Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

beauf · 17-09-2020 9:09pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

....Unfortunately, as the stats bare out, it is the low paid that have been affected by the pandemic. Everyone else is business as usual, apart from working from home and saving more money than usual. ...

People want to believe the low paid have equal access to property, and that no one has been uneffected or even done better out of the pandemic.

beauf · 17-09-2020 9:10pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Egyptian property? Worth a punt?

...Nah it's a pyramid scheme...

brisan · 17-09-2020 9:11pm

beauf wrote: »

People want to believe the low paid have equal access to property, and that no one has been uneffected or even done better out of the pandemic.

as I pointed out even someone on 30k losing their job takes 105k off any potential mortgage
Hell even a minimum wage of 20k takes 70k off a potential mortgage
If mortgage amounts drop is it not fair to say that will impact on prices.

Assetbacked · 17-09-2020 9:12pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/goal-to-build-35-000-homes-won-t-be-met-without-significant-changes-cif-1.4356583?mode=amp

Good to see among the covid hysteria, the CIF pre-budget submission (being reported in a national paper too) is seeking to put pressure on the government to get on with its single most important mandate from the last election; dramatically increase supply and make housing affordable.

hometruths · 17-09-2020 9:17pm

brisan wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lfs/labourforcesurveylfsquarter22020/

I have read it and cannot find the relevant section
Could you oblige and post the relevant section
Thanks

I can't find it either, was just about to post the same

beauf · 17-09-2020 9:19pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/goal-to-build-35-000-homes-won-t-be-met-without-significant-changes-cif-1.4356583?mode=amp

Good to see among the covid hysteria, the CIF pre-budget submission (being reported in a national paper too) is seeking to put pressure on the government to get on with its single most important mandate from the last election; dramatically increase supply and make housing affordable.

How long has lack of supply been a problem now. A decade?

Bubbaclaus · 17-09-2020 9:20pm

brisan wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lfs/labourforcesurveylfsquarter22020/

I have read it and cannot find the relevant section
Could you oblige and post the relevant section
Thanks

Looks like the data on the website version of the release doesn't have all the tables available (no idea why - EDIT you need to go to the StatBank and select the data you want yourself), but here is Dan O'Brien's tweet with the data:

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1298243714255654913?s=19

hometruths · 17-09-2020 9:21pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/goal-to-build-35-000-homes-won-t-be-met-without-significant-changes-cif-1.4356583?mode=amp

Good to see among the covid hysteria, the CIF pre-budget submission (being reported in a national paper too) is seeking to put pressure on the government to get on with its single most important mandate from the last election; dramatically increase supply and make housing affordable.

Interesting way they phrase it too, asking the government to:

"to support private demand thus enabling an increase in the supply of affordable housebuilding

beauf · 17-09-2020 9:21pm

brisan wrote: »

as I pointed out even someone on 30k losing their job takes 105k off any potential mortgage
Hell even a minimum wage of 20k takes 70k off a potential mortgage
If mortgage amounts drop is it not fair to say that will impact on prices.

I've never considered people on minimum wages buying property. I'm obviously doing something wrong.

beauf · 17-09-2020 9:25pm

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting way they phrase it too, asking the government to:

"to support private demand thus enabling an increase in the supply of affordable housebuilding

Last time some developers and builders survived by getting involved in public projects, schools and roads and things like that.

brisan · 17-09-2020 9:30pm

beauf wrote: »

I've never considered people on minimum wages buying property. I'm obviously doing something wrong.

On their own no
With another low paid worker ,in Dublin no ,outside of Dublin yes
However low paid workers do buy property with higher paid workers with whom they are in a relationship with
Taking their earnings out of the equation lessens the mortgage higher paid worker can jointly obtain

lower paid workers also pay rent
IF 100000 low paid workers lose their jobs and cannot afford rent ,what happens the rental properties ?
Lower their rents,thus lowering yield .thus lowering value.
Stay idle and become a negatively performing asset

hometruths · 17-09-2020 9:33pm

beauf wrote: »

Last time some developers and builders survived by getting involved in public projects, schools and roads and things like that.

Yes for sure, and to be honest I think if there is a serious downturn in construction the govt should engage developers directly to build housing and infrastructure, and pass cost savings on in affordable houses.

But what the developers are asking for is more help to buy type sweeteners so they can maintain their margins. It will simply cost housebuyers more.

brisan · 17-09-2020 9:34pm

beauf wrote: »

I've never considered people on minimum wages buying property. I'm obviously doing something wrong.

So no minimum wage worker owns a property either singly or jointly ???
Are they entitled to ??

brisan · 17-09-2020 9:35pm

schmittel wrote: »

Yes for sure, and to be honest I think if there is a serious downturn in construction the govt should engage developers directly to build housing and infrastructure, and pass cost savings on in affordable houses.

But what the developers are asking for is more help to buy type sweeteners so they can maintain their margins. It will simply cost housebuyers more.

As can be seen from the recent increase in the HTB scheme

Hubertj · 17-09-2020 9:39pm

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting way they phrase it too, asking the government to:

"to support private demand thus enabling an increase in the supply of affordable housebuilding

Whilst self serving they do make valid points around infrastructural improvements such as Irish water .

beauf · 17-09-2020 9:42pm

brisan wrote: »

So no minimum wage worker owns a property either singly or jointly ???
Are they entitled to ??

...and no one hasn't been uneffected or done better during the pandemic....

hometruths · 17-09-2020 9:47pm

brisan wrote: »

lower paid workers also pay rent
IF 100000 low paid workers lose their jobs and cannot afford rent ,what happens the rental properties ?
Lower their rents,thus lowering yield .thus lowering value.
Stay idle and become a negatively performing asset

It's rarely discussed in this thread but anecdotal evidence suggests rents are collapsing.

If rents drop longer term will have a knock on effect on the sales market in time.

brisan · 17-09-2020 9:48pm

beauf wrote: »

...and no one hasn't been uneffected or done better during the pandemic....

Of course they have
They may have got new jobs,but I doubt major pay increases were handed out during a pandemic .even in Tech Jobs
But that is not going to make property a lot dearer when 100k people lose their jobs

Pelezico · 17-09-2020 9:49pm

schmittel wrote: »

It's rarely discussed in this thread but anecdotal evidence suggests rents are collapsing.

If rents drop longer term will have a knock on effect on the sales market in time.

You mean people will have more capacity to save so house prices go up?

brisan · 17-09-2020 9:50pm

schmittel wrote: »

It's rarely discussed in this thread but anecdotal evidence suggests rents are collapsing.

If rents drop longer term will have a knock on effect on the sales market in time.

It is not discussed because its head in the sand for some people
Nothing to see here ,it will never happen ,cant happen here ,too little supply
And yet the Property Pin has a whole thread documenting rental price drops from 5-25%
On here they were just overpriced originally

hometruths · 17-09-2020 9:53pm

Pelezico wrote: »

You mean people will have more capacity to save so house prices go up?

Not quite what I was getting at!

brisan · 17-09-2020 9:56pm

schmittel wrote: »

Not quite what I was getting at!

I THINK the poster was been sarcastic
Some people will say with more savings and bigger deposits house prices will go up
Any excuse to deny the inevitable

Hubertj · 17-09-2020 9:58pm

schmittel wrote: »

It's rarely discussed in this thread but anecdotal evidence suggests rents are collapsing.

If rents drop longer term will have a knock on effect on the sales market in time.

Someone regularly posts on another thread monthly stats with asking rents for different types of property. I think it shows asking rents are down about 20% on some types of property and supply is up significantly. But it doesn’t show how many are being rented or how long they have been on the market so difficult to see how much activity there is.

beauf · 17-09-2020 10:00pm

brisan wrote: »

It is not discussed because its head in the sand for some people
Nothing to see here ,it will never happen ,cant happen here ,too little supply
And yet the Property Pin has a whole thread documenting rental price drops from 5-25%
On here they were just overpriced originally

People here expecting free rent. Posting about abundance supply in one thread then complaining about no supply in others. Rents in fee fall but too expensive. They stats are a conspiracy unless you can selectively Quote from them.

Very entertaining.

beauf · 17-09-2020 10:02pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Someone regularly posts on another thread monthly stats with asking rents for different types of property. I think it shows asking rents are down about 20% on some types of property and supply is up significantly. But it doesn’t show how many are being rented or how long they have been on the market so difficult to see how much activity there is.

Banning Airbnb fixed the supply crisis. Did you miss that. Homeless resolved at the stroke of a pen.

beauf · 17-09-2020 10:04pm

brisan wrote: »

I THINK the poster was been sarcastic
Some people will say with more savings and bigger deposits house prices will go up
Any excuse to deny the inevitable

The market is cyclical so both are correct.

Pelezico · 17-09-2020 10:05pm

beauf wrote: »

The market is cyclical so both are correct.

If rents collapse, why would people buy?

beauf · 17-09-2020 10:09pm

Pelezico wrote: »

If rents collapse, why would people buy?

They eventually go up.

thefridge2006 · 17-09-2020 10:13pm

I'll just leave this 2500 job losses right here for whoever it was saying that the covid crisis was only going to affect low paid workers who arent even in the market for a mortgage....... this is huge and only the start of it all

Fears for 2,500 jobs as Ulster Bank closure being considered

Ulster Bank made a loss of €276m for the first half of the year.

It has struggled to gain market share because of its small scale.

Ulster Bank got a bailout of €15bn (€16bn) from its British parent after the financial crash more than a decade ago. Much of this money came from British taxpayers.

It has since sold a number of mortgage accounts that are in arrears, cut jobs and has closed branches.

hometruths · 17-09-2020 10:14pm

brisan wrote: »

I THINK the poster was been sarcastic
Some people will say with more savings and bigger deposits house prices will go up
Any excuse to deny the inevitable

I sensed sarcasm but you can never be sure!

The last time I tried to discuss the impact of falling rents in this thread I was told that rental valuations and sales prices were completely separate with no impact on each other - 'decoupled' was the phrase used.

Something to do with landlords kicking tenants out if they lose their job.

I gave up discussing rents after that.

thefridge2006 · 17-09-2020 10:21pm

Graham wrote: »

They are still operating and providing jobs.

yes..... on support from the Gov....not providing for themselves

beauf · 17-09-2020 10:22pm

schmittel wrote: »

I sensed sarcasm but you can never be sure!

The last time I tried to discuss the impact of falling rents in this thread I was told that rental valuations and sales prices were completely separate with no impact on each other - 'decoupled' was the phrase used.

Something to do with landlords kicking tenants out if they lose their job.

I gave up discussing rents after that.

How quickly can LL evict. One year, two years? It doesn't seem like that would have any dramatic effect on anything. LL can't sell, can't re-rent with a tenant in situ even if not paying.

If rents fall. Many LLs cover the shortfall in rent. If the property becomes unviable it will be sold. But if you look at last time we banks didn't let people sell. They dragged it out and ruined everyone including themselves. They don't seem to have the same approach this time.

It will depend on how many people are over leveraged.

ExMachina1000 · 17-09-2020 10:24pm

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I'll just leave this 2500 job losses right here for whoever it was saying that the covid crisis was only going to affect low paid workers who arent even in the market for a mortgage....... this is huge and only the start of it all

Fears for 2,500 jobs as Ulster Bank closure being considered

Ulster Bank made a loss of €276m for the first half of the year.

It has struggled to gain market share because of its small scale.

Ulster Bank got a bailout of €15bn (€16bn) from its British parent after the financial crash more than a decade ago. Much of this money came from British taxpayers.

It has since sold a number of mortgage accounts that are in arrears, cut jobs and has closed branches.

Ulster bank may be sold off to other banks and lenders.
Jobs will be created /saved

Pelezico · 17-09-2020 10:24pm

beauf wrote: »

How quickly can LL evict. One year, two years? It doesn't seem like that would have any dramatic effect on anything. LL can't sell, can't re-rent with a tenant in situ even if not paying.

If rents fall. Many LLs cover the shortfall in rent. If the property becomes unviable it will be sold. But if you look at last time we banks didn't let people sell. They dragged it out and ruined everyone including themselves. They don't seem to have the same approach this time.

It will depend on how many people are over leveraged.

Do lads even bother paying rent any more? I know they dont concern themselves with mortgages.

AlmightyCushion · 17-09-2020 10:29pm

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Ulster bank may be sold off to other banks and lenders.
Jobs will be created /saved

If it gets sold off to another bank there will still be job losses. It's what usually happens at least.

pearcider · 17-09-2020 10:30pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Very good. As I said, there is no economic similarities between then and now. Yet I'm sure you will continue to compare anyway.

Yeah things are actually worse now. The banks are all bust due to low interest rates. Tourism, airlines, hotels, restaurants, huge employers that will all need to shrink by half at least. No end in sight to the pandemic either.

beauf · 17-09-2020 10:33pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Do lads even bother paying rent any more? I know they dont concern themselves with mortgages.

We'll find out when the rent arrears come due.

No handing the keys back in Ireland. You'll pay the mortgage and the interest eventually. The banks have proved they can get blood out of stone.

Assetbacked · 17-09-2020 10:38pm

beauf wrote: »

How long has lack of supply been a problem now. A decade?

Yes, close to a decade. There are only really 3 budgets for FF and FG to fix the mess, but this time FF and FG really need to have made decent progress or else neither could be looking at being in government after the next election.

Bubbaclaus · 17-09-2020 10:43pm

pearcider wrote: »

Yeah things are actually worse now. The banks are all bust due to low interest rates. Tourism, airlines, hotels, restaurants, huge employers that will all need to shrink by half at least. No end in sight to the pandemic either.

"The banks are all bust" is a tad misleading, wouldn't you agree?

Assetbacked · 17-09-2020 10:48pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Someone regularly posts on another thread monthly stats with asking rents for different types of property. I think it shows asking rents are down about 20% on some types of property and supply is up significantly. But it doesn’t show how many are being rented or how long they have been on the market so difficult to see how much activity there is.

There is a simple way to do some desktop research on that. Search for rentals on Daft in Dublin, under 2.5k, max 3 beds and sort by oldest ads. Then scroll through them. It might take a couple dozen pages of ads to go through but it will be obvious which ones are dead ads and which are still active.

I use under 2.5k as I don't see your average renters paying much more than that for a place.

Pelezico · 17-09-2020 10:50pm

beauf wrote: »

We'll find out when the rent arrears come due.

No handing the keys back in Ireland. You'll pay the mortgage and the interest eventually. The banks have proved they can get blood out of stone.

Nobody should bother paying rent nowadays. You cant be kicked out.

beauf · 17-09-2020 11:09pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Nobody should bother paying rent nowadays. You cant be kicked out.

In fairness there isn't a problem with the vast majority of rentals on either side. Not in normal times. Which is miracle consisting the state of the system. Remains to be seen what happens post Covid.

Cyrus · 17-09-2020 11:11pm

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I'll just leave this 2500 job losses right here for whoever it was saying that the covid crisis was only going to affect low paid workers who arent even in the market for a mortgage....... this is huge and only the start of it all

Fears for 2,500 jobs as Ulster Bank closure being considered

Ulster Bank made a loss of €276m for the first half of the year.

It has struggled to gain market share because of its small scale.

Ulster Bank got a bailout of €15bn (€16bn) from its British parent after the financial crash more than a decade ago. Much of this money came from British taxpayers.

It has since sold a number of mortgage accounts that are in arrears, cut jobs and has closed branches.

You think ulster banks problems started with Covid ?

bobbyy gee · 17-09-2020 11:11pm

banks have stopped lending

brisan · 17-09-2020 11:20pm

beauf wrote: »

How long has lack of supply been a problem now. A decade?

There was an oversupply in 2010

brisan · 17-09-2020 11:24pm

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Ulster bank may be sold off to other banks and lenders.
Jobs will be created /saved

Now that is delusional

brisan · 17-09-2020 11:30pm

Cyrus wrote: »

You think ulster banks problems started with Covid ?

No but Covid will put a stop to them
276 m loss in 6 months was the final nail in the coffin
It will all depend how well their mortgage book is performing
If they are heavily exposed to commercial mortgages they could find it very hard to sell at a good percentage of book value

thefridge2006 · 17-09-2020 11:30pm

Cyrus wrote: »

You think ulster banks problems started with Covid ?

No, but i doubt it would have happened if Covid-19 wasn't around...

"Ulster Bank made a loss of €276m for the first half of the year"

pearcider · 17-09-2020 11:31pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

"The banks are all bust" is a tad misleading, wouldn't you agree?

No I wouldn’t. They have no earnings and are sitting on huge losses facing this recession. You only have to look at their accounts. Look at the Euro Bank Stoxx Index. The Price to a Book ratio is at an all time low even lower than back during the Lehman crisis. There is no recovery for these lads they’re zombie banks only kept alive by the ECB. The question is for how long. When the next bailout comes for the banks, will the European taxpayers accept it?

beauf · 17-09-2020 11:38pm

brisan wrote: »

There was an oversupply in 2010

There was also undersupply. Since there was lack of demand in some areas and high demand in other areas and there was a mismatch between them. Hence the ghost estates in the middle of nowhere. The Bacon report mentioned supply issues in the 90s.

We don't seem to be able to provide a stable sustainable market. It's boom and bust everytime.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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