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How long before Irish reunification?

  • 24-04-2019 12:14am
    #1
    Posts: 0


    Just reading an article in today's Irish Times - Brexit lights touchpaper for next political firestorm – Irish unity - and the highlighted line stood out. The fact that the Unionist academic, Peter Shirlow, is actually saying he'd be surprised if there's a United Ireland in 15 years and not 50 or even 30 years is revealing. 15 years is nothing.
    The figures tell an obvious story. The demographic shift is clear from school and third-level figures, and has been for several years. In 2010/2011 there were 163,683 Catholics and 120,397 Protestants in Northern Ireland schools from nursery up to second level. In the current school year the Catholic figure stands at 175,617, while the Protestant figure is down to 114,290. It was a similar story at university level.... “But there still should be a unionist majority,” says Shirlow. “Unification is not going to be as soon as republicans think. Gerry Adams said it would be in 2016, but that is three years ago and counting. I would be surprised if there is a united Ireland in 15 years’ time.” Feeney disagrees. At the start of 2012 he saw a united Ireland coming in about 25 years. Now he thinks it will happen in about 10. “It is going to be somewhere in the 2020s; that is the speed change is moving at,” he says.


    The last census in 2011 put the Protestant population at 48%, just 3% more than Catholics at 45%.

    More recent figures from 2016 show that among those of working age 44% are now Catholic and 40% Protestant. The difference is even more marked among schoolchildren with 51% Catholic, 37% Protestant.

    Only among the over 60s is there a majority of Protestants with 57%, compared to Catholics on 35%.

    Dr Nolan said: "Three years from now we will end up, I think, in the ironic situation on the centenary of the state where we actually have a state that has a Catholic majority."
    ('Catholic majority possible' in NI by 2021)

    David McWilliams, Demographics are shifting towards a united Ireland - we must have a plan


    That Angela Merkel was in Dublin a week or two ago and making comparisons with the reunification of her own country speaks volumes for how the most powerful person in Europe sees Northern Ireland's medium-long-term position. That all-Ireland context for NI, rather than a UK context, was very significant.

    Given the enormous changes that Brexit is making on top of the demographic change, how long do you think it will be before Ireland is reunified?

    How long more before Ireland is reunified? 1030 votes

    0-10 years
    0%
    10-15 years
    29%
    Tazz TLoGiEPáidv10PsygnosisFractureambasitewill_fordebig sykeBluefoamMr.Nice Guy[Deleted User]InfiniroyoftheroversJammyddavyccrogue-entityRikandcelticbestBob the Builder 305 votes
    15-20 years
    21%
    jdBlitzKriegXterminatorTuskysettopboxIggiebuzzerxxAltheusrunawaybishopBig Earshamsterboy10000maniacsShinyNTCA Dub in GlasgoBrian?CatInABoxjoneskenmcdok_golf 220 votes
    20-30 years
    17%
    JadenSimiBorzoibricksZhaneThomasloyatemujesus_thats_greDigiwebkaltzclearzSir Oxmanspacetweekleche solaragjimbad2dabone1huge1RoanmoreNIMANPMC999 180 votes
    30-40 years
    14%
    zenithsixpack's little hatSupercellSpearRew[Deleted User]Corben DallaslintdrummerjimmycrackcormmikepExplosive_Cornflakeglynfenda1JupiterKidTonyD79countybikoNailzCycloniusTime 147 votes
    Ulster Says No. It will never happen
    17%
    NemesisSickBoyTom Dunnethe_sycojbkenncarbsymossietuxyPompey MagnusThe_B_ManweemcdlamaqCinaionapaulDacelonidMickeroovictor8600storkerblackplum123atilladehun 178 votes


«134567201

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,275 ✭✭✭Your Face


    There's a lot people are taking for granted when speaking about reunification.


  • Posts: 5,311 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Indefinitely is my prediction.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,716 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    20-30 years
    Star Trek says not long.

    2024


    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,857 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Decades off at least.

    What we have seen from the Brexit freakshow is the question on what exactly will a United Ireland look like remains largely unanswered.

    It is one thing to vote on an ideal, like the Brexit vote of 2016, but what exactly is Brexit. There are about a dozen versions of Brexit still doing the rounds and there is no clear majority for any of them.
    That is why the details of what a UI is very important.

    Do we rejoin the Commonwealth? What is the status of the Monarch in Ireland post UI. What about the flag and anthem? What about the electoral map and do we devolve more power to Local Authorities or curtail all executive power within the Cabinet? What will the status of the PSNI be? What about our Tax codes? What about the NHS or the education system? Will Irish still be compulsory in Ireland?

    A 1001 questions need to be answered first before we go down this road.

    There would have to be numerous votes on a UI in the south alone due to our constitution being amended multiple times.

    Imagine the scenario. We vote for the idea of a UI, but when the details of a deal are fleshed out and the economic cost and reality are known, we reject it. Then what?

    Brexit is a wake-up call for people selling simple emotional fairy stories.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,424 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    Dont think it will happen in my lifetime.

    But we could have something like unity in everything but name.

    Depends how well Ireland will do too. Never underestimate the power of strong economy in deciding loyalty.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    30-40 years
    I'd be surprised if it happened in less than 20 years. Ireland is gradually unifying economically/socially anyway which explains why a lot of the more bitter unionists are pro-Brexit.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,450 ✭✭✭✭kneemos


    A Scottish/NI union back in the EU is more likely.

    Ireland doesn't want the North anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,626 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    I think all this talk of Reunification is our equivalent political delusion to the English political delusion of Brexit.

    Great in theory, but very difficult in practice and much more trouble than it's worth.

    It may happen some day, but people need to get real.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,698 ✭✭✭Badly Drunk Boy


    Where's the 'The Republic says No' option?


    And how did Censored11 get two votes for the final option? Vote-rigging already?


    478554.JPG


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭piplip87


    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/northern-ireland-and-opinion-poll-1.3822016%3fmode=amp

    It seems that on 58% of Catholics would want it. Which is still fairly low.

    At the end of the day if you take the heart and the romanticism out of the United Ireland debate and get down to what the real issues should be.

    1) Healthcare - A man earning the average wage in the North with a wife and a few kids, what happens if one of the kids gets sick ? Down here absolutely fleeced, up there free for the user.
    2) Council/Property tax. Down here fleeced again in this regard with no services for the majority in return. Up there waste collection, free recycling centres are just two examples.

    We need to work alot on life, rent, housing and cost of living here to get any undecideds to vote for a United Ireland.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,450 ✭✭✭✭kneemos


    Imagine trying to negotiate with the unionists.

    Christ on a bike.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 534 ✭✭✭Erik Shun


    I think a lot of people in theory, would like a reunified Ireland.
    But in practice, the possibility of this happening peacefully is almost nil to my mind..


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 12,602 Mod ✭✭✭✭2011


    Ulster Says No. It will never happen
    I believe it will happen eventually, as in 100 years from now. It would happen sooner if it were not for the likes of the New IRA putting obstacles in the way.

    Many have this romantic view of a united ireland, but few have actually thought of how the reality would work in practice. There is the cost for a start, every second person in the north seems to be some sort of civil servant. People up there also have certain expectations in terms of public services which we are incapable of delivering on. As has been pointed out already we would have to deal with intransigent unionism. On top of all of that we would have to deal with terrorists groupings on both sides who would have have to keep "the lads" busy with criminality / drug dealing /extortion etc. to an even greater extent than they do now. Our security forces are not equipped to deal with that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,512 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    kneemos wrote: »
    Imagine trying to negotiate with the unionists.

    Christ on a bike.

    Like trying to nail jelly to a wall.

    They'd all have die off and become extinct first.


  • Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭Samuel Vimes


    Hopefully never.
    We have very little in common with that backward hole that is Northern Ireland and would be wasting valuable resources dealing with it and its dysfunctional population.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 12,602 Mod ✭✭✭✭2011


    Ulster Says No. It will never happen
    Hopefully never.
    We have very little in common with that backward hole that is Northern Ireland and would be wasting valuable resources dealing with it and its dysfunctional population.

    A lot of people share that view to the point that may prevent unification ever occurring.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,899 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Hopefully never. We have very little in common with that backward hole that is Northern Ireland and would be wasting valuable resources dealing with it and its dysfunctional population.


    They look like us humans to me, and seem to be as dysfunctional as us to, but maybe I'm wrong


  • Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭Samuel Vimes


    2011 wrote: »
    A lot of people share that view to the point that may prevent unification ever occurring.
    We live in hope.
    It would be akin to inviting a family of travellers to move into your house and mind it while you are out working.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 534 ✭✭✭Erik Shun


    2011 wrote: »
    A lot of people share that view to the point that may prevent unification ever occurring.

    Isn't the word reunification misleading?
    The only time this Island has been unified was under British control..there has never been a unified Irish state.
    Don't think it can happen, as long as the liked of Arlene Foster are around, they won't allow it


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭Bob Harris


    As I understand it when there are more catholics than protestants then there will be unification?
    Is a critical mass of catholics the only factor because it's all that's mentioned in the opening post.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭Bob Harris


    kneemos wrote: »
    Imagine trying to negotiate with the unionists.

    Christ on a bike.

    Dragging Christ into the negotiations wouldn't help.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Minimum 20 years. Much, much longer if violence kicks off again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,003 ✭✭✭Eggs For Dinner


    We respect our past (the good and the bad). Nordies seem to want to continue living in it. I've nothing in common with such people and wouldn't want anything to do with them


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 12,602 Mod ✭✭✭✭2011


    Ulster Says No. It will never happen
    Bob Harris wrote: »
    As I understand it when there are more catholics than protestants then there will be unification?
    Is a critical mass of catholics the only factor because it's all that's mentioned in the opening post.

    Not that simple.
    Those of us that live in the ROI will have a say in this decision too.
    As Samual Vines points out many on this side of the boarder are not too keen on the idea for the reasons stated in the posts above.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,772 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    piplip87 wrote: »
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/northern-ireland-and-opinion-poll-1.3822016%3fmode=amp

    It seems that on 58% of Catholics would want it. Which is still fairly low.

    At the end of the day if you take the heart and the romanticism out of the United Ireland debate and get down to what the real issues should be.

    1) Healthcare - A man earning the average wage in the North with a wife and a few kids, what happens if one of the kids gets sick ? Down here absolutely fleeced, up there free for the user.
    2) Council/Property tax. Down here fleeced again in this regard with no services for the majority in return. Up there waste collection, free recycling centres are just two examples.

    We need to work alot on life, rent, housing and cost of living here to get any undecideds to vote for a United Ireland.

    This is the problem precisely!!

    Also a huge number of people in NI are employed by the UK Government.
    If they left the UK, all those people lose their jobs. What's that going to cost the Tax payer down south?
    Also there's the huge issue (and cost) of policing the North

    Everyone keeps talking about reunification opinions in the North without even thinking about the South.
    As far as I am aware there would need to be a referendum on the issue, and I for one would certainly be voting against reunification.

    The best thing for NI would for them to leave the UK and set up as their own country and then join the EU.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭Bob Harris


    2011 wrote: »
    Not that simple.
    Those of us that live in the ROI will have a say in this decision too.
    As Samual Vines points out many on this side of the boarder are not too keen on the idea for the reasons stated in the posts above.

    I know but in the OP it's the only thing mentioned - catholic population in schools and in the general population as if once there is a catholic majority then automatically unification is on the cards. Who's to say most catholics wouldn't prefer the current situation regardless of majorities?

    Personally I'd say unification is a long way off and I'd doubt if would happen this century.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭zapitastas


    Bob Harris wrote: »
    I know but in the OP it's the only thing mentioned - catholic population in schools and in the general population as if once there is a catholic majority then automatically unification is on the cards. Who's to say most catholics wouldn't prefer the current situation regardless of majorities?

    Personally I'd say unification is a long way off and I'd doubt if would happen this century.

    The biggest issue to determine how quickly events could unfold will be brexit. A disorganised exit will see a lot of people in the north looking to re-enter the EU through unification. An interview with a unionist farmer in fermanagh a few weeks ago was pretty telling. He said he was a unionist but at the end of the day his family can't eat a union flag so if he loses European subsidies that other options would have to be looked at and that the Dublin government looked to be doing more to protect the livelihoods of farmers than his immediate representative


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,265 ✭✭✭threeball


    20-30 years
    It was closer towards the end of 2018 than any other point in time due to the Brexit shambles and ineptitude of the DUP but the so called nationalists in the New IRA and other groups have pushed it back by years already with their latest actions and if they continue it will never happen.

    Not many in the south are willing to suck up a big bill for the sake of reunification either.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 693 ✭✭✭The Satanist


    15-20 years
    We will have a vote in approximately 10 years, with about 3 years to implement reunification. A combination of British payments and EU funding will fund the transition for a couple of decades after. Favorable FDI in border areas will aid the move from dependency in civil service employment to other industries. Shipbuilding will enjoy a renaissance in Belfast, employing tens of thousands. Derry will grow, this will spread to Donegal, helping the region flourish. Were will all live happily ever after. The end.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 43 Censored11


    Where's the 'The Republic says No' option?


    And how did Censored11 get two votes for the final option? Vote-rigging already?


    478554.JPG

    Whatchu talkin' bout Willis...
    I only voted once.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,376 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    20 years away.

    Same as it has been for the last 40 years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,388 ✭✭✭Cina


    Ulster Says No. It will never happen
    I imagine the moment they all realize their TV license money has to go to RTÉ instead of BBC they'll vote no to it anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 528 ✭✭✭All My Stars Aligned


    Not in my lifetime.... thankfully.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,513 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Interesting there is no option in the poll for the people in the republic to say no.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,376 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    Interesting there is no option in the poll for the people in the republic to say no.

    A recent opinion poll showed that only 38% of respondents in the Republic would vote for unification with NI if it meant higher taxes.

    It would mean higher taxes.

    The actual number who would vote in a real referendum for unification I would predict is considerably lower than the 38% - probably around 25%. Most of those 25% pay fcuk all of the taxes anyway - quelle suprise

    The reality is that people place far higher value on their taxes, schools, hospitals, roads, pensions, etc. than a misty-eyed unification with a people we've little in common with.

    In the meantime of course, we'll all pretend to want unification, for as long as its not a real possibility. The reality is that it's never going to happen - and most of the Republic, discounting the bar-stool brigade, are totally fine with that


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,398 ✭✭✭thomil


    15-20 years
    I think ten to fifteen years is a good, if slightly optimistic option. However, events have a tendency to "run away" from people, certainly people in Germany in April 1989 had no idea that by November of that same year, the intra-German border would be open and the Berlin Wall would be history.
    It would be prudent to start planning for a post-reunification political & economical structure now, rather than waiting to be smothered by events. However, I see nothing at all of that sort coming from those political parties pushing for a border poll.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,909 ✭✭✭Gwynplaine


    Hopefully it will never happen. The Brits don't want it, and the majority of Ireland don't want it either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭Bob Harris


    zapitastas wrote: »
    The biggest issue to determine how quickly events could unfold will be brexit. A disorganised exit will see a lot of people in the north looking to re-enter the EU through unification. An interview with a unionist farmer in fermanagh a few weeks ago was pretty telling. He said he was a unionist but at the end of the day his family can't eat a union flag so if he loses European subsidies that other options would have to be looked at and that the Dublin government looked to be doing more to protect the livelihoods of farmers than his immediate representative

    Money talks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,513 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    A recent opinion poll showed that only 38% of respondents in the Republic would vote for unification with NI if it meant higher taxes.

    It would mean higher taxes.

    The actual number who would vote in a real referendum for unification I would predict is considerably lower than the 38% - probably around 25%. Most of those 25% pay fcuk all of the taxes anyway - quelle suprise

    The reality is that people place far higher value on their taxes, schools, hospitals, roads, pensions, etc. than a misty-eyed unification with a people we've little in common with.

    In the meantime of course, we'll all pretend to want unification, for as long as its not a real possibility. The reality is that it's never going to happen - and most of the Republic, discounting the bar-stool brigade, are totally fine with that

    And I totally agree with that. I just thought it was interesting that the OP decided not to include it as an option on the poll.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,802 ✭✭✭✭suicide_circus


    i like the idea in a sort if misty eyed hypothetical way but as soon as i put any thought into it, the whole scenario snowballs into extreme difficulty. i think a lot of things will need to change massively in order to make it a viable path. I'm not prepared for a bloodletting however.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭Farawayhome


    15-20 years
    You have to think for yourself on this. Whenever the topic comes up, you will get the scaremongers shouting about how awful this will be for everyone. They don't have a clue how it would work out but they will continue to shout. It's a bit like with the abortion referendum, these people will do anything to try to get their way.
    Truth is, we would need a big discussion on what it would entail. The EU and Britain will give huge funding towards this. We already have loads of cross border initiatives, in all parts of life. Economic, social, the huge majority of sporting organisations are cross border. We are all very similar on this island. What huge difference is there between the people of Donegal and Derry? Monaghan and Fermanagh?
    Being a member of the EU would be hugely beneficial for the people in the north. Also, those who support the rights of the lbgtq community should be in favour of reunification and women's rights activists.
    It would take a lot of work to draw up the details but if done right, this is a great opportunity for all Irish people.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,698 ✭✭✭Badly Drunk Boy


    Censored11 wrote: »
    Whatchu talkin' bout Willis...
    I only voted once.
    It's a public poll, and I noticed that your username appeared twice (and nobody else's did). I'm not saying you did anything wrong...but I'm not ruling it out. :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 106 ✭✭Fusitive


    We respect our past (the good and the bad). Nordies seem to want to continue living in it. I've nothing in common with such people and wouldn't want anything to do with them

    Would you say the same thing if ROI independence never happened and the people the Republic were still under the control of the British monarchy?

    Nationalists in the North were subjugated to serious discrimination and appalling conditions and civil rights violations, many of them who witnessed it are still alive And bare those scars, you were lucky enough to be born into a republic free from all those problems post independence. I find the view of many people in the South hypocritical on these matters because those very people in the Nationalist Northern terrorities fought for Irish Independence but got left behind and they too have a lot to do you you living in an independent state today free from the civil rights abuses and segregation they suffered from in the North for decades after.

    I think many people in the Republic have very short memories because it suits them to have it that way. In the North, 900 years of history doesn't just dissapear in 20 years and many of the problems that exist there are governmental mismanagement and a gerrymandered border that should have never existed. Much of what you have seen in your lifetime in the North was what was going on all over the Country 100 years ago, the South had civillian guerrillas, partisan policing and social unrest in the very same circumstances as the North has faced since partition. The people in the South take great pride in gaining Independence like that but many of the same people label those in the North as delinquents for wanting to break free from it. The hypocrisy of it is rife.

    On how far away unification is, I think it's very far away yet and even with my highly Nationalist tendencies towards a United Ireland, it's not something I want to see without unionists been welcomed and given concessions even in the event of a majority landslide for a United Ireland. History can't repeat itself again but this time against Unionists because we all know how important identity and rights are in North.The GFA was a miracle in itself and trying to renegotiate the other way around for a second time will be a serious can of worms as well. I do believe it's a partition that was destined to fall from the very beginning and should never have existed because of it's fragility, desperation moves by both sides lead to partition within partition and it will never last.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    30-40 years
    A United Ireland is probably one of the worst things that could happen to regional towns and cities in the Republic. You’d see a massive inflow of FDI to Belfast at the expense of investment into Galway, Cork, Limerick etc.

    Be careful what you wish for.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Squeaky bum time for the Cruise-O'Brien set :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,615 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    A United Ireland is probably one of the worst things that could happen to regional towns and cities in the Republic. You’d see a massive inflow of FDI to Belfast at the expense of investment into Galway, Cork, Limerick etc.

    Be careful what you wish for.

    Why?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,615 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    If we get NI levels of public services i.e genuinely free first and second level education no cost for books low-cost school meals lots of support staff in schools on the other hand massive third level fees funded by students loans. There are too many things to mention local councils provide far more services in the NI and UK that they do here.

    The NHS free at the point of use GP services ect.

    If we get all the good bits and its not going to cost us anything why not.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,717 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    mariaalice wrote: »
    If we get NI levels of public services i.e genuinely free first and second level education no cost for books low-cost school meals lots of support staff in schools on the other hand massive third level fees funded by students loans. There are two many things to mention local councils provide far more services in the NI and UK that they do here.

    Would people be happy to pay the much higher property taxes that people in the UK pay to fund the councils?

    For example, 1,200 euro pa LPT instead of the 225 that many people pay.

    Also, many people in the UK pay 500 euro pa for water charges.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    30-40 years
    mariaalice wrote: »
    Why?

    What?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,305 ✭✭✭✭branie2


    10-15 years
    Hopefully soon


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