Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

JJJackal · 15-08-2020 10:25am

PropQueries wrote: »

How will this impact the cohort of first-time buyers reliant on the bank of mom and dad for deposits?

If the parents pension fund is invested in property funds and their pension fund is now expected to worth much less than they thought and then the Government starts to take an ever bigger share of the family home under the fair deal scheme, which means little left for an actual inheritance, will the parents become more reluctant or unable to help out their kids going forward?

The argument to support commercial property price falling supports residential property rise.

People will need bigger spaces to WFH (so if you have a spare room your going to keep it instead of renting it out), better broadband... this creates demand...

brisan · 15-08-2020 10:27am

Pelezico wrote: »

They are better off with lower taxes.

But the construction industry in UK contracted severely during Covid19.

Liverpool Docklands ( including the new 500 million pound football stadium ) will provide a lot of construction jobs over the next 5 years.
Johnson has publicly stated he wants to get the construction industry going again

brisan · 15-08-2020 10:39am

Cyrus wrote: »

Are we even technically in recession yet ? Didn’t think we were.

If so to refer to it as the mother of them all is a little hyperbolic imo.

Well according to the FED it’s the worst recession since the crash of 1920
The central Bank of England is saying it will be the worst recession in 300 years
The Irish Central Bank says the worst recession since the foundation of the state
The ECB saying the worst recession in peacetime in the last 100 years
Someone somewhere is doing the maths and is either totally off the mark or bang on the money.

Blowfish · 15-08-2020 11:01am

ebayissues wrote: »

I'm still not convinced that WFH will change drastically. if covid is here to stay maybe. but vaccinee hopefully should be out in 2yrs time and things will be back to normal. When this happens, WFH would be once/twice per week.

When you say once/twice a week, it doesn't sound a lot, but that's 20%/40% less occupancy. That's easily enough for companies to want to go for hotdesking and move to 20%/40% less rented floor space. Having demand drop by up to 40% is pretty huge.

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 11:02am

Claw Hammer wrote: »

They are going to have to do as other people do, stand on their own two feet!

I agree with you but I can see how this is going to come back and bite me and other older people. As all pension funds (public and private), are basically PAYG ponzi schemes, if the younger cohort must save more for a deposit on a home as we can't or become more reluctant to help them out, they will obviously cut their own pension fund contributions, which means less current cash in my pension fund to meet my payments.

Wanderer78 · 15-08-2020 11:05am

PropQueries wrote: »

I agree with you but I can see how this is going to come back and bite me and other older people. As all pension funds (public and private), are basically PAYG ponzi schemes, if the younger cohort must save more for a deposit on a home as we can't or become more reluctant to help them out, they will obviously cut their own pension fund contributions, which means less current cash in my pension fund to meet my payments.

....and when private sector financial institutions experience a reduction in demand for credit, expect things to get very hairy indeed!

Pelezico · 15-08-2020 11:32am

brisan wrote: »

Liverpool Docklands ( including the new 500 million pound football stadium ) will provide a lot of construction jobs over the next 5 years.
Johnson has publicly stated he wants to get the construction industry going again

I hope you are right. We need HS2, Hinkley Point, Sizewell and a while host of urban regeneration.

Bass Reeves · 15-08-2020 11:52am

Blowfish wrote: »

When you say once/twice a week, it doesn't sound a lot, but that's 20%/40% less occupancy. That's easily enough for companies to want to go for hotdesking and move to 20%/40% less rented floor space. Having demand drop by up to 40% is pretty huge.

WFH may be more of a reconfiguration than a reduction in office space. Traditional companies often tend to own there own office space. People will still be expected to go into the office 2 days a week any people I see WFH are doing this. This will not equate to a 40% reduction in office space.

If you are WFH in general you will not want to attend Monday or Friday, most will veer towards Tuesday to Thursday in the office. While room for desks may reduce there will be a bigger demand for meeting rooms.

Companies will not want young sales people.meeting customers in there dingy two bed apartment.

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 12:02pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

WFH may be more of a reconfiguration than a reduction in office space. Traditional companies often tend to own there own office space. People will still be expected to go into the office 2 days a week any people I see WFH are doing this. This will not equate to a 40% reduction in office space.

If you are WFH in general you will not want to attend Monday or Friday, most will veer towards Tuesday to Thursday in the office. While room for desks may reduce there will be a bigger demand for meeting rooms.

Companies will not want young sales people.meeting customers in there dingy two bed apartment.

But wouldn't that mean that all the small businesses (e.g. shops, restaurants, pubs etc.) that are reliant on the workers in these office spaces see a reduction in 'potential' customers in the order of 30% - 50%.

If the footfall on Grafton Street fell permanently by 30% - 50%, I'm sure the retailers on that street would start to demand significant reductions in rent.

This would impact rental yields and then the capital values of those premises. That then impacts on the ability of those landlords to meet any loan repayments on those properties or if it's a pension fund, it's ability to meet their obligations to their pension fund holders.

JJJackal · 15-08-2020 12:31pm

PropQueries wrote: »

But wouldn't that mean that all the small businesses (e.g. shops, restaurants, pubs etc.) that are reliant on the workers in these office spaces see a reduction in 'potential' customers in the order of 30% - 50%.

If the footfall on Grafton Street fell permanently by 30% - 50%, I'm sure the retailers on that street would start to demand significant reductions in rent.

This would impact rental yields and then the capital values of those premises. That then impacts on the ability of those landlords to meet any loan repayments on those properties or if it's a pension fund, it's ability to meet their obligations to their pension fund holders.

The converse is that the restaurants where people live (who now wfh) will see increase demand so prices of premises will increase peripherally while decreasing centrally

Bass Reeves · 15-08-2020 12:33pm

PropQueries wrote: »

But wouldn't that mean that all the small businesses (e.g. shops, restaurants, pubs etc.) that are reliant on the workers in these office spaces see a reduction in 'potential' customers in the order of 30% - 50%.

If the footfall on Grafton Street fell permanently by 30% - 50%, I'm sure the retailers on that street would start to demand significant reductions in rent.

This would impact rental yields and then the capital values of those premises. That then impacts on the ability of those landlords to meet any loan repayments on those properties or if it's a pension fund, it's ability to meet their obligations to their pension fund holders.

Yes it may during the day, but workers working from home may start earlier in the morning finish earlier and go go into town early in the next evening to mix socially. Workers may have more spending power due to less travel expenses. There day in the office may be only 3-5 hours with a few hours shopping in town. To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.
Neither did I say there would not be reductions in rent yields but rather that the reduction in space for commercial activities in the city center may not be as large as many think

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 12:41pm

JJJackal wrote: »

The converse is that the restaurants where people live (who now wfh) will see increase demand so prices of premises will increase peripherally while decreasing centrally

That's true. But I think a lot of the discretionary spend in the City is from a spur of the moment decision e.g. after work drinks, lunch with the team etc. In relation to retailers, the main benefit of shopping in a city is a lot of local shops in close proximity to each other so you can browse many different products fairly quickly and choose which one to buy.

If more people are WFH, they're more likely to order any products they require through Amazon etc. than increase their spending in their local e.g. handbag or perfume shop.

Bass Reeves · 15-08-2020 1:50pm

PropQueries wrote: »

That's true. But I think a lot of the discretionary spend in the City is from a spur of the moment decision e.g. after work drinks, lunch with the team etc. In relation to retailers, the main benefit of shopping in a city is a lot of local shops in close proximity to each other so you can browse many different products fairly quickly and choose which one to buy.

If more people are WFH, they're more likely to order any products they require through Amazon etc. than increase their spending in their local e.g. handbag or perfume shop.

Clothes etc tend to be more browse and spend, white goods tend to be more focused on value and Amazon is more electronic and small good's

Part of the attraction of clothes online is the ability with established shops to return free if charge to the local store. Therefore you can order 3-4 items of different sizes or similar types and drop back the ones you do not want. These shops live with the return costs With complete online shopping return costs are a factor that have to be allowed for by the consumer.

WFH will require more living space. A young couple if both are working from home will no longer be happy with a one bed apartment with a single dining/living space. Dermot Bannon's open plan designs will be a thing of the past. If you are on the phone to a customer or manager, your partner/flatmate having a chat and going through the gory details with a workmate on the phone about the last night out will be an issue.

More space equals more costs. The high flying legal eagle may be happy to work from home 1-2 days a week but he still want his office when he goes in. No hotdesking for him

An Ri rua · 15-08-2020 2:11pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Clothes etc tend to be more browse and spend, white goods tend to be more focused on value and Amazon is more electronic and small good's

Part of the attraction of clothes online is the ability with established shops to return free if charge to the local store. Therefore you can order 3-4 items of different sizes or similar types and drop back the ones you do not want. These shops live with the return costs With complete online shopping return costs are a factor that have to be allowed for by the consumer.

WFH will require more living space. A young couple if both are working from home will no longer be happy with a one bed apartment with a single dining/living space. Dermot Bannon's open plan designs will be a thing of the past. If you are on the phone to a customer or manager, your partner/flatmate having a chat and going through the gory details with a workmate on the phone about the last night out will be an issue.

More space equals more costs. The high flying legal eagle may be happy to work from home 1-2 days a week but he still want his office when he goes in. No hotdesking for him

GDPR is also an issue. Anyone handling sensitive data needs the space that its held in fully documented. Hotdesking would be likely a no-no.

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 2:24pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Clothes etc tend to be more browse and spend, white goods tend to be more focused on value and Amazon is more electronic and small good's

Part of the attraction of clothes online is the ability with established shops to return free if charge to the local store. Therefore you can order 3-4 items of different sizes or similar types and drop back the ones you do not want. These shops live with the return costs With complete online shopping return costs are a factor that have to be allowed for by the consumer.

WFH will require more living space. A young couple if both are working from home will no longer be happy with a one bed apartment with a single dining/living space. Dermot Bannon's open plan designs will be a thing of the past. If you are on the phone to a customer or manager, your partner/flatmate having a chat and going through the gory details with a workmate on the phone about the last night out will be an issue.

More space equals more costs. The high flying legal eagle may be happy to work from home 1-2 days a week but he still want his office when he goes in. No hotdesking for him

All good points. But even if there's only a 10% permanent drop in the daily footfall, that impacts the value of all properties in the city, office, retail etc.

More importantly, for my perspective anyway, the banks and pension funds seem to have significant funds invested in this space and I'm just concerned for my pension, as I don't see suburban properties making up the shortfall.

Even if suburban properties increased in value, the pension funds probably don't have the equity in their existing city centre property portfolios to gear up and invest in them. Instead of investing in more property, they're more likely to be taking losses in the near future as they will probably need to offload their prime properties to meet redemption requests etc.

If all pension funds are in a similar situation and the banks are not in a position to lend, who will take them? Maybe the so-called vulture funds, but I read that many of them are already looking to get out of this space. Even if they did enter, the pension funds and banks will most likely take a significant hit either way.

For example, back in January, Aviva stopped investors from taking money out of their Irish property funds with a "combined value of €940 million", and that was pre-covid:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aviva-stops-investors-from-taking-money-out-of-irish-property-funds-1.4157574#:~:text=Aviva%20Life%20%26%20Pensions%20Ireland%20moved,investor%20seeking%20their%20money%20back

Bass Reeves · 15-08-2020 2:27pm

An Ri rua wrote: »

GDPR is also an issue. Anyone handling sensitive data needs the space that its held in fully documented. Hotdesking would be likely a no-no.

It's a bit like when computers were first being put into offices, all the talk was the end of printers and paper documents. Now at a presentation everybody gets a hard copy of the presentation. 30 years ago everybody bought a notebook and biro to take down details

Bass Reeves · 15-08-2020 3:16pm

PropQueries wrote: »

All good points. But even if there's only a 10% permanent drop in the daily footfall, that impacts the value of all properties in the city, office, retail etc.

More importantly, for my perspective anyway, the banks and pension funds seem to have significant funds invested in this space and I'm just concerned for my pension, as I don't see suburban properties making up the shortfall.

Even if suburban properties increased in value, the pension funds probably don't have the equity in their existing city centre property portfolios to gear up and invest in them. Instead of investing in more property, they're more likely to be taking losses in the near future as they will probably need to offload their prime properties to meet redemption requests etc.

If all pension funds are in a similar situation and the banks are not in a position to lend, who will take them? Maybe the so-called vulture funds, but I read that many of them are already looking to get out of this space. Even if they did enter, the pension funds and banks will most likely take a significant hit either way.

For example, back in January, Aviva stopped investors from taking money out of their Irish property funds with a "combined value of €940 million", and that was pre-covid:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aviva-stops-investors-from-taking-money-out-of-irish-property-funds-1.4157574#:~:text=Aviva%20Life%20%26%20Pensions%20Ireland%20moved,investor%20seeking%20their%20money%20back

The reason IL and other property funds closed withdrawal's was a prices were quite strong and assets were leaverged withdrawal's was going to the encompass more leaverging to pay for withdrawals.

This was one of the reasons for the 2007-12 property busts there was a lot of highly leaverged funds which when pressure came on had to be hand d back to the banks.Everything is cyclical to am an extent. If outflows are exceedingly inflows I. Property you have to take action, it much the same with in any fund.

Now may be a bad time to change the nature of you.pension fundost factors are factored in already

mcsean2163 · 15-08-2020 3:32pm

I've been hoping to find commercial space in Dublin for an office/ workshop and there's little or nothing available. Does anyone know when all this cheap office space is going to hit the market that McWilliams is talking about?

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset-1.4329527?mode=amp

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 3:45pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The reason IL and other property funds closed withdrawal's was a prices were quite strong and assets were leaverged withdrawal's was going to the encompass more leaverging to pay for withdrawals.

This was one of the reasons for the 2007-12 property busts there was a lot of highly leaverged funds which when pressure came on had to be hand d back to the banks.Everything is cyclical to am an extent. If outflows are exceedingly inflows I. Property you have to take action, it much the same with in any fund.

Now may be a bad time to change the nature of you.pension fundost factors are factored in already

Good point. It probably is a bad time to change the nature of a pension fund.

But, if this is a fundamental shift in the nature of the economy and WFH does become a significant component of the workplace in the near to medium term, would it be like sticking with the investment in the horse and cart company just as Henry Ford is revving up production of the Model T?

Is there more to lose by sticking with a pension fund that has a significant percentage of its investments in such an asset class or getting out now and taking that loss instead of a potential wipeout in the medium term?

The Belly · 15-08-2020 3:53pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point. It probably is a bad time to change the nature of a pension fund.

But, if this is a fundamental shift in the nature of the economy and WFH does become a significant component of the workplace in the near to medium term, would it be like sticking with the investment in the horse and cart company just as Henry Ford is revving up production of the Model T?

Is there more to lose by sticking with a pension fund that has a significant percentage of its investments in such an asset class or getting out now and taking that loss instead of a potential wipeout in the medium term?

ILAC irish life canada life what ever the call themselves theses days are brutal fund managers. Sh1t returns high charges with a smile.

Taking your losses now if history is anything to go by means you avoid the worst of it. Look at Irish equity funds back in the day there is some pension funds who are still not back to where they were in 2007.

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 4:31pm

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I've been hoping to find commercial space in Dublin for an office/ workshop and there's little or nothing available. Does anyone know when all this cheap office space is going to hit the market that McWilliams is talking about?

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset-1.4329527?mode=amp

Try down the IFSC. There is nothing but small empty retail / office spaces there for the past 10 years. I think the problem is that if the owner is highly leveraged or is using that property as security for another loan, they can't reduce the asking rent as then they would crystallize a loss on the value of their investment property.

My understanding is that most investment properties are valued at their rental yield (real or perceived). If they reduce the rent, the value of the investment property automatically drops and they may be breaking loan covenants etc. It's kind of a pretend and extend game played by the banks and pension funds. They would rather keep them empty and pretend the value on their books is the real world value.

I'm not sure they can keep this game going forever, kind of like all those empty apartments in Ballsbridge with an asking rent of €4,000 a month but mostly empty. Maybe this Covid thing will force them to open up about the true value of their investment properties?

The Belly · 15-08-2020 4:33pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Try down the IFSC. There is nothing but small empty retail / office spaces there for the past 10 years. I think the problem is that if the owner is highly leveraged or is using that property as security for another loan, they can't reduce the asking rent as then they would crystallize a loss on the value of their investment property.

My understanding is that most investment properties are valued at their rental yield (real or perceived). If they reduce the rent, the value of the investment property automatically drops and they may be breaking loan covenants etc. It's kind of a pretend and extend game played by the banks and pension funds. They would rather keep them empty and pretend the value on their books is the real world value.

I'm not sure they can keep this game going forever, kind of like all those empty apartments in Ballsbridge with an asking rent of €4,000 a month but mostly empty. Maybe this Covid thing will force them to open up about the true value of their investment properties?

in a nutshell fake till you make it. Look at the value of companies. In the past it was earning now is gone hairwire.

JJJackal · 15-08-2020 4:36pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Try down the IFSC. There is nothing but small empty retail / office spaces there for the past 10 years. I think the problem is that if the owner is highly leveraged or is using that property as security for another loan, they can't reduce the asking rent as then they would crystallize a loss on the value of their investment property.

My understanding is that most investment properties are valued at their rental yield (real or perceived). If they reduce the rent, the value of the investment property automatically drops and they may be breaking loan covenants etc. It's kind of a pretend and extend game played by the banks and pension funds. They would rather keep them empty and pretend the value on their books is the real world value.

I'm not sure they can keep this game going forever, kind of like all those empty apartments in Ballsbridge with an asking rent of €4,000 a month but mostly empty. Maybe this Covid thing will force them to open up about the true value of their investment properties?

There are currently 22 apartments in Ballsbridge on daft for 4000 plus.

Some are like 15,000 which makes me think that there is something very different about some of them! There wont me alot of demand for some of these even at the best of times

smellyoldboot · 15-08-2020 4:37pm

Saving the shekels right now and can't wait for the arse to fall out of the end of this market. There's only so long FFG can artificially prop it up

The Belly · 15-08-2020 4:38pm

JJJackal wrote: »

There are currently 22 apartments in Ballsbridge on daft for 4000 plus.

Some are like 15,000 which makes me think that there is something very different about some of them! There wont me alot of demand for some of these even at the best of times

Saw one for 10k a rental. Its been there for maybe 10 months. Over time we may see the day when its 5k

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 4:41pm

JJJackal wrote: »

There are currently 22 apartments in Ballsbridge on daft for 4000 plus.

Some are like 15,000 which makes me think that there is something very different about some of them! There wont me alot of demand for some of these even at the best of times

There's probably far more than 22 apartments asking in that price range. For example, if there are 20 two-beds for rent in the one block, they only advertise one on Daft as they're all similar, but there's really 20 for rent.

The Belly · 15-08-2020 4:41pm

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Saving the shekels right now and can't wait for the arse to fall out of the end of this market. There's only so long FFG can artificially prop it up

Will there be bargains. Yes. But be careful what you wish every thing falls in together. Watch the banks.

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 4:53pm

PropQueries wrote: »

There's probably far more than 22 apartments asking in that price range. For example, if there are 20 two-beds for rent in the one block, they only advertise one on Daft as they're all similar, but there's really 20 for rent.

The rentals on Daft haven't been a reliable guide of the true supply for the past few years due to the build-to-rent companies only advertising one of each specific unit, even though there may be another 10 similar units available to rent.

Also, many people these days source rental accommodation through watsapp, facebook groups etc., so the Daft reports may be under-counting the true supply by at least a 1,000 units a month.

The Belly · 15-08-2020 4:58pm

PropQueries wrote: »

The rentals on Daft haven't been a reliable guide of the true supply for the past few years due to the build-to-rent companies only advertising one of each specific unit, even though there may be another 10 similar units available to rent.

Also, many people these days source rental accommodation through watsapp, facebook groups etc., so the Daft reports may be under-counting the true supply by at least a 1,000 units a month.

real estate agent wil always be in a suit promising the world but in reality behind it the emperor has no clothes just need to wait.

tigger123 · 15-08-2020 5:22pm

PropQueries wrote: »

The rentals on Daft haven't been a reliable guide of the true supply for the past few years due to the build-to-rent companies only advertising one of each specific unit, even though there may be another 10 similar units available to rent.

Also, many people these days source rental accommodation through watsapp, facebook groups etc., so the Daft reports may be under-counting the true supply by at least a 1,000 units a month.

Where are you getting the "1,000 units a month" figure from?

Hubertj · 15-08-2020 5:37pm

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I've been hoping to find commercial space in Dublin for an office/ workshop and there's little or nothing available. Does anyone know when all this cheap office space is going to hit the market that McWilliams is talking about?

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset-1.4329527?mode=amp

I presume that could be next year as government unwinds stimulus and we see what companies are able to keep going....good luck with it whatever your plans are.

JJJackal · 15-08-2020 5:57pm

PropQueries wrote: »

There's probably far more than 22 apartments asking in that price range. For example, if there are 20 two-beds for rent in the one block, they only advertise one on Daft as they're all similar, but there's really 20 for rent.

These are the numbers that are definitely available.

On further inspection 2 properties appear to be hotel rooms in the Intercontinental

Number 1 Residences has 5 properties (these are the extremely expensive ones) - the link to their website appears broken. There maybe more here for sure

Every other property is likely a one off rental

JJJackal · 15-08-2020 5:58pm

PropQueries wrote: »

The rentals on Daft haven't been a reliable guide of the true supply for the past few years due to the build-to-rent companies only advertising one of each specific unit, even though there may be another 10 similar units available to rent.

Also, many people these days source rental accommodation through watsapp, facebook groups etc., so the Daft reports may be under-counting the true supply by at least a 1,000 units a month.

Where is the evidence of 1,000?

People have always advertised places to rent through work, message boards etc.
People often look for friends to share or take over or colleagues. This is not new

The Belly · 15-08-2020 5:58pm

JJJackal wrote: »

These are the numbers that are definitely available.

On further inspection 2 properties appear to be hotel rooms in the Intercontinental

Number 1 Residences has 5 properties (these are the extremely expensive ones) - the link to their website appears broken. There maybe more here for sure

Every other property is likely a one off rental

intercontinental which was the 4 seasons is probably under pressure.

JJJackal · 15-08-2020 6:01pm

The Belly wrote: »

intercontinental which was the 4 seasons is probably under pressure.

Its not particularly full tonight as I tried to book a room to see. I could book >76 rooms

Villa05 · 15-08-2020 6:09pm

tigger123 wrote:

That 250k isnt going to change much, recession or not. The people hoarding the land aren't going to bother selling it or developing on it until the margins are there to make it worthwhile.

Mechanisms are available to deter land hoarding

PropQueries wrote:

According the latest the real cost of building a home from the SCSI, it costs c. â‚¬180,000 to build a 114 sq.m. house in Dublin, including all site development costs:

Meanwhile the state is signing off on 750,000 euro long term leases

fliball123 wrote:

Well where else will they get a guaranteed 6-8% ROI backed by the government. I think its a no brainier to have a rock solid return ongoing with other risk strategies as well as our government looking after the maintenance, can you show me somewhere else giving back the same return (state guaranteed)

Are you comfortable with the Irish government gifting your tax money to these private firms who pay no tax of note when there are far cheaper potentially profitable options available to the state

fliball123 wrote:

Remember the government are not in for a profit they are looking to house people and according to all the lefties there currently is not enough houses either for sale or rent so I cant see them dropping anything any time soon as long as the lefties keep up the emotional blackmail

It's a bit of a misnomer to say only lefties are looking for housing action. Google and the other Fanngs and multi nationals have been calling for action for some time. They know are the drivers of WFH in an attempt to counteract the lack of action by the state

fliball123 wrote:

We have been over 200 billion in debt since 2010/11 and no one has stopped lending us money we are now getting it at a much lower rate and when money dries up then the lads just print more which is currently happening

We have shown that we will pass our debts as a result of our screw ups onto our children, look at Italy to see our future. They are viewed as one of the PIGS, while in truth they have been running a balanced budget for over a decade. Its the interest on their debt that is crippling them

Our gift to our children if current goverent policy is continued

fliball123 wrote:

Do these guys not have to pay for electricity?

Data centres should only be approved where the applicant builds a renewable power source to meet the requirements of the data centre

PropQueries wrote:

That's true. The government seems to think all us oldies want our homes to keep increasing for ever. The problem is that our generation (even the ones without kids) are going to pay for it, one way or the other. For example, I read an article recently where the report recommended increasing the pension age to 75.

MacronvFrugals wrote:

Remember i said about a guy i knew who borrowed off his parents an extra 20k to secure a deal on a house him and his partner were looking at to get it through quickly while mortgage approval was available, well he got notice yesterday that those rumored job loses will include him in the next month or so but the mortgage is sealed and they got the keys recently.

ebayissues wrote:

As I've been told over and over on this thread, it's better to be jobless in your own house than being jobless whilst renting.

schmittel wrote:

Having let it get this bad it is actually a perfect rational decision for people to say feck it, if you can't beat them join them, we'll take the mortgage, worst case scenario is we'll just stop paying it and sure if we play the game the house will not be repossessed.

Agreed, however the endgame is the mother of all crashes when it does come. We are experts at creating systems that make a bad situation explosive

Hubertj wrote:

If employment levels are high why has productivity fallen so much.

Commercial as opposed to resedintial

Pelezico wrote:

There must be a lot of rejections.

Approval in principle allows you to bid and drive up price. If you loose there is no need to to proceed to the phase where drawdown is refused

fliball123 wrote:

then why have prices not dropped? We have seen demand/access to credit coming down? If you dont think supply is the answer then you seriously need to back to economics class.

Reduced sales but at a higher price level means prices in theory do not fall

That's me done for the week. Enjoy

The Belly · 15-08-2020 8:19pm

JJJackal wrote: »

Its not particularly full tonight as I tried to book a room to see. I could book >76 rooms

covid rules id say

floors closed i actually know it very well nice hotel

Iceman29 · 15-08-2020 10:45pm

brisan wrote: »

Well according to the FED it’s the worst recession since the crash of 1920
The central Bank of England is saying it will be the worst recession in 300 years
The Irish Central Bank says the worst recession since the foundation of the state
The ECB saying the worst recession in peacetime in the last 100 years
Someone somewhere is doing the maths and is either totally off the mark or bang on the money.

100%.... I just can't understand that people
seem to forget this is by far the biggest thing we'll ever see in our lifetime. I was on staycation there last week and some of the towns were reasonably busy..... Until it started to drizzle, then all hell broke lose. Nobody in cafes/shops/pubs etc due to social distancing. Some of these places were doing OK while the sun shines but unfortunately after Sept in Ireland it rains alot. I can see alot more empty shop fronts very very soon. The city/towns we know it have finished unfortunately and its game over for so many businesses

Bass Reeves · 15-08-2020 11:14pm

Iceman29 wrote: »

100%.... I just can't understand that people
seem to forget this is by far the biggest thing we'll ever see in our lifetime. I was on staycation there last week and some of the towns were reasonably busy..... Until it started to drizzle, then all hell broke lose. Nobody in cafes/shops/pubs etc due to social distancing. Some of these places were doing OK while the sun shines but unfortunately after Sept in Ireland it rains alot. I can see alot more empty shop fronts very very soon. The city/towns we know it have finished unfortunately and its game over for so many businesses

and it not going to effect me so I can buy a house:rolleyes:

Iceman29 · 15-08-2020 11:17pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

and it not going to effect me so I can buy a house:rolleyes:

It'll effect everyone everyone in one shape or another but Dublin City is dead and judging from the towns I've visited they're in massive trouble and I'd imagine the banks are going to be taking a big hit then.

Genuinely can see alot of trouble coming down the tracks

cubatahavana · 15-08-2020 11:47pm

City center will take a hit, especially retail, but to say it is dead is an overstatement. A vaccine will come and things will improve. Not all sectors will be equally affected. Look at the likes of Facebook with all the increased activity. Healthcare services such as doctors, consultants, nurses, hospital and pharmacies will continue to be indispensable.

Banks will continue to operate, pubs, restaurants and retail will continue to operate as well, but only after the vaccine they’ll be able to return to normal. Some will be closed as they won’t survive and good people will lose their jobs.

This doesn’t mean that everyone will be affected the same way. Some people are still able to afford buying a home.

The Belly · 15-08-2020 11:51pm

cubatahavana wrote: »

City center will take a hit, especially retail, but to say it is dead is an overstatement. A vaccine will come and things will improve. Not all sectors will be equally affected. Look at the likes of Facebook with all the increased activity. Healthcare services such as doctors, consultants, nurses, hospital and pharmacies will continue to be indispensable.

Banks will continue to operate, pubs, restaurants and retail will continue to operate as well, but only after the vaccine they’ll be able to return to normal. Some will be closed as they won’t survive and good people will lose their jobs.

This doesn’t mean that everyone will be affected the same way. Some people are still able to afford buying a home.

I like your positivity. But it wont work like that.

Iceman29 · 16-08-2020 12:06am

cubatahavana wrote: »

City center will take a hit, especially retail, but to say it is dead is an overstatement. A vaccine will come and things will improve. Not all sectors will be equally affected. Look at the likes of Facebook with all the increased activity. Healthcare services such as doctors, consultants, nurses, hospital and pharmacies will continue to be indispensable.

Banks will continue to operate, pubs, restaurants and retail will continue to operate as well, but only after the vaccine they’ll be able to return to normal. Some will be closed as they won’t survive and good people will lose their jobs.

This doesn’t mean that everyone will be affected the same way. Some people are still able to afford buying a home.

City Centre is completely dead in my opinion and also other people who run restaurants /pubs. When were you in there last and what time of the day?

Agree, some jobs will be safe obviously but that's few and far between. A vaccine is a long way away unfortunately. Joe bloggs who has opened a cafe in town can't afford to wait around for the vaccine or for good sunny weather. Rents are sky high in Dublin, wages are expensive, and their organic coffee beans that they've been selling don't come cheap too along with light, heat, insurance etc etc.

This all leads to suppliers getting burnt, rent not paid and shops closing down. People losing their jobs, and people who took a punt on a business declaring bankrupt etc. Banks of course continue to loan but to very few I feel when the **** hits the fan. Once biten twice shy and all that.
Pubs restaurants and retail (not to mention all the companies on the Covid payments) will all take massive massive hits. Very few will survive without massive help but id be thinking the money will dry up very soon.

The Belly · 16-08-2020 12:11am

Iceman29 wrote: »

City Centre is completely dead in my opinion and also other people who run restaurants /pubs. When were you in there last and what time of the day?

Agree, some jobs will be safe obviously but that's few and far between. A vaccine is a long way away unfortunately. Joe bloggs who has opened a cafe in town can't afford to wait around for the vaccine or for good sunny weather. Rents are sky high in Dublin, wages are expensive, and their organic coffee beans that they've been selling don't come cheap too along with light, heat, insurance etc etc.

This all leads to suppliers getting burnt, rent not paid and shops closing down. People losing their jobs, and people who took a punt on a business declaring bankrupt etc. Banks of course continue to loan but to very few I feel when the **** hits the fan. Once biten twice shy and all that.
Pubs restaurants and retail (not to mention all the companies on the Covid payments) will all take massive massive hits. Very few will survive without massive help but id be thinking the money will dry up very soon.

Sums it up really and forget the Banks car loan yes business loan no

Cyrus · 16-08-2020 7:26am

Iceman29 wrote: »

City Centre is completely dead in my opinion and also other people who run restaurants /pubs. When were you in there last and what time of the day?

Agree, some jobs will be safe obviously but that's few and far between. A vaccine is a long way away unfortunately. Joe bloggs who has opened a cafe in town can't afford to wait around for the vaccine or for good sunny weather. Rents are sky high in Dublin, wages are expensive, and their organic coffee beans that they've been selling don't come cheap too along with light, heat, insurance etc etc.

This all leads to suppliers getting burnt, rent not paid and shops closing down. People losing their jobs, and people who took a punt on a business declaring bankrupt etc. Banks of course continue to loan but to very few I feel when the **** hits the fan. Once biten twice shy and all that.
Pubs restaurants and retail (not to mention all the companies on the Covid payments) will all take massive massive hits. Very few will survive without massive help but id be thinking the money will dry up very soon.

If you take your opinion to it’s logical conclusion the world is over basically . Is that what you think is going to happen ? If there is no vaccine is that it ?

Bass Reeves · 16-08-2020 8:59am

People posting that this is the biggest recession since 1928 or biggest in history or biggest in last 40-50 years are forgetting about the nature of it. They are also forget about government's reactions to it.

First off technically it not a recession yet and it may never be one. It was a sharp downturn for 90 days but the economy has probably grown in this quarter.

The falloff in economic output was as shary as 1928 or an time in history but recovery is sharp. With the exception of pubs and restaurants most economic activities are returning to some level of output.

The other factor is governments reaction. The rich western countries are pumping money into the economy the EU is pumping 750 billion and on top of that EU states are pumping in money themselves. Ireland will pump 7-10 billion into the economy.

These financial weapons were not used in 1928

Pelezico · 16-08-2020 9:27am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

People posting that this is the biggest recession since 1928 or biggest in history or biggest in last 40-50 years are forgetting about the nature of it. They are also forget about government's reactions to it.

First off technically it not a recession yet and it may never be one. It was a sharp downturn for 90 days but the economy has probably grown in this quarter.

The falloff in economic output was as shary as 1928 or an time in history but recovery is sharp. With the exception of pubs and restaurants most economic activities are returning to some level of output.

The other factor is governments reaction. The rich western countries are pumping money into the economy the EU is pumping 750 billion and on top of that EU states are pumping in money themselves. Ireland will pump 7-10 billion into the economy.

These financial weapons were not used in 1928

With the exception of pubs, restaurants, retail, travel and tourism, entertainment, meat production, commercial property, aircraft leasing, education sector....and.probably plenty of others.

Shure it will be fine lads.

Iceman29 · 16-08-2020 10:03am

Cyrus wrote: »

If you take your opinion to it’s logical conclusion the world is over basically . Is that what you think is going to happen ? If there is no vaccine is that it ?

Is that what I said Cyrus? You seem to read people's posts and go off on your own tangent. Maybe read it a few times and see if you understand what was said before you hit the reply button.

I'm sure life will go on for alot but the majority of businesses are done with that are barely keeping their head above water.

Iceman29 · 16-08-2020 10:07am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

People posting that this is the biggest recession since 1928 or biggest in history or biggest in last 40-50 years are forgetting about the nature of it. They are also forget about government's reactions to it.

First off technically it not a recession yet and it may never be one. It was a sharp downturn for 90 days but the economy has probably grown in this quarter.

The falloff in economic output was as shary as 1928 or an time in history but recovery is sharp. With the exception of pubs and restaurants most economic activities are returning to some level of output.

The other factor is governments reaction. The rich western countries are pumping money into the economy the EU is pumping 750 billion and on top of that EU states are pumping in money themselves. Ireland will pump 7-10 billion into the economy.

These financial weapons were not used in 1928

Sweet! We are grand so. We have someone on boards that knows more than all the heads of all the major economies who are suggesting major trouble but it's grand Bass Reeves knows the truth.

Maybe Bass Reeves should contact all the heads of the economies and suggest that they have financial weapons to use before they suggested such extreme recessions.....

smurgen · 16-08-2020 10:09am

Cyrus wrote: »

If you take your opinion to it’s logical conclusion the world is over basically . Is that what you think is going to happen ? If there is no vaccine is that it ?

Capitalism is changed now indefinitely. I said it before and I'll say it again.house prices will fall here in the short , medium and long run. My outlook on house prices is bearish. I'm trying to manage costs to be as low as possible now. When I buy I think prices will continue to fall. We've gone off a cliff and momentum is carrying us forward. Soon gravity will kick in.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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