Cold Spell From Tuesday 19 Jan 09?

WolfeIRE · 13-01-2010 11:37pm #1

We have had an immense three to four weeks here on boards’ weather forum talking about snow potential. Now that the potential has gone in the short term, so has the flood of visitors to the forum.

Conscious that things can change quite significantly in the medium term, I thought it might be an idea to highlight a potential snow risk for midweek next week. We have been discussing the potential for this on the long range models thread.

GFS, supported by some other models, has been fairly consistent over the past 48 hours in signalling a return to cold weather midweek next week. GFS shows an increasing risk of East-SE winds off the colder continent kicking in midweek, across the country by Tuesday to be precise.

Snow risk for Northern Ireland and the East/South East coast on Tuesday
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/144/uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/147/uksnowrisk.png

By Wednesday, the winds turn East and feed in air directly from Russia. The uppers (air temps 1200-1600 metres up) drop to between -5c and -10c meaning that most precip that falls in Ireland will fall as snow. The chances of heavy snow showers (similar to New Years Eve) hitting the East coast and further inland on Wednesday is very significant according to the GFS
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/165/uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/165/h850t850eu.png

While all of this is going on, Britain is likely to see plenty of snow along its Eastern flank and pushing well inland.

The GFS, at this stage, does not indicate that a significant blocking system will be in place to entrench this easterly flow. The lower temps never quite make it to the South West of the country. With the absence of such a block system, similar to our recent Scandinavian High, leaves the back door open for the Atlantic to reaffirm itself. This appears to be the case on the latest GFS run.

On Thursday of next week a significant Atlantic system crosses the country eastwards from the Atlantic. It will most likely fall as sleet or snow before turning back to rain (where have I heard that before)
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/192/ukprec.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/192/uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/204/h850t850eu.png

This is my reading of the latest GFS model output and not a forecast. Further analysis and GFS runs are required, along with other models falling into line, is required to confirm this event will take place. Either way, it raises some hope (for snow lovers) that there will be a return to much colder weather than the present by Tuesday next week. This is further reinforced by the JMA model showing great potential for such a cold spell to continue beyond Thursday (http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/jma/run/J192-7.GIF?13-12). Likewise, the ECMWF (http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-168.GIF?13-0) shows significantly colder air establishing itself over the country by Wednesday. While the GEM shows that cold air will also be attempting to push our milder air back into the atlantic http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-1-144.png.

Wolfe.

rovers2001 · 13-01-2010 11:39pm

Excellent here we go again so thanks Wolfe.

inabina · 13-01-2010 11:44pm

isnt it just great to have something to look forward to in life as the last of the dirty slush slowly disappears...heres hoping

Bicycle · 13-01-2010 11:50pm

Thanks Wolfe.

I've become hooked on this site, but unfortunately can't contribute more than thanks and inanity or insanity

because of my absolute lack of knowledge.

The weather reports and forecasts here are fabulous. Kudos to all of you who share your knowledge and time.

pistolpetes11 · 13-01-2010 11:55pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

We have had an immense three to four weeks here on boards’ weather forum talking about snow potential. Now that the potential has gone in the short term, so has the flood of visitors to the forum.

Conscious that things can change quite significantly in the medium term, I thought it might be an idea to highlight a potential snow risk for midweek next week. We have been discussing the potential for this on the long range models thread.

GFS, supported by some other models, has been fairly consistent over the past 48 hours in signalling a return to cold weather midweek next week. GFS shows an increasing risk of East-SE winds off the colder continent kicking in midweek, across the country by Tuesday to be precise.

Snow risk for Northern Ireland and the East/South East coast on Tuesday
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/144/uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/147/uksnowrisk.png

By Wednesday, the winds turn East and feed in air directly from Russia. The uppers (air temps 1200-1600 metres up) drop to between -5c and -10c meaning that most precip that falls in Ireland will fall as snow. The chances of heavy snow showers (similar to New Years Eve) hitting the East coast and further inland on Wednesday is very significant according to the GFS
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/165/uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/165/h850t850eu.png

While all of this is going on, Britain is likely to see plenty of snow along its Eastern flank and pushing well inland.

The GFS, at this stage, does not indicate that a significant blocking system will be in place to entrench this easterly flow. The lower temps never quite make it to the South West of the country. With the absence of such a block system, similar to our recent Scandinavian High, leaves the back door open for the Atlantic to reaffirm itself. This appears to be the case on the latest GFS run.

On Thursday of next week a significant Atlantic system crosses the country eastwards from the Atlantic. It will most likely fall as sleet or snow before turning back to rain (where have I heard that before)
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/192/ukprec.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/192/uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100113/18/204/h850t850eu.png

This is my reading of the latest GFS model output and not a forecast. Further analysis and GFS runs are required, along with other models falling into line, is required to confirm this event will take place. Either way, it raises some hope (for snow lovers) that there will be a return to much colder weather than the present by Tuesday next week. This is further reinforced by the JMA model showing great potential for such a cold spell to continue beyond Thursday (http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/jma/run/J192-7.GIF?13-12). Likewise, the ECMWF (http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-168.GIF?13-0) shows significantly colder air establishing itself over the country by Wednesday. While the GEM shows that cold air will also be attempting to push our milder air back into the atlantic http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-1-144.png.

Wolfe.

To me this is where the real action happens on the weather forum.

You learn an awful lot in these quieter times on here .

I love looking through all the charts trying to make sense of what you guys are saying.

I have been an everyday visitor for nearly over a year now and it has been a huge learning curve, The missus thinks I have lost the plot when she sees me looking through the charts and talking about them.

Cheers

EDIT : From your viewing of the charts, do you see another Blocking high moving in again this winter ? or is this really the battle ground , if the mild atlantic air breaks through are we stuck in its cycle for a few weeks ?

200motels · 14-01-2010 12:12am

Well I for one have had enough cold weather for this year, roll on the spring.

pistolpetes11 · 14-01-2010 12:19am

200motels wrote: »

Well I for one have had enough cold weather for this year, roll on the spring.

You can keep your mild , damp , windy weather

Chicken Run · 14-01-2010 12:24am

I've also learned a lot on here these past couple of weeks - massive thanks to all the people who take the time to impart their knowledge (and don't lose their rag at people constantly asking "Is it gonna snow yet?" repeatedly)

Gonna keep popping in (was watching Slumdog Millionaire earlier, that's why I was late)

Redzer7 · 14-01-2010 12:26am

Bring on the snow

.

Scubadevils · 14-01-2010 12:30am

Good stuff, looks like we are in for a real roller coaster winter. I am over in London tonight and it had been snowing here last night... not much around the city but lovely crisp air, missed that over the last day or so in Ireland - look forward to it's swift return

IrishHomer · 14-01-2010 12:33am

Cheers Wolf!

God i love this site but i'm soooooooo addicted to this

I'm so sad that back in the days many moons ago before any internet or boards Weather forums i used to lie in bed every night until the long range weather and shipping forecast would be on BBC radio, the sound would be all crackly and dificult to hear. I was even listening intentively the days before they all got it wrong for the massive event of 1982. (soorry for sidetracking)

Can

IrishHomer · 14-01-2010 12:34am

Cheers Wolf!

God i love this site but i'm soooooooo addicted to this

I'm so sad that back in the days many moons ago before any internet or boards Weather forums i used to lie in bed every night until the long range weather and shipping forecast would be on BBC radio, the sound would be all crackly and dificult to hear. I was even listening intentively the days before they all got it wrong for the massive event of 1982. (soorry for sidetracking)

Can i be 1st in the que for a ticket for the Rollercoaster please

Bog Butter · 14-01-2010 1:01am

Interesting. I think it will be interesting to see how the authorities deal with it. John Eagleton of Met Eireann mentioned it earlier on in the week but only in passing. I wonder are they warning the revelvant authorities? Do the emergency committee know? Do the councils know? And are they stock piling salt in preperation? We shall see!

wushu · 14-01-2010 1:22am

Excellent post Wolfe :cool: looks like next week will turn cold again:) just how cold is open to question but thanks to you and others here on the boards for your input

delw · 14-01-2010 1:24am

lets hope its game on again wolfe(spare a thought for haiti)

Iancar29 · 14-01-2010 1:32am

The Clod snap .....TAKE 2! Ha

Oh by the way ,has no1 noticed the title of this thread has January 09!?!
2010 people 2010!!

WolfeIRE · 14-01-2010 1:33am

Iancar29 wrote: »

The Clod snap .....TAKE 2! Ha

Oh by the way ,has no1 noticed the title of this thread has January 09!?!
2010 people 2010!!

haha. sorry. Maybe one of the mods could change. If not then this is a weather postcast thread.

By the way, here is an uppers chart from GFS for wednesday midnight

isle of man · 14-01-2010 1:39am

WolfeIRE wrote: »

haha. sorry. Maybe one of the mods could change. If not then this is a weather postcast thread.

By the way, here is an uppers chart from GFS for wednesday midnight

Thats a bit tasty looking.

Out of all the charts i have picked up on over the past 2 weeks on here.
weather online seams to me to be the better charts for getting it right.

the first ones you posted wolfie seam to be hit and miss with us.
maybe its becaus they have no real dater about the island so could be why.

Queen-Mise · 14-01-2010 1:45am

Oh god. Here we go again.
On a plus note -january hasnt been boring or depressing this year. So bring on more snow :-):-). It will give Us something to talk and give out about.

irish1967 · 14-01-2010 1:46am

Peeks in. I'm still here too

quietobserver · 14-01-2010 1:59am

do we really need to hear more people give out Queen Mise?

jeez between people on the street and the tv and radio its nag nag nag:D

Bog Butter · 14-01-2010 2:10am

Iancar29 wrote: »

The Clod snap .....TAKE 2! Ha

Oh by the way ,has no1 noticed the title of this thread has January 09!?!
2010 people 2010!!

Is it Take 2 though? Met Eireann say tempetures will be below average until Friday. If this happens on Tuesday that would leave make it only 3 days of mild weather. I would call those 3 days and interlude, a brief break in one recorded breaking cold spell.

Pangea · 14-01-2010 2:34am

Wolfe ,look what you gone and done now ,raising our hopes lol

WolfeIRE · 14-01-2010 11:47am

Light snow at sherkin island in cork at the moment

SHERKIN ISLAND(A) CALM LIGHT SNOW 2 99

Ronan|Raven · 14-01-2010 11:54am

Really hope this changes, there are some of us who desperatly need the weather to warm up a bit in order to try make a living again

but um yeah *YAY PRETTY SNOW JAJAJA :rolleyes::rolleyes: *

eskimocat · 14-01-2010 12:07pm

and slowly the rollercoaster lovers creep back... word will spread slowly, it starts with the odd snowbie jumping on board with the mere mention of the lovely white stuff!! then with the first flake of snow, the board explodes with posters, "will it snow here? Will it will it", "Where is here??" etc...

I LOVE IT!!!! Roll it on, thanks WolfeIre

rhonin · 14-01-2010 12:10pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

To me this is where the real action happens on the weather forum.

You learn an awful lot in these quieter times on here .

I love looking through all the charts trying to make sense of what you guys are saying.

I have been an everyday visitor for nearly over a year now and it has been a huge learning curve, The missus thinks I have lost the plot when she sees me looking through the charts and talking about them.

Cheers

EDIT : From your viewing of the charts, do you see another Blocking high moving in again this winter ? or is this really the battle ground , if the mild atlantic air breaks through are we stuck in its cycle for a few weeks ?

I get that as well

WolfeIRE · 14-01-2010 12:11pm

The set up has not changed significantly overnight from my initial post. East/SE flow establishing itself over the country gradually from Tuesday to Thursday. The charts indicate a high pressure system over Russia that will be no match for the Atlantic in terms of keeping the cold spell in place. Should high pressure build further north and west (Scandinavia) then we could be in for something more significant.

Looks like an Atlantic system will break the cold spell late Thursday/early Friday as it pushes eastwards across the country.

After that the weather shifts between milder and colder interludes, with much of the colder periods coming from the W or NW bringing heavy and frequent wintry showers to the western half of the country. However, some models are indicating that a high pressure blocking system will establish itself over Scandinavia by the 24th.

Will take a look at the new runs in the next few hours and post an update

TheBastard · 14-01-2010 12:51pm

Back again- cant believe there is still only 2 pages!! Up in the gym last night, who did i bump into.... Gerry Murphy! i was looking at him for a second and i thought to myself "is it him" i was tempted to ask what happened the polar low!! but i bit my lip!

Snows Great! But slush and Snow slush turning to ice at night is crap!

i want some of the good stuff!!

I'll be keeoing an eye out for Gerry again- i'll ask him his expert opinion!

Great work by the lads in here over the past month Snow Addict,WC, Wolf, and the guy from canada- cant think of his name! there are others "you know who you are"

VIVA LA SNOW:D

sideswipe · 14-01-2010 12:58pm

Ronan|Raven wrote: »

Really hope this changes, there are some of us who desperatly need the weather to warm up a bit in order to try make a living again but um yeah *YAY PRETTY SNOW JAJAJA :rolleyes::rolleyes: *

It’s funny how some of us have this deep down obsession with snow. Like the above poster I need it to warm up for work reason's but part of me is still saying "c'mon bring it on I want to see that fluffy white stuff up to the window sills". even though it could have a bad effect on my income. I had an important hospital appointment last Monday and needed a thaw to be able to go, but when 'snowmaggedon' didn't materialize on Sunday/Monday (in Dublin) meaning I'd no trouble making my appointment part of me was still really disappointed. Weird really, think I need to talk to somebody!

Speak Now · 14-01-2010 1:02pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The set up has not changed significantly overnight from my initial post. East/SE flow establishing itself over the country gradually from Tuesday to Thursday. The charts indicate a high pressure system over Russia that will be no match for the Atlantic in terms of keeping the cold spell in place. Should high pressure build further north and west (Scandinavia) then we could be in for something more significant.

Looks like an Atlantic system will break the cold spell late Thursday/early Friday as it pushes eastwards across the country.

After that the weather shifts between milder and colder interludes, with much of the colder periods coming from the W or NW bringing heavy and frequent wintry showers to the western half of the country. However, some models are indicating that a high pressure blocking system will establish itself over Scandinavia by the 24th.

Will take a look at the new runs in the next few hours and post an update

Are you sure? I thought all this mornings runs show the high further east and leaving us exposed to the atlantic :mad: No more snow next week which is good for some i suppose.

mchammer22 · 14-01-2010 1:04pm

Yes indeedy! thanks to ALL who have inputted their forecasts/reports! I'm a newbie to this site but have been looking at it for over 4 weeks now.I'm totally obsessed with the weather and always have been and its sooo interesting to read these posts. I'm looking forward to the developments now on Tues yeeaahh go snow!!

Chicken Run · 14-01-2010 1:05pm

sideswipe wrote: »

It’s funny how some of us have this deep down obsession with snow. Like the above poster I need it to warm up for work reason's but part of me is still saying "c'mon bring it on I want to see that fluffy white stuff up to the window sills". even though it could have a bad effect on my income. I had an important hospital appointment last Monday and needed a thaw to be able to go, but when 'snowmaggedon' didn't materialize on Sunday/Monday (in Dublin) meaning I'd no trouble making my appointment part of me was still really disappointed. Weird really, think I need to talk to somebody!

well if you find someone, book me in too.
I work outside (gardener) so the snow and ice is a complete PITA for me, work-wise.
I also keep animals so looking after them in the cold weather takes a lot more effort - water supplies unfrozen, more feed costs in cold weather, having to dress up like an eskimo to go out and bring them in etc etc.
But I love the feeling of waking up early in the morning and seeing that pale glow through the windows, getting up and seeing everywhere blanketed in white...just like being a kid again.
Driving in it doesn't phase me so much - I grew up in Yorkshire and regularly drove to work up the Pennines so am kinda used to it.... and I love sledging !!!

WolfeIRE · 14-01-2010 1:05pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Are you sure? I thought all this mornings runs show the high further east and leaving us exposed to the atlantic.

the charts do show the high to the east (russia) as I stated. However, there will be a flood of cold air over the country from mid-late Tuesday to thursday according to the GFS.

Here is the set up for next thursday showing the colder easterly flow coming up against the atlantic system

Should this transpire then we are likely to see a cold W/NW showery setup across the country from Friday. However, small fluctuations, particularly to the location of that high over the coming days, will have a significant bearing on matters mid week

gens-0-2-162.png?6

WolfeIRE · 14-01-2010 1:19pm

Other charts for next Thursday. An upgrade on last evening's runs

JMA MODEL
J192-7.GIF?13-0

GEM Model

nacho libre · 14-01-2010 1:46pm

72 (19 members & 53 guests) Moderators : 4

what? no snow forecast for the east today, then:p

i'd take a north westerly airflow. it would be brief but a good chance of snowfall by night while it lasted

owenc · 14-01-2010 3:05pm

well i think this mild spell has started already sunny here and is 3.5c it actually feels like 10c or something it feels really warm reminding me what summer is like lol i thought the thermometer would read 12c or something!!!!! hopefully temps stay lovely and sunny like this then back into 0-3c maxes from tuesday with snow now that would be good!

14-01-2010 3:36pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The set up has not changed significantly overnight from my initial post. East/SE flow establishing itself over the country gradually from Tuesday to Thursday. The charts indicate a high pressure system over Russia that will be no match for the Atlantic in terms of keeping the cold spell in place. Should high pressure build further north and west (Scandinavia) then we could be in for something more significant.

Looks like an Atlantic system will break the cold spell late Thursday/early Friday as it pushes eastwards across the country.

Before we get carried away,I'll make 2 comments.
2 days is not enough to bring cold surface air from middle europe to Ireland..never mind russia.
You need the flow for 4 days at least especially as there will be no cold surface pool in the uk.

Secondly,whilst gfs may be indicative at this stage it is useless and has been shown to be useless at handling Easterlies beyond 4 days.
I certainly wouldn't trust it this far out for uppers.

I wouldn't even bother looking at jma.

If you put up charts from ECM with a flow from the east sourced in Russia thats going for 4 days then I'll sit up and take notice.

owenc · 14-01-2010 3:40pm

flipping hell its 5.4c here now and the snow is still lying about 10 inches at the very top of the mountain omg you could actaully goto the beach it feels that warm!!!! flipping heck!!!!

francosp · 14-01-2010 4:39pm

What do the experts say percentage wise is the likeyhood of this next cold event happening ?

By reading the posts here and considering its still +168 out i'd say less than 20%

Anyone else care to predict the percentage of this next cold spell happening ?

irishdub14 · 14-01-2010 5:15pm

This cold spell sounds like it will be very short but very cold if its coming directly from Russia!! Let's hope we see more significant snowfall (in Dublin anyway! :P) before the Winters out.

Bog Butter · 14-01-2010 5:21pm

irishdub14 wrote: »

This cold spell sounds like it will be very short but very cold if its coming directly from Russia!! Let's hope we see more significant snowfall (in Dublin anyway! :P) before the Winters out.

Short and sweet (i.e snow) would be just fine.

Darragh29 · 14-01-2010 5:26pm

Lubby Jubbly!

nacho libre · 14-01-2010 5:36pm

i think it's quite clear to anyone studying model outputs that it will be a brief flirtation with colder air before the atlantic takes over. of course it won't be of interest to those in the east but if we do get a cold north westerly airflow sometime next week, many of us in the west and north west could well see snow by night. yes, it will be a brief affair, and won't lead to huge amounts, but any snow is not to be sniffed at.

Supercell · 14-01-2010 5:46pm

Can I get over the current cold snap please?, still have 7"+ of concrete like snow out there and covered roads..the cold spell isnt gone yet!

owenc · 14-01-2010 6:07pm

Supercell wrote: »

Can I get over the current cold snap please?, still have 7"+ of concrete like snow out there and covered roads..the cold spell isnt gone yet!

Well after getting to 5c I'd like to think the cold spell was over we arnt in Spain !!!!!!

items · 14-01-2010 10:21pm

Footpaths along with tarmac lane starting to freeze over here in Louth.

Might be return of the frost here.

Pangea · 14-01-2010 10:29pm

Did ya see your man on the news ,said he was standing on 7 foot of snow ,surley thats not right? lol

k123456 · 14-01-2010 10:40pm

I'm due to fly out of Dublin airport 1st thing jan 21, is it likely we will have snow to contend with (2o%, 30% etc)
and

After runway is cleared, is a case of letting the flights which have been delayed longest out first

snowstreams · 14-01-2010 10:55pm

Whats the likelyhood of avalanches in the irish mountains now that the thaw has kicked in?
There has already been a few in wales. The vid on this page has a pic of one in wales http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/8460349.stm

Bishop_Donal · 14-01-2010 11:11pm

Next week certainly looking increasingly interesting.

We seem to be right on the dividing line between the cold continental airflow and the warm and moist Atlantic airflow.

Will be interesting to see which wins out. Would be a complete sickener if Britain got all the action again:mad:

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=1&res=750&type=wind&starttime=

Cold Spell From Tuesday 19 Jan 09?

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