Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

hometruths · 14-08-2020 7:10pm

Reversal wrote: »

But why is the data represented in this at odds with the residential property price index. The data on your link shows all time high prices every month this year. The CSO figures clearly show gradually falling prices since 2018.

I'll stick with the CSO figures as apposed to unverified stats often posted here by vest interests.

Some of the geniuses on here are not convinced by the accuracy of CSO data.

fliball123 · 14-08-2020 7:12pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Like a previous poster said, the CSO numbers paint a different story with slight declines since 2018.

The PPR is right up until the end of July CSO I belive is only up till May I could be wrong about that, there was a wobble in May but prices have bounced back up in June and July but like I say when people get the info they can start attacking where the info is coming from and then have the neck to start bringing in stats that are over 2 months out of date and burying their head in the sand. Its no skin of my nose if you don't want to hear the truth pal but like I say in July the median price was higher than any price for a monthly average in 2018.

JJJackal · 14-08-2020 7:13pm

Reversal wrote: »

But why is the data represented in this at odds with the residential property price index. The data on your link shows all time high prices every month this year. The CSO figures clearly show gradually falling prices since 2018.

I'll stick with the CSO figures as apposed to unverified stats often posted here by vest interests.

National:
In January 2018 the RPPI was 126.5; in May 2020 it was 134.1

Dublin:
In January 2018 the RPPI was 121.8; in May 2020 it was 124.1

National:
In January 2018 the RPPI was 131.3; in May 2020 it was 145

You can of course pick points that are the absolute peak which will show a decline. Looking at the graphs they look stable enough for 2 years

fliball123 · 14-08-2020 7:14pm

schmittel wrote: »

Some of the geniuses on here are not convinced by the accuracy of CSO data.

I dont doubt that its wrong its just it has not got June and July's data sets in it and both months show prices increased in both months

L1011 · 14-08-2020 7:15pm

fliball123 - if you cannot make posts a civil and non-heated manner, don't post at all. Multiple of your posts are unacceptable. I have only infracted one particularly unacceptable post - going through them one by one would be vastly worse for you.

Mic 1972 · 14-08-2020 7:33pm

Pelezico wrote: »

I am not sure what you have proved.

I just looked up a price fall on myhome a few minutes ago.

Ede*nmore Avenue...Raheny. looks like a loss to me.

one single property reducing asking price
that's your evidence of prices falling?

fliball123 · 14-08-2020 7:49pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

one single property reducing asking price
that's your evidence of prices falling?

Ah i have tried Mc I showed them the PPR dataset which shows that May prices dropped but in June and July they rebounded above 2018 prices but alas they refuse to look at the most up to date data set which is not the CSO, I wonder what their excuse will be when the next CSO report comes out and shows that prices rebounded in the Summer months.

Hubertj · 14-08-2020 7:58pm

schmittel wrote: »

Some of the geniuses on here are not convinced by the accuracy of CSO data.

Some of the geniuses on here Think there isn’t a housing shortage.

Hubertj · 14-08-2020 8:03pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Ah i have tried Mc I showed them the PPR dataset which shows that May prices dropped but in June and July they rebounded above 2018 prices but alas they refuse to look at the most up to date data set which is not the CSO, I wonder what their excuse will be when the next CSO report comes out and shows that prices rebounded in the Summer months.

I do think the reduced volumes over the last few months, while maintaining price levels, do have the possibility to skew trends. Under current situation how relevant is YoY for March 2020 onwards? So many variables

fliball123 · 14-08-2020 8:11pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I do think the reduced volumes over the last few months, while maintaining price levels, do have the possibility to skew trends. Under current situation how relevant is YoY for March 2020 onwards? So many variables

Maybe Hubert but their is a difference to peoples approach. I don't think prices are going to fall by more than 2-5% and it may happen in the next 6 months (as you say lots of variables such as world economy, brexit, corona, etc) but I would never tell anyone to not buy now because they may save money or to sell now before people lose too much..On the other side if I thought prices were going to go up I would never tell them to buy or sell either. But you can bet there has been people on here who would of bought months ago only for the army of armchair "price drop wanters" spinning a yarn that the market has collapsed and that only fools would buy now and some people have put off buying only to see that property that they were going to buy taken by someone else.

Pelezico · 14-08-2020 8:37pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe Hubert but their is a difference to peoples approach. I don't think prices are going to fall by more than 2-5% and it may happen in the next 6 months (as you say lots of variables such as world economy, brexit, corona, etc) but I would never tell anyone to not buy now because they may save money or to sell now before people lose too much..On the other side if I thought prices were going to go up I would never tell them to buy or sell either. But you can bet there has been people on here who would of bought months ago only for the army of armchair "price drop wanters" spinning a yarn that the market has collapsed and that only fools would buy now and some people have put off buying only to see that property that they were going to buy taken by someone else.

We are all entitled to our opinions. I am only too pleased that my son was gazumped in February.

What he sees convinces him.that it was a blessing in disguise.

Mic 1972 · 14-08-2020 8:40pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I do think the reduced volumes over the last few months, while maintaining price levels, do have the possibility to skew trends. Under current situation how relevant is YoY for March 2020 onwards? So many variables

low volumes = worse stats
that's for sure, but we can only deal with what data is available at the moment

it's still interesting to observe how unmovable sale prices have remained over the last 6 months.
All things that are seen as reasons for price fall have materialized and still no effect on prices.
Recession, jobs lost, market uncertainly, rent drops.

I'm seeing same properties coming back onto the market after being gone for months, and they are still going for the same asking price
We are property hoarders in this countries

fliball123 · 14-08-2020 8:42pm

Pelezico wrote: »

We are all entitled to our opinions. I am only too pleased that my son was gazumped in February.

What he sees convinces him.that it was a blessing in disguise.

You sure are but you cant come on and ignore facts when they are put in front of you, your basing your stance that prices are back to 2018 levels on a small drop back in May and it has been pointed out that Jun and July figures (not in the CSO) that prices have rebounded.

Look all sh1t aside I hope it works out for your son I hope he finds a gaff he can afford and is happy he is lucky he can stay with you and save but the sad reality is the majority would not have that luxury

Hubertj · 14-08-2020 9:07pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe Hubert but their is a difference to peoples approach. I don't think prices are going to fall by more than 2-5% and it may happen in the next 6 months (as you say lots of variables such as world economy, brexit, corona, etc) but I would never tell anyone to not buy now because they may save money or to sell now before people lose too much..On the other side if I thought prices were going to go up I would never tell them to buy or sell either. But you can bet there has been people on here who would of bought months ago only for the army of armchair "price drop wanters" spinning a yarn that the market has collapsed and that only fools would buy now and some people have put off buying only to see that property that they were going to buy taken by someone else.

You’d want to be some loser taking advice of randomers on the internet about the largest purchase of your life.

Vikings · 14-08-2020 9:14pm

Pelezico wrote: »

We are all entitled to our opinions. I am only too pleased that my son was gazumped in February.

What he sees convinces him.that it was a blessing in disguise.

If prices were guaranteed to drop 1% per year for the next 30 years, at what point would you be recommending your son leave the nest and buy somewhere of his own? Genuine question here.

Pelezico · 14-08-2020 9:18pm

Vikings wrote: »

If prices were guaranteed to drop 1% per year for the next 30 years, at what point would you be recommending your son leave the nest and buy somewhere of his own? Genuine question here.

If a cow had balls it would be a bull. He is 27 years old...hardly a middle aged man.

fliball123 · 14-08-2020 10:46pm

Hubertj wrote: »

You’d want to be some loser taking advice of randomers on the internet about the largest purchase of your life.

Not saying I did but there are people who will look at resources like this and see what way the wind is blowing

christin · 14-08-2020 11:48pm

Interesting article: Boom followed by a bust? Housing market pick-up ‘may be short-lived’

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/world-news/boom-followed-by-a-bust-housing-market-pick-up-may-be-short-lived-39445680.html

OwlsZat · 15-08-2020 12:05am

christin wrote: »

Interesting article: Boom followed by a bust? Housing market pick-up ‘may be short-lived’

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/world-news/boom-followed-by-a-bust-housing-market-pick-up-may-be-short-lived-39445680.html

Theres no sign of a boom here... so obviously no bust then either...

Browney7 · 15-08-2020 12:27am

JJJackal wrote: »

National:
In January 2018 the RPPI was 126.5; in May 2020 it was 134.1

Dublin:
In January 2018 the RPPI was 121.8; in May 2020 it was 124.1

National:
In January 2018 the RPPI was 131.3; in May 2020 it was 145

You can of course pick points that are the absolute peak which will show a decline. Looking at the graphs they look stable enough for 2 years

And yet if you look at Dublin in may 20 versus December 2018 you can see that prices have fallen since then - if Reversal stated Dublin prices have fallen since 2018 it wouldn't have been incorrect (which may be possible as many people focus on Dublin only on this forum) as the level of the index was 125.8 in December 2018 versus the 124.1. You are correct though that Dublin has been by and large flat for 2 to 3 years but is trending downwards at a glacial pace.

Whilst the raw data from the PPR is data that reflects the level of actual sales, it is not standardised like the CSO data - ie if there is a tonne of ornate mansions in D4 sold in one month and then a load of burnt out apartments in Leitrim the next month, the figures could paint a funny picture.

The CSO price index is the only show in town in my opinion, the June figures are due early next week.

Assetbacked · 15-08-2020 7:18am

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset-1.4329527?mode=amp.

McWilliams in today's IT going back to the property market, introducing the article with "Prepare for carnage in commercial property".

He talks about Ireland's commercial rents being substantially higher than other European cities and therefore one could conclude that they are "spectacularly overvalued". However, due to the huge increase in property values, yields are only 4%. He thinks that the move to WFH, accelerated by covid, will have a dramatic effect on commercial property values considering the cost of renting the commercial premises. There is also a comment about how retail in Dublin city centre is dead as Dublin does not have the vibrant city centre you would think when there's throngs of tourists and office workers as not a lot of people live in the city centre.

His grand conclusion;

The great reset will change the face of our cities.

With more people eventually living in the centre as a result of mass conversion from commercial to residential, the cities will become much more pleasant places to work, rest and play. Lower rents will facilitate quirkier, more unique retail, rather than boring big multiples.

Fewer cars will also change the atmosphere. Who knows, post-Covid-19, underground car parks might morph into underground clubs, giving the young a proper European-style nightlife.

Irish Life owns a large cohort of the buildings on Grafton St, presumably some pension money. I'd be pulling my cash of I had such a risky pension investment. https://www.irishlifecorporatebusiness.ie/irish-life-set-buy-its-19th-building-grafton-street

Wanderer78 · 15-08-2020 7:32am

Assetbacked wrote:

Irish Life owns a large cohort of the buildings on Grafton St, presumably some pension money. I'd be pulling my cash of I had such a risky pension investment.

Pensions are at risk anyway, most markets are becoming highly volitile nowadays, I can see his point regarding commercial property, that landscape has been changing dramatically for a long time now, covid has indeed accelerated it, but where will all those workers go? Will they all be re-employed somewhere else in the supply chain, maybe in amazon style warehouses, out of the city centres, in industrial estates, and if so, will they really move into the city, only to have commute out to work? All interesting questions, who knows what's gonna happen, mcwilliams could be right, who knows.....

ebayissues · 15-08-2020 8:35am

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset-1.4329527?mode=amp.

McWilliams in today's IT going back to the property market, introducing the article with "Prepare for carnage in commercial property".

He talks about Ireland's commercial rents being substantially higher than other European cities and therefore one could conclude that they are "spectacularly overvalued". However, due to the huge increase in property values, yields are only 4%. He thinks that the move to WFH, accelerated by covid, will have a dramatic effect on commercial property values considering the cost of renting the commercial premises. There is also a comment about how retail in Dublin city centre is dead as Dublin does not have the vibrant city centre you would think when there's throngs of tourists and office workers as not a lot of people live in the city centre.

His grand conclusion;

Irish Life owns a large cohort of the buildings on Grafton St, presumably some pension money. I'd be pulling my cash of I had such a risky pension investment. https://www.irishlifecorporatebusiness.ie/irish-life-set-buy-its-19th-building-grafton-street

I'm still not convinced that WFH will change drastically. if covid is here to stay maybe. but vaccinee hopefully should be out in 2yrs time and things will be back to normal. When this happens, WFH would be once/twice per week.

Do you think that its the existing office spaces that will be transformed to residential dwelling? How easy is it to do so?

The Belly · 15-08-2020 8:36am

ebayissues wrote: »

I'm still not convinced that WFH will change drastically. if covid is here to stay maybe. but vaccinee hopefully should be out in 2yrs time and things will be back to normal. When this happens, WFH would be once/twice per week.

Do you think that its the existing office spaces that will be transformed to residential dwelling? How easy is it to do so?

My guess is it will. But will take planning changes which will take time.

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 9:40am

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset-1.4329527?mode=amp.

McWilliams in today's IT going back to the property market, introducing the article with "Prepare for carnage in commercial property".

He talks about Ireland's commercial rents being substantially higher than other European cities and therefore one could conclude that they are "spectacularly overvalued". However, due to the huge increase in property values, yields are only 4%. He thinks that the move to WFH, accelerated by covid, will have a dramatic effect on commercial property values considering the cost of renting the commercial premises. There is also a comment about how retail in Dublin city centre is dead as Dublin does not have the vibrant city centre you would think when there's throngs of tourists and office workers as not a lot of people live in the city centre.

His grand conclusion;

Irish Life owns a large cohort of the buildings on Grafton St, presumably some pension money. I'd be pulling my cash of I had such a risky pension investment. https://www.irishlifecorporatebusiness.ie/irish-life-set-buy-its-19th-building-grafton-street

That doesn't bode well for all the Irish pensioners who were blocked from taking their money out of their pension funds back in January. They were meant to have sold their office building by this stage to meet the redemption requests. As many here will probably know, most other pension funds followed suit soon afterwards: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aviva-stops-investors-from-taking-money-out-of-irish-property-funds-1.4157574

Bass Reeves · 15-08-2020 9:42am

Converting commercial space to residential will not happen today or tomorrow. It will take 5+years if it started tomorrow. Even converting Georgian buildings that are office to residential would take 2-3years. Even then with Brexit issues will demand for existing office space hold if companies want an EU location.

McWilliams theory on massive changes in the structure and make up of the city center would take 15-20 years. Converting to different uses often costs as much as new builds. His theory on underground carparks being converted to night clubs is just a radical proposal to highlight change. Most car parks are.multistory anyway. Most have relatively low ceiling so if not used as CP they be knocked. McWilliams prediction would be more likely tocause more a slow 1-2% decline in rental and residential property prices over 20years than a sudden drop if it caused a drop at all as reconfiguration costs money as well

brisan · 15-08-2020 9:43am

Ush1 wrote: »

You get the location.

And location is the only thing you cannot change about a house

smurgen · 15-08-2020 9:56am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Converting commercial space to residential will not happen today or tomorrow. It will take 5+years if it started tomorrow. Even converting Georgian buildings that are office to residential would take 2-3years. Even then with Brexit issues will demand for existing office space hold if companies want an EU location.

McWilliams theory on massive changes in the structure and make up of the city center would take 15-20 years. Converting to different uses often costs as much as new builds. His theory on underground carparks being converted to night clubs is just a radical proposal to highlight change. Most car parks are.multistory anyway. Most have relatively low ceiling so if not used as CP they be knocked. McWilliams prediction would be more likely tocause more a slow 1-2% decline in rental and residential property prices over 20years than a sudden drop if it caused a drop at all as reconfiguration costs money as well

Not a hope. Commercial property in cork is gone. Can't believe the amount of vacant buildings in the city centre.

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 10:01am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Converting commercial space to residential will not happen today or tomorrow. It will take 5+years if it started tomorrow. Even converting Georgian buildings that are office to residential would take 2-3years. Even then with Brexit issues will demand for existing office space hold if companies want an EU location.

McWilliams theory on massive changes in the structure and make up of the city center would take 15-20 years. Converting to different uses often costs as much as new builds. His theory on underground carparks being converted to night clubs is just a radical proposal to highlight change. Most car parks are.multistory anyway. Most have relatively low ceiling so if not used as CP they be knocked. McWilliams prediction would be more likely tocause more a slow 1-2% decline in rental and residential property prices over 20years than a sudden drop if it caused a drop at all as reconfiguration costs money as well

I don't think the expected boost for office demand from Brexit is expected as the UK companies have already made their decisions and have mostly chosen locations in other EU countries at this stage.

This time last year, RTE reported that "We saw some banks moving offices but not the boost that was expected at all. Anecdotally, a number of jobs that did migrate to Dublin were filled from with the bank's network so there was no net gain for banking jobs here.": https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0722/1064429-job-vacancies-drop-brexit/

PropQueries · 15-08-2020 10:17am

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset-1.4329527?mode=amp.

McWilliams in today's IT going back to the property market, introducing the article with "Prepare for carnage in commercial property".

He talks about Ireland's commercial rents being substantially higher than other European cities and therefore one could conclude that they are "spectacularly overvalued". However, due to the huge increase in property values, yields are only 4%. He thinks that the move to WFH, accelerated by covid, will have a dramatic effect on commercial property values considering the cost of renting the commercial premises. There is also a comment about how retail in Dublin city centre is dead as Dublin does not have the vibrant city centre you would think when there's throngs of tourists and office workers as not a lot of people live in the city centre.

His grand conclusion;

Irish Life owns a large cohort of the buildings on Grafton St, presumably some pension money. I'd be pulling my cash of I had such a risky pension investment. https://www.irishlifecorporatebusiness.ie/irish-life-set-buy-its-19th-building-grafton-street

How will this impact the cohort of first-time buyers reliant on the bank of mom and dad for deposits?

If the parents pension fund is invested in property funds and their pension fund is now expected to worth much less than they thought and then the Government starts to take an ever bigger share of the family home under the fair deal scheme, which means little left for an actual inheritance, will the parents become more reluctant or unable to help out their kids going forward?

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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