Spring 2018: General Discussion

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Very strange weather in the Cork area according to netweather. Its showing rain, sleet, snow AND freezing rain (please no) apperaring over the city.

It's not showing any snow over the city, and freezing rain isn't accurate, temperatures are too high.

The Netweather radar is useless with Freezing rain and hail, those categories simply don't work.

Casualsingby wrote: »

End of ECM toying with another Easterly. Really cold air in place. It couldn't happen again.. Could it?

It certainly could.

Less potent as the days go on due to sun strength.

Double

ECM 12z is..... yuck.

I stand by what I said about me being sick of the cold and snow. Like Gonzo said, Emma was a bit too much.

Don't mind it coming the end of November but not now. I am a snow bunny but there is a point where it becomes too much to do anything and that certainly was Emma.

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM 12z is..... yuck.

I stand by what I said about me being sick of the cold and snow. Like Gonzo said, Emma was a bit too much.

Don't mind it coming the end of November but not now. I am a snow bunny but there is a point where it becomes too much to do anything and that certainly was Emma.

Leave the hall:mad: Don't listen to him snow:pac:

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Even if we get a direct hit again the sun will be that bit stronger again and so we would require deep deep cold for it to be high impact weather. I wouldn't rule it out though...

I disagree, there have been a good few sunshine hours over the course of almost a full week and there are still feet of snow lying in places, albeit most of it now at that depth is walls that were formed by road clearing.

2 days ago we had 10cm fall in Kilkenny in an hour or two. (Does anyone know how long that stayed on the ground for, in places where anything from before had already thawed?)

If we got even half as bad a dose again, not even, it would still be disruptive. And to be honest while the blizzard conditions were fantastic to experience from a weather point of view, all of the societal issues like not being able to go to work, buy bread, even looting, plus all the damage to farms that came with it made it less enjoyable as a whole than a more "benign" period with deep cold, maybe 15cm of lying snow, and very little wind like in 2010.

Astronomical winter poking its nose in and saying, "I laugh at your seasonal definitions."

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Syran the beast will come after you with vengeance if you talk like that :pac:

I do understand how people are looking towards warmth now, I just don't think it's the form horse just yet. I also would be just as happy to see another mega snowfall, however unlikely

So be it, at least one group of people will be happy like yourself 'cause if it doesn't come, there is certainly no sign of warm and settled weather.

Cant afford another snow event .

Was well out of pocket due to lost work from last one.

Cmon mild ! Win out.

Surely the beast wont reach our East.

Id think it will reach Scotland and we will just be cold and frosty.

Let's look at the bigger picture for this potential second easterly.

The NAO is predicted to go closer to neutral or even positive a bit but this keeps getting delayed further or backdated as we get further to the timeframe. For the next week and a half, the NAO is expected to stay in its negative form albeit just relatively negative in between 0 to -1.5. This shows the Greenland high that retrogressed over to North America during the early part of March is still evident.

Parts of the eastern seaboard have had some notable snowfalls recently courtesy of classic nor'easters following on from a very warm spell during late February. This has tended to power up the Polar Jet for us bringing low pressure systems despite it being on a southerly track and the zonal winds being weaker than normal. After this cold and snowy start to March in contrast to the very warm late February in the eastern US, a warm up is expected during the middle of the month. This warm up is more focused on the middle swave of the US than the eastern seaboard but they will be at least much milder than they have been to say the least.

The Canadian Warming has yet to have its tropospheric response. Some say it already has with obliterating the Polar Vortex after the split from the major SSW. However, what makes me skeptical of this is that the impacts they speak of happened before 10 days and in fact, just under 7 days which is below the minimum point of impact from stratospheric events on the troposphere. There was also the third warming spike on Tuesday, February 27th which caused some complication for me. This dive into reversed zonal winds through mid to late March is expected to be the final warming of the season and if you ask me, is a tropospheric response to the Canadian Warming that occurred on 18th/19th February. Eurasia is expected to take a jump down in temperature courtesy of this, most notably eastern Europe. Unclear whether this will make it to the UK and Ireland on some models.

The MJO has shifted to phase 3 which according to experts is not good for cold.

The UKMO is now starting to hint at wintry potential in their long range forecasts.

The AO is quite similar to the NAO but around day 10 or so, there is a very large split between ensembles on if it will stay negative or positive. The majority stay neutral to negative but some ensembles go very positive.

ENSO still has a La Nina signature and the warm pool of SSTs that was developing in the eastern Equatorial Pacific seems to have weakened significantly now.

Quite a messy picture.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

There might be
There’s some nice spring warmth developing in Romania for example
Southerlies and southeasterlies here will get the temp back up
The latter would be relatively dry

What methodology shows this though? I'd love if it did.

Romania is far off from the Emerald Isle. We rarely get the same weather as England, never mind Romania :P.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/972549559372189697

Those who told the snow to feck off think again! The child of the beast wants to visit Ireland

kingshankly wrote: »

Why on earth do we want snow mid/late March it’s a bit of heat surely we need after a cold winter

Plenty of time for heat in May, June and July.

km79 wrote: »

Which we never get
I want to turn the heating off and stop burning money. I'd like to start cutting the lawn at some point too.
Ye had yere fun now it's time for the sun bunnies

What good is sun in March
06Z GFS is just not having the cold, keeping it entirely over Russia, whereas the 00Z had it over the UK (-10 Uppers) on the same time frame (12Z 18/03)