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Spring 2018: General Discussion

NAGDEFI

Emmm. Where to start.

It's going to be an 'unseasonable' start to the season:)

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Clonmel1000

Ah yeah that’s fair enough but for me this a nuisance I love the warm weather great for gardening beach sports etc. I always think of spring here from mid March on weather wise.

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

Once this snow thaws, I'd love this to happen:

March: Very cold and sunny
April: Very cold and sunny
May: Warm and sunny

If I remember correctly, March and May 2012 had a warm, sunny spell but relatively cold nights. That would be fine too.

Surprisingly, I thought back and realised that I'm good at chasing nice spells of weather when I'm going on holidays. I managed to spend a week in central London in March 2013 with ice days and and snow. Our flight was delayed by a good few hours. There was an exceptionally warm March (warm spell) over there a few years ago and I was there at the time too. I even saw a few thunderstorms in August 2014 there. This sounds crazy but I remember some time in late March or early April it was snowing in Dublin but it was mild/warm and sunny in London a few years ago.

If I go to London later in March or early April (probably won't), some nice, warn, sunny weather would be great.

A Spring like 2010 would do me any day! Very sunny with rarely a day without sunshine, March and April being some of the sunniest on record, very cold nights that made for comfortable sleeping, long dry spells in both March and April followed by what was one of my favourite warm spells of all-time, near late May 2010. I reached 27c on 23 May 2010. It was up to 16 hours of sunshine. Absolutely fantastic!

This Spring and May then was followed by what was my favourite June! Again plenty of sunshine, very warm but not hot - lots of days around 20c. When it was raining, it was lashing out of the heavens, not boring uneventful crap.

Are you seeing a pattern here? I love sunny months which 2010 was notable for! Every month in 2010 was sunnier than average (for most parts) bar July and no other year can compete with that for Ireland, even the likes of the other sunniest years such as 1955 or 1975.

To this day, I still try to find the words to say how good and special 2010 was to me and that no year can beat it. It wasn't all about the snow and cold! It was also about nostalgia, the childhood memories, the sun, things I did etc.

Knock Airport has been having some unusually dull conditions since 2014 and I think it's overdue a sunnier than average year like come on, the totals it has been having are ridiculous.

You can call me weird all you like but I have a strange liking for Winter 2011-12..... I know right :pac:. Why the hell would I like this Winter? It was dull. It was mild. It was wet for some. Seems like the definition of a "bad" Winter to me yet I like it for some reason. I do not know why :P.

I did love March 2012 but..... would I want to repeat it and have a Summer like 2012? No thank you.

Donegal Storm

I love heat as well and far prefer summer to winter overall (or at least the idea of summer) and I'm usually well fed up with the cold by now but the past few days have probably been the most memorable weather event I've ever experienced so no complaints. Definitely in the mood for a bit of warmth now though, hoping for a gradual thaw this week to minimise flooding then some nice calm sunny weather to get growth going. Hopefully lots of thundery showers as well, I don't think I've heard a single rumble of thunder since moving back to Ireland last summer

Late spring into June is probably my favourite time of year, the long bright evenings that are still getting longer, deep blue skies, nice convective cloudscapes and still an air of naive hope that we might have a good summer around the corner.

sryanbruen

Seems that this recovery in zonal wind speeds (that I've been speaking about for around 2 weeks now) is going to be weaker than expected and very temporary.

sryanbruen

However, MJO is going back to phase 1.

Artane2002

Spring 2010 sound like what the doctor ordered then. In fact, if we can have 2010-style conditions for the rest of the year that would be great in terms of sunny/warm and cold/snowy weather!

Dull and mild winter weather... please no! A mild, sunny, dry winter would be a bit interesting if we can't get some sort of cold weather.

Birdnuts

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Ah yeah that’s fair enough but for me this a nuisance I love the warm weather great for gardening beach sports etc. I always think of spring here from mid March on weather wise.

I'd much prefer the cold now and for the rest of the month if it mean't a warm May and a solid Summer - I believe our weather has a "quota" system when it comes to warm/cold spells

JCX BXC

Looks like quite a few convective showers developing over the country today, currently lashing here in West Clare making a good job of melting the remaining snow.

sryanbruen

Think I might have the rather dry part of my March prediction completely wrong already

. Record breaking wet start to March at Dublin Airport, even though it all fell as snow on the 1st, 2nd and overnight into the 3rd.

Clonmel1000

We’re starting to see the real cost of this springs “white gold” tonight. Water shortages farmers animals cut off schools closed no post roads in bits. What’s the medium term forecast?

Artane2002

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

We’re starting to see the real cost of this springs “white gold” tonight. Water shortages farmers animals cut off schools closed no post roads in bits. What’s the medium term forecast?

I hate to break this out to you but at the moment it looks wet and cold for the next two weeks. Further snow is a possibility at times too.

M.T. Cranium

Here's what I am expecting for the three months known as spring (maybe the astronomical timetable wasn't so bad after all ...)

This modified cold and damp regime will likely persist for the first three weeks of March, and will be followed by intervals of warmer weather with the risk of heavy rainfalls.

April will see at least one return to the blocking pattern and that may produce one more snowfall event in at least the western counties and Ulster. Later in April blocking will convert to a warmer southeasterly flow with some days reaching the low 20s. This will give a boost to agriculture likely to be weeks behind the normal schedule, and will help to dry out saturated ground.

May will bring some very warm weather at times, but this will break down to heavy rainfalls later in the month.

km79

^ that’s depressing

SleetAndSnow

Well, since we are now back to 'normal' and the weather thread has calmed down..

Today felt like the first Spring day in Cork (with some left over snowman balls). The sun was out and it was actually warm, the feeling of warmth on my face when walking around the place was so nice!

Ready for spring to come now, if its anything like today that would be great. (Lots of hurdles in the way though!)

Oscar Bravo

A beautiful spring afternoon here in Castlebar. Great drying in a moderate westerly wind. Nice spells of sunshine to.

sryanbruen

Stratosphere temperatures have gone up a bit again at 30hPa after a recent plunge in temperatures following Tuesday, February 27's warming spike. However, temperatures at 10hPa are bang on average right now.

I see that the atmosphere is in a huge mess at the moment with all the strange behaviour of the stratosphere. There is no Azores High. There is very weak blocking for us as it has retrogressed over to North America. Low pressure is all over the place. I think stratospheric effects on the troposphere are trying to come together but are struggling so with external factors impacting this solution like the west based negative NAO and some nor-easters taking place making the Polar Jet that bit more powerful regardless of it on a southerly track through Europe. I am trying to get my head around this incredible disorganised setup whilst at the same time trying to enjoy the current weather because it is a nice Spring day here!

For the model runs, there is no signs of any sort of stratospheric warming in the foreseeable future, in fact some cooling is expected to take place according to the GFS. See the below example for Thursday, March 15th on today's GFS 12z where there is a -60 isotherm appearing for the first time in weeks now.

What we know: The beast from the east was caused by the historical SSW event that occurred on 11th-13th February. This brought record breaking reversed zonal winds which propogated down into the troposphere and created a phenomenal easterly for late February and early March. This was the reason why I was so confident on an easterly taking place, the stratosphere. A week later after the initial major SSW splitting the Polar Vortex, a Canadian Warming occurred for the first time in February since stratospheric records began in 1950-51. This obliterated the Polar Vortex and stratosphere temperatures were well above average for quite a few days. This also caused the zonal winds to plunge again into reverse breaking records for the second time. However, it seemed too quick of a reaction from the troposphere to be showing the impacts of the Canadian Warming so some people believe that the effects of this warming event have yet to take place. According to the GFS ensembles (we have yet to see the ECM react to this), there is going to be a reverse of the zonal winds come the third week or so of March making me believe that another cold spell is around the corner except perhaps not what we classify as extreme. The zonal wind reversion is expected to be far less remarkable than the two reversions that have already taken place at the end of February.

What we don't know: We do not know the effects the Canadian Warming will have on the troposphere even with the reversed zonal winds expected due to this being the first ever Canadian Warming to take place in February since records began in 1950-51. We do not know when the effects will take place as ever with any stratospheric event.

NAGDEFI

Portlaoise was 9C today at 1pm but back home only 2C and very cold at 3pm. I think the amount of lying snow is causing the 7C differential. It's like a lot of latent heat is involved in the thaw, which is still slow. We usually have a 3C differential between home and Carlow town, Kilkenny city or Portlaoise.

Artane2002

Lovely early March day in Dublin 5. Unbroken sunshine and relatively chilly. Surprisingly, the sun had very little impact on the snow.

SleetAndSnow

Very strange weather in the Cork area according to netweather. Its showing rain, sleet, snow AND freezing rain (please no) apperaring over the city.

Rock Lesnar

Lovely day in the north east, sunny and slightly chilly most of the day, sky is clear now

JCX BXC

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Very strange weather in the Cork area according to netweather. Its showing rain, sleet, snow AND freezing rain (please no) apperaring over the city.

It's not showing any snow over the city, and freezing rain isn't accurate, temperatures are too high.

The Netweather radar is useless with Freezing rain and hail, those categories simply don't work.

SleetAndSnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

It's not showing any snow over the city, and freezing rain isn't accurate, temperatures are too high.

The Netweather radar is useless with Freezing rain and hail, those categories simply don't work.

Ah I meant the freezing rain part in general over Cork City and the rest being the county as a whole, bad wording. Good to know about the freezing rain thing, that could have been bad if it was accurate. Thanks

Gonzo

the past 2 days have been great here, mostly sunny and good drying conditions. Tonight is very chilly. From Sunday onwards it looks like were finally back into the double digits.

sryanbruen

Yesterday and today are the ideal days, lovely sunshine and pleasant feeling temperatures once you're not stuck in that breeze. Wish there were more like them.

Clonmel1000

Had a couple of sharp showers here today and fairly cold nice and bright though thankfully. Still a lot of snow lying about too.

Casualsingby

End of ECM toying with another Easterly. Really cold air in place. It couldn't happen again.. Could it?

LEIN

Casualsingby wrote: »

End of ECM toying with another Easterly. Really cold air in place. It couldn't happen again.. Could it?

It certainly could.

Less potent as the days go on due to sun strength.

JCX BXC

Last blob of our snowman melted this evening, was strange seeing snow and temperatures of 10c today.

jdcv94

Seeing as the jet stream is off on it's jolly boy's outing right now to Morocco with no signs of it returning on FI, what would this mean for our climate as we move into April/May? For arguments sake let's say the jet really likes it in Morocco and does not return in the near future and it's mid April. Would our climate have almost a Russian/Canadian effect where the snow/heat turns on it's head and we suddenly have Russian heat rather than cold?

George Sunsnow

jdcv94 wrote: »

Seeing as the jet stream is off on it's jolly boy's outing right now to Morocco with no signs of it returning on FI, what would this mean for our climate as we move into April/May? For arguments sake let's say the jet really likes it in Morocco and does not return in the near future and it's mid April. Would our climate have almost a Russian/Canadian effect where the snow/heat turns on it's head and we suddenly have Russian heat rather than cold?

We are too small too far west jutting into one of the worlds largest moisture sources unlike a continent
It would be a duller wetter summer with slow moving low pressure systems meandering in from the south,sticking around due to their lack of momentum as they’ve no jet power moving them along
Instead of looking to build ups of highs from the west,you’d need to look north or northeast for them and they in the rare event that they’d visited would be mainly blocked from us by the slow low procession from the south
So not a very nice scenario