✭✭✭Paully D


    ASOT wrote: »
    Paddy's still havnt pulled the pre lims fights yet even though there live now....

    Threw €50 on Ngannou KO round 2 there. Fully expecting it to be voided but in the 0.01% chance it isn't I'm hoping it's an amount that won't be big enough to be flagged.


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    #2811
    martyos121
    Registered Users Posts: 21,349 ✭✭✭✭martyos121


    Paully D wrote: »
    Threw €50 on Ngannou KO round 2 there. Fully expecting it to be voided but in the 0.01% chance it isn't I'm hoping it's an amount that won't be big enough to be flagged.

    Put a tenner on it myself. Hoping they take pity on my bank balance and let the small bet through. :)

    Pffft, 50 ya chancer...:rolleyes:
    :pac:


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    #2812
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Got one of the lads to put a tenner on both results in a double I pray to jesus Christ it doesn't get voided haha


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    #2813
    stiffler123
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭stiffler123


    Unfortunately I have no money on paddy power to take advantage. I would advise withdrawing the money as soon as your bets are settled lads.


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    #2814
    martyos121
    Registered Users Posts: 21,349 ✭✭✭✭martyos121


    stiffler123 wrote: »
    Unfortunately I have no money on paddy power to take advantage. I would advise withdrawing the money as soon as your bets are settled lads.

    Fcuk that, I fancy a lump on the 2014 World Cup!


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    #2815
    Paully D
    Registered Users Posts: 28,710 ✭✭✭✭Paully D


    Anyone think Leon Edwards might be worth a punt at 47/20 here? He has a big advantage on the feet, the question is really if his time at AKA has improved his wrestling defense enough to keep Usman off him.

    Worth a small stake IMO.


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    #2816
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Paully D wrote: »
    Anyone think Leon Edwards might be worth a punt at 47/20 here? He has a big advantage on the feet, the question is really if his time at AKA has improved his wrestling defense enough to keep Usman off him.

    Worth a small stake IMO.

    On Edwards myself, don't rate usman that much didn't like him on TUF at all.


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    #2817
    Paully D
    Registered Users Posts: 28,710 ✭✭✭✭Paully D


    Got the stake refunded on the earlier bets. It rarely ever pays off but I can't help but trying when I see the opportunity! :pac:


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    #2818
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Paully D wrote: »
    Got the stake refunded on the earlier bets. It rarely ever pays off but I can't help but trying when I see the opportunity! :pac:

    Yeah I was watching it all morning, I think I got greedy by bet was due 850 back haha


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    #2819
    martyos121
    Registered Users Posts: 21,349 ✭✭✭✭martyos121


    Even mine was refunded and I only put a tenner on. :(

    How dare they not give me my hard-earned money!


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    #2820
    Paully D
    Registered Users Posts: 28,710 ✭✭✭✭Paully D


    ASOT wrote: »
    Yeah I was watching it all morning, I think I got greedy by bet was due 850 back haha

    Being nice and posting it here probably ruined your chances mate!

    If you'd stuck a tenner on it and said nothing I can't imagine it's a fight that would have attracted much attention and you'd have had a much better chance of it being processed, though to be fair they probably still would have noticed. These things rarely slip through the cracks.


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    #2821
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Paully D wrote: »
    Being nice and posting it here probably ruined your chances mate!

    If you'd stuck a tenner on it and said nothing I can't imagine it's a fight that would have attracted much attention and you'd have had a much better chance of it being processed, though to be fair they probably still would have noticed.

    Yeah I doubt I was the first person to notice anyway, after the fight before I backed it odds drifted a good bit which means a decent amount must have went on.


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